Sunday, November 4, 2012

Scanning the SoCon- Week One

Each week, twelve bloggers/message boarders (one representing each team) all will vote on a Game of the Week and Power Rankings. At least four will answer a series of questions on their team and around the SoCon. In this first week, we will have everyone answer the questions and do a full preview of the SoCon, including Players of the Year, conference predictions, and All SoCon team. Don't forget to check back daily beginning tomorrow to read Daily Dribbles from around the SoCon here on MocsMania.

THE CONTRIBUTORS

Appalachian State- Yosef's Cabin T-Dog
Chattanooga- Mocs Mania- JohnMoc
College of Charleston- King Kresse CougarSurf11
Davidson- Davidson Cats Message Board David Sink
Elon- Elon Pendulum Student Newspaper- Zachary Horner
Furman- The UFFP Message Board- Hawg
Georgia Southern- GSU Fans Message Board half-n-half
Samford- Samford Bulldogs Message Board AP
The Citadel- The Sports Arsenal- Sandlapper Spike
UNC-Greensboro- UNCG Basketball Fan DashSpartan
Western Carolina- Purple & Gold Jerry Love
Wofford- Terrier Fans Message Board Cody Cooper

THE SCHEDULE

Friday, November 9
Emory at Davidson
Western Carolina at UNC-Asheville
UNCG at High Point
Wofford at Colorado
Samford at Austin Peay
Towson at College of Charleston
Montreat at Appalachian State
Georgia Southern at Valparaiso

Saturday, November 10
Elon at Butler (Maui Invitational)
VMI at The Citadel (All Military Classic)
Columbia at Furman

Sunday, November 11
Mars Hill at Western Carolina
Army/Air Force at The Citadel (All Military Classic)
 
THE PREDICTED STANDINGS (first place votes in parentheses)
North
1) UNCG 65 (7)
2) Elon 60 (4)
3) Western Carolina 55 (1)
4) Appalachian State 27
5) Chattanooga 24
6) Samford 21

South
1) Davidson 72 (12)
2) College of Charleston 58
3) Georgia Southern 45
4) Wofford 39
5) Furman 25
6) The Citadel 13

ALL SOCON PRESEASON VOTING (number of votes in parentheses)

De'Mon Brooks, Davidson 12
Jake Cohen, Davidson 11
Eric Ferguson, Georgia Southern 10
Trevis Simpson, UNCG 10
Andrew Lawrence, College of Charleston 6

Others Receiving Votes: Mike Groselle (The Citadel) 5, Trey Sumler (Western Carolina) 3, Jake Isenbarger (Elon) 1, Trent Wiedeman (College of Charleston) 1, Karl Cochran (Wofford) 1.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTING
See individual votes and explanations below.

De'Mon Brooks, Davidson

THE SOCON GAME OF THE WEEK VOTING

Western Carolina at UNC-Asheville 3
Elon at Butler 3

Wofford at Colorado 2
VMI at The Citadel 1
Georgia Southern at Valparaiso 1
Towson at College of Charleston 1

THE QUESTIONS

1) Who is your preseason player of the year? Why?

Appalachian State-  Brooks. Best player on the best team. His play could make Davidson
really good or great.

Chattanooga- I'm going with Jake Cohen from Davidson. He and Brooks fought it out for best player last year, and I did love Trevis Simpson from UNCG. I also really like Eric Ferguson from Georgia Southern. Those are the four best players in the SoCon, in my opinion. I think Cohen is the most consistent player of those four, which is why I give him the slight edge over Brooks.

College of Charleston- De'Mon Brooks- I think he'll be the best player on the best team this year.

Davidson- I've always said that unless there is an unbelievable player on a lesser team, that the POY should go to the best player on the best team. And there's the problem. The coaches and the media couldn't agree last year on who deserved the POY. Both Brooks and Cohen are back and should be better than they were last year. I'll go with the senior over the junior. Jake Cohen.

Elon- My preseason Player of the Year is Georgia Southern’s Eric Ferguson. I have the Eagles rated fourth in the South Division, but Ferguson has the ability to put them up to No. 2, at best. He’s the most NBA-ready player in the conference and can dominate a game on both offense and defense. He gave my team, the Elon Phoenix, fits in both games they matched up last year, including a jaw-dropping block on Elon guard Austin Hamilton in the regular season.

Furman- De'Mon Brooks, Davidson. He is best, most athletic,and the most savvy player on the best team in the SoCon.

