Monday, February 28, 2011

February in Review: One Bad Apple

Nope, February was not a wildly successful one. The Mocs were just 3-5, with wins over Georgia Southern, Furman, and Samford, and losses to Davidson, Western Carolina, Appalachian State, Georgia Tech, and Wofford.

But really, the record could be forgiven if not for the blowout loss at home against Wofford on Senior Night.

That loss sticks out like a sore thumb. The flu and suspensions helped knock off the Mocs on the road against Western Carolina and Appalachian State, and maybe even against Georgia Tech to some degree. Davidson beat us, but we were in that game in the second half.

But the Wofford game was another humiliation. How many of these do we have to suffer through?

All-in-all the month has to get a solid C. The Mocs did not win the North, and I feel like they would have if the flu had not struck for the trips to Western Carolina and Appalachian State. The game against Georgia Tech showed the Mocs could hang with an ACC team. The Furman performance may have been the Mocs best one of the year. Samford and Georgia Southern were nice wins. Hard to give that lower than a C. If not for the sickness, then the Mocs would have gotten a lower grade. But with how tough the schedule was, this was a solid showing.

With March looming, there is clearly a lot on the line. The Mocs have to get more consistent as they go out and face the rest of the SoCon in Chattanooga this weekend. If they play some consistent, good basketball, then the Mocs could easily find themselves in the NCAA Tournament. And that has been the goal all along.

GO MOCS!

Three Point Play

1)The best Thursday match-up? Davidson-UNCG. That game should be compelling. The Wildcats are the clear favorite, but the Spartans played well in Chattanooga earlier this year. Davidson also lost in the first round of the tournament last year to a team they should have beaten. So this game should be wildly entertaining. And it's the first game of the day. It just doesn't get any better than that.

2) Jeff Jackson should be Coach of the Year, but I'd say that over the last week he's done nothing to endear himself to his fanbase. The Paladins losses have really put a damper on them. If they wind up going out early, and struggling next year, like they probably will, Jackson may be in trouble. It could be interesting.

3) Donald Sims points for the tournament could be very interesting. Sims could be out in the first round, and has a good enough team to make it all the way to the championship game. It just depends on your perspective of how far the Mountaineers go. That's why it is such an interesting question about Sims for the tiebreaker of the SoCon Tournament Pick 'Em on MocFans. Could be very interesting?

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Tournament Pick 'Em Contest!

Feel free to click on the title of this post, and head on over to MocFans and pick the whole tournament! There's no prizes, nothing to be won, but it should be fun. Fans from all schools are welcome and encouraged to participate. The more varying opinions on different schools that are present, the more fun the contest will be!

Good luck!

Separating the Contenders from the Pretenders

This year, the Southern Conference teams can be divided into five easy to digest groups. As we head into the tournament, let's look at where each team falls and what each category even is. Teams in each category are listed in alphabetical order.

THE FAVORITE
The team that Vegas favors

Collge of Charelston- People around the SoCon don't seem to think they will win due to their checkered Tournament past. But the fact is that if you went to Vegas and bet, the Cougars would be the favorite. There's also little doubt that the Cougars have the most talented team. Could they finally break through and get it done? Possibly. But they are the clear favorite.

THE CHALLENGERS
The other teams with the byes

Chattanooga- The Mocs are at home, and have earned a first round bye. Given the tournament's past, that bye makes a huge difference. The Mocs have plenty of talent- but lack consistency. This team beat Furman by nearly 20 points on Monday, and then lost to Wofford by nearly 40 on Wednesday. Who knows which team will show up?

Western Carolina- The Catamounts won the North on Saturday with their home win over College of Charleston. They will be a very tough out in this tournament. They have enough talent to pull it off. They just need to come out and play good basketball. They will have a tough quarterfinal match-up against either Davidson or UNC-Greensboro, and if they get by that, could be facing Wofford.

Wofford- The reigning champs are peeking at the right time. They hammered Samford, Chattanooga, and Furman in their final three SoCon games. They are very good. They are not deep, but the bye makes that a little less important. A match-up with Donald Sims and Appalachian State in the quarters looms, so who knows. But the Terriers are very good.

THE SLEEPERS
Teams without byes that still have a reasonable chance to win it

Applachian State- The Mountaineers have Donald Sims and Omar Carter, and that gives them a shot in any game they play. This team is capable of making a big run in the SoCon with that offensive firepower. They could become the first team ever to win four games in four days.

Davidson- The Wildcats are the league's hottest team having won nine out of their last ten games. The early season struggles prevented them from getting a bye, but they could easily become the first team ever to win four games in four days. The coaching doesn't hurt things either.

Furman- One of the league's pleasant surprises has really struggled in their last three games. Last week at this time I considered Furman to be the team I was going to pick to win the tournament. Now, I'm not sure they can get by Samford on Friday. If they can get back to how they were playing, they could win four games in four days. But this team played the last week like a team that was not handling pressure well.

THE DARKHORSES
Teams that could get hot and get to the championship game

Elon- The Phoenix always seem to play their best basketball in the tournament. A couple of years ago they got all the way to the championship game from the BBIT. They played Davidson reasonably close in the championship game that year as well. This team has some offensive weapons, and is tough enough to pose some problems to any opponent.

UNC-Greensboro- The Spartans started playing better towards the middle, though they still struggled a bit at the end. But when you watch them play, they look like a team that could get hot shooting and make a run. They aren't the best team, by any stretch, but a couple of upsets in the tourney and finding themselves in the title game? Why not?

THE NO CHANCES
Teams that may win a game and be pleased

Georgia Southern- This team is the worst team in the league, but have been playing a bit better lately. They are athletic and could upset Appalachian State on Day One. But it is almost impossible to imagine them having anything left in the tank to win a second game.

Samford- The Bulldogs unique offensive style always makes them tough to play, so no one really wants to see them in the tournament. They are capable of beating Furman. But it is hard to imagine them getting further than that, although they have nearly beaten the Mocs twice.

The Citadel- The Bulldogs have Cameron Wells which makes them capable of pulling off an upset or two in the tournament. But, outside of the second half at Western Carolina, they have been the worst team in the conference over the last few weeks. They may pull off a first round win, but I wouldn't count on it.

Three Point Play

1) Potential tournament match-up I'm most excited about? How about Wofford-Western Carolina in the semis? They are the two hottest teams in the SoCon right now- especially if you take out one horrific half by Western Carolina against The Citadel. Those two teams are playing great basketball, and I honestly think that the winner of that game would become the favorite to win the tournament.

2) The great thing about this year's tournament is that there are seven teams that finished with winning records in SoCon play. That means that there are seven teams that have to feel pretty good about their chances in the tourney. The four teams that get byes are the teams that are most likely to win it obviously. But Friday will be interesting just because of the fact that Appalachian State, Davidson, and Furman (all teams that think they have a real shot at winning the thing) all will be playing. Should be a nice first day.

3) Western Carolina, Wofford, and Elon all clinched their higher seeds on the final day. All these teams benefit from it- probably no one more than Wofford, who got the bye which they would not have gotten if they had lost at Furman. Elon also benefits. Instead of playing Davidson, they get The Citadel in the first round. That's much better for the Phoenix.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

SoCon Power Rankings

Through the end of the regular season:

1) College of Charleston
2) Wofford
3) Western Carolina
4) Chattanooga
5) Davidson
6) Furman
7) Appalachian State
8) Elon
9) The Citadel
10) UNC-Greensboro
11) Samford
12) Georgia Southern

ANALYSIS: The top two are set. The next five are basically done by drawing names out of a hat. The next four are pretty similar to that as well. The bottom team is clearly Georgia Southern, even though they did beat The Citadel just a week ago. Furman got clobbered by Chattanooga and Wofford, and nearly lost to Samford a week ago. That's why they fell. Appalachian State did beat College of Charleston, but so did Davidson, Chattanooga, and Western Carolina who are ahead of them. Western is playing really well right now, and Davidson gets the bump because of their current hot stretch. Davidson did beat Chattanooga, but also finished two full games behind them. One game can be accounted for by the tougher divisional competition, but the second game is still out there. We'll sort this out much better with a tournament. There are seven teams that can win it- in particular the top four, all of whom have byes, which has proven so important over the years.

Tournament Schedule

FRIDAY
2:00 (4S) Davidson vs. (5N) UNC-Greensboro
4:30* (3N) Appalachian State vs. (6S) Georgia Southern
7:00 (3S) Furman vs. (6N) Samford
9:30* (4N) Elon vs. (5S) The Citadel

SATURDAY
2:00 (1N) Western Carolina vs. Davidson/UNC-Greensboro
4:30* (2S) Wofford vs. Appalachian State/Georgia Southern
7:00 (2N) Chattanooga vs. Furman/Samford
9:30* (1S) College of Charleston vs. Elon/The Citadel

SUNDAY
6:00 First Semifinal (SportSouth)
8:30* Second Semifinal (SportSouth)

MONDAY
9:00 Championship Game (ESPN2)

* means that time is approximate- the game will begin thirty minutes following the end of the previous game.

Battle of North vs. South

NORTH at SOUTH
South 17, North 7

SOUTH at NORTH
North 14, South 10

NORTH vs. SOUTH
South 27, North 21

ANALYSIS: That comes out to South winning 56.3% of the time. Is that what you would have expected before the season? Not me. I thought the South would win over 60% and quite possibly as high as 67% (which would have been 32-16). So the North has turned out to be more competitive in this than expected. Also, on an interesting note, College of Charleston lost just four games, and three of them were to North teams. Admittedly, they may not have been putting forth the greatest effort against Western and Appy with the division clinched, but still the Cougars lost three times to North teams. The North teams are far closer than the average fan thinks to the South. The tournament should be interesting to watch in this regard as well. The South is clearly better- make no mistake. The South should win at least two on Day One, and could easily steal a third and maybe even a fourth if Georgia Southern pulls out a miracle. We'll just have to wait and see.

Mocs 77, Samford 72 OT

The Mocs had Omar Wattad struggling to go 1 of 9 from three point range. He scored a mere 9 points.

DeAntre Jefferson and Chris Early were in foul trouble and combined for just 16 points.

Jeremy Saffore, Dontay Hampton, and Troy Cage scored a total of 13 points.

Ricky Taylor scored his usual- 14 points. It just seems like he always scores right in that range.

