The Mocs and Bulldogs have had very similar resumes up until this point. The Mocs are 5-9. Samford is 3-11. Samford won their lone SoCon game to date. The Mocs lost theirs. So here they come, into a Saturday night game that is as big as it gets for two struggling teams. The winner can take a whole lot of positives as they move forward with their schedule. The loser will have to find a way to regroup.
Momentum. Confidence. The importance of this game can not be understated....for two teams trying to get something good to happen for their season. For two teams combined 8-20, it doesn't get much bigger.
Samford is lead by Freshman of the Year frontrunner Tim Williams. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding. He is averaging 14.4 points per game and 7.6 boards per contest. The 6-8 star in the making is shooting 52.4% from the floor. He's also a 68.5% shooter from the free throw stripe. There is just no good way to guard Williams at this point. Williams also has 21 blocks on the season.
Raijon Kelly is a 6-4 sophmore guard. He is second on the team in scoring with 14 points per game. He leads the team in assists with 3.6 per game. He has made 31 three pointers this year. He leads the team in that category, and also three point field goal percentage, at 43.7% on the season. He's only making 67.6% from the from the free throw line, which is very low for such a sharpshooter. Kelly has also committed 49 turnovers on the year, to go along with his 50 assists.
Clide Geffrard Jr. is also a freshman and averaging 9.1 points per game. He is also second on the team in rebounding with 4.5 per contest. Russell Wilson has also played twenty minutes per game, and has thirty turnovers and thirty assists on the season. Connor Miller is averaging 7.1 points per game.
The Bulldogs do not score much, but they actually are OK from the floor. They have shot over 47% in eFG. However, they have really been bad defensively. Opponents have a 53.8% eFG. They are allowing opponents to shoot 51.9% from two point range, and opponents are shooting 38.9% from three point range, which ranks 320th in the country. According to Pomeroy, their defensive efficiency rank is 342nd out of 347 teams.
Samford plays very slow paced. They are one of the twenty slowest teams in the country. They also are one of the forty worst rebounding teams in the country. With the way the Mocs rebound, this could be bad for the Bulldogs. Z Mason has been playing so well and Drazen Zlovaric is in a slump, but is starting to show signs of aggressiveness to break out of it. How will they be able to handle Williams? The Mocs offense has been showing strides lately of getting into a bit more of a rhythm. They should be able to continue to stay in a bit of a stride against the Bulldogs lagging defense.
The Bulldogs match up well with the Mocs, though. They like to score points from three point range and the Mocs like to give up points from there.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--The Mocs will outrebound Samford, but Williams and Geffrard will be very good on the glass.
--The Mocs offense will look more in sync again.
--Farad Cobb will struggle again from long range. In other words, his hot streak against Georgia Tech will not continue.
--Rico White will continue to look good, and Z Mason will keep on being Mr. Consistent.
--Kelly will make at least five threes.
--Samford 61, Mocs 60. The Bulldogs will have the home court advantage, and Williams and Kelly will each have huge games. Williams will score at least 15 points, and Kelly will put home at least 20. The Mocs won't be able to answer that. Gee McGhee will play allright, too. But the Mocs will come up one free throw short in the end in Birmingham, making next Thursday's game in Charleston almost a must win.
GO MOCS!
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