Georgia Southern- De'Mon Brooks, Davidson. Is there anything he can't do? Brooks can play with his back to the basket on the block or facing up 20 feet away. I think he's the toughest matchup in the conference.

Samford- Jake Cohen. He’s strong, versatile, and his team is good enough to allow him to avoid double-teams in an overwhelming amount of possessions. Davidson has enough shooters to space the floor, and Cohen’s basketball IQ is strong enough to find them. The fact that Davidson can go high-low with Cohen and Brooks along with those shooters means that one of those two will typically be able to get a quality look. If he continues to improve at the same rate he has in the last couple years, he’ll be trouble.

The Citadel- Jake Cohen. He is the best player in the league last year, in  my opinion. He is back, so there is no reason not to pick him.

UNC-Greensboro- Jake Cohen - He has the most complete skill set of any SoCon player. I thought he was the league's best player last season and I don't see any reason why he won't be this year.

Western Carolina- De'Mon Brooks. Last season, Brooks was Selected AP All-America Honorable Mention, named SoCon Player of the Year and voted SoCon Tournament MVP.    Lead the Wildcats in scoring), rebounding and field-goal.  During the season, he cored in double figures 27 times and hit the 20-point plateau 10 times. 

Wofford- I'm going to have to go with De 'Mon Brooks of Davidson. He should be a force inside for the Wildcats. I think he will be one of the top scorers and rebounders in the conference and he will help lead Davidson to a SoCom championship in both the regular season and the conference tournament. De 'Mon is part of a deep, talented, experienced team at Davidson that knows how to win, and winning always helps a player's cause in garnering awards like POY.

2) What do you think you will see from your team in November?

Appalachian State-  A struggle. Mike Neal is out until mid-December due to academics.
ASU will go as far as Canty can go, but one player can only do so
much.

Chattanooga- I think the Mocs will learn a whole lot about themselves the week of Thanksgiving. They have four huge games that week- three at home against Southeast Missouri, Louisiana Tech, and Troy on consecutive days in the CBE Classic, and then head to Kennesaw State. A 3-1 split in those four games would tell us that the Mocs are probably farther along than they should be given how many young guys are on the roster. A 1-3 split tells us that the Mocs aren't quite ready for primetime yet. Yet.

College of Charleston- If the one exhibition game is any indication, the Cougars should be a whole lot better on defense and we should out-rebound most teams in the Southern Conference. The players seem to have grasped the new system and they'll need to quickly master it because the November schedule only gets more difficult. I expect them to hold teams to a lower shooting percentage vs last year but some of the little things like finishing plays defensively and running the offense efficiently might take some more time.

Davidson-  Davidson has a Road Warrior schedule in November. No D1 home games. At New Mexico, at UWM, then a three game tournament in Orlando. We'll see a team that is figuring out what everyone's role is and how good the team can be. I think we'll see a 4-1 or 3-2 record.

Elon- I think we’ll begin to see the encore of what happened last season. With all five starters returning (I don’t really count now-graduated guard Drew Spradlin as a starter last year), and a couple of them coming off injuries, we’ll see the rerun and see if it’s as good as it was the first time. We’ll find out if it’s like The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air (where the rerun is good no matter what because Will Smith is classic) or Lost (where any rerun won’t make sense because you probably would not have seen the episode before it in the last seven days). After the Nov. 10 matchup with Butler, the schedule is some ups and downs. Three straight games against non-BCS teams, two in the Maui Invitational Regional Games, are followed by a Nov. 21 rematch with the University of South Carolina, a team the Phoenix beat last season in a marquee win for the program. The month closes with a Nov. 24 game against VMI on the road, which should be a win, and then the first conference game against Georgia Southern. This will be the litmus test for this team early on, an indicator on how the early season schedule is prepping them for the SoCon schedule. I predict losses to Butler and South Carolina, and, with a narrow win over the Eagles, the Phoenix will go into Dec. 1 against College of Charleston with a 5-2 record, 1-0 in the conference.

Furman- The Paladins will struggle to find their true identity and recover from a unusually large rash of pre-season injuries.

Georgia Southern- I think November will be a month that GSU learns to play together without Willie Powers and Ben Drayton. It will also be a month to figure out where CJ Reed fits in on the team. Coach Young has put together a Novemeber schedule that involves a lot of time away from Statesboro, but also some winable games. I think GSU ends the month with a victory at home over Elon to start off 1-0 in the conference and 3-3 overall.