But tonight was the night that Keegan Bell reasserted himself. Not only did he have five assists and no turnovers, but he scored 25 points, made six three pointers, and was the offensive key to the game.

And Early wasn't exactly useless. He came up with three gigantic steals and came up with nine mammoth rebounds. Saffore and Jefferson both came up with six rebounds, as the Mocs outrebounded Samford by 14.

The Mocs did not stop Samford's offense particularly. The Bulldogs shot 45.5% from the floor, and 41.7% from three point range. They shut them down on the offensive glass (an area Samford does not excel at anyway), and held them to three offensive rebounds.

The Mocs also only turned the ball over thirteen times. That's a positive sign moving forward.

The Mocs did not win the North Division in the end. Western Carolina beat College of Charleston and won the division. The Mocs will play the winner of Furman-Samford on Saturday night in the quarters, with a possible date with College of Charleston looming in the semifinals. It is going to be a tough road to get to the SoCon Championship Game, much less win it.

But they got to 12-6 in SoCon play.

More analysis of the regular season will be coming up this week.

GO MOCS!

Friday, February 25, 2011

Samford Preview: New Life

The preview will not be especially long for this game. I'm saving up my best adjective, noun mixes for the SoCon Tournament.

The Mocs looked like they were out of the SoCon North race as late as the second half of the Western Carolina-The Citadel game. And then, suddenly, new life. The Citadel rallied from 21 down to stun a significantly better Western Carolina team at their place. And now, the Mocs need to just beat Samford at Samford and see Western get beaten at home by College of Charleston and the Mocs will win the SoCon North outright. An amazing twist of fate.

Samford has locked up the six seed from the North and will battle the loser of the Furman-Wofford game on Friday of the SoCon Tournament. The Bulldogs began 2-1 in the SoCon. Since then, they have gone 2-12. They won at Georgia Southern by eight and at home against Elon by just two. However, they lose to Wofford twice during that stretch, once by 38, which is not exactly easy to accomplish, and once by just 13, which the Mocs have proven is nearly impossible to do. (Heavy sigh)

Samford is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. They rank 344th in the country. Of course, Wofford ranked lower than 300th, and the Mocs have not been able to outrebound them either time they played them.

Jeffrey Merritt is the only Bulldog averaging in double digits with 10.5 points per game and 6.4 rebounds per game. But the most dangerous player on the Bulldogs is Josh Bedwell. He shoots nearly 42 percent from three point range. He is either on or off. When he is hitting his shots, he can be a dangerous player. He is almost as likely to put up over 20 points (3 times) as he is to put up zero points (4 times this year).

We all know that Samford plays a very unique style of offense that makes you defend for a full 35 seconds. The Mocs will be required to be one hundred percent focused on the task at hand to guard this Bulldogs team.

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. Mocs must dominate the boards against a poor rebounding team to pull off the road win.
--Focus. Maybe it was good to lose to Wofford? At least for this game? If the Mocs had won, it is possible that the focus would not have been there quite as strong for this game. And you can't defend this Samford team without focus. Let's hope Coach Shulman has their focus now.
--Shooting. The Mocs have to shoot better than they did against Wofford or they may not make it out of the 30s because of the pace of the game.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Hope like crazy that Western loses to CofC.
--Celebrate a solid 12-6 SoCon record.
--Look forward to the SoCon Tourney and start analyzing the Mocs potential first round match-ups.
--Be pleased about 8-2 against the SoCon North.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Be frustrated about finishing second in the SoCon North.
--Wonder if there is a good match-up in the SoCon Tourney for the Mocs at this point.
--Sigh, take a deep breath, go to bed, try to rest up in preparation for the SoCon Tourney, and remember that tomorrow is another day.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Keegan Bell will show lots of heart playing in his hometown and will have one of his best games.
--The Mocs will rebound better.
--Samford will come out a little flat with nothing left on the line for them except for pride.
--Mocs 64, Samford 53. The Mocs have plenty on the line, and Samford has nothing on the line. If the Mocs don't play with more energy than Samford here, then it will be a really bad sign for the SoCon Tournament for the Mocs. They will come out with more energy. The question is- will the shots fall? If they do, the Mocs will win this one relatively easily. If they don't, the Mocs will be in for a battle to the very end- one they most likely come up short in.

GO MOCS!

Flu And Alive

The Mocs are alive in the SoCon North race thanks to Western Carolina's stunning loss to The Citadel yesterday.

And I'm still alive despite a battle with the flu. I'm starting to feel better. But that is the reason for the lack of posts in the last 36 hours. I'll be providing full coverage of the weekend's action...assuming that my kids illness does not take over...

GO MOCS!

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Three Point Play

1) After the Mocs terrible performance against Wofford, the Terriers remind everyone why they are the defending champs, and the Mocs show that they are more than capable of blowing the tournament even at home. The Mocs are good enough to win the tourney, but so is Wofford. Can the Terriers beat Furman at Furman and earn the bye? If they do, they might become the favorite come tourney time.

2) Western Carolina now has a chance to clinch the North with a win at home against The Citadel. The Catamounts are huge favorites to come up with the win over the struggling Bulldogs. That would lock the Mocs into a two seed. The Catamounts could wind up playing Wofford in the semis if they can come up with the number one seed from the North. Then again, Wofford could wind up playing the Mocs in the second round if Furman beats Wofford on Saturday.

3) Another chance for a win for Georgia Southern? Maybe. They are at home against UNCG tonight. The Eagles could come up with home wins over Elon and UNCG and get to three SoCon wins. That would give a lot of momentum to the Eagles. They could have a lot of momentum heading into the first round game against Appalachian State in the SoCon Tourney. That could make things interesting.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Wofford 97, Mocs 58

I am sick and don't feel good. Is that related to the way the Mocs played tonight? Probably not, but it sure didn't help me feel any better the way the Mocs played.

They couldn't make shots, and they were dominated on the boards. How do the Mocs get dominated on the boards by one of the worst rebounding teams in the SoCon consistently? It doesn't make sense, but it now has happened twice in two games.

The Mocs chances of getting the number one seed from the North now are pretty small. The five "best" players for the Mocs (Bell, Wattad, Taylor, Early, and Jefferson) scored 38 points on 14 of 44 shooting, and 6 of 25 shooting from three point range.

I almost wonder if Wattad and Taylor never got into the game since they didn't start. That is not an excuse, but it seems like Senior Night was hurt by Troy Cage and Jeff Smith starting.

I don't know what to make of this. Yet again, the Mocs look like they are in trouble. The tournament starts in a week and a half. And they look as lost as they ever have.

GO MOCS!

Three Point Play

1) The Wofford game means nothing tomorrow night to them. They have to beat Furman to get the second seed from the South. Doesn't matter what happens against the Mocs- only the Furman-Wofford game matters. The Mocs could jump into first in the North Division if they win, but Western Carolina will still control their own destiny.

2) Chris Long of Elon won the player of the week award for the SoCon. Long scored 30 points. He had a tremendous game against UNCG. The Phoenix needs guys like Long to step up if they are going to get anywhere in the SoCon Tournament. This could be a great first step for the Phoenix. Is there any way Long can keep this up throughout the SoCon Tourney?

3) Who would have thought that the North would still have a shot to beat the South in the head-to-head match-ups heading into the final eleven conference games of the year? The North has been better than expected this year, even though it still seems like the perception is that the North is not any good. After reading things like that the second place team in the North would be lucky to have a better record in conference play than the fifth place team from the South, it really has been a pleasant surprise as the season has played out.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Wofford Preview: Senior Night

It's the last home game ever for three seniors when the Mocs take the floor on Wednesday night against Wofford. Well, the last home game that is not in the SoCon Tournament or a postseason tournament of any kind.

Jeff Smith, Jeremy Saffore, and DeAntre Jefferson will be remembered, as they will probably start in this showdown. That means that Bell, Jefferson, Saffore, Smith, and either Wattad or Taylor will probably start this game for the Mocs.

The Mocs turned a 26 points loss into a 16 point win when they battled Furman on Monday night. They will try to turn a 32 point loss at Wofford into a win on Wednesday night.

Noah Dahlman is one of the top players in the conference. He shoots 62.1% from the floor and scores 20.3 points per game. He also averages 5.4 rebounds per game. This guy is very dangerous, and was the main reason that the Terriers won the SoCon Tournament last year. He is trying to be the reason that the Terriers have another March to remember this year, his final one.

Cameron Rundles also averages in double figures with 13.4 points per game. He shoots 40% from three point range and averages 2.6 assists per game. Jamar Diggs averages 12.4 points per game to go with 3.2 assists per game. Kevin Giltner is shooting 41% from three point range, and Brad Loesing is shooting 39.7% from three point range. Tim Johnson leads the conference in rebounding, with 8.7 rebounds per game.

Wofford is 30th in the nation in field goal percentage, and 87th in points per game. They are 311th in rebounds per game.

In the first match-up, Diggs, Rundles, and Dahlman combined for 69 of the Terriers 88 points. They also outrebounded the Mocs by seven, even though Wofford is in the bottom part of the country in rebounding, and the Mocs are ranked 22nd in the country. Wofford shot 57.6% from the field against the Mocs the first time around.

The Mocs played their best defense of the year against Furman on Monday night. They could use another great defensive and rebounding night.

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebound. The Mocs rebounded on Monday night against Furman. They did not rebound against Wofford the first time around. If the Mocs rebound well, they will be in this game until the end.
--Guarding Dahlman, Rundles, and Diggs. Make someone else beat you if you are the Mocs. They scored 69 of their 88 points in the first meeting. Loesing, Johnson, and Giltner are dangerous but the keys is Dahlman Rundles, and Diggs.
--Bell's play. He's been turning the ball over too much lately. He needs to stop the turnovers and start to show the Keegan Bell that was so good early in SoCon play.
--Chris Early's energy. He brought it Monday night. Bring it again.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Be very pleased to have avenged both embarrassing road SoCon losses.
--Wonder if there is any way the Mocs can still squeak out the SoCon North title.
--Celebrate 9-0 at home in SoCon play.
--Remember the best moments of Jeff Smith, Jeremy Saffore, and DeAntre Jefferson.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Hope that Wofford ends up in the other half of the bracket in the SoCon Tournament.
--Wonder why the Mocs are so up and down.
--Remember the best moments of Jeff Smith, Jeremy Saffore, and DeAntre Jefferson.
--Sigh, take a deep breath, go to sleep, and remember that tomorrow is another day.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Wattad and Taylor will combine for at least 40 points.
--Early will score in double figures.
--Rundles, Diggs, and Dahlman will score over 50 points.
--The Mocs will dominate the boards.
--Mocs 77, Wofford 68. The Mocs will take over the boards and that will be the main reason that they will win this game. Bell will be better than he has been lately. This is going to be a close game, but the Mocs will find a way to get it done.

