Sunday, January 22, 2012

Scanning the SoCon- Week Twelve

DavidsonCats- Davidson Wildcats fan.
MocsMania- Chattanooga Mocs fan.
TheSportsArsenal- Citadel Bulldogs fan.
UNCGBasketballFan- UNC-Greensboro Spartans fan.

SCHEDULE

Monday, January 23
The Citadel at Georgia Southern

Thursday, January 26
Elon at Western Carolina
Davidson at Chattanooga
Appalachian State at UNC-Greensboro
Wofford at The Citadel
Georgia Southern at Samford (ESPN3)
Furman at College of Charleston (ESPN3)

Saturday, January 28
Elon at Appalachian State
Western Carolina at UNC-Greensboro
Wofford at College of Charleston (ESPN3)
Davidson at Samford
Georgia Southern at Chattanooga
Furman at The Citadel

POWER RANKINGS

1) Davidson 48 (4)
2) Wofford 41
3) College of Charleston 37
4) Appalachian State 33
5t) Elon 29
5t) Georgia Southern 29
7) Western Carolina 28
8t) Chattanooga 18
8t) UNC-Greensboro 18
10) Furman 16
11) Samford 8
12) The Citadel 5

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team.

DavidsonCats- Clint Mann missed this week's games. Frank Ben-Eze responded to the opportunity by thrilling the crowd with his performance. Prior to the CofC game, he'd had 2 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 blocks in his senior season. He had 6, 5, and 5 against the Cougars and followed it up with 3, 3, and 2 against The Citadel. Davidson trailed CofC 2-0 and never trailed The Citadel. I don't think I've ever seen a 30-2 lead. It is hard to believe that The Citadel destroyed Davidson last year at our place. They were up 46-24 at halftime and the Wildcats were simply not competitive. There are many reasons why Davidson is playing such better ball this year. The most obvious one right now is the play of Jake Cohen. In his first 2 seasons, Jake had 6 games where he scored 20+ points. He went for 22 and 26 against Richmond and Wofford earlier this year to bring the total to 8 games. And now he's done it 5 games in a row, totaling 125 points and collecting 2 (probably 3) Player of the Week awards.
MocsMania- The Mocs are bumbling on the road. They just can't win on the road right now. Keegan Bell is really struggling and seems to have lost total confidence in his shot at this point. He played much better against Elon. The defense that had been keeping them in games suddenly betrayed the Mocs on the road, allowing 83.3 points per game in their three game road trip. Things are getting really interesting in Chattanooga. This week Davidson and Georgia Southern come calling- two of the better teams in the league. If the Mocs go 2-0, then a lot can be forgiven. If they go 1-1, then most can be forgiven. At 0-2, the Mocs will be in full tailspin mode.

TheSportsArsenal- The Citadel's only game of the week (it plays Georgia Southern on Monday night) was a terrible 80-51 loss at Davidson in which nothing went right (or in the basket) for the first 15 minutes of the contest. Next week the Bulldogs will play three games. After the Monday game at GSU, The Citadel will host Wofford and Furman. Someone besides Mike Groselle is going to have to provide some offense for the Bulldogs, and the team as a unit must improve defensively, for The Citadel to have a chance in any of those games. Having said that, as poorly as the Bulldogs played on Saturday (and so far this season), I wouldn't be surprised if The Citadel wins at least once this week. No team other than Davidson (and perhaps Wofford) has been consistent enough to avoid an upset loss in league play.

UNCGBasketballFan- The Spartans have made a dramatic turn around from a team that seemed to have no idea how to close a game out to one that takes advantage of every opportunity to win. The even stranger part is that it has only taken two weeks. This week, UNCG seemed on cruise control versus the free falling UTC Mocs and then managed to win while looking awful against Samford. Both wins came at home, a place UNCG hasn't really played well over the last three seasons. This week UNCG won on the strength of it's bench players. Derrell Armstrong had an outstanding weekend. After a 29 point, 5 rebounds, 4 assist night against Chattanooga, Armstrong followed up 27 points and 5 rebounds against Samford. Up next is a Thursday-Saturday rematch with App State and WCU. It'll take more wins to keep UNCG in the race for a North Division bye.
 
Which game are you most looking forward to that does not involve your team?

DavidsonCats-  I want to know who is going to win the North. I think ASU is the best team in that division, so I'm eager to see how they do at UNCG and against Elon.

MocsMania- I'm going with Thursday's battle between Appalachian State and UNCG. The winner of this game will have a leg up on at least a bye from the North, and possibly on the whole North division. Both teams are 4-4 in SoCon play. The winner jumps out in front. I think this should be a great game, and it will tell us a lot about both teams, who are trying to make runs at the North division title.

