The Mocs have collected five road wins already this year, including a very nice set of three conference road wins. The problem is that three of the last five road games have ended very very badly. Try an average loss in those three games of 87-57.
Ouch.
So what happens now, as the Mocs take to the road for five of their final seven games?
It all begins at Davidson on Saturday night. The Wildcats have been struggling a bit, losing seven out of eight earlier in January. But then last Saturday, everything turned around. The Wildcats beat College of Charleston, then went on the road and took out Georgia Southern and Samford. Now, they've won three in a row, and are back in the race for fourth in the South at the minimum, and with a big run, maybe a shot at third.
The good news for the Mocs? Davidson hasn't won a game against a D1 team by more than 16 points this year. The Mocs haven't lost a game that was decided by less than 16 since December 30 against Georgia State. The Mocs actually have only lost four games by less than twenty points this year. They are 2-6 in games decided by 20 points or more this year. They are 12-4 in games decided by 19 or fewer. So the Mocs have success in closer games- as we all know.
Nik Cochran had been the Wildcats best player recently until the Wildcats upset the Cougars. He scored 21 that day, following up a 21 point game against The Citadel. That was his seventh straight game in double figures. Since then, he scored two against Georgia Southern and six against Samford. Was the pressure of his sudden stardom too much for him? Will he return to his old self now that he is back in Belk Arena?
JP Kuhlman has scored in double digits in nine straight games. During this three game winning streak, Kuhlman has averaged 16.7 points per game. He is shooting 35.4% from three point range. He is shooting 40.4% from the field, and 81% from the free throw line. Kuhlman also averages three assists per game.
Jake Cohen had been the Wildcats best player over the first two months of the season. But since the calendar turned to 2011, he has struggled, scoring just 9.6 points per game. He has fouled out three times during that stretch of eleven games, and picked up four fouls three other times. Cohen can be a force, and has continued to rebound well, but he is just not scoring the way he was in 2010. On the year, he is averaging 12.3 points per game and 6.5 rebounds.
Brendan McKillop, like Keegan Bell, was nominated for the Bob Cousy Award for the best point guard in the country. However, I would say that McKillop has been the most disappointing one of the bunch. He is averaging 2.3 assists and 1.5 turnovers. He is also averaging 9.3 points per game and 2.4 rebounds.
De'Mon Brooks has been a key player for the Wildcats during their three game winning streak. Brooks scored 11.7 points per game during this stretch. He is also averaging seven rebounds per game. He's been a very good player, and one of the more important players for the Wildcats during this stretch. He's played nearly 23 minutes per game during this stretch.
Davidson is 116th in the country in rebounding. They are 147th in the country in scoring, but just 210th in shooting. Of course, the Mocs are not playing good defense. Many teams have been shooting over 50 percent against the Mocs, even if that was not their norm.
The Mocs played really bad basketball on Thursday night. They turned the ball over too much. They did not play good defense. They did not rebound well. It's hard to imagine that they play that poorly again, particularly coming off of a win and going on the road into a hostile environment. They are such a good rebounding team, but their struggles in that area against Georgia Southern show that it can happen.
Davidson has allowed several secondary players to go off for big games against them. They have done OK against the big name player, but not against the secondary players. This means that Wattad may struggle some, but Taylor, Bell, Jefferson, and Early all have a chance to have big games.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. After getting outrebounded Thursday night, will the Mocs come back with a fire in their belly for rebounding? The Mocs need to dominate the boards by about their SoCon average of eight to have any real shot at winning this thing.
--The effort. This is related. The Mocs need to avoid getting blown out and see if they can pull off another close game. If they come with the effort, they should be able to keep it close, unlike what happened against Wofford and Furman.
--First ten minutes. The Mocs got mauled by Furman and Wofford early and were never in the game. They need to play those first ten minutes and still be in the game. If they are, then they could have a chance all the way until the end. Davidson needs to come out early and take control and make the Mocs doubt.
WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Beat Davidson on the road? YES!
--Start planning out how we beat Western Carolina and clinch this division.
--Celebrate being 11-2 in SoCon play for the first time since 1994-95.
--Wonder if our KenPom ranking will finally start going back up.
--Wonder how far up our RPI will go.
WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Think that we may not win another road game.
--Wonder how far down our RPI will drop.
--Start trying to figure out how we come up with one win against Western Carolina or Appalachian State to put us in better position in the division.
--Sigh, take a deep breath, go to bed, and remember that tomorrow will be another day.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Wattad will score in double figures but will be controlled by the Wildcats defense.
--Jefferson and Early will be the teams two leading scorers for the Mocs.
--Kuhlman, Cochran, and Brooks will all have good games for the Wildcats, scoring in double figures.
--The Mocs will rebound much better.
--Mocs 78, Davidson 71. Bell will control the game with his tempo, and will score more than his share. The Mocs will come up with a lot of assists like they've been doing lately. They look more and more like they are capable of winning a road game like this. Davidson does not look like they are capable of blowing the Mocs out, so the Mocs find a way to win in the end. Should be an absolutely tremendous basketball game.
GO MOCS!
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