GO MOCS!

RPI Rankings

According to RealTimeRPI.com:

1) College of Charleston 64
2) Furman 115
3) Wofford 144
4) Davidson 150
5) Western Carolina 161
6) Appalachian State 192
7) Chattanooga 198
8) Elon 265
9) Samford 281
10) The Citadel 301
11) UNC-Greensboro 303
12) Georgia Southern 339

SoCon Rank: 19

Predicted Overall Record: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Record: 12-6

GO MOCS!

KenPom Rankings

According to KenPom.com:

1) College of Charleston 66
2) Wofford 129
3) Furman 146
4) Davidson 147
5) Western Carolina 182
6) Appalachian State 227
7) Elon 244
8) Chattanooga 257
9) UNC-Greensboro 284
10) The Citadel 285
11) Samford 311
12) Georgia Southern 325

SoCon Rank: 21

Predicted Overall Record: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Record: 12-6

GO MOCS!

Three Point Play

1) College of Charleston clinched the SoCon South Division on Monday night with the win over Samford. So, what happens now as they go on the road to take on Appalachian State and Western Carolina? Will they be motivated to win them both? The Mocs were in this situation back in 2009, and lost both of the games at Western Carolina and Appalachian State. The Cougars probably find a way to come up with a split in these battles. But they are going to the NIT even if they don't win the SoCon Tournament.

2) UNC-Greensboro lost another close battle. When will they come up with a close win again? The Spartans are now in big trouble in the battle for the fourth seed in the North. They need Elon to lose to both Davidson and Georgia Southern, and the Spartans need to win both of them to get the fourth seed. I still maintain that they are not a team anyone wants to see opposite them in the bracket in their first game. If they really do get the fifth seed from the North, that means a first round battle with Davidson, and if they win, a battle with the number one seed from the North next, either Western Carolina or Chattanooga. They should be involved in a very exciting first round game.

3) Suddenly, Wofford-Chattanooga has no meaning to the Terriers. If the Terriers win, they still have to beat Furman to get the two seed from the South. If the Terriers lose, they have to beat Furman to get the two seed from the South. It doesn't make any difference. The winner of the Furman-Wofford game on Saturday is definitely getting the two seed from the South following the Paladins loss tonight. Western Carolina can clinch the North Division by Thursday if the Mocs lose to Wofford on Wednesday and the Catamounts beat The Citadel on Thursday night. If the Mocs win on Wednesday, then the North Division will come down to the final day. The Mocs will have to beat Samford and have Western Carolina lose to College of Charleston to win the division. If the Mocs one more game, and Western wins one more game, then Western clinches the North. The three great races heading into the final week became much clearer after tonight's games.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Mocs 75, Furman 59

The Mocs played their best game in a while to come up with this win over one of the two teams that I consider the favorite in the SoCon Tournament tonight. It was a dominating performance. Furman never really got close in the second half.

The Mocs shot 48.9% from the floor against the best defensive team in the conference. They held the Paladins (who shot over 50% in Greenville earlier this year) to 38.6% shooting. They outrebounded the Paladind by fourteen. They turned the ball over twelve times, which is not an outrageous total.

This game featured Chris Early rising to his stardom. He scored 23 points and had eight rebounds. Keegan Bell scored 14 points and had four assists, while Omar Wattad also had 14 and Ricky Taylor had eleven. Those four played brilliantly in this game. DeAntre Jefferson only had five points and three rebounds, but the big man had three assists, which is a big key for him going forward.

You want me to nitpick? Fine- I will. They let Noah States make 8 of 10 shots. Bell turned the ball over five times, which is unacceptable, and was not how he was playing just a couple of weeks ago.

But it's hard to nitpick when Jordan Miller and Amu Saaka combine to shoot 4 of 23 from the floor, score 12 points and eight rebounds. The Mocs defense was tremendous, and it was an all-around team effort. The Mocs rebounding effort was there, and they had 13 assists on 22 made baskets. Not bad.

The Mocs are still tied for the North Division lead with a home game against Wofford and a trip to Samford left on the schedule. Western Carolina hosts The Citadel and College of Charleston, who will have nothing to play for when they play the Catamounts other than momentum going into the tournament. So Western Carolina's road seems relatively easy. Can the Mocs come up with the division title? Even if they don't, can they just get to 13-5 and be tied for the second best record in the conference behind College of Charleston?

The Mocs played great basketball tonight. The hustle and energy was there. The Mocs are now 8-0 against SoCon teams at home. With the tournament coming to Chattanooga in about a week and a half, the Mocs have to feel pretty good. They needed a win like this- and they needed to performance like this against a Furman team that hammered them earlier.

People are going to start fearing the Mocs if they play like this over the last week. The Blackout was a success. The Mocs are finally playing up to their potential.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Western Carolina 11-5
2) Chattanooga 11-5
3) Appalachian State 8-8
4) Elon 6-10
5) UNC-Greensboro 5-11
6) Samford 4-13

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 14-2
2) Wofford 12-4
3) Furman 12-5
4) Davidson 8-8
5) The Citadel 5-11
6) Georgia Southern 1-15

Battle of North vs. South

NORTH at SOUTH
South 15, North 5

SOUTH at NORTH
North 11, South 8

NORTH vs. SOUTH
South 23, North 16

ANALYSIS: The South moves one win away from clinching at least a tie for the title, and two wins away from winning the season series outright. Of course, with how dominant people thought the South would be against the North, this does not necessarily qualify. The North needs to come up with about six more wins to really be respectable.

SoCon Monday

College of Charleston 75, Samford 49
Chattanooga 75, Furman 59
Western Carolina 70, UNC-Greensboro 66

Three Point Play

1) One week is left to determine everything in the SoCon races. Really there are only three spots left undecided. The 1/2 spot in the North is up for grabs between Western Carolina and Chattanooga. The 2/3 spot in the South is between Furman and Wofford. The 4/5 spot in the North is down to between Elon and UNCG. Those are the biggest battles for spots left in the SoCon Tournament. Should be an interesting week as we sort those out.

2) Tonight, all three of the above mentioned races start being sorted out. Western Carolina goes to UNCG, in a game that both teams have to have. Also, Chattanooga hosts Furman, in a game both teams need badly. Samford also visits College of Charleston, as the Cougars look to clinch the South with a win over the Bulldogs. So, tonight should be a very good night of basketball. UNCG has a free webcast of the game, and the Mocs game is obviously available on Chattanooga All-Access- for you Mocs fans out there.

3) The 20th ranked conference is a nice start and 5-0 yesterday was very nice. On the whole, the conference went 5-3 out of conference last week. It wasn't a bad week for the SoCon on the whole, and it probably helps their national perception- at least to some degree. College of Charleston is starting to sneak to the periphery of the at-large discussion. They have an RPI of 62- higher than Virginia Tech's at the moment, a team almost everyone includes in the bubble talk. Yes the Cougars are a major longshot for an at large bid. But if they win their next four games and then get upset by, say, Chattanooga in the title game by a point, then the Cougars RPI may be in the low 40s. That is probably too low to have a legit claim to an at-large, but they will probably get mentioned in the Selection room, which makes them at least an interesting team.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Wofford Preview: Black and Blue

It's a Blackout! The Mocs will probably be wearing all black uniforms, and the fans are encouraged to wear all black.

But it's the Mocs that come home black and blue. When we last saw the Mocs in McKenzie, they were winning their third straight game, and were sitting at 14-10 overall.

They hit the road for four games. The Mocs lost to Davidson, Western Carolina, Appalachian State, Georgia Tech, the flu, the refs, the league, and Lady Luck. Needless to say, it was not a good road trip.

However, it was not a complete loss. In some ways, the Mocs have played their three most encouraging games in a row in a long time over their last three games. The losses to Western Carolina and Appalachian State were on back-to-back nights while still battling the flu. The Georgia Tech loss was a single digit loss in which they hung in the game the entire night. Will the Mocs be able to come up with a good performance and a win at home, after having just played once in the last nine days?

Furman has been hot lately. Amu Saaka is the Paladins best player. He's scoring nearly 17 points per game with over six rebounds per game. Noah States and Jordan Miller also are scoring over double digits as well. Darryl Evans has turned in over three assists a contest.

The big thing to look at is the other match-up between these two teams this year. Furman dominated 85-59. Saaka was in double figures with 30 points. Colin Reddick came off the bench to score ten. Jordan Miller actually had a bad game. He shot 2 of 10 from the floor and 1 of 7 from three point range and scored just six points. Saaka and Reddick each added eight rebounds. The Mocs outrebounded Furman in their first meeting, but the Mocs shot just 33.9% from the floor and just 3 of 22 from three point range, a paltry 13.6%.

Jeremy Saffore was the leading scorer for the Mocs in that contest, scoring 11 points, while DeAntre Jefferson was the only other Moc in double figures with 10. Omar Wattad was 2 of 12 from the floor and 0 for 10 from three point range.

There is precedence for the Mocs playing better at home than on the road against opponents this year. Against Austin Peay, the Mocs lost on a last second three at home. On the road, the Mocs lost by 32. They will need a similar home-road split against Furman to be able to hang around with the Paladins.

