Mercer is one of the favorites in the Atlantic Sun this year, and they bring their 5-5 record into McKenzie Arena for a Sunday afternoon tilt. The Bears are 1-5 away from home this year, losing at a neutral site to George Mason, Illinois-Chicago, and Wake Forest, then losing in true road games to New Mexico and got their doors blown off by Denver. However, the Bears did win at Florida State. So, will the road Bears that got beat by 29 by Denver, 26 by Illinois-Chicago and 18 by New Mexico show up? Or will the one that beat Florida State show up?
We won't know until we get there tomorrow.
Mercer has not played well on the offensive end of the court. They rank 312th in the country in points per game. That number does not lie. They rank 277th in the country in eFG%. They also commit turnovers on about 23% of their possessions. This is not an offense that has been very good.
On the defensive end of the court, the Bears have been very good. They rank 14th in the country in TO%, forcing turnovers on 26% of their opponents possessions. The Bears allowed only 46 points to the SoCon's Furman earlier this year.
Travis Smith is the only Bear in double digits. He is averaging 10.5 points per game, while shooting just under 41% from the floor. He shot 43% from three point range last year. This year, Smith is only making 28.6% from three point range. He averages 2.2 assists per game and 3.1 rebounds per contest. He also averages 2.4 turnovers per game.
Langston Hall is averaging 3.8 assists per game to lead the team. He is also the team's third leading scorer. He is averaging 7.0 points per game. He is only shooting 34.3% from the floor and 27.8% from three point range. He has only played in the last five games. His best game was in the win against Florida State.
Bud Thomas leads the team in rebounds with 3.8 rebounds per game. He is a 6-6 forward. He is still only averaging 5.1 points per game, and is shooting just 38.5% from the floor. He has made ten three pointers this year, which is tied with Smith for tops on the team.
Mercer has only two players on the roster taller than 6-6. One is Lawrence Brown, who is averaging a mere 5.4 minutes per game. Daniel Coursey is the other. He is averaging 15.4 minutes per game. He is averaging 6.9 points per game and 3.3 rebounds per game on 46.7% shooting from the floor. He is 6-10, 220 pounds. He will be tough for the Mocs to handle completely, but Drazen Zlovaric actually does match-up pretty well with him.
Last year, Mercer won 67-56 after the Mocs lead by one at halftime. Langston Hall scored 15 and Jakob Gollon scored 14. Gollon is the second leading scorer on the Bears this year, averaging 7.4 points per game. The Bears made just 6 of 26 from three point range in the contest a year ago.
The Mocs allow a lot of teams to shoot well from three point range. Can the Bears take advantage of that? Possibly. They have not been a good three point shooting team.
Also, the Mocs have been a good rebounding team this year. The Bears have not been. The Mocs will need to take advantage of this. They rank 230th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Mocs, on the other hand, rank 52nd in offensive rebounding percentage. It will be critical for the Mocs to take advantage on the offensive glass, because they need to get easy points to score against this very good defensive team.
The Mocs have not been good on offense this year. They turn the ball over a lot, and the Bears force a lot of turnovers. Can the Mocs protect the ball enough to keep them in possessions?
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--The Mocs will turn the ball over twenty times.
--Drazen Zlovaric may be the key to the game. He needs to control Coursey, and also needs to continue collecting offensive rebounds. If he can get offensive rebounds against the Bears and can get some easy putbacks, he can keep the team in the game. He has been struggling, but I have a hunch he is ready to break out.
--Z Mason is important for similar reasons, and will provide some muscle down low.
--Rico White and Gee McGhee need to get to the basket and try to create points off the dribble. They will struggle against the Bears.
--The Bears will hit more threes than they are used to, but not nearly as many as the Mocs have allowed other times this year.
--Mercer 62, Mocs 57. The Mocs are good enough to win this game. They match up very well with Mercer, in reality. The problem is that the Mocs have been playing worse at home than on the road (though this may be debatable). The atmosphere on a Sunday afternoon? Probably not the best in McKenzie. This is a game that if the Mocs can find a way to win it could turn the whole season around. I have a lot of hope for this one, but not enough confidence to actually pick the Mocs.
GO MOCS!
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