The Citadel Preview: Big Man on Campus

The Citadel was 3-1 through their first four games. They beat VMI in the season opener, a nice solid win. They followed that up with a close loss to Air Force. Then they took out Montreat and Union, two non-D1s. So, the Bulldogs felt pretty good at 3-1.

Since that time, the Bulldogs have lost eight straight. They lost a home game to Radford, then six straight road games, then a home game to Western Carolina. The Citadel is 3-3 in McCalister Field House this year and 0-6 on the road.

The Bulldogs rely heavily on Mike Groselle. The 6-8 senior is averaging 14.4 points and 7.3 rebounds per contest. He is shooting 57.5% from the floor and 79.5% from the free throw line. Against Western Carolina, the Groselle scored 8 points and had just two rebounds. Against UNCG earlier in the year, he scored 20 points, but had just four rebounds. Groselle is a tough match-up for almost any SoCon team. He will be a challenge for the Mocs as well. He almost has to have a big game for the Bulldogs to have a chance. He has actually scored in single digits in two of the  last three games. He may be getting worn down from all the attention opponents are paying to him

PJ Horgan played his first game of the year agaist Western Carolina. He scored ten points and had eight rebounds. He could be an interesting character in this game. If he continues to play at that level, there is a chance that he could be a nice compliment to Groselle.

Mike Lawrence had started five games and was averaging 7.8 points per game, good for third on the team and was one of the Bulldogs better three point shooters. He did not play against Western Carolina, and it is unclear at this point whether or not he will participate in Thursday's game.

Matt Van Scyoc is the Bulldogs second best scorer and the best three point shooter. He's made 22 three pointers on the year, and is shooting 36.1% from three point range. He's averaging 9.5 points and 3.3 rebounder per contest. Marshall Harris III leads the team in assists with 4.6 per contest.

Dontay Hampton is back for the Mocs for his first action of the year. How he is worked into the rotation could be very interesting. It seems like Farad Cobb, Rico White, and even Gee McGhee are really settling into their roles at the point and the wing positions. Where does Hampton fit into that rotation? We'll start to see how that plays out in this one.

The Mocs offense has looked much more effective lately. The Citadel's defense? Not so much. Opponents are shooting 40.8% from three point range, good for 342nd in the country. Opponents are shooting 55.9% from two point range, good for 341st in the country. They are allowing opponents to shoot 57.9 eFG%, good for 345th in the country. There are only 347 teams in D1, so this is stunningly bad. The Mocs will need to focus on the offensive end and be patient. With Z Mason's ability to score inside, along with Cobb and McGhee starting to warm up from long range, and White and McGhee's ability to penetrate, this offense should be effective in this game.

The Bulldogs also turn the ball over a stunning 26.3% of their possessions, which is 341st in the country. This really hurts their ability to win games. Also, this team is not a particularly good rebounding team, and the Mocs are a very good rebounding team- one of the best in the SoCon.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs will outrebound the Bulldogs by a substantial amount.
--The Bulldogs will successfully slow the pace of the game down.
--Groselle will score 15 points and get eight rebounds. He's just due for a good game like that.
--Mason and Drazen Zlovaric will have very good nights in the lane for the Mocs scoring-wise.
--The Mocs offense will continue to be more productive like they have been in recent weeks.
--Mocs 67, The Citadel 58. The Mocs are far from being able to rest on their laurels and just show up and win. That being said, the Mocs are clearly the superior team right now. The Mocs are playing better on offense, and going against one of the worst defenses in the country. If the Mocs continue to show the effort and energy that helped them win four of their last five, the Mocs will win this one. If not, it could be a very disappointing loss. This is a young team, so not showing up is a possibility. Hampton will also play decently in his return, but will probably be limited to around ten minutes for now.

GO MOCS!