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. As usual, if the Mocs don't rebound, they don't have a chance.
--Control Saaka inside. He scored 30 against the Mocs the first time. They have to come up with a way to hold him down.
--Shooting. The Mocs were terrible shooting the first time around. They have to make more shots this time around.
--Legs. Furman played on Saturday. The Mocs have not played since Wednesday. Will the Mocs be the fresher team and able to win this game?
--Bell. Keegan Bell suddenly has gone flat in their last three games. He has to show up strong and ready to go for the Mocs to have a real shot to win this game.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Celebrate! One win closer to the goal of winning the last three games.
--Hope that UNC-Greensboro won to help the Mocs take over first place in the division.
--Wonder why the Mocs are so much better at home than on the road.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Be angry about the Mocs losing their fifth straight.
--Hope that the Mocs can get it back on track before the SoCon Tournament.
--Be glad that the Mocs have already locked up a bye.
--Sigh, take a deep breath, go to bed, and remember that tomorrow is another day.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Saaka will score fewer than 30 points this time around.
--Omar Wattad will score more than 6.
--Jeremy Saffore will not be the Mocs leading scorer.
--Wattad, Bell, Taylor, and Early will have decent games.
--The Mocs will play significantly better than they did the first time around.
--Mocs 74, Furman 73. The Mocs keep on pulling out close games at home. No reason to think that is going to change. The Mocs are more than capable of blowing this one, but they also have the ability to win this game. Wattad will score 20, and Bell will come up with a bunch of assists with not many turnovers, and Taylor and Early will come up with some big plays in the final minute to pull off the win.

GO MOCS!

SoCon The Week Ahead

MONDAY
Western Carolina at UNC-Greensboro 7:00
Furman at Chattanooga 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
Samford at College of Charleston 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South) (CSS)

WEDNESDAY
Wofford at Chattanooga 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)

THURSDAY
College of Charleston at Appalachian State 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
Elon at Davidson 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
UNC-Greensboro at Georgia Southern 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
The Citadel at Western Carolina 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)

SATURDAY
Wofford at Furman 2:00 (SoCon Monster Game of the Week) (SoCon Saturday on SportSouth)
The Citadel at Appalachian State 2:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
College of Charleston at Western Carolina 4:30 (Battle of North vs. South)
Chattanooga at Samford 5:00
UNC-Greensboro at Davidson 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
Elon at Georgia Southern 7:30 (Battle of North vs. South)

ANALYSIS

This week, there are fourteen conference games, and eleven of them feature North teams vs. South teams. So the battle for the best record between the two divisions will come down to this week. The South is the big favorite, but the North still has a shot heading into the final week.

The biggest battles left in seeding are Chattanooga and Western Carolina fighting for the number one and number two spots out of the North, and Furman and Wofford battling for the number two or number three seed out of the South. With Wofford travelling to Furman on the last day of the regular season, that game is the SoCon Monster Game of the Week. Both Wofford and Furman take on Chattanooga this week, too. That means that there is a lot of meaning in those early week games between Chattanooga and the Terriers and Paladins.

Of course, College of Charleston's trip to Western Carolina could be a match-up of the two number seeds in the conference. Also, the Catamounts travel to UNC-Greensboro, and the Spartans have been playing well. Will they finally be able to pull one out against one of the better teams in the conference? That is a really interesting Monday night game as well.

What will I be doing Monday night? Watching the Mocs take on Furman on Chattanooga All Access, but keeping an eye on the free feed of the Western Carolina-UNCG game. Should be a thrilling final week of the regular season. Hard to believe it's already here. Two weeks from tonight we will be on the eve of the tournament. Can't wait.

SoCon Power Rankings

1) College of Charleston
2) Furman
3) Wofford
4) Western Carolina
5) Davidson
6) Chattanooga
7) Appalachian State
8) Elon
9) UNC-Greensboro
10) Samford
11) The Citadel
12) Georgia Southern

ANALYSIS: Western Carolina moves up thanks to sweeping through Appalachian State and just in general how well they are playing. Chattanooga stays ahead of Appalachian State because the Mountaineers were unable to come up with a home win over Western Carolina. Elon is ahead of UNCG because they swept the Spartans. Taking the whole season into account, The Citadel has to be ahead of Georgia Southern, even if the Eagles are playing better than the Bulldogs right now.

RPI Rankings

According to RealTimeRPI.com:

1) College of Charleston 62
2) Furman 114
3) Wofford 145
4) Davidson 150
5) Western Carolina 165
6) Appalachian State 192
7) Chattanooga 209
8) Elon 270
9) Samford 287
10) UNC-Greensboro 299
11) The Citadel 303
12) Georgia Southern 340

SoCon Rank: 20

Predicted Overall Record: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Record: 12-6

GO MOCS!

KenPom. Rankings

According to KenPom.com:

1) College of Charleston 69
2) Wofford 129
3) Furman 132
4) Davidson 146
5) Western Carolina 185
6) Appalachian State 230
7) Elon 244
8) Chattanooga 272
9) The Citadel 285
10) UNC-Greensboro 287
11) Samford 309
12) Georgia Southern 324

SoCon Rank: 22

Predicted Overall Record: 15-16
Predicted SoCon Record: 11-7

GO MOCS!

Three Point Play

1) What does BracketBuster Saturday mean? For the SoCon, it means 5-0. No- this does not put any team into the Bubble Watch or anything, unless College of Charleston and their current RPI (according to live-rpi.com) of 63 somehow find their way onto the soft bubble. But what it does do is it helps the whole SoCon move up in national perception and in the conference RPI. Again according to live-rpi.com, the SoCon is up to #20 in the conference rank, just a nose behind the Northeast Conference and the Summit League. What does that mean? It means that if College of Charleston loses in the SoCon Tournament and does not receive the automatic bid, there is a good chance that if that team is Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Davidson, Furman, or Wofford, that they will maybe not receive a #16 seed. We'll have to wait and see.

2) Georgia Southern got their first SoCon win of the year in brilliant fashion. The Eagles turned the ball over just five times, and that was the key to the Eagles win. Again, there is no way that they catch The Citadel in the SoCon South, but there is little doubt that they are currently playing better than the Bulldogs. If Georgia Southern could somehow beat Elon and/or UNC-Greensboro at home this week, then the Eagles will have some real positive momentum heading into the first round of the SoCon Tournament in Chattanooga. Not sure that The Citadel has a shot in their first round game with how they are playing.

3) Samford's loss to Furman was equally painful. The Bulldogs allowed a 15-1 run to end the game and missed a statement victory. The Paladins are right in the thick of the bye race as they come to Chattanooga on Monday night, and Samford is pretty much locked into the six seed out of the North now. The Bulldogs are not a terrible team, but they are not a good team either. They are going to be looking for some positive momentum when they head to College of Charleston and battle Chattanooga at home this weekend. And, yes, I think THEY have a better shot to win their first round game than The Citadel. That even includes that The Citadel will be playing either Elon or UNC-Greensboro, while Samford will be playing either Wofford or Furman.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Western Carolina 10-5
2) Chattanooga 10-5
3) Appalachian State 8-8
4) Elon 6-10
5) UNC-Greensboro 5-10
6) Samford 4-12

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 13-2
2) Furman 12-4
3) Wofford 12-4
4) Davidson 8-8
5) The Citadel 5-11
6) Georgia Southern 1-15

TIES: Western Carolina currently owns the tiebreaker over Chattanooga thanks to their sweep of Appalachian State and the Mocs split. Furman currently owns the tiebreaker over Furman since they beat them head-to-head. Elon and UNCG are tied in the loss column. The Phoenix swept the Spartans, so have a one game edge basically on the Spartans right now.

Battle of North vs. South

NORTH at SOUTH
South 14, North 5

SOUTH at NORTH
North 10, South 8

NORTH vs. SOUTH
South 22, North 15

ANALYSIS: Samford nearly beat Furman on Saturday, jumping out to a big lead but giving it all back with a 15-1 Paladin run at the end. The North needs a lot of help to turn things around and get close to the South in these standings. The South is starting to assert themselves. The North could use a nice 7-4 finish next week to get this thing more than respectable.

SoCon Saturday

Furman 70, Samford 63
Georgia Southern 65, The Citadel 53
Elon 99, UNC-Greensboro 90
Western Carolina 81, Eastern Kentucky 74
College of Charleston 85, Vermont 70
Appalachian State 82, High Point 81
Wofford 66, Ball State 61
Davidson 71, Presbyterian 65

Three Point Play

1) The best BracketBuster game has to be College of Charleston's battle with Vermont. It's nationally televised. Vermont is ranked #71 and the Cougars are #77. This should be a great game. As much as it pains me- we in the SoCon should all be rooting for College of Charleston. The conference is 0-3 so far this week in out of conference games. We desperately need a nationally televised win to get the conference some respect.

2) The biggest conference game is probably Elon hosting UNC-Greensboro. The winner takes command in the battle for fourth in the North, while the loser falls behind in that battle. If Elon wins, they will own the tiebreaker and be up by half a game on the Spartans. If UNCG wins, they will be up by 1.5 games on the Phoenix. This could be a very good SoCon game.

3) Is this the night? Is this when Georgia Southern finally gets their first conference win? Tonight, they battle The Citadel at home. This really could be the first SoCon win of the year for the Eagles. The Citadel has really been struggling lately, and Georgia Southern has been playing slightly better. In fact, Georgia Southern hosts both UNC-Greensboro and Elon later on this week. Is it possible that the Eagles will be able to pull of three straight wins heading into the SoCon Tournament? It's possible. That would not get them out of the sixth seed in the South, but it would build up some momentum heading into their showdown in the first round two weeks from today- likely against Appalachian State.

Friday, February 18, 2011

BracketBuster Saturday Preview

The SoCon has six BracketBuster games on Saturday. Let's briefly look at each one:

Eastern Kentucky at Western Carolina, 2:00- Eastern Kentucky has an RPI of 250 and Western Carolina has an RPI of 181. However, the Catamouns are the fifth place team in the OVC. They are 8-3 in their last eleven games. The Colonels move at a slow pace and don't rebound well. The Catamounts have moved up a lot since this game was announced, while Eastern Kentucky has only moved up some. Both have a shot at the NCAA- but the Colonels are the underdog here.

Vermont at College of Charleston, 5:00 ESPNU- Vermont has an RPI of 71 and College of Charleston has an RPI of 77. The Catamounts have won ten straight games. They also play just one game after this one, against the second best team in the America East conference that they already lost to on the road. They also tend to slow the game down, but are a good shooting team and a good rebounding team. They lost by 16 at Connecticut earlier this year. Charleston is the favorite- but this ought to be a good game.

Appalachian State at High Point, 7:00- High Point's RPI is 252 while Appalachian State's RPI is 209. The Panthers have not been a great home team, with a 7-4 home record. There is a two point win over an awful Radford team in the bunch. Nick Barbour is averaging 17.3 points per game, and has been very good. Appalachian State is probably the favorite, but going on the road in this one will not make this one easy by any means.

