Wow. Just a few weeks ago, no one could have seen this match-up coming as a huge game. But here it is- and it just about could not get any bigger.
The Spartans and Mountaineers are both 4-4 in SoCon play. They sit one half game behind Elon and one half game ahead of Western Carolina. Those two face off on Thurday night as well in Cullowhee. In other words, the winner of this game could certainly find themselves in first place in the North by the end of the night. The loser could find themselves in fourth.
Since Ike Butts came back, he has been wildly inconsistent. He has played 52 minutes. Against Davidson in his return, he played 21 minutes, and scored 10 points and had nine rebounds. Against Wofford, he played seventeen minutes, scored zero points with just two rebounds. He only took one shot. Then against Western Carolina over the weekend, he scored eleven points and had four rebounds in fourteen minutes. So which Ike Butts shows up against the Spartans?
Omar Carter has been equally inconsistent. The preseason SoCon Player of the Year has scored in single digits four times in the last ten games- two of those against SoCon foes (Furman and Wofford). Carter has to play better for the Mountaineers to reach their full potential.
Tab Hamilton went off for 22 against the Mocs, but has not even made it to double digits since then.
The Mountaineers had major problems turning the ball over early in the year, but have gotten much better at protecting the ball recently. They turned it over just 14 times against Western Carolina and six times against Wofford. They have not gotten much better at shooting free throws. They are a poor free throw shooting team. They did make 30 of 36 against Western Carolina.
Omar Carter and Ike Butts did not start against Western Carolina. Butts has not started since his return. Carter? Who knows? He still played 30 minutes against the Catamounts.
The Spartans have suddenly won four straight games against College of Charleston, The Citadel, Chattanooga, and Samford. Derrell Armstrong is the reigning SoCon Player of the Week. He averaged 28 points per game last week, scoring 29 and 27. Can he remain that hot? Can he keep on producing at that high of a level? If he can, then the Spartans become a very dangerous team against anyone left on their schedule. If he can not, they will rely heavily on their other scorers.
Who are the Spartans other scorers? That begins and ends with Trevis Simpson. He is underrated and should be considered a darkhorse for SoCon Player of the Year. Can he continue to produce at such a high level? He scored just 20 points total over the weekend that Armstrong was going off. But he has proven that he is capable of putting up huge numbers time and again. I expect him to get back to his scoring ways in this game.
The Spartans have really picked up the pace since Wes Miller took over. They like to play fast and frenetic. They have been much more effective since he took over and are playing with a world of confidence.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Home court advantage? Look- the Coliseum has not been a source of a big home court advantage to UNCG over the last several years. The Spartans have really promoted this game- let's see if the fans turn out to get behind them here.
--Rebounding. The teams are very similar in their rebounding statistics. Which team outrebounds the other and wins the subtle edge?
--Butts. He can be as dominant as any player in the SoCon when he is motivated. He has not been truly motivated in a while. Can he be motivated in this one?
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Simpson and Armstrong will combine for 35 points.
--Butts will not play well.
--Carter will play well. He will score 20 points.
--UNCG 77, Appalachian State 71. The Spartans have played much better on Thursdays than on the weekend the last two weekends, even though they have won all four games. The Spartans show up well on another Thursday, the crowd is in full force for them, and the Spartans come up with the thrilling W- and take over first place in the North, if only for a while. (Yes- that was also a prediction that Elon would lose to Western Carolina. Call it a bonus pick.)
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