Thursday, February 10, 2011

Western Carolina Preview: In Sickness and In Health

A lot of us have relationships with the Mocs like that of a married couple. We love them. They drive us mad. But we keep on coming back no matter what. When they are healthy, we watch them a lot.

Now they are sick. With the flu. We all know the story by now. So it is this weekend that we find out- do we love the Mocs in sickness too?

If you are at this blog, and you are a Mocs fan, odds are- you love them in sickness, too. But we'll know more after this weekend.

It is very difficult to write a real preview of this game. After all, we don't know who will be healthy enough to play. We don't know how much anyone will be able to play. We don't know anything.

What we do know mostly centers around Western Carolina- and that Chris Early will be suspended for this game. So let's review Western Carolina and their strengths and weaknesses.

The Western Carolina offense centers around Bob Cousy Award Nominee Mike Williams. Williams is averaging 14.5 points per game, along with 3.5 assists and 3.6 rebounds, along with 1.9 steals per game. This guy is a real beast. He is shooting only 38.4% from the field, though, along with 33.3% from three point range. He also averages 3.0 turnovers per game. Williams is a very good point guard, but he turns the ball over a bit too much for a top point guard. But he is a big time scorer. As the leading scorer for the Catamounts, he can dominate a game.

Richie Gordon and Haroumba Mutombo are the bigs inside that can take over a game. They average 18.5 points per game and 10.4 rebounds per game between them. They also average 1.6 blocks per game. Gordon shoots 48% from the floor. Gordon and Mutombo are going to be very difficult for the Mocs to contain with Chris Early not being eligible. Even if everyone is 100% healthy outside of Early, this duo will be tough to contain.

Trey Sumler is a hot shooting freshman. Sumler shoots nearly 41% from three point range and averages 11.8 points per game with four rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. Sumler also shoots nearly 80% from the free throw line. Sumler has been very good for the Catamounts, and a big reason that they are currently second in the North division.

Keaton Cole scored 17 points against Chattanooga the first time they played, but that was his season high. In fact since the Campbell game after the Mocs game, he has not scored in double figures, and has scored zero points in seven games out of thirteen. He also has not had more than two assists, rebounds, or steals, except for when he had three assists against Dayton on December 18. He has been completely average (or maybe even below) since then.

Williams was the only other one to score double figures against the Mocs in the first meeting. He scored 21 points. Tawaski King collected 12 rebounds in their first meeting. But he hasn't played a lot of minutes even since that point. King has been OK- but is not really special.

Of course, Early scored 12 points in the first game, and he can't play in this one. He is the the second leading scorer for the Mocs. Keegan Bell scored 13 and Ricky Taylor added 11. DeAntre Jefferson had 11 rebounds and seven points. Wattad scored just seven points. But who knows if any of these will play?

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs have been beaten on the boards in their last two games. Not surprisingly, they did not look good in those games. To beat Western Carolina, they will not to do a better job rebounding, which had been a major strength for the Mocs. It also has been a strength for the Catamounts.
--Health and stamina. How healthy will anyone be? Will the Mocs be able to field a team that does not completely die from exhaustion? With the flu running through the team, Sam Watson injured, and Early suspended, they are going to have to find a way to stay on the floor and not get worn out.
--Controlling Williams. If the Mocs can control Williams to some degree or another, then they could have a shot to win the game. If he turns the ball over too much, then the Mocs will have a chance to win.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--WAHOO!
--Be uncontrollably happy. If they won, the Mocs would need just one more win or Western Carolina loss to clinch the North Division.
--Celebrate, and wonder if the Mocs could possibly win two straight games.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Be frustrated.
--Wonder if the Mocs health had been better, if they could have won this game.
--Hope that the Mocs didn't expend too much energy trying to win this one so that they can be a little bit better for the Appalachian State game.
--Sigh, take a deep breath, go to bed, and remember that tomorrow is another day.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Ummm....Bell and Wattad (two of the ones who had been sick) will not be able to play over 30 minutes. (Why not? Really- how can anyone have a prediction about this game?)
--Sumler will hit a bunch of threes.
--Early won't play.
--Richie Gordon will dominate the inside.
--The Mocs will play poorly due to lack of stamina.
--No one will look like this.
--Western Carolina 75, Chattanooga 54. It is hard to imagine a worse situation for the Mocs- all the illness, on the road, a big game, with a key game the next night as well. How do the Mocs perform in this one? How do they even show up? It's hard to know. Since the Mocs struggle so much on the road, how can anyone expect any better than this?

GO MOCS!

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