Samford- You’ll see a team trying to develop an identity. The schedule is tough and the Bulldogs are “buy” games for several teams. Hopefully, they will begin to develop into a defensive-minded team that can get stops at crucial times and a strong team that plays well together.

The Citadel-  I expect a rotation of eleven players for the first few games, as Chuck Driesell evaluates some new personnel.

UNC-Greensboro- I think we're going to see real quick how UNCG deals with expectations and if they can win some "toss-up" road games. Rumor is that there is some legitimate bad blood between the two head coaches of the November 9 season opener. I'll personally be looking to see how intense things get during that game.

Western Carolina- Possibly a slow start, as in past seasons, as the Cats will be on the road 6 of 7 games in November.  However, there is the chance of a good start,  depending on how the Cats play in the Cancun Challenge.  Games against Wichita State, Western Kentucky, and Austin Peay should give Catamount fans a good feel on how well this team will play minus Mutombo and Cole will be missed. 

Wofford- I expect a lot of growing pains. The team will be on the road a lot, and with the large number of inexperienced players the Terriers will be depending on this season, wins may be hard to come by in the first month of the season. But I also expect the team to improve as the month goes along and these young pups get more games under their belt. It will be an interesting month, as new players always bring some uncertainty. I am looking forward to it.

3) Will any team from the SoCon earn a ranking this year? Why or why not?

Appalachian State-  If Davidson beats Duke in the TWC Arena, then yes. If it isn't
close, then no.

Chattanooga- I tend to think that Davidson has the national perception and the big early games to sneak into the rankings. A good showing at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando and a win over New Mexico early would do it, I think. Not sure if they can beat the Lobos, but I am confident of a good showing in Orlando.

College of Charleston- I think if either Davidson or CofC gets through their out-of conference games to start the season without a loss they might garner some votes. I don't think that will happen. If Davidson loses 1-2 OOC games (say, New Mexico and Duke) and runs through conference play undefeated they deserve a national ranking.

Davidson- Maybe. CofC could earn a ranking with a great season, but they'd have to start out hot and stay that way for a long time. They finished 4th in the division last year and would have to make up a lot of ground with the voters to find themselves in the Top 25. Davidson has a better shot. The Wildcats are already getting votes in the media poll, did very well in the scrimmage at Texas, and have some early season opportunities (at New Mexico, a tournament field with Vandy, West Virginia, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, and Clemson and games with Drexel, Richmond, and Duke) to attract attention before conference play gets cranked up in January. I do think that the conference will do better in the Mid-Major poll this season. I expect at least 3 teams from our league to get votes in that poll. Davidson was 17th in the final MM25 poll last year. No other Southern teams had a single vote.

Elon- It’s nearly a fact that any team from the SoCon getting a national ranking means Davidson College is in the conversation. Wins over New Mexico Nov. 12, Vanderbilt and/or West Virginia Nov. 22-23 and, most notably, a Jan. 2 victory over Duke (made easier by being away from Cameron Indoor) would certainly put them in the conversation. And with all those returners? I don’t think they’ll get it, but if any SoCon team’s going to, it’s those Wildcats.

Furman- Davidson may sneak in and out of the national rankings. They had a very good team last year, and the Wildcats have got everybody back. They will need to pull off some wins against some big boys. If they cannot pull some big wins, nobody will be ranked this year.

Georgia Southern- If anybody does it will be Davidson. That's all going to depend on what they do against Drexel. I think Davidson will be undefeated and ranked in the top 25 by the time they play Duke.

Samford- I doubt any SoCon teams will reach “Top 25” status, but Davidson has the best opportunity simply because they’re genuinely good and are a known quantity among poll voters. On the other hand, they will have to run the table early and challenge (or beat) Duke before SoCon play to get recognition. Charleston, theoretically, has the second-best chance if they can knock off Baylor or Louisville.

The Citadel- No. Davidson has the best chance, but unless the Wildcats roll off a long string of early wins (including a victory over New Mexico), I don't see it happening.

UNC-Greensboro- No. Davidson is the only team that really has a shot to do this and I just don't see them being able to win enough marquee games to garner a national ranking. I do think they'll pick off at least one big name in Orlando, though.