Ball State at Wofford, 7:00- Ball State's RPI is 184 while Wofford's RPI is 154. After the Cardinals won seven straight games, they have now lost six of their last eight. They are only a half game behind Western Michigan in the West Division of the MAC. If they win the division, they will get one of the top two seeds in the MAC Tournament. Wofford is the better team and is playing better right now and is at home.

Davidson at Presbyterian, 7:30- Presbyterian's RPI is 188 and Davidson's is 166. The Blue Hose have won two straight games, including a thirteen point home win over a pretty good Charleston Southern team. They are not bad, but they are clearly not as good as Davidson. They beat Auburn and Wake Forest, and only lost to Kansas State by nine and Missouri by 15. Could Presbyterian win? Absolutely. But they are not the favorite, particularly with how well the Wildcats have been playing.

Predicted Record: 4-1- though I'm not quite sure where the loss comes from. The SoCon has the favorite in each of these contests. If I had to pick one loss, it would probably be Appalachian State losing at High Point. They played a tough, emotionally draining game on Thursday night, and now have to go on the road. Sounds like a possible loss to me.

RPI Rankings

According to RealTimeRPI.com:

1) College of Charleston 77
2) Furman 119
3) Wofford 154
4) Davidson 166
5) Western Carolina 181
6) Appalachian State 209
7) Chattanooga 212
8) Elon 275
9) Samford 292
10) The Citadel 293
11) UNC-Greensboro 294
12) Georgia Southern 340

SoCon Rank: 23

Predicted Overall Record: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Record: 12-6

GO MOCS!

KenPom Rankings

According to KenPom.com:

1) College of Charleston 71
2) Wofford 126
3) Furman 129
4) Davidson 149
5) Western Carolina 183
6) Appalachian State 226
7) Elon 245
8) The Citadel 276
9) Chattanooga 277
10) UNC-Greensboro 285
11) Samford 309
12) Georgia Southern 326

SoCon Rank: 22

Predicted Overall Record: 15-16
Predicted SoCon Record: 11-7

GO MOCS!

Three Point Play

1) College of Charleston has clinched a bye from the South, and are just a hair away from clinching the division. All they need to do is win one more game or have Wofford and Furman lose one more game each. The Cougars host Samford on Monday, so that should be enough to get the division. If it's not, the Cougars will be rooting for the Mocs to beat Wofford and Furman on Monday and Wednesday and help them close
down the division.

2) Western Carolina went on a 15-0 run late against Appalachian State to come up with the season sweep against the Mountaineers and take the division lead away from the Mocs. The Catamounts have reached the point where they may be the favorite to win the division, because they are probably favored in each of their final three games, and the Mocs may not be favored in any of them except for possibly Samford. The once seemingly insurmountable lead has been surmounted. And doesn't that foul call with a second left a week ago seem big now?

3) The Citadel has gone from trendy pick to make a run to trendy pick to be done quick. They were solidly in fourth place just a few weeks ago. Now they are out of it. Thiis team had completely fallen apart. In fact, I now think that The Citadel has less of a shot to win a game than Georgia Southern. Ouch. The Bulldogs go visit the Eagles next week. The Eagles might just be the favorite. Double ouch.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Mocs Clinch Bye

With Western Carolina's upset win over Appalachian State, the Mocs have clinched a first round bye in the SoCon Tournament, as has Western Carolina, as well. The problem? The Catamounts also now own the tiebreaker over the Mocs at the moment. They are in first place with just three games left. They have to go to UNC-Greensboro, and then play The Citadel and College of Charleston at home, while the Mocs have Furman and Wofford at home and Samford on the road.

Western Carolina
Remaining Home Opponents in SoCon Play: 18-12
Remaining Road Opponents in SoCon Play: 5-9
Total Record: 23-21

Chattanooga
Remaining Home Opponents in SoCon Play: 23-8
Remaining Road Opponents in SoCon Play: 4-11
Total Record: 27-19

So the Mocs have a tougher road the rest of the way- mainly because of the home games. Will College of Charleston be ready to play against Western Carolina in the final regular season game, when the Cougars are likely to have clinched the number seed already? That could play a huge role in who wins the North.

All in all, this is good for the Mocs. They needed to get a bye. Since no team has ever won the tournament with four games in four days, the Mocs needed to get the bye badly to have a chance. And they did it.

After their start it would be a major disappointment to not win the North. I tend to think that if they take care of business the rest of the way, they will win the division. But they have to win all three of them. It's going to be very tough. Not sure if they can do it or not.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Western Carolina 10-5
2) Chattanooga 10-5
3) Appalachian State 8-8
4) UNC-Greensboro 5-9
5) Elon 5-10
6) Samford 4-11

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 13-2
2) Wofford 12-4
3) Furman 11-4
4) Davidson 8-8
5) The Citadel 5-10
6) Georgia Southern 0-15

SoCon Thursday

Western Carolina 80, Appalachian State 75
College of Charleston 85, The Citadel 63

Three Point Play

1) Davidson maintained their hot streak against Georgia Southern. They completely dominated the Eagles, something that has not been done lately despite the fact that Georgia Southern has been playing close in a lot of games lately. It's going to be very tough for Davidson to win four games in four days in Chattanooga in the SoCon Tourney, but they are one of the more capable teams ever to pull that off.

2) Wofford has a leg up on Furman for the second seed now- but maybe not for long. Furman has a lot of advantages over Wofford for the tiebreaker. If the two finish tied, and Wofford beats Furman at Furman in the final game of the regular season, then Furman still may have the final tiebreaker edge (RPI Ranking). If the two finish tied, and Furman beats Wofford in that game, then Furman owns the tiebreaker because of the sweep of the Terriers. Wofford just about has to win out, or have no more than one loss, and then only if Furman has two losses. Furman just needs to have an equal record to Wofford the rest of the way. Pressure is on the Terriers.

3) It's a rivalry kind of day in the SoCon. The Battle of Charleston is tonight as College of Charleston goes to suddenly cold The Citadel. Appalachian State hosts Western Carolina. These are two good SoCon rivalries. They both have division title implications. This should be a great set of SoCon games that Moc fans should pay attention to, especially the all important Appy-Western game.

Georgia Tech 62, Mocs 53

This was an utterly frustrating game, which is odd, since the Mocs lost to an ACC team on the road by nine points, and never trailed by more than eleven.

But the frustrating thing is that listening to the game gave the feel that the Mocs would in fact be the better team on a neutral court on an average night. Ricky Taylor made just 5 of 16 from the floor. Keegan Bell had four turnovers and just two assists and just two points. The Mocs made just 5 of 27 from three point range. Chris Early had three points, went 0 for 4 from the free throw line, though he did have eight rebounds.

That is all way below what we should expect from the Mocs at this point. Twenty turnovers will do you in as well. Plus, when you make 6 of 11 free throws, while your opponent makes 17 of 27 from the line, then you aren't going to do that well either.

The Mocs did outrebound Georgia Tech 35-31, and seem to have corrected that problem that plagued them two weeks ago. They have gotten back to rebounding the basketball, and are looking better and better on that front. That is important, because that is what the Mocs do well. They have to rebound to have a chance.

They also managed to hold the Yellow Jackets to 40% shooting and 22.7% shooting from three point range. But as I said in the preview, the Jackets are not a great shooting team, and they are not a big team, so the Mocs should have been able to rebound with them, and should have been able to hold Georgia Tech down shooting-wise.

But there were too many turnovers. And Bell, Taylor, and Early all did not play well. When three of your five best players don't play well, you aren't going to win very often.

DeAntre Jefferson showed he belonged with 14 points and 9 rebounds. Omar Wattad scored 18 points with six rebounds and three steals. Glen Rice Jr. and Iman Shumpert combined for 46 for Georgia Tech.

None of it matters now. The Mocs have lost four straight, even though they played much better on this road trip, especially considering all the flu-related problems the Mocs had. Beat Furman, Wofford, and Samford, and the Mocs will be the North Division champs, and will be considered one of the favorites heading into the SoCon Tournament. That's where the focus has to be.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Monster Game of the Week: Western Carolina at Appalachian State

The North Division race heats up on Thursday night in Boone, North Carolina, as Western Carolina travels to take on their rival Mountaineers. If Western Carolina wins, then both the Mocs and the Catamounts clinch a bye in the first round of the Southern Conference Tournament. If Appalachian State wins, the Mocs will have a full game lead on Western Carolina, an the Mountaineers will be within one game of the Catamounts.

So this game is pretty important on a lot of levels.

Mike Williams and Trey Sumler are the teams leading scorer and the team leaders in assists. Williams is averaging 14.7 points per game, and 3.6 rebounds and assists per game. Sumler shoots nearly 42 percent from three point range. Richie Gordon and Harouna Mutombo are the team's leading rebounders, averaging 5.3 and 5.1 per game.

Appalachian State is lead, as everyone knows, by Donald Sims and Omar Carter. They combine to average over 37 points per game, or more than half that they score. They are good shooters, and are tough to contain for any team. Their continued improved play makes them one of the favorites in the SoCon Tournament. Andre Williamson is the team's leading rebounder, with 6.4 per game.

The Mountaineers have won four straight, while the Catamounts have also won four straight. The first time they played in Cullowhee, Mike Williams made a jumper with less than a second left to give Western a 79-78 win.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Sims and Carter will combine for over 40.
--Williams and Sumler will combine for more than 30.
--This will be another very tight battle between these two rivals.
--Appalachian State 74, Western Carolina 69. This will be a tight battle, but Appalachian State is playing good basketball right now. At home, they will find a way to get this done, and turn this into an exciting three team race down the stretch of the SoCon race.

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Chattanooga 10-5
2) Western Carolina 9-5
3) Appalachian State 8-7
4) UNC-Greensboro 5-9
5) Elon 5-10
6) Samford 4-11

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 12-2
2) Wofford 12-4
3) Furman 11-4
4) Davidson 8-8
5) The Citadel 5-9
6) Georgia Southern 0-15

Battle of North vs. South

NORTH at SOUTH
South 14, North 5

SOUTH at NORTH
North 10, South 7

NORTH vs. SOUTH
South 21, North 15

SoCon Wednesday

Davidson 83, Georgia Southern 56
Georgia Tech 62, Chattanooga 53
Wofford 81, Samford 68

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Three Point Play

1) UNC-Greensboro played with Miami for a half before falling by twenty to the ACC school. The Spartans have potential to be like Elon from 2008, when Davidson won the SoCon Tournament over the surprising Phoenix. UNCG can get that far in the tournament. They have those kinds of players. Next year, the North will be loaded, as Chattanooga, Western Carolina, Appalachian State, and UNC-Greensboro all will battle for the top two spots in the division.

