This is the toughest test for the Mocs this year. No questions asked. The Wildcats are a dominant force in the country, and have dominated many of their games absolutely and dynamically.
Yes, I realize that Indiana (another Mocs previous opponent) just beat Kentucky last weekend. I also realize that the Hoosiers are not actually better than the Wildcats, regardless of the final score. Kentucky is probably one of the best five teams in the country.
This is an enormous challenge for the Mocs, who are struggling to find themselves offensively, and must walk into Rupp Arena without Chris Early, who was suspended for disparaging Twitter comments on Friday morning, and has been sent home to Huntington, West Virginia, for the time being. Shulman said he was out for at least the Kentucky game and the Hiwassee game on Wednesday. We'll see if he's back in uniform for the all important Dr Pepper Classic, where we'll find out if the Mocs can turn a corner or not.
As was stated before, Kentucky is good- really good. They lead the country in blocked shots with over nine per game. Anthony Davis (he of the great block against North Carolina to preserve the win) leads the team with 37 blocks. Terrence Jones has 22 blocks, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has eleven blocks. In other words, Drazen Zlovaric and whoever is taking Early's place (probably Jahmal Burroughs and Lance Stokes) will have a really difficult time getting shots in the paint. Early could have been valuable here with his outside shooting, but he is not available. Burroughs is more intensity and inside presence, and that is not necessarily a good combination for this game against Kentucky.
They also are one of the country's best rebounding teams. Davis averages 9.1 rebounds per game, while Kidd-Gilchrist averages 7.3 and Jones averages 6.8. The Mocs, when playing their best, are also a good rebounding team. They did very well against Indiana on that. They have not done a great job in recent weeks in this regard. The Mocs will need to try to control the Cats on the boards.
Doron Lamb is the leading scorer ar 14.9 points per game, while shooting an incredible 51.4% from three point range. He only is shooting 45.7% from the floor overall. Lamb has been something else, and has turned into one of the Wildcats best players. The biggest problem the Wildcats have had under John Calipari is that they have not had a consistent shooter in big moments. Lamb may be that guy at this point.
Jones is averaging 13.8 points per game and was a preseason All American. However, he struggled in the Indiana game. Sometimes Jones does not have his heart into the game. If he ever turns on his motor 100% of the time, he could be one of the best players in the country. He has not learned to do that yet.
Kidd-Gilchrist is really a special player. If you watch him play, you can see his special talent. He is averaging 12.8 points per game and shooting nearly 52%. Anthony Davis is shooting nearly 68% from the floor and averaging 11.6 points per game.
Marquis Teague has been the subject of a lot of discussion in Lexington. He is the latest in a long line of Calipari point guards. He is averaging 10.8 points per game. However, Teague looks like he sometimes struggles to keep possession of the ball. He should improve over the course of the year, but he is not a top of the line point guard at this point. That being said he may be the best point guard the Mocs face all year.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. As usual. The Mocs need to hold their own in rebounding to have any chance at all of keeping this close.
--Three point shooting. The Mocs have some shooters. Omar Wattad, Keegan Bell, and Ricky Taylor, not to mention Dontay Hampton and Rico White can all make the three ball. They were hot on Tuesday against Spalding. Can they keep it going? Can they force Kentucky to shoot (and miss) a bunch of threes? Against Indiana, they only shot seven. If they only shoot seven against the Mocs, it could be a long day for Chattanooga.
--Foul trouble. The Mocs depth is a little bit thinner without Chris Early so they can not afford to get into foul trouble. If the Cats get into a bunch of foul trouble, the Mocs may be able to keep it close.
--First half play. The Mocs have actually started well in recent weeks in games (even against Mercer when they went up 17-4), and Kentucky has really struggled in a couple of first halves. If the Mocs can play well enough in the first half to build up some confidence, maybe the Mocs can hang around in the second half.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO WRONG
--Call it a gut feeling, but Wattad and Bell are going to respond well to this game. Bell has won (while at Vanderbilt) in Rupp Arena. I feel like he will play a good game.
--Wattad makes a three on the first possession and the Mocs will take an early 3-0 lead. That will be the Mocs lone lead.
--The Mocs will hang around in the first half and will galvanize around the Chris Early suspension.
--Rico White and Dontay Hampton will show once again that they belong, even though the final stats may not bear it out.
--Zlovaric will be dominated inside by Davis and will score fewer than five points. Davis will score over 20.
--Kidd-Gilchrist will also score over 20.
--Kentucky 87, Mocs 52. The Mocs are going to hang around for a while, and losing by 35 in Rupp may not be embarassing, honestly, particularly since Kentucky is coming off a loss. The Mocs will hit a few more shots, but the lack of inside game to match the Wildcats will be their undoing.
GO MOCS!
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