College of Charleston Preview: Uphill Battle

The Mocs have lost to Troy and Southeast Missouri at home. College of Charleston has beaten Baylor on the road.

So why should anyone believe the Mocs have a chance in winning in Charleston on Saturday afternoon?

There are multiple reasons. One is that last year on December 3, the Mocs walked into Charleston having started the year 2-5. No one thought the Mocs had a prayer of winning. The Mocs lead for the majority of the game, but fell double overtime to the Cougars, 87-85. The Mocs nearly won there with a team that did not win a road game all year. This year's team has already won three road games, including two SoCon road games.

Another reason for hope is that the Cougars have played six home games since December began, and are just 3-3 in those games. The first loss was a complete destruction at the hands of Louisville, 80-38. Then came the utter embarrassment of losing to Anderson (a non-D1), 65-49. They beat Old Dominion and Coastal Carolina in fine performances. Then they slipped by Furman last Saturday in a game that the Paladins outplayed the Cougars for the majority. Finally, on Thursday, the Cougars fell to Samford, 62-57. That's the same Samford team the Mocs beat on the road last Saturday night.

So what happens in this one? It's anyone's guess.

The Cougars have two glaring weaknesses at this point. One is their high number of turnovers. They rank 326th in the country in TO% according to Pomeroy, committing turnovers on 24.5% of possessions. They force turnovers just 16.4% of the time, which ranks 330th in the country. This means that the Cougars turn the ball over frequently, while not forcing turnovers often. This gets the Cougars offense out of rhythm, and causes a lot of the inconsistency on the offensive side of the ball.

The second major problem appears to be the health of Trent Wiedeman. He is one of the best players in the SoCon, and yet he has been severally limited in what he has been able to do. He played just eighteen total minutes against Furman and Samford. He has yet to score since his return, going 0-3 from the field and collecting four rebounds against Furman, while getting none against Samford. The Cougars need a third offensive option behind Andrew Lawrence and Adejhi Baru.

Not that there's anything wrong with having Lawrence and Baru as your main offensive options. Lawrence is showing why he is probably going to be an All SoCon performer at season's end. He's making nearly 55% of his two point shots on the year, and 39.4% from three point range. He is a very good shooter, and also leads the team with 3.8 assists per game. He is the critical piece to the Cougars offense at this point in time.

Baru is averaging an incredible nine rebounds per contest. He also is averaging 1.3 blocks per contest. Baru is 6-9 and was highly recruited coming out of high school. He has really upped his game this year. He is shooting 49% from the floor and averaging 9.8 points per game.

Anthony Stitt has been a solid third option for the Cougars, though he is no Wiedeman. He goes through long stretches of games where he really struggles. He's averaging 15.8 points per game in his last five games though. That being said, he scored just five against Samford last time out. He is averaging 11.2 points per game, along with 3.4 assists per game.

How will the Mocs match-up with Baru inside? Can Drazen Zlovaric or Z Mason help contain him? Will the Mocs be able get rebounds against the Cougars big man? It's something both teams do well. The team that wins the battle of the boards will have one edge.

The second key is how well the Cougars shoot from long range. So far, teams that have been successful against the Cougars have clogged up the lane and dared the Cougars to shoot threes, which they have missed frequently. This is the Mocs basic defense. The Mocs allow the second highest percentage of three pointers in the country. Teams make plenty against them. Will the Cougars start seeing their shots fall in this one? Or will they struggle from the floor?

The Mocs have been hot from three their last two games, making a total of 18 in their last two games. Does that continue  in this one?

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs and Cougars will wind up virtually even in rebounds.
--The Mocs continued offensive growth will be slowed a big by the Cougars defense.
--The Cougars Lawrence and Stitt will knock down several threes.
--Rico White, Farad Cobb, Dontay Hampton, and Gee McGhee will have decent performances.
--Z Mason and Drazen Zlovaric will not have their best performances.
--College of Charleston 68, Mocs 61. The Mocs have been playing with confidence, and that gives them a real chance in this one. The Cougars confidence has to be shaken right now. But something tells me that Lawrence will not let this Cougars team lose both games of this swing from the Western part of the SoCon. Cougars come up with the hard fought win.