Western Carolina- Yes, Davidson. The ranking services will be kind to the Wildcats early on, based not only on reputation, but the fact they have all five starters returning to a team that won both the regular season and SoCon Tournament.  Ken Pomroy has the Cats ranked #44 in his preseason power poll.  I think they will start out fairly high in the preseason RPI rankings as well.  All it will take is for the Wildcats to do their job, and win early

Wofford- No, I don't think so. Davidson, the SoCon's best team, is in the stronger of the two divisions. So their conference schedule will be tough and it will be hard for them to run through it unscathed. Also, the RPIs of a good number of teams in the SoCon will be quite low, which may hurt the strength of schedule for Davidson as well as other conference teams. And finally, there are just too many good teams in bigger conferences in college basketball that will be given more ranking consideration than SoCon teams.

4) Which team do you think has the best chance to be the biggest surprise based on the preseason SoCon Coaches poll? Why?

Appalachian State- My head is leaning towards The Citadel. There's a gap between the top three and bottom three in the South Division in my opinion and they could get as high as fourth if Groselle plays well.

Chattanooga- I'll go with Wofford. When are people going to realize that the Terriers were more than just Noah Dahlman and Company a couple of years ago? Mike Young has the Terriers going as a real program. Last year, they lost almost everyone, and they turned in a great year. They lose almost everyone again- but I said I wasn't doubting Wofford again after last year. I think Wofford has a real shot at getting a bye in the SoCon Tournament- something most people are not predicting heading into this year.

College of Charleston- I think Samford could actually surprise some people. Bennie Seltzer was a good hire and they have some really talented young players in sophomores Tyler Hood and Raijon Kelly.

Davidson- I'll go with Samford. The coaches picked them 6th in the North. They have some talented players, they might be energized by a new coach and new system, and the teams just above them have some question marks.

Elon- Appalachian State lost three key seniors to graduation: guard Omar Carter and forwards Andre Williamson and Isaac Butts. Thus, the Mountaineers received no first-place votes and were picked to finish fourth in the North Division by the coaches. I’m not going to say they’re definitely going to do it. But if something like this is to happen, it’s going to happen in the North.  There’s an immense amount of talent on Appalachian State. Sophomore guards Mike Neal and Tab Hamilton provide a speedy backcourt, while Jamal Trice, Nathan Healy and seven-foot center Brian Okam provide a high-scoring and high-energy front line. If UNCG proves to be a flash in the pan and Wes Miller’s rookie year as a coach is a mirage and Elon and Western Carolina prove less than predicted, we may see Appalachian State as a surprise team come March. And Jason Capel is no slouch.

Furman- Furman. We have a chance to be pretty good, we are deep, but need to gel and avoid the injury bug. Although I must admit, I am biased.

Georgia Southern- Chattanooga. They had a bad year last year, but I expect things to be a little more of the "normal" for UTC this year. I could see the Mocs challenging for a first round SoCon bye in the North Division.

Samford- The team most likely to exceed expectations is Georgia Southern. If they’re going to make “the leap,” this should be the year to do it. They’re sort of a forgotten third wheel in the South behind Davidson and CofC, but they have a strong core, a premiere player to lean on, and they’re in the fourth year under Charlton Young.

The Citadel- I'm not sure I see a big positive surprise, unless The Citadel moving up from last place counts. I'll go with Elon winning the North.

UNC-Greensboro- Chattanooga. They have an absolute mystery at the PG spot. But they have a couple of monster players in the post. If they can keep from turning the ball over and not fall into the trap of shooting a ton of quick 3's (something I thought they did way too often last year) then they have the chance to improve upon expections.

Western Carolina- Western Carolina. Coach Hunter – As well as being one of the better coaches in the SoCon, Coach Hunter has a way of getting the most from his players.  He’s very high on this year’s team and I think  we can expect a big year out of returning starters Sumler, Boggs, & King.

Wofford- I'll say Samford. The Bulldogs of Samford are in the weaker of the two divisions. Also, they return two SoCon all-fresmen team players in Tyler Hood and Rajon Kelly. Those guys are off to great starts in their college careers and will only get better throughout this season. I also like Samford's incoming freshman class. It features the Florida 5A POY from last season in Russel Wilson and the Florida 7A POY from last season in Jaylen Beckham. Samford was picked to finish last in the North by the coaches and the media, but I think they've got the pieces in place to perhaps surprise some people.

5) Which team do you think has the best chance the biggest disappointment based on the preseason SoCon Coaches poll? Why?

Appalachian State- CofC. They have a new coach and there's no telling how the team will respond in what will likely be their final SoCon season.

