If They Win The Tournament...Seeding Edition

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Everyone wants to know where their team will be seeded if they get into the Big Dance. It's brough a whole industry of Bracketologists to the forefront. The only way to get into the Tournament, more than likely, if you are from the SoCon is to win the tournament.

I'll spend some serious time analyzing the seed of whatever team wins the tournament- even providing you with my own version of Bracketology late Saturday night on the night before Selection Sunday. (If something changes, oh well- at least it's something.)

But here's a breakdown of what kind of seed every team should be expecting if they win the SoCon Tournament. This is based on RPI and the whole nine yards. It's also based on the idea that surprise teams win conference tournaments every year, so what looks like a surefire 16 seed right now may not be by this time ten days from now.

In alphabetical order:

Appalachian State- Play in game. This will become a common theme for many teams in the SoCon. The Mountaineers would have a losing overall record if they won the SoCon Tournament. That makes them unlikely to be anything but a play-in game participant. Though, I think you would have to admit that playing Omar Carter, Isaac Butts, and Andre Williamson in the first game would not be fun for a number one seed if they were playing well.

Charleston- 14. The Cougars are not in great shape right now, but if they find a way to win four games in four days, they will be one of the higher seeds for a SoCon team. They will own a win over Tennessee, which is looking better and better all the tie. They will possibly have beaten Davidson twice. They will have played Louisville very close on the road. The Cougars should be able to claw their way up to a 14 seed.

Chattanoooga- Play in game.  The Mocs are another team that no major team would particularly care to face in their first game, but would have to go the play in route. Keep in mind that the Mocs were ahead of Indiana late in the first half and hung within striking distance into the second half against Kentucky, plus played Tennessee and Butler very close. If the Mocs win four games in four days, it will mean that they finally put it all together for more than one game, and they have potential to be somewhat dangerous to a major team in the first round. But with their awful record, there is no way to avoid the play in game.

Citadel- Play in game. Well, Mike Groselle has been great, but it's hard to imagine that he would match up well against the nation's best. He's the only thing that would give the Bulldogs hope in the Tournament. But the Bulldogs are nowhere near getting out of the play in game.

Davidson- 13. The Wildcats own a win over a Kansas team that could easily be a number one seed. That alone bumps them up a seed line. That's why I don't understand people like Lunardi have them as a 15 seed. They are going to be a 14 without any problem, and I think a 12 or 13 is well within reach. Can you imagine being the two seed that draws a Davidson team that already beat Kansas? They would be furious. The Wildcats will earn the highest seed easily of any SoCon team if they win the tournament. I would not be surprised to see Davidson get a 12 seed with a tournament win.

Elon- 16. Call this a really wild hunch, but I think if the Phoenix win the tournament they avoid the play-in game. Their win over South Carolina nudges them out of the play-in game, especially if they beat Davidson and either Charleston or Wofford to win the tournament. This team has that one "quality" (yes, South Carolina is terrible, but an SEC team still) win that should be enough to bump them out of the games in Dayton.

Furman- Play in game. The Paladins would have a winning record if they won the SoCon Tournament, but I believe their lack of a true, quality out of conference win would keep them from being anywhere but the play in games in Dayton. They may have a bit of a beef, but not much of one. The diffference between Elon and Furman? The Phoenix beat South Carolina.

Georgia Southern- Play in game. The Eagles would have a winning record too if they won the SoCon Tournament, but with NO wins out of conference against D1 competition, it is really hard to see them getting anything except for a spot in Dayton in the play in game. If they had won a couple of out of conference games, they would probably be able to get a 16 seed. If they do get to the NCAA, look out. Their athleticism is through the roof. Their maturity and confidence? Not so much, but if they navigate the SoCon Tournament, no one should be eager to play them.

Samford- Play in game. No doubt the Bulldogs would be in the play in game. The losing record would not get them out of it. Princeton nearly took out a number one seed once running the same offense the Bulldogs run. Could Samford do the same thing? Probably not.

UNC-Greensboro- Play in game. This team's turnaround has been great, but they are not worthy of anything but the play in game. The Spartans, with a healthy Trevis Simpson and a hot Darelle Armstrong, would be dangerous against a number one seed, especially since they've already played (and played reasonably at times) against some pretty good teams.

Western Carolina- Play in game. This team would have a losing record if they won the SoCon Tournament. So a play in game would be in the cards. The Catamounts would be wildly outsized by any number one seed, too. They have a shot in the SoCon, but hard to see them being super-competitive in an NCAA Tournament game, but you never know.

Wofford- 15. Here's where the committee being human comes into play. Seeing the Terriers back in the tournament for the third straight year after playing well the first two times probably bumps them up a seed or two. They could get a 14 seed just for that reason. They are an interesting case for the tournament committee if they can get that far.

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