Thursday, December 27, 2012

Dr Pepper Classic: High Point Preview

These two teams will tip off at 7:00 in the second game of the Dr Pepper Classic first round. This game will follow roughly thirty minutes following Austin Peay-Utah Valley. That should be an entertaining game, but this one ought to be very intriguing from start to finish.

The SoCon has been trying to get back to .500 against the Big South this year. The SoCon fell way behind in the early going in this battle, but has snuck back into the race. A Mocs win would get the SoCon back to even against the Big South. Amazing. Of course, High Point contributed to the fast start by the Big South. They went 2-0, beating  UNCG and Appalachian State to start the year. Those are the Panthers last D1 wins.

John Brown is a freshman for the Panthers and is 6-7, 200 pounds. He has only been held into single digits once this year, and is averaging 18.1 points per game on 51.9% shooting from the floor. He is also averaging 6.6 rebounds per game. He's been shooting nearly 70% from the free throw line as well. Brown has been a real revelation for the Panthers.

Allan Chaney is in his first year at High Point after spending time at Florida and Virginia Tech. He is also the only other Panther averaging more than 8.3 points per game. He is 6-9 and weighs 235 pounds. He is averaging 13.8 points per game on 54.7% shooting from the floor. He is also averaging 8.1 rebounds per contest.

Brown and Chaney provide a powerful one-two punch inside for the Panthers. The Mocs will try to counter with Drazen Zlovaric and Z Mason. Those two are both solid players for the Mocs as well. Those match-ups are going