Chattanooga- Whew. Talk about a way to make people mad. I truly am not sure which team I think might be the biggest disappointment. I believe in UNCG, Elon, and Western Carolina as much as anyone. The bottom of the North couldn't be seen as disappointments based on expectations. The Citadel and Furman are both low in the standings. I just picked Wofford to be a surprise. I think Davidson wins the SoCon. That leaves College of Charleston and Georgia Southern. Both have potential problems. With Hewitt out early for the Eagles, I'm going with them. They will struggle without him, and then take a while to adjust once he comes back. They'll also miss Willie Powers more than they think they will. So I'll take Georgia Southern- and not feel real good about it.

College of Charleston- Western Carolina lost two key seniors from the team that so narrowly missed out on a ticket to the Big Dance last year. They still have a lot of talent but every other team in the North is on the upswing so I wouldn't be surprised if the standings in April do not match those in the preseason.

Davidson- I'll go with ASU. They are picked 4th in the North, so there isn't that far to drop. Capel's record was worse in year 2 than in year 1. Another decrease this year and he could find his seat getting pretty warm. It doesn't help that one of their starting guards has just been declared ineligible for the first 9 games of the season. A poster on their board, AppStateNation, summed up the preview from T-Dog like this: "Nice job. I completely agree with that. Although I do think there's a chance we end up even worse than that. It could be a long season despite what has to be one of the easiest schedules anywhere."

Elon- One thing we know about College of Charleston is that they’re talented. Preseason all-SoCon team members, senior guard Andrew Lawrence and junior forward Trent Wiedeman, are joined by tall and lanky sophomore forward/center Adjehi Baru, not to mention junior guard Nori Johnson and sophomore guard Anthony Stitt. Despite that talent, they’ve got a chance to fall far because they’ve got a new coach. Doug Wojcik comes into his first year with the Cougars after two NIT titles with Tulsa, but you don’t know how that’s going to work. I write this with hesitation because I picked them to finish second in the South. But they’ve got a shot to fall just because the South Division is loaded.

Furman- If Davidson loses five SoCon games, it will be a HUGE disappointment. If they hang on, UNCG and Elon are poised to be so-so teams in a weak division. UNCG is living large on the way they ended the season. Elon also did not impress me much last year.

Georgia Southern- Charleston. They have enough talent to challenge Davidson for the SoCon title. But with a new coach coming in there are a lot of questions as to whether they will live up to that talent or not. I could see them finishing as high as second in the South Division or as low as 4th.

Samford- Davidson, simply because anything less than a zero or 1-loss run through the SoCon regular season on the way to the SoCon Tournament Championship will be adisappointment. Those expectations aside, Charleston has a lot to lose this season. By leaving for the CAA (it’s inevitable), the Cougars need to prove that their basketball program is a notch above the rest of the SoCon. The common sentiment is that they’re no better than second in their division. I was a big fan of Antwaine Wiggins’s work and I think he’s a huge loss for that program. Unless Baru has drastically improved (entirely possible), there will be a heavy load on Trent Wiedeman and Andrew Lawrence. Both of them are solid players, but they’ve logged a lot of minutes over the last 12 months. Of course, they have better talent than most SoCon teams—it will be interesting to see if they’re coached up to maximize that talent.

The Citadel- I think the obvious fallback candidate is UNC-Greensboro.

UNC-Greensboro- I'm sure the concensus here among the whole group will be UNCG. But anyone who looks at that team without any bias can see they are really about a year away from being a legit player in the conference title race. I'm going to go with Charleston as biggest disappointment candidate. This year, Charleston boasts probably just as much pure basketball talent as anyone in the SoCon. I could have said the same thing last year too, though. It will be up to the new coaching staff to get more out of this team than the previous coaches got last season.

Western Carolina- UNCG. Greensboro did win the north division last year with just a 10-8 record.  Should they have real competition this year, from WCU and Elon, a 10-8 record will not get the crown.  In closing out the season, the Spartans went 1-4 to close out the season, after winning the previous 8 of 10 games.   Being picked preseason #1 in the division just may be more pressure than this young team and new head coach needs on their first season of play. 

Wofford- Georgia Southern. The Eagles are in the tough South Division and they have already lost a key player in double-digit scorer Jelani Hewitt for the rest of the fall semester due to academic issues, and there's no guarantee he will be back next semester. This could really affect the Eagle backcourt in a negative way, and Hewitt was being counted on to help take some of the scoring load off of Eric Ferguson. GSU was picked third in the South by the coaches and the media. If Hewitt doesn't return and no one else can step up in his absence, while teams like Wofford, Furman, and The Citadel end up playing better than expected (and they all have the potential to do so) then the Eagles may not do that well.

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