Davidson Preview: Reality Bites

Davison beat Chattanooga by one the last time around. That was in Chattanooga in a controversial finish. Well, it was kind of controversial, except that virtually everyone agrees that the foul called with under a second left on the Mocs was indeed a foul. Refs have swallowed their whistles in that circumstance before, but maybe the karma from the Marshall game last year caught up to the Mocs. That was all well and good.

The losses by the Mocs to Georgia Southern and Western Carolina since then undid any good that was done that night. The Mocs have another shot at Davidson on the road on Saturday afternoon, but reality is that the Wildcats are the best team in the SoCon and have been nearly untouchable at home. They have beaten their five SoCon opponents by an average of 22.2 points per game. Not exactly the type of place the Mocs should expect to break their road losing streak.

The Mocs have played at Indiana and at Kentucky on the year, so they should  not be intimidated. They played both early in the year when they were not playing as well as they are now, though they may have had more confidence then than they do now, strangely. The Mocs also lost both those games by 25.

Since the Mocs just played Davidson eight days ago (nine days on Saturday), it is hard to provide real analysis that should be earth shattering. The biggest difference in this game and the previous one is the Jahmal Burroughs and Z Mason, who scored a combined two points, and played a combined 28 minutes, are unlikely to  play on Saturday afternoon. Burroughs was injured in the first match-up with Davidson, when he pulled a hamstring, and Mason showed real signs of his knee injury in the first one. So maybe their loss won't be as serious as it seems at first glance.

The biggest question is how the Mocs defense will respond. They have played so poorly on the road because of their defensive struggles on the road. Davidson's offense is one of the best in the country. They average 78.5 points per game and are 18th in the country in scoring. They were held to 64 in their one point win in Chattanooga.

The good news for the Mocs is that Keegan Bell is starting to play better. The bad news is that Ricky Taylor is really struggling at the moment, and Drazen Zlovaric has been struggling on the road.

An interesting stat regarding Davidson is that Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks are the two leading scorers, scoring 13.9 points per game and 15.4, respectively. Yet, the play just 24 minutes per game and 22.8 minutes per game. The two leading minutes players for the Wildcats are JP Kuhlman with 31.8 minutes per game and Nik Cochran with 28.1 minutes per game. That has been a surprising stat to me throughout the year as I have watched the stats develop. While Cohen and Brooks are the leading scorers and sometimes the best players, it seems like Kuhlman and Cochran are the glue. That is shown by their minutes, but it also looks like it is true when the Wildcats play.

KEYS TO THE GAME

--Rebounding. Davidson is a good rebounding team. The Mocs can't rebound as well without Burroughs and Mason. The Mocs just need to keep this close to have any shot at keeping this one close.
--Taylor and Zlovaric. They've been struggling so much. If they get hot, the Mocs can stick around in this one.
--Cohen and Brooks. The Mocs did a great job in their first game against them. Can the Wildcats come up with a way to get them active in the offense?
--Home court. Davidson has been great at home. Chattanooga has been awful on the road. Can the Mocs overcome that? Can the Wildcats play like they have at Belk Arena?

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Bell will continue his improved play from recent games.
--Zlovaric will continue his poor play from recent road contests.
--Davidson will dominate the glass.
--Davidson 87, Mocs 71. This will be the Wildcats closest home game in SoCon play yet. That doesn't mean that the Mocs will be able to win this one. Davidson just plays too well at home and the Mocs just play too poorly on the road to pull it off. That being said, the Mocs have been playing games close enough that Davidson will not totally blow them out. The real measuring stick for the Mocs will be next week's two home games against UNCG and Elon.

GO MOCS!