Saturday, February 16, 2013

Wofford Preview: Prove It

The Mocs dominated The Citadel and Furman on the most recent homestand. They survived in overtime against Samford, and barely lost to College of Charleston. In other words, the Mocs played their best basketball of the season over the last week or so.

Now, the Mocs head to Wofford. It's time to prove whether or not the Mocs have truly turned a corner, or if they have just been playing well at home. It's prove it time for the Mocs.

Wofford's offense was terrible against Samford on Thursday. They scored just 33 points for the whole game. They allowed only 40, though, so they really hung close despite their terrible offensive showing. The Terriers only have three scorers who average more than 4.5 points per game. All three of them average in double figures. The Mocs will try to shut down the Terriers terrible offense. The Terriers are rated as the worst offense in the SoCon according to Pomeroy's statistics. They have an eFG of just 42.7%, worst in the conference. They are shooting just 26.9% from three point range in SoCon play. They also have the ninth highest TO% in the conference. The Mocs defense has allowed opponents to shoot 53.1% from two point range, worst in the SoCon. Wofford is shooting 43.7% from two point range, worst in the SoCon. Which team plays closer to their norm?

Karl Cochran shoots 30.5% from three point range and 35.2% from the field. He averages taking 16 shots per game, and averages 15.2 points per game. He also comes up with 2.2 steals and 0.7 blocks per game, both team highs. He averages 4.3 rebounds, which is second on the team. He also averages 1.6 assists per game, which is good for fourth on the team. It takes him a lot of shots to get his points, but he has been the Terriers best player. Cochran plays over thirty minutes per game.

Spencer Collins is averaging 12.8 points per game on 33.0% shooting from long range to go along with 38.4% shooting from the field. He averages playing 28.6 minutes per game. He plays a lot, and is slightly more efficient in taking shots to score than Cochran, but is still not a great shooter.

Lee Skinner is the other double figuring scoring Terrier. He is averaging 10.1 points per game, 7.3 rebounds per game (to lead the team), 1.9 assists (third on the team), and 1.3 steals (second on the team). He is shooting 41.6% from the field. He has made just four of 39 from three point range on the year. He hasn't tried any in the last four games, finally figuring out that he is struggling from long distance. He scored ten of the teams 33 points against Samford.

One of the best names in the whole Southern Conference is on the Terriers. Indiana Faithfull is a 6-4 sophmore, and leads the team in assists with 3.6 per contest. He is also third on the team in rebounds with 3.3 per game. He averages just 4.1 points per game on 37.2% shooting from long range and 35.6% from the field. He is not a big scorer, but he sets up the offense. He averages 2.2 turnovers per game.

The Terriers are only the ninth best team in the SoCon in OR%, while the Mocs rank second in DR%. However, the Mocs rank first in the SoCon in OR%, and the Terriers are first in DR%. The Terriers and the Mocs battle on the glass will be interesting, and critical to who wins this game.


--Wofford will score more points than they scored on Thursday at Samford.
--The Mocs will score more points than Samford scored on Thursday against Wofford.
--Against the Terriers undersized lineup (tallest players are Skinner and Jarrell Byrd both at 6-6), Z Mason and Drazen Zlovaric will each have good games.
--Against the Terriers good defensive guards, Gee McGhee and Rico White will both struggle to score.
--The Mocs pressure defense will bother the Terriers.
--The Terriers, who have done a very good job of forcing turnovers (second in the SoCon), will force the Mocs into more turnovers than they have been committing recently.
--Terriers 62, Mocs 60. This game is going to come down to the very last possession. In close games on the road, the Mocs beat Samford and The Citadel, but lost several other close road games. This is going to be a war down until the end. The Mocs will prove that they are on the way up and improving, but not quite there yet. Just for the record this year, when I have picked the Mocs to lose they have gone 1-12, with Samford being the lone exception. I would love to have that record be 2-12 at the end of the day.


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