Scanning the SoCon- Week Seventeen: The Tournament Edition

I invite you to check back daily and see the daily post on the SoCon Tournament. To see all the posts for the week, check out SoCon Tournament Central 2012. Also, play the SoCon Tourney Challenge. Should be a really exciting week of SoCon action.

DavidsonCats- Davidson fan.
MocsMania- Chattanooga fan.
TheSportsArsenal- Citadel fan.
UNCGBasketballFan- UNC-Greensboro fan.

SCHEDULE

Friday, March 2
College of Charleston vs. Appalachian State (11:30)
Western Carolina vs. The Citadel (2:00)
Samford vs. Furman (6:00)
Georgia Southern vs. Chattanooga (8:30)

Saturday, March 3
UNC-Greensboro vs. College of Charleston/Appalachian State (12:00)
Wofford vs. Western Carolina/The Citadel (2:30)
Davidson vs. Samford/Furman (6:00)
Elon vs. Georgia Southern/Chattanooga (8:30)

Sunday, March 4
Semifinal #1 (6:00)
Semifinal #2 (8:30)

Monday, March 5
Championship Game (9:00)

POWER RANKINGS

1) Davidson 48 (4)
2) Wofford 44
3) Georgia Southern 38
4) UNC-Greensboro 36
5t) College of Charleston 31
5t) Elon 31
7t) Furman 21
7t) Samford 21
9) Western Carolina 18
10) Appalachian State 12
11) Chattanooga 8
12) The Citadel 4

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team.

DavidsonCats- It was a great regular season for the Wildcats. They finished 22-7 with an RPI in the 60's and a conference record of 16-2. This week we saw dominating wins over Elon and GSU, the return of a healthy De'Mon Brooks, and defense and rebounding that were good enough to take care of business when the shooting was a little cold. We approach the tournament with an NIT bid in the pocket, but nobody wants to use it. Back-to-back losses in our opening game make me nervous about the tournament, but it looks like a great tournament awaits us in a fantastic location. Can't wait for the opening tip between ASU and CofC.

MocsMania- The Mocs disappointing loss to Furman that completed their quest to become Road Pacifists (the opposite of Road Warriors) frustrated all Moc fans, but Saturday night showed why Moc fans have had hope all season long. The seniors played very well, the defense was good enough, the team didn't turn the ball over, and suddenly they looked like a good team. The Mocs were up 15 on Samford with one minute left. Z Mason returned from injury this week. The Mocs started shooting better. Is that the beginning of something that carries over to Asheville? Can Mason be the difference? (In case anyone doesn't know, I think Z Mason could be a really solid  player in this league.) If the Mocs shoot well in Asheville, they can make noise. If they aren't shooting well, it's probably one and done.

TheSportsArsenal- The Citadel split its last two league games of the season, with a solid victory over Appalachian State followed by a disappointing loss to the College of Charleston. Turnovers, a problem throughout the season for the Bulldogs, were a key reason for the loss to the Cougars. Mike Groselle boarded like a demon in both games, adding two more double-doubles to his record. Now The Citadel will prepare for the SoCon tournament, an event that has bedeviled the program over the years.

UNCGBasketballFan- UNCG is limping into the tournament. Losses to Ga Southern, Wofford and Elon have soured what had turned into a great run by UNCG. Trevis Simpson has really not been the player he was over the last 2 months. He didn't play at all in the Elon game and wasn't very effective in the other 2 games. As a result the team is playing fully out of sync with guys trying to do more than they should on both ends of the court. It's not a recipe for a team that plans on making any kind of a run to the tournament championship. The good news is that UNCG still won their first ever outright SoCon divisional title. Quite impressive considering where the team was when the calender flipped to 2012.

Which team playing on Friday (outside of your team, so as not to jinx it) has the best chance to win the SoCon Tournament? Why?

DavidsonCats- CofC. Check out these numbers from live-rpi: They calculate that CofC has a 16.59% chance to win the auto-bid. The next best chance among Friday's teams is GSU at 3.61%. They also have CofC's RPI under 80 with a tournament championship. That's not bad, certainly no worry of a play-in game or a 16 seed if CofC is the representative. CofC is the most healthy that they've been in many weeks. Weideman is playing like a beast, Stitt is back, Lawrence has someone who can give him some rest, Nori Johnson is playing some great ball, and Antwaine Wiggins has been superb as a senior. They have a great shot, even though 4 games in 4 days is tough.

