Tuesday, December 3, 2013

SoCon Monster Game of the Week: Davidson at Charloote

Davidson and Charlotte don't particularly like each other. They like nothing better than to beat each
other. But the Wildcats are struggling right now, and the 49ers are red hot. At 6-1 with wins over Elon, Kansas State and Michigan, the 49ers are proving themselves. Their only loss? A game they dominated for much of the game before falling at College of Charleston. The Wildcats have played one of the toughest schedules in the country, but have beaten an OK Georgia team and a bad Stetson team.

The Wildcats are in bad shape right now without DeMon Brooks. Brooks was their lone post presence with any real experience. Now, with Brooks out, the Wildcats have been outmanned. Chris Czerapowicz is the tallest player that gets significant minutes. He is 6-7. But he is ice cold right now. He is shooting 22.2% from three point range, one of the strengths that I liked so much about him last year. He's only scored in double digits once all year, against Clemson, when he scored 14. Other than that, he scored eight against Stetson and six against everyone else. He is averaging 3.9 rebounds per game, good for second on the team.

Tyler Kalinoski is shooting 50% from three point range. He is scoring 9.4 points per game, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. That's the most rebounds and most assists per game. Brian Sullivan has made 19 threes on the year, the most on the team, but is shooting jsut 34.5% from three point range. He is the leading scorer now that Brooks is out at 13.9 points per game.

According to Pomeroy, Davidson is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Their eFG% on defense ranks 350th in the country out of 351 teams. They are giving up 59.9% shooting from two point range, which is 349th. This is not a vintage defensive team at this point.

Three 49ers average more rebounds per game than Kalinoski. Willie Clayton averages 10.4 boards to go along with 11.6 points per game. Mike Thorne Jr averages 7.9 rebounds per game and 11.9 points per game. Pierria Henry averages 6.3 rebounds and 12.1 points per game. Those are the three reboundes averaging more rebounds per game. Notice that all three are averaging in double figures. The 49ers have three other players that average in double figures.

Shawn Lester is shooting 51.5% from the field and is the best three point shooter on the team at 40%. He is the leading scorer with 15.3 points per game. Lester is averaging two assists per game. The aforementioned Henry is the leader in assists with 5.9 per contest.

Charlotte is one of the fastest teams in the country. They rank 21st in the country in tempo. They play solid defense and very good offense. That makes this one of the toughest tests Davidson has faced yet- despite the fact that their schedule has been so tough. This is a very real challenge that is that much harder without Brooks.


With Brooks, this would be a challenge that the Wildcats might be able to handle. It's almost impossible to imagine them handling this challenge without Brooks. Henry is going to get a triple double for the 49ers. It's hard to come up with a scenario that the Wildcats can hang around in the rebounding battle. Tom Droney is the player that may be able to keep them in. Czerapowicz must get hot from long range for the Wildcats to really get into this one. In the end, the 49ers are much too good. Charlotte 86, Davidson 71.

1 comment:

  1. I think the point spread will be larger than your prediction.