UNCGBasketballFan- I'm going to go a little off the grid with this one, but I'm interested in seeing the outcome of Ga Southern playing at Chattanooga. Their first meeting was a bit of head scratcher when the favored Mocs were upset. But this game with be played at the Roundhouse, a place where UTC has played well. The Mocs will need to win this one if they really are trying to position themselves for a bye from the North.

Which team will be the first to beat Davidson in SoCon play, or will they go undefeated heading into the SoCon Tournament?

DavidsonCats- The folks at rpiforecast figure that the Wildcats will most likely lose 1 or 2 conference games. Starting the year, I thought the Wildcats would lose around 6 conference games. I keep adjusting that as the team continues to improve. The Wildcats are 8-0 but have only played 3 road games. I expect to win the home games. If the Wildcats win the home games and split the road games, that would win the division. The scariest remaining games to me are at Chattanooga, at CofC, and at GSU. The Wildcats need to win the remaining games in January to get the best possible Bracket Buster game. I apologize for dancing all around the question, but I'm not willing to pick against Davidson in any one particular game and I'm certainly not interested in predicting an undefeated conference regular season.

MocsMania- I think Davidson loses one SoCon game before the tournament- but just one. It could be this Thursday at Chattanooga, or it could be at Georgia Southern on February 25 in the regular season finale. But, most likely, it will be at College of Charleston on February 11. The Cougars have quite possibly the best talent in the league, and the Wildcats could certainly struggle in a game that will be critical to the Cougars chances of getting a bye out of the South.

TheSportsArsenal- Davidson should be favored in every game it plays in the league going forward. Having said that, while I don't feel confident in picking any particular team to beat the Wildcats (including the CofC in Charleston), I don't think Davidson runs the table, simply because the odds are against it. There are too many games left, and thus too many chances for the Wildcats to have a bad night.

UNCGBasketballFan- I think they're going undefeated. That team just has too many weapons and runs it's system very well. If there's a trip up game for them, I'd expect Charleston to give them their best shot when they play them in the return game there. However, I don't see them losing that game either.

Which team on the rise has the best chance to earn a bye in the North- Samford or UNCG?

DavidsonCats- I guess UNCG has a better chance than Samford, but I don't think it is a very good chance. I still expect them to both play on March 2.

MocsMania- I would be pretty surprised if Samford would be able to continue their recent hot play and actually earn a bye in the SoCon North. They could do it, but it would surprise me. UNCG would not particularly surprise me. Preseason, I expected the Spartans to contend for a bye in the North, and possibly even get one. Their early season play convinced me that I was wrong about them. But in the last two weeks, they have gone 4-0. I think with their new found confidence, and the lack of even one (much less two) dominant teams in the North, I think the Spartans may have to even be considered a favorite to get one of the two byes from the North.

TheSportsArsenal- I would say that I don't favor either Samford or UNCG to get a bye, but in the North I suppose anything's possible. If I had to pick one I would take UNCG because I think its remaining schedule gives it a slight advantage.

UNCGBasketballFan- With a now 2 game lead on Samford (in the win column) I think UNCG has a better chance to earn a bye. However, I think if the Spartans are really going to get a bye, it's gonna require them to win at least 3 of their 5 in division games left on their schedule (WCU, ASU at home & SU, Elon, UTC on the road).

Which arena is the toughest for a visiting team to play in?

DavidsonCats- Belk Arena at Davidson. And it is going to get harder. Fan support and enthusiasm are building. Some of the newer fans were spoiled by the Curry years and are slow to appreciate how good the 2011-12 Wildcats are. We were just 12-6 at home against conference opponents in the last two seasons, but we're 5-0 so far this year. And we've won 15 of the last 16 games at Belk overall. Historically, the hardest place to win in the Southern is the Roundhouse. The Wildcats were winless there for many years and are just 6-17 there against the Mocs. And we all remember how bad the Wildcats are there in the Southern Conference tournament. It has been our house of horrors.

MocsMania-
Yes, McKenzie Arena in Chattanooga is not easy, and Belk Arena at Davidson is a tough place to play. TD Belk Arena at College of Charleston is not an easy place to win either. But the two that stand out to me for whatever reason are Western Carolina's Ramsey Center, where they almost never seem to lose, even if they are just a decent team, and Alumni Gym at Elon. The Phoenix gym is very small and really seems to create problems for opposing teams when they go in there. Again, that team doesn't always have the most talent, but it is a really tricky place to play.

TheSportsArsenal- For the Socon, the toughest arena to play in is the home arena of the best team in a given season. I don't believe the league has a real "oh, nobody can win there" place.

UNCGBasketballFan- I'm going to go with Wofford's Ben Johnson Arena. That place is tiny by high school standards and just has a very strange feel to it. I've only seen one game there and I repeatedly asked my traveling companion if that court was regulation size b/c it just looked small. I'm assuming that if it was even close to full for a gmae there that it would be very intimidating.
 

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