2) Two pretty good South teams (Wofford and Davidson) take on the two last place teams (Samford and Georgia Southern) tonight. Georgia Southern will be looking for their first SoCon win when they visit Davidson. The Eagles have been getting closer, even against the better teams, but it seems unbelievably unlikely that they come up with their first SoCon win at Davidson. Wofford's visit to Samford is more intriguing. The Bulldogs are never an easy team to play, but the Terriers should be able to win- especially since they are in such a critical battle for a first round bye in the SoCon Tournament. Samford is in their own battle- trying to get up to fourth in the North. A win over Wofford would go a long way towards- and help the North a lot in the Battle of North vs. South.

3) This is the time to start really trying to get hot for the tournament. This is the time you want to be playing your best basketball. Davidson is red hot right now, and a hot pick to be a surprise team to win the tournament. But just two weeks ago, it was The Citadel that was red hot and had walked into Davidson and won. They haven't won since. So a lot can change in two weeks. Who gets hot? Does it start tomorrow with a team like Samford? Or the Mocs? Or Wofford? Or even Georgia Southern? Does Davidson stay red hot? Does The Citadel get hot again? What about Appalachian State and Western Carolina, who are both winning well right now? This is a very important time to really see who is playing well at the end of the year. Not that it matters- the last time the tourney was in Chattanooga, the Mocs lost their last three games before winning the tournament.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Georgia Tech Preview: If You're Going To Play An ACC Team....

Georgia Tech has lost six out of seven games and five straight games. They were outscored 74.4-63.2 in those five losses. They lost 102-77 to Virginia Tech in their last game. Only two of those five were road games. Three of the losses were at home. On top of that Brian Oliver, who was averaging 10.9 points and 4.5 rebounds per game, is out with an injury.

So, do the Mocs have a chance in this game? You have to admit, if ever there was a good time to play an ACC team on the road, this is it for the Mocs.

Of course, that assumes a handful of things:

1) The flu bug that decimated the Mocs over the weekend is now over. The Mocs will be one hundred percent healthy and ready to play.

2) The Mocs will show up and play to win the game, unlike they have sometimes done out of conference games right in the heart of the conference schedule (see Creighton).

The Mocs will play just one game over nine days and this is it. This shapes up as a game the Mocs can win if they get things to break right.

Iman Shumpert is 6-5 and weighs 212 pounds and is a guard. Shumpert is the team's leading scorer, rebounder, leader in assists, and steals. Shumpert is scoring 17.4 points per game, 6.0 rebounds per game, 3.5 assists per game, and 2.8 steals per game. However, he takes a lot of shots (14 a game) and threes (5 a game) and does not shoot great. He is making just 28% of his threes, and just over 40% from the floor. He did make 6 of 13 from three against Virginia Tech in his last game, but that was the first time this year he had made more than two.

Glen Rice Jr. is the second leading scorer. He is averaging 13.5 points per game, but shoots just 31.5% from three point range and 42% from the floor. He's another bigger guard, though at 6-5. That could present some match-up problems eventually to the Mocs, who can't quite match-up in height to the Yellow Jackets.

Daniel Miller is a critical inside presence. He is 6-11 and a freshman. He averages 4.8 rebounds per game, and shoots 49.5 percent from the floor. But the Yellow Jackets forget about him sometimes. In two of his last four games, he did not score, and scored just a combined twelve in the other two games. He also corralled just eleven rebounds in those four games. That's in nearly 26 minutes per game in those games. So he seems to disappear, which is unacceptable for a 6-11 player.

Georgia Tech beat North Carolina 78-58 back on January 16 in what is probably their best performance of the year. They forced 18 turnovers, and held North Carolina to 27.2% shooting from the floor. Only two players scored in double figures for the Yellow Jackets- Shumpert scored 30 and Rice scored 24.

Georgia Tech did lose to Kennesaw State at Kennesaw State two days before the Mocs went into the same arena and won. So there is some precedence here.

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs have done a pretty good job rebounding, even against big conference teams this year. They have to rebound well in order to have any shot at all of winning this game.
--Daniel Miller vs. DeAntre Jefferson, Jeremy Saffore. Miller is the type of guy who could produce big problems for the Mocs to guard. With the way the Mocs bigs tend to get into foul trouble, the Yellow Jackets should try to pound it in to Miller. If they do that, the Mocs need to have an answer. Not sure if they can find one or not.
--Shot selection. Omar Wattad and Ricky Taylor can shoot with Rice and Shumpert. No question that they can score with those two. But they need to let the game come to them and not force up bad shots. Georgia Tech is the 303rd ranked team in the country in field goal shooting. They could use some better shots too.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Yes! Beat an ACC team!
--Jump.
--Laugh.
--Remember that it is an out of conference game, and really doesn't matter nearly as much as the SoCon games coming up next week.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Be frustrated.
--Throw something.
--Be mad about the four game losing streak.
--Wonder if the Mocs can still win the SoCon North.
--Sigh, take a deep breath, go to bed, and remember that tomorrow is another day.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Keegan Bell and Omar Wattad will play their best game in several weeks as they get back to full strength after the flu bug.
--Daniel Miller will record a double-double.
--Glen Rice Jr. will make more three pointers than is typical.
--Georgia Tech 78, Mocs 67. My heart tells me the Mocs win this one. My gut tells me the Mocs find a way to pull this one out. My head tells me that Georgia Tech is an ACC team that has lost five straight games and is looking for a team to take their frustration out on. They are just a little too athletic. If Jefferson, Early, Burroughs, and Saffore outplay the Yellow Jackets bigs, I'll take my chances. If Wattad can score 30, then the Mocs could also pull it off. The Mocs will have a really bad eight minute stretch where they are outscored by 20, but will play well the rest of the way.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Tuesday

Miami (FL) 78, UNC-Greensboro 58

ANALYSIS: The Spartans were ahead late in the first half- and then they just fell apart. UNCG showed again why they can be a dangerous team in the SoCon Tournament- but also why they are probably a year away from really contending in the SoCon.

RPI Rankings

According to RealTimeRPI.com:

1) College of Charleston 77
2) Furman 118
3) Wofford 159
4) Davidson 163
5) Appalachian State 192
6) Western Carolina 195
7) Chattanooga 211
8) Elon 270
9) Samford 283
10) UNC-Greensboro 288
11) The Citadel 291
12) Georgia Southern 340

SoCon Rank: 21

Predicted Overall Record: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Record: 12-6

GO MOCS!

KenPom Rankings

According to KenPom.com:

1) College of Charleston 74
2) Furman 125
3) Wofford 127
4) Davidson 153
5) Western Carolina 187
6) Appalachian State 221
7) Elon 246
8) The Citadel 270
9) Chattanooga 277
10) UNC-Greensboro 279
11) Samford 304
12) Georgia Southern 326

SoCon Rank: 21

Predicted Overall Record: 15-16
Predicted SoCon Record: 11-7

GO MOCS!

Three Point Play

1) The Citadel lost to Savannah State on Monday night. A team that just two weeks ago looked like a darkhorse to make a run at a SoCon Tournament title behind Cameron Wells is now looking more and more like a team that could be one and done. The Bulldogs are not good. They don't look good. They have basically locked up the five seed from the South, which means they could easily be battling UNC-Greensboro (the current number four from the North) in the first round- a team that hammered them last week in Greensboro. Ugh.

2) The next two days feature two ACC-SoCon games, and I don't completely discount the SoCon teams from taking either one of them. Georgia Tech is not playing well right now and the Mocs will have a chance against them if they play really good basketball. But tonight's game between UNC-Greensboro and Miami is also a shot for the SoCon to fire a shot at the ACC. The Spartans played Clemson and Wake Forest very tight earlier in the year, showing signs of life. Miami is not unbeatable. Now that the Spartans are playing with more confidence, having won several games over the last month and a half, they could take out an ACC team.

3) Right now is about getting hot in the SoCon's final weeks before playing in the SoCon Tournament. Lots of teams have a real shot to get hot and gain momentum heading to Chattanooga. Davidson is the current hot team. But The Citadel was the hot team just a couple of weeks ago, and now they've lost it. Appalachian State, with all of their home games left, look like a team that is getting hot, and if they can sneak into a bye spot, they can make some real noise in the tournament.

Monday, February 14, 2011

New Feature

Beginning tomorrow morning, there will be a new feature on the site called "Three Point Play." It will run from today through the SoCon Tournament. There will be three comments on the Southern Conference at-large. Some of them will be better than others, obviously. But the point is to get a little bit of SoCon feel to the blog as the conference tournament approaches. I hope you enjoy the new bit....

GO MOCS!

Should We Care?

Does the Georgia Tech game this Wednesday matter?

One could certainly argue that it does not. After all, Georgia Tech is not a SoCon team, and it will not count in the conference standings.

But it does count in the overall record. If the Mocs win this game, it may help their seeding in the NCAA Tournament, if they manage to get that far.

With all the illness on the team last week, they can certainly use a game to get back to game speed and get their legs under them as well.

So, yes, this game matters. Does winning matter? Maybe- maybe not. But it certainly does mattter. It is impossible to ignore this game for the two reasons listed above.

But the beauty of this game is that the Mocs are only playing one game in a nine day span. And this is it. So there is no reason to rest anyone. They have plenty of time to rest. There's no reason to relax and not give it their all. This game is all there is. It's kind of like a Bracket Buster game in its own right.

The Mocs could use a win over a very average Georgia Tech suffering from an injury to a starter. And the Yellow Jackets lost to Kennesaw State this year, a team the Mocs beat on the road. Of course, Georgia Tech also beat North Carolina, just one of two ACC teams to do that. So, they have been up and down.

The Mocs can win this game. It sure would be nice to be competitive against an ACC team. Honestly, I think the Mocs will play better given the fact that they have not won their last couple of games. They will play better because the illness has them itching to play a good game. And they will try to win. I'm not sure Shulman would have gone hard core after this win if the Mocs had beaten Western and/or Appy. But thank to the flu, the Mocs are going to go after this one.

