Monday, December 26, 2011

Scanning the SoCon- Week Eight

Five questions, four guys, three struggling teams, two weeks until conference play, and one fun conference to cover.

DavidsonCats- Davidson fan.
MocsMania- Chattanooga fan.
TheSportsArsenal- Citadel fan.
UNCGBasketballFan- UNCG fan.

SCHEDULE

Wednesday, December 28
UNC-Asheville at Western Carolina
Wofford at South Carolina
Samford at Sam Houston State

Thursday, December 29
Longwood at Chattanooga (Dr Pepper Classic)
The Citadel at Tennessee
Elon at North Carolina
Penn at Davidson

Friday, December 30
TBA at Chattanooga (Dr Pepper Classic)
UNC-Greensboro at Richmond
Furman at UNC-Wilmington
Appalachian State at Miami, FL
George Mason at College of Charleston
Georgia Southern at Auburn

Saturday, December 31
Samford at Maryland
Western Carolina at North Carolina State

POWER RANKINGS

1t) College of Charleston 46 (2)
1t) Davidson 46 (2)
3) Elon 37
4) Western Carolina 34
5) Wofford 33
6) Furman 27
7) Appalachian State 26
8) Georgia Southern 21
9) Chattanooga 18
10) Samford 9
11) The Citadel 8
12) UNC-Greensboro 7

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team.

DavidsonCats-  Davidson is now 7-4. Losses are at Duke, at UMass, at Charlotte, and home to Vandy. The Wildcats have four home wins (Furman, Richmond, Presby, and Guilford) and three road wins (Wofford, UNCW, and Kansas). I'm very happy with that. The Wildcats were picked by many to win the South this year. Not by me. I thought they'd be 2nd to CofC and the 4th or 5th best team overall in the conference. I still expect several of the North teams to improve sharply, but I'm not sure they'll pass the Wildcats. De'Mon Brooks is having a superb season. Tyler Kalinoski is coming along quickly and will be an impact player in the conference season. The Wildcats have just one game (home against Penn on the 29th) in the next two weeks. That gives the coaches plenty of time to get the team ready for conference play in January.

MocsMania- The Mocs played Hiwassee last week. Of course, it didn't mean a whole lot because they were playing Hiwassee. This week, the Mocs will play in the Dr Pepper Classic against two other mid-majors. This will go a long way to determining just how good the Mocs will be this year. It's really time to figure it out.

TheSportsArsenal- The Citadel's one game this past week was a 70-58 loss at Denver. The defense was again problematic, and the Bulldogs also suffered from an epidemic of turnovers late in the first half, leading to a huge run by the Pioneers that basically iced the game. The Citadel played better in the second half, but it's hard to tell whether that was improved play by the Bulldogs or Denver coasting with a big lead. Still, it wasn't a terrible performance, as the Pioneers look to be a very solid outfit. This week The Citadel plays at Tennessee and also hosts non-D1 Virginia-Wise, the latter a must-win for the Bulldogs

UNCGBasketballFan- Even though UNCG didn't break through with any landmark victories this week, it was a decent week for a Spartan team that has had a bunch of outside distractions recently. The week started with a trip to Cameron Indoor. UNCG took the fight to the #7 team in the country for the entire first half before finding out why they were ranked that high. Thursday night, UNCG had a bad 4 minute stretch against VCU's press and it cost them the game. However, Coach Miller is really getting the guys to bring the energy to the court every night. I think that will pay dividends come 2012.

What game are you looking the most forward to this week that does not involve your team?

DavidsonCats- I'm interested in two of the games on the 30th. ASU at Miami, Fl and Furman at UNCW.

MocsMania- The George Mason-College of Charleston game is critical. If the Cougars are going to find a way to get an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament, they absolutely must win this game. There are several other interesting games this week, but this one takes the cake.

TheSportsArsenal- Penn-Davidson and George Mason-College of Charleston both should be good tests for the league leaders. Both will be favored to win at home.

UNCGBasketballFan- George Mason versus Charleston should be an interesting match up. If the Cougars have any thought of an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament, they must win this game.

What is on your Wish List for your team this holiday season?

DavidsonCats- Health, joy, and some strong recruiting.

