UNCG Preview: And We're Back in the Game....Barely

I remember a movie from my college days, that I watched quite frequently. Some of the crowd may remember it. It was called 10 Things I Hate About You. It starred several people who later became famous for other movies, including Julia Stiles, the late Heath Ledger, and Joseph Gordon-Levitt. At one moment in the movie, Joseph Gordon-Levitt's character thinks that he has lost his chance at the girl he's after. Just she then kisses him and then runs off. He watches after her, in stunned silence, and then smiles and says, "And I'm back in the game!"

That's a little how I felt on Thursday night. (Opposite the teen hormones involved in the movie, of course.) The first thing I said when the game was over was, "And we're back in the game!" The Mocs are back in the race for third (and as someone pointed out on the Mocs message board today, technically even the second spot in the North). Can they get back to winning consistently? Are they really back in the game?

I would maintain yes- the Mocs are back in the game...barely. What better time for a blackout? The Mocs won their blackout game at home against Furman a year ago. The Mocs are looking for a similar result this time around at home against another team that is tied for first in the North against the Spartans. Can UNC-Greensboro come into McKenzie and pull off the win?

Yes. The Spartans can absolutely come in and win over the Mocs. They have won eight out of nine games, and are entertaining thoughts of advancing to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2001.

Back on January 19, Derrell Armstrong was just another player. Since that night, he has not been held to fewer than the 13 points he scored against Samford on Thursday night and had won two SoCon Player of the Week Awards. He's averaging 22.4 points per game over those last seven games, during which time the Spartans are 6-1. He's also averaging 6.8 rebounds per game during that time, along with three assists per game. He's shooting 47.7% from the floor. He's still not starting for the Spartans, but he is playing plenty of minutes. However, he has averaged 3.7 fouls per game during that same stretch.

It's probably no coincidence that Trevis Simpson has exploded as well during that stretch. He scored just five against the Mocs on January 19 and fouled out. In SoCon play, that is his lowest total by far- his next lowest point output is 12 against Western Carolina in December. In the six games since the Spartans last game against the Mocs, Simpson has averaged 23.5 points per game. He has scored no less than 23 in his last five games. Simpson has a chance to win SoCon Player of the Year. He has been that good. He is averaging 17.7 points per game. He's been brilliant.

The question for the Spartans is who else is going to score. Aloysius Henry has scored 11 points per game in the last three games and has averaged 6.7 rebounds per game in that time.

But when you look at season stats, seven players average between 4.8 points and 6.6 points per game. In other words, there may be no one player that lights it up consistently, but there are plenty of guys to be afraid of on this roster. Henry, Korey Van Dussen, Kyle Randall, David Williams, Nick Paulos, Aaron Brackett, and Drew Parker are those seven players. Which one of those is likely to go off on Saturday night and provide that third scorer that the Spartans need?

The Spartans like to play fast and frenetic. They play a little out of control. It serves them well, though it makes games real ugly to watch. The Mocs can fall into that rather easily. They like to play that pace. They are better served if they do not- particularly in this game. However, the odds seem to be that they will play that style of a game in this one, since that seems to be the style they most prefer to play, even if it is not the one most suited for them.

Z Mason is highly unlikely to play in this one. Jahmal Burroughs is back. We'll have to wait and see if he can play at the same level that he did on Thursday night in back-to-back games. Being without Mason changes the complexion of this game. The Mocs will not have the same advantage in the paint that they had the first time around. Drazen Zlovaric played well on Thursday night, and will need to continue that.

KEYS TO THE GAME

--Rebounding. The Mocs will struggle to have the edge on the glass in this one. They really just need to keep it respectable. The big thing will be giving up offensive rebounds in big moments- something that has plagued the Mocs all year long. If they can keep the Spartans off the offensive glass in critical moments, the Mocs can win.
--Hot shooting. Ricky Taylor and Omar Wattad were hot on Thursday night. They need to be hot again against the Spartans.
--Shutting down the third scorer. Look- it certainly true that Simpson and Armstrong can beat the Mocs between just the two of them scoring. But the Mocs best chance is to not let some one else go off for 20 points, while both of  them score around 20. The better chance is to let them both go off for aound 25-30, and shut down everyone else.
--Keegan. Bell played well on Thursday, even though the stats didn't really show it. Can he show up and play as a floor leader? Can he score when and if he needs to?
--Zlovaric and Burroughs. Those two played well on Thursday night, especially Burroughs making all the little plays. Those two will have their work cut out for them on Saturday night. They need to step up.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Simpson will score around 30 points, while Armstrong will score about 20.
--Wattad and Taylor will score plenty as well.
--Burroughs will play at the same level of energy (even if the stat sheet doesn't show it) as he did on Thursday.
--Henry will be an X Factor- one way or the other.
--Mocs 77, UNC-Greensboro 76. Very tough one, but the Mocs pull it out. The Mocs will make just enough plays down the stretch, like they were doing back in early January when they were still healthy. Should be an absolutely tremendous game, and will put the Mocs back in place for a real shot at third in the North.

Check out UNCGBasketballFan for the preview by the Spartan fan. He always does a great job with his previews and with his blog in general. Worth checking out.

GO MOCS!