That's what I think anyway.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Monday

Savannah State 65, The Citadel 61 OT

ANALYSIS: Nothing to say except- thanks a lot Bulldogs! We all appreciate the effort!

Sunday, February 13, 2011

SoCon The Week Ahead

MONDAY
Savannah State at The Citadel 7:00

TUESDAY
Miami, FL at UNC-Greensboro 7:00

WEDNESDAY
Georgia Southern at Davidson 7:00
Wofford at Samford 8:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
Chattanooga at Georgia Tech 7:30

THURSDAY
College of Charleston at The Citadel 7:00
Western Carolina at Appalachian State 7:00 (SoCon Monster Game of the Week)

SATURDAY
Furman at Samford 5:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
The Citadel at Georgia Southern 7:00
UNC-Greensboro at Elon 8:00 (SoCon Saturday on SportSouth)
Eastern Kentukcy at Western Carolina 2:00
Vermont at College of Charleston 5:00 (ESPNU)
Appalachian State at High Point 7:00
Ball State at Wofford 7:00
Davidson at Presbyterian 7:30

ANALYSIS

It's a strange week in the SoCon, as there are just seven conference games this week. Two of the games are North vs. South- leaving eleven North vs. South match-ups for the final week. That means that the Battle of North vs. South (regardless of what happens this week) will come down to the final week. The South leads 20-15. Each division is trying to get to 25 to win the Battle of North vs. South. That means the South needs just five more, while the North needs ten more. Furman and Wofford both are big favorites at Samford this week. So we'll have to wait and see how that plays out.

The SoCon Monster Game of the Week is Western Carolina's visit to Appalachian State. The two teams are still hoping to win the North Division title, but the Mountaineers will need a lot of help to get it. However, if the Mountaineers beat Western Carolina, they can move into position to possibly steal a bye from the Catamounts in the North Division. Western won earlier on a last second shot. This game should come down to the wire as well.

We'll have analysis of the BracketBusters for the SoCon teams as the week progresses. Those will happen on Saturday.

There are eight out of conference games this week for the SoCon. The SoCon needs to come up with wins out of conference. It will help the conference RPI and help the national perception of the conference if they can have a good week out of conference. If that happens, the SoCon Tournament Champion can have a stronger case for a better seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Only two weeks left in the regular season. Three weeks from today will be Semifinal Sunday in the SoCon Tournament. It's getting very very close.

GO MOCS!

RPI Rankings

According to RealTimeRPI.com:

1) College of Charleston 77
2) Furman 118
3) Wofford 158
4) Davidson 161
5) Appalachian State 193
6) Western Carolina 202
7) Chattanooga 205
8) Elon 269
9) The Citadel 276
10) Samford 284
11) UNC-Greensboro 286
12) Georgia Southern 340

SoCon Rank: 21

Predicted Overall Record: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Record: 12-6

GO MOCS!

KenPom Rankings

According to KenPom.com:

1) College of Charleston 73
2) Furman 123
3) Wofford 126
4) Davidson 151
5) Western Carolina 185
6) Appalachian State 222
7) Elon 246
8) The Citadel 266
9) Chattanooga 276
10) UNC-Greensboro 277
11) Samford 304
12) Georgia Southern 325

SoCon Rank: 21

Predicted Overall Record: 15-16
Predicted SoCon Rank: 11-7

GO MOCS!

Appalachian State 78, Mocs 68

This is so frustrating. But the Mocs were playing on their second straight night still recovering from the flu bug against a good team on the road. And they lost their two road games to the two other best teams in the North by a combined total of eleven points in two nights.

So do we blame them for these losses? Or do we praise them for not getting obliterated in either game?

I don't know yet. That's the problem. This was a critical weekend, and the Mocs needed desperately to come up with a win. That was what made this flu so devastating. It just couldn't have come at a worse time for the Mocs.

Western is 6-2 in North Division play, while the Mocs are 7-2. So a tie could still go either way between those two. Appalachian State is 6-3 in North Division play. If the Mocs beat Samford or if Appalachian State loses on Thursday to Western Carolina, the Mocs will have the tiebreaker against the Mountaineers. Either one of those events would also clinch a first round bye for the Mocs.

Omar Wattad and Keegan Bell combined to shoot 5 of 18 tonight, including 2 of 13 from three point range. It was obvious that the team was tired in the second half. They had been outrebounding the Mountaineers up until the last ten minutes. They wound up getting outrebounded 32-30. DeAntre Jefferson scored 11 points and ten rebounds, a very nice double-double. Ricky Taylor scored 21 while Chris Early had 12.

The Mocs were up one at the half, and lead with about 12 minutes to play in the second half. But then a 14-0 run by Appy left the Mocs in a hole they could not climb out of. Omar Carter and Donald Sims combined to scored 41 points.

The Mocs do not play another conference game until Monday, February 21. That's nine days from now. They play Georgia Tech in-between. The Mocs now need to beat Wofford and Furman, and go on the road to beat Samford just to win the division.

How will the Mocs attack the Georgia Tech game given everything that happened this weekend? Unknown.

This game- the Mocs were slower to the loose balls in the second half and it cost them. It probably was at least partially sickness related. That's the hope.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Power Rankings

1) College of Charleston
2) Furman
3) Wofford
4) Davidson
5) Chattanooga
6) Western Carolina
7) Appalachian State
8) UNC-Greensboro
9) Elon
10) The Citadel
11) Samford
12) Georgia Southern

ANALYSIS: Davidson has been so hot, that they have to jump ahead of some of these teams. Chattanooga, Western Carolina, and Appalachian State are all unbelievably close. The Mocs just lost to Western and Appy, but they had previously beaten them, and they are still ahead of both teams in the standings. Very close. Appy hosts Western next Thursday. Elon jumps ahead of The Citadel thanks to their win over the Bulldogs, and Samford is just behind these two teams. UNC-Greensboro is clearly number eight at the moment. This is very complex to do at this stage. It seems to be getting more complicated every week.

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Chattanooga 10-5
2) Western Carolina 9-5
3) Appalachian State 8-7
4) UNC-Greensboro 5-9
5) Elon 5-10
6) Samford 4-10

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 12-2
2) Furman 11-4
3) Wofford 11-4
4) Davidson 7-8
5) The Citadel 5-9
6) Georgia Southern 0-14

TIES: Furman beat Wofford head-to-head, which is why they have the two seed over the Terriers.

Battle of North vs. South

NORTH at SOUTH
South 14, North 5

SOUTH at NORTH
North 10, South 6

NORTH vs. SOUTH
South 20, North 15

SoCon Saturday

Western Carolina 85, Samford 63
College of Charleston 87, UNC-Greensboro 69
Furman 88, Davidson 79
Appalachian State 78, Chattanooga 68
Wofford 69, Georgia Southern 61
Elon 79, The Citadel 72

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Appalachian State Preview: More Effort?

The Mocs just played their guts out, and put them out there against the Catamounts. Can the Mocs possibly play with that much effort again and come up with a solid performance against Appalachian State for a second straight night?

Will Keegan Bell and Omar Wattd be healthy enough to play closer to 30 minutes? How will Chris Early play coming off of his suspension?

These are all questions that the Mocs can't possibly answer at this point. If they could, then maybe I'd have a better chance of providing reasonable analysis of this game.

I'll freely admit- I'm at a loss. I don't have a clue if the Mocs can win. They could get beat by 30. Or they could win the game. Or anything in between. It's impossible to know for sure.

Donald Sims and Omar Carter are the Mountaineers leading scorers. Sims is averaging 20.9 points per game. He makes 42% of his shots, and 32.6% from three point range, while shooting almost 87% from the free throw line. He also averages 3.9 rebounds per game, 3.7 assists per game, and 1.9 steals per game. Carter is averaging 16.3 points per game, and 5.8 rebounds per game. Carter is shooting 40% from three point range.

Andre Williamson is shooting 56.6% from the field, and averaging 6.4 rebounds per game, to go along with his 8.6 rebounds per game. Williamson has been playing very well lately for the Mountaineers.

The first time the Mocs and Mountaineers played, Sims scored 28, but they were a very quiet 28 points. Carter scored just 14, and that was why the Mocs were able to win. Williamson was the only other player with more than six- he scored ten. The Mocs outrebounded the Mountaineers 37-30, and Appy shot 39.1% from the field and 22.6% from three point range. Wattad had 21 points, and Bell had thirteen assists.

Appalachian State has won three straight games. They won by two at UNC-Greensboro, and by six at Elon, and by six at home against Samford on Thursday night. That followed six losses in seven games.

The Mountaineers are a decent rebounding team. They are a team that likes to play at a fast pace, in the Top 100 in the country in scoring.

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs have to rebound well to stay in the game, just like they did the first time.
--Legs. Will the Mocs have any energy coming off a tough game on Friday night? Will Bell and Wattad be healthy enough to contribute?
--Chris Early. Will he play under control? Or will he be so eager to contribute that he'll get into early foul trouble and put pressure on the Mocs bench to contribute again?
--Hold down Sims and Carter. If the Mocs can hold them to 4 of 17 from three point range again, they will have a shot.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Celebrate clinching a bye in the North.
--Be pleased with the split of the back-to-back games.
--Hope that the Mocs can come up with more wins and clinch the division.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Worry a lot about losing the bye in the North.
--Be upset about not getting a splut in the back-to-back games.
--Wish the flu on everyone. EVERYONE!
--Sigh, take a deep breath, and remember that tomorrow is another day.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Early will pick up two quick fouls.
--Sims will score over 30.
--Surgical Mask Night won't be a flop.
--Appalachian State 77, Mocs 58. The Mocs will not be able to show up with that much effort on two straight nights. Without knowing the health of Wattad and Bell, there is no way to think that the Mocs can do THAT again. The Mocs need to play great game to have a shot. Will they be able to bounce back this quickly? It's hard to see.

GO MOCS!

Western Carolina 69, Mocs 68

If I told you that Chris Early would be suspended and not play at all, Keegan Bell would play ten minutes, Omar Wattad would play twelve minutes, DeAntre Jefferson would fould out, and the Mocs would turn the ball over 21 times, what would you have predicted would happen?

I would have predicted roughly the 75-54 blowout that I actually did predict.

The Mocs won the rebounding battle against the team that is the second best rebounding team in the league. The Mocs collected 40-31. DeAntre Jefferson collected eight, and Troy Cage had eleven rebounds.

