John Denver sang, "Country roads, take me home, to the place, I belong."
Oh, how the Mocs wish that every road game could be like a home game.
The Mocs have not won on the road yet this year. Yes, they have put up some spirited fights on the road, but they have not won any of them.
Will this finally be the game where they snap out of it?
It's going to be a strange game. Ike Butts was suspended the first time the Mountaineers played the Mocs. Omar Wattad was out for the Mocs with an injury. That was Ricky Taylor's first game with a wrist injury that now seems to be doing much better. Dontay Hampton hit the game winning shot, and he is unlikely to play after taking a hard hit to the head against UNCG. Z Mason will be back for his first game in quite a while.
So, with all the moving parts, the first match-up can almost be thrown out the window for comparisons sake.
All that being said, the Mocs have been reeling, winning just three of eleven since their last meeting. The Mountaineers have won just four of eleven since that night in Chattanooga.
The Mountaineers are a strange team. Omar Carter and Ike Butts, popularly considered the Mountaineers two best players, do not start anymore. Carter has not scored in double digits since January 28. In the five games since then, he has averaged 5.2 points per game...and the Mountaineers have gone 1-4, with their lone win coming in the game he scored the most points during that stretch (eight against Furman). He played just 17 minutes in the two point loss to Wofford. That was not due to foul trouble either (he had no fouls). That's right- the preseason SoCon Player of the Year now is really struggling. He is still the team's leading scorer on the year with 12.1 points per game, but he has not been himself.
Since Butts came back from his suspension, he has averaged 6.6 points per game as the Mountaineers have gone 3-7. He's played over 17 minutes just three times since returning, after only playing seventeen minutes or fewer just once before the suspension. He also is averaging 4.8 rebounds per game, during that stretch, which is good, until you realize that most of that has been done in a handful of games. He has had one or two rebounds in four games since returning.
So who is playing well? Andre Williamson has scored ten points in each of the last two games, but had not scored in double digits for the four games prior to that. Mike Neal has scored 15 and 18 in the last two games, but he has only scored in double digits in three other SoCon games this year. Jamaal Trice is averaging in double figures, but has not scored in double figures in five games. Nathan Healy is averaging 11.0 points per game in the last five games. Tab Hamilton scored 22 against the Mocs in their last meeting, but in his last eleven games has not scored in double digits in eight of them. His high point output since that night is 11. His high point production other than the Mocs game for the year was when he scored 12 against Samford the Thursday before the Mocs game.
In other words, there are plenty of dangerous scorers, but none that are consistently playing well. Andrew Williamson is second in the SoCon in field goal percentage at 58.8% and fifth in rebounding at 7.0 per game. The Mountaineers are being outrebounded in conference games by just one per game.
Can the Mocs come up with the road win? Possibly. They will need to play solid defense, and hope that Burroughs and Mason are able to play at full force. The Mocs need to hit shots. They have not been hitting shots lately, particularly in key situations. This is huge game for the Mocs. Two wins this week would put the Mocs in fourth place and keep them within striking distance of Samford for the 3N.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs are a better rebounding team than the Mountaineers. Can Butts and Williamson make a difference on the boards? Or will the return of Mason and Burroughs give the Mocs the edge inside with Drazen Zlovaric?
--Who cares less? Appalachian State looked completely disinterested in their blowout loss to Elon a week and a half ago. Since then, they have played much better. The Mocs have not shown any signs of quitting yet. If the Mocs still have an interest in playing, they can win this game. If Appalachian State comes out like they did against Elon, the Mocs could win by a lot. If they play like they are capable, it will be a tough hard fought game.
--Mason. How much impact does he have on a game?
--Wattad. When he was out against Appy, the Mocs did not have a huge scorer. Taylor played well, and Keegan Bell made a huge three. Can Wattad make a difference?
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Carter and Butts will play their best games in a while, combining for over 20 points.
--Mason will make a big difference inside, providing the Mocs some much needed presence in the paint.
--Wattad will make several big shots.
--Hamilton will not score 22 this time around.
--The game will be a low scoring war to the finish. Neither team will quit.
--Appalachian State 68, Mocs 67. The Mocs will have every opportunity to win at the end, but the Mountaineers will pull it out in the end. There is a sense that the Mocs are going to win a road game and pull off a road upset, but I'm not sure if they have it. I have a feeling that they can, but I can't pull my itchy trigger finger on it. Carter makes a big shot late to give the Mountaineers the win.
GO MOCS!
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