MocsMania- Consistent shooting, and for all Twitter accounts to be monitored closely. The Mocs need to start shooting consistently if they want to contend in the North this year. It may be coming- but it better start soon.

TheSportsArsenal- My wish would probably be for the Bulldogs to have a game in which the opponent does not go on an extended run (27-3, 25-5, etc.).

UNCGBasketballFan- My wish is for a better shooting performance night in and night out from the Spartans. UNCG hasn't been able to consistanly knock down shots most of the year. I feel like if UNCG averaged shooting 45% for the season instead on 37.5%, the record would look a lot better.

After the performances by Davidson (beating Kansas and losing to Massachusetts) and College of Charleston (losing a close one to Louisville and beating Coastal Carolina on the road), can either team get an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament? What set of circumstances do you think need to come together for this to happen as we move forward?
DavidsonCats-  I don't see an at-large as a possibility for Davidson. They have four losses already and are going to lose some Southern Conference games. CofC has fewer losses, but a much lower Strength of Schedule (228 according to Sagarin, compared to Davidson's 28). CofC will be very hard for Southern Conference teams to handle. They could have an outstanding record by March. If they win out in OOC games and lose no more than 2 conference games, I could see them getting an at-large with a loss in the Championship game in Asheville. The Southern will eventually get a second team in the Dance. It'll be a great day for the league when it finally happens.
MocsMania- I believe the Cougars can get an at large bid still, but they need to have a huge SoCon season to pull it off. The Wildcats probably can not, even though they have the better win over Kansas. They simply have too many losses- with the loss to UNC-Charlotte and Massachusetts. Now,  if the Wildcats go unbeaten in SoCon play to the final and then lose a close game, MAYBE they could get one. But the SoCon is so weak this year overall, that it really hurts both these teams.
TheSportsArsenal- No SoCon team has received an at-large bid to the NCAAs since 1950 (NC State). It won't happen this year either. A SoCon team would have to post multiple impressive non-league victories, win the SoCon regular season and then lose in the conference tourney (semis or finals) to have a shot. One problem the league currently has in this respect is that the conference power rating is so low, a great run in the SoCon itself is not nearly enough to garner at-large consideration.

 
UNCGBasketballFan- Those 2 teams certainly have made the discussion interesting. However, I think Davidson's losses to Charlotte and UMass probably take them out of at-large discussions. Charleston probably needed that win at Louisville to give them the signature win required to get on the at-large radar. So, I don't think either can get the bid. I think in order for a SoCon team to have a legit shot, they need to avoid the bad loss, get a signature win and run the table in conference.
Furman and Wofford both are in the top half of the conference according to the RPI. Few people expected them to be there at this point in the season. Is this a result of the schedule? Coaching? Higher talent level than expected? Something else?
DavidsonCats- I thought Furman and Wofford would both reek this year. I was wrong. Wofford has the 4th best Sagarin rating. And the weakest Strength of Schedule. Weak schedule and excellent coaching are getting the job done for the Terriers. Furman has the 3rd best Sagarin rating and 7th best SOS. I like their freshman class a lot and Charlie Reddick has emerged as a player. They just got Bryson Barnes back. They have been a very pleasant surprise.
MocsMania- It probably has a touch to do with the schedule, especially for Furman. Wofford's schedule has been a touch easier, but the Terriers have slightly better wins at this point. They also have been tremendously coached up at this point. Furman does not look great and may wind up finishing fifth in the division. The Terriers are probably the current favorite to get to the third seed out of the South.
TheSportsArsenal-  Furman and Wofford have both been respectable so far, and that is probably a mild surprise. I don't put a lot of stock in RPI right now because part of that is simply what teams they have played, not necessarily beaten. I am more impressed with what Wofford has done, to be honest (Furman's best win is probably at Columbia, in a game in which the Lions' best player got hurt). The Terriers have wins at Bradley and against Tulane, which aren't great but are just as good, if not better, than anyone else in the league has outside of Davidson/College of Charleston.
UNCGBasketballFan- I think that you have to give credit to coaching in both cases. I don't think anyone doubts that Mike Young is a good coach for Wofford. Although I have never been a big fan of Jeff Jackson at Furman, it does appear he has been able to sustain some success despite losing a lot from last season due to graduation. I think both of those coaches deserve a lot of credit.

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