MocsMania- College of Charleston. The Cougars are clearly the best team playing on Friday. Ironically, there are four really talented teams playing on Friday- Charleston, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Chattanooga. The ironic thing is that they are all playing each other. Yes, Western Carolina-The Citadel and Samford-Furman will be interesting and they are tough match-ups. But Charleston is the most talented bunch, and with Anthony Stitt back from injury, the Cougars are a dangerous bunch. They won't have to play Davidson until the Championship Game, if they get that far- and I think they can.

TheSportsArsenal- The most talented team playing on Friday is the College of Charleston, so I suppose the CofC has the best shot. Anthony Stitt's return will help the Cougars. I also think the CofC got a favorable draw, with Davidson on the other side of the bracket and with both Friday's and Saturday's opponents (assuming the CofC prevails on Friday) being North division teams.

UNCGBasketballFan- I thought Charleston played well above it's head early in the year. After a middle of the year slump, I think they are starting to find their stride again. They have plenty of talent and it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a deep run.

Which team not playing on Friday (outside of your team, so as not to jinx it) is most likely to be upset early in the tournament? Why?

DavidsonCats- UNCG. They are struggling. ASU or CofC will be a very tough game for them. Or for anyone else. I'm glad that my favorite team drew the Samford/Furman winner instead of the ASU/CofC winner.

MocsMania- Elon. The Phoenix are clearly the most susceptible to an upset, though the Spartans could lose as well if Trevis Simpson is not fully healthy for UNCG. Elon played well on Saturday against UNCG, but have been struggling lately. They will need to play much better to advance in the tournament on Saturday night in the late game.

TheSportsArsenal- UNCG is the top seed in the North but could get the CofC on Saturday. I would favor the Cougars in that matchup.

UNCGBasketballFan- Elon. I'm not confident that any team from the North Division has a chance to really make a splash in Asheville.

What potential semifinals match-up would be most interesting?

DavidsonCats- Chattanooga/Furman and Citadel/ASU would be interesting. I like underdogs and upsets. Seeing 4 BBIT champs make it to Sunday would be fun. But I'll go with CofC/Wofford and Davidson/Chattanooga as the most interesting matchups. We'd have good crowds for both games. Byington trying a win a job. Shulman trying to avoid losing a job. Davidson trying to validate the great regular season. Chattanooga going from zero wins away from the Roundhouse this year to trying to win 3 or 4 in a row. Wofford trying to go back to back to back.

MocsMania- Honestly, Wofford against Charleston or UNCG would be pretty intriguing. The two time reigning champs trying to get back to their third consecutive title game would be tremendous, and those two teams are both good enough to beat the Terriers. On the other side, Davidson against Elon is probably the most interesting, since Matt Matheny used to coach for Davidson and now is the head coach at Elon. Those two teams are so similar, that a semifinal match-up might prove to be a bruising, interesting affair.

TheSportsArsenal- Wofford-CofC could be an interesting semifinal, if that matchup winds up happening. I don't see Davidson having a problem with any of its potential opponents on the other side of the bracket.

UNCGBasketballFan- I think UNCG-Wofford would be a fun game to watch. I thought last Tuesday's matchup would have been a very fun and competitive game. Then Trevis Simpson didn't play and UNCG seemed dissinterested. A Sunday night Asheville rematch with Simpson in the Spartan lineup could be fun to watch.

What player is the most likely breakout star of the tournament?

DavidsonCats- Give me Chris Czerapowicz. At times this season, he has looked like Davidson's best player. He had a recent stretch where he scored 91 points in 6 games. In the 2 wins this week, he only scored 8 points, but he grabbed 16 rebounds. If Davidson does well, I think Chris will go for big numbers and play well on defense.

MocsMania- I'm trying to go off the radar here, but I'm afraid that I'm staying right on the radar. If Wofford advances to the championship game, then we all know about Kevin Giltner and Brad Loesing. But Karl Cochran is still not a household name around the SoCon. The freshman is the most important player the Terriers have, in my opinion. He's not their best three point shooter- but the Terriers are a different team when he is hitting from three. Giltner shoots more for a higher percentage, but Cochran is the juice on this team. If Wofford is in the championship game, you can bet that Cochran will have had at least one if not two really solid performances.

TheSportsArsenal- I don't know about a breakout star, but if the idea is for some relative unknown to have a big tournament, I'll go with somebody getting hot from 3-land whose team will play several tourney games. Davidson's Chris Czerapowicz will be my "pick to click".

UNCGBasketballFan- I'm gonna go with an unlikely star on a the likely winning team. Davidson's Chris Czerapowicz. For Davidson to win the championship, they will need to hit their 3 point shots better than they have over the past few games. Czerapowicz is a very good shooter and I think has the ability to carry the Wildcats if Brooks or Cohen find themselves in foul trouble in Asheville.