Jefferson scored 13 points. Ricky Taylor put up 14 points, while Jahmal Burroughs scored ten, including knocking down an incredible five of six from the free throw line. Wattad had nine points in twelve minutes. Dontay Hampton also scored nine. Cage put home eight.

The Mocs of course lost the game in heart breaking fashion. They were tied when Trey Sumler was fouled with one second left. He knocked down a free throw to give them the win. It was heartbreaking for the Mocs.

The biggest problem was the last five minutes of the first half, when the Catamounts went on a 15-1 run to go from down six to up eight. This happened because the Mocs could not stop turning the ball over. They couldn't figure out how to not turn the ball over on possession after possession. Suddenly, they were playing from behind.

Honestly, I can't think of a time that I was prouder of the Mocs in a loss. They had so much going against them- basically three starters were either out or were shells of themselves. They combined for 22 minutes. And yet, the Mocs were in it until the end against the second best team in the North.

All along, the Mocs have needed to come up with a split on this road trip. Will Bell and Wattad be well enough to play normal minutes tomorrow? Maybe. Will Early be able to play well enough for the Mocs to win? Will Hampton and Cage and Burroughs be able to play such important minutes and play well again?

So proud of the Mocs tonight. Too bad it couldn't end in a win. We'll find out tomorrow if they can get that elusive road win and move a step closer to clinching the division, and can clinch a bye.

GO MOCS!

Friday, February 11, 2011

SoCon Monster Game of the Week: Davidson at Furman

Davidson has won five straight after winning just one of eight games. That one of eight? Davidson beat Furman at home. If the Wildcats were able to beat Furman for a second time, Davidson would be within two games of the Paladins, and have the tiebreaker.

Yep- the Paladins need to look out, because that object in the mirror (long left for dead) is closer than they appear.

In their first match-up, Amu Saaka scored just six points. That was his second lowest scoring output of the season. Jordan Miller did have a tremendous game, though. He scored 21 points. The Wildcats dominated the boards, 30-20. Nik Cochran scored 22 off the bench for the Wildcats, and De'Mon Brooks put home 11. JP Kuhlman scored 13.

It was a great performance by the Wildcats.

And this is how Davidson has been winning games. They've been rebounding well, and they've been relying on Brooks to be a monster coming off the bench. Brooks has turned into a real star, even though he still is not getting huge minutes. He is the best player on the team, really. Even if that is not true, he has the best chance to develop into a true stud on the team.

Jake Cohen is the second leading scorer with 12 points per game, and 6.6 rebounds per game. Cohen has been coming on stronger lately. Over the last three games, he has averaged seven rebounds per game.

Amu Saaka has been averaging 17.1 points per game and has 6.3 rebounds per game. Noah States and Jordan Miller has been very good lately. States scored 11.5 points per game and has 5.2 rebounds per game.

Furman has lost just one home game all year. That was a four point loss to College of Charleston. They have lost two of their last five games. They lost at Western Carolina and at College of Charleston. They won at home against Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. They won at The Citadel.

Davidson just won at Wofford to really prove that they are on the rise. This is a great run for the Wildcats.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Saaka vs. Cohen. Should be entertaining.
--Davidson will outrebound Furman.
--Furman will play inspired ball at home.
--Furman 78, Davidson 76. The Wildcats just can't keep on winning at this pace- can they? There's no way. Surely this is the game where they come back to earth at least a little bit. Furman at home is too tough of a task.

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Chattanooga 10-4
2) Western Carolina 8-5
3) Appalachian State 7-7
4) UNC-Greensboro 5-8
5) Samford 4-9
6) Elon 4-10

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 11-2
2) Furman 10-4
3) Wofford 10-4
4) Davidson 7-7
5) The Citadel 5-8
6) Georgia Southern 0-13

SoCon Friday

Western Carolina 69, Chattanooga 68

RPI Rankings

According to RealTimeRPI.com:

1) College of Charleston 76
2) Furman 124
3) Wofford 151
4) Davidson 168
5) Chattanooga 195
6) Appalachian State 198
7) Western Carolina 209
8) The Citadel 259
9) Elon 282
10) Samford 285
11) UNC-Greensboro 289
12) Georgia Southern 340

SoCon Rank: 20

Predicted Overall Record: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Record: 12-6

GO MOCS!

KenPom Rankings

According to KenPom.com:

1) College of Charleston 72
2) Wofford 115
3) Furman 128
4) Davidson 150
5) Western Carolina 187
6) Appalachian State 223
7) The Citadel 255
8) Elon 257
9) UNC-Greensboro 280
10) Chattanooga 282
11) Samford 300
12) Georgia Southern 327

SoCon Rank: 21

Predicted Overall Record: 15-16
Predicted SoCon Record: 11-7

GO MOCS!

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Staggered Start Times For NCAA Tournament

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2011-02-10/turner-cbs-air-all-ncaa-tourney

I'm a detail person. OK- not really. But to some degree. I like knowing start times.

The staggered start times on TBS, TruTV, TNT, and CBS makes the tournament that much more interesting. This tournament will be great. We'll get to watch whatever game we want. It doesn't change much, though. Anyone with a computer could have watched the games on March Madness on Demand on CBSSports.com. Any game they wanted to watch would have been on. But this will make it easier.

So- whatever SoCon team makes it to the tourney, I'll get to watch it without buffering issues. That's been unusual here in Kentucky in recent years.

GO MOCS!

Western Carolina Preview: In Sickness and In Health

A lot of us have relationships with the Mocs like that of a married couple. We love them. They drive us mad. But we keep on coming back no matter what. When they are healthy, we watch them a lot.

Now they are sick. With the flu. We all know the story by now. So it is this weekend that we find out- do we love the Mocs in sickness too?

If you are at this blog, and you are a Mocs fan, odds are- you love them in sickness, too. But we'll know more after this weekend.

It is very difficult to write a real preview of this game. After all, we don't know who will be healthy enough to play. We don't know how much anyone will be able to play. We don't know anything.

What we do know mostly centers around Western Carolina- and that Chris Early will be suspended for this game. So let's review Western Carolina and their strengths and weaknesses.

The Western Carolina offense centers around Bob Cousy Award Nominee Mike Williams. Williams is averaging 14.5 points per game, along with 3.5 assists and 3.6 rebounds, along with 1.9 steals per game. This guy is a real beast. He is shooting only 38.4% from the field, though, along with 33.3% from three point range. He also averages 3.0 turnovers per game. Williams is a very good point guard, but he turns the ball over a bit too much for a top point guard. But he is a big time scorer. As the leading scorer for the Catamounts, he can dominate a game.

Richie Gordon and Haroumba Mutombo are the bigs inside that can take over a game. They average 18.5 points per game and 10.4 rebounds per game between them. They also average 1.6 blocks per game. Gordon shoots 48% from the floor. Gordon and Mutombo are going to be very difficult for the Mocs to contain with Chris Early not being eligible. Even if everyone is 100% healthy outside of Early, this duo will be tough to contain.

Trey Sumler is a hot shooting freshman. Sumler shoots nearly 41% from three point range and averages 11.8 points per game with four rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. Sumler also shoots nearly 80% from the free throw line. Sumler has been very good for the Catamounts, and a big reason that they are currently second in the North division.

Keaton Cole scored 17 points against Chattanooga the first time they played, but that was his season high. In fact since the Campbell game after the Mocs game, he has not scored in double figures, and has scored zero points in seven games out of thirteen. He also has not had more than two assists, rebounds, or steals, except for when he had three assists against Dayton on December 18. He has been completely average (or maybe even below) since then.

Williams was the only other one to score double figures against the Mocs in the first meeting. He scored 21 points. Tawaski King collected 12 rebounds in their first meeting. But he hasn't played a lot of minutes even since that point. King has been OK- but is not really special.

Of course, Early scored 12 points in the first game, and he can't play in this one. He is the the second leading scorer for the Mocs. Keegan Bell scored 13 and Ricky Taylor added 11. DeAntre Jefferson had 11 rebounds and seven points. Wattad scored just seven points. But who knows if any of these will play?

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs have been beaten on the boards in their last two games. Not surprisingly, they did not look good in those games. To beat Western Carolina, they will not to do a better job rebounding, which had been a major strength for the Mocs. It also has been a strength for the Catamounts.
--Health and stamina. How healthy will anyone be? Will the Mocs be able to field a team that does not completely die from exhaustion? With the flu running through the team, Sam Watson injured, and Early suspended, they are going to have to find a way to stay on the floor and not get worn out.
--Controlling Williams. If the Mocs can control Williams to some degree or another, then they could have a shot to win the game. If he turns the ball over too much, then the Mocs will have a chance to win.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--WAHOO!
--Be uncontrollably happy. If they won, the Mocs would need just one more win or Western Carolina loss to clinch the North Division.
--Celebrate, and wonder if the Mocs could possibly win two straight games.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Be frustrated.
--Wonder if the Mocs health had been better, if they could have won this game.
--Hope that the Mocs didn't expend too much energy trying to win this one so that they can be a little bit better for the Appalachian State game.
--Sigh, take a deep breath, go to bed, and remember that tomorrow is another day.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Ummm....Bell and Wattad (two of the ones who had been sick) will not be able to play over 30 minutes. (Why not? Really- how can anyone have a prediction about this game?)
--Sumler will hit a bunch of threes.
--Early won't play.
--Richie Gordon will dominate the inside.
--The Mocs will play poorly due to lack of stamina.
--No one will look like this.
--Western Carolina 75, Chattanooga 54. It is hard to imagine a worse situation for the Mocs- all the illness, on the road, a big game, with a key game the next night as well. How do the Mocs perform in this one? How do they even show up? It's hard to know. Since the Mocs struggle so much on the road, how can anyone expect any better than this?

GO MOCS!

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Chattanooga 10-3
2) Western Carolina 7-5
3) Appalachian State 7-7
4) UNC-Greensboro 5-8
5) Samford 4-9
6) Elon 4-10

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 11-2
2) Furman 10-4
3) Wofford 10-4
4) Davidson 7-7
5) The Citadel 5-8
6) Georgia Southern 0-13

TIES: Furman beat Wofford head to head, so they have the advantage over them. The two will play on the final day of the regular season at Furman. At this point, it certainly appears that the winner of that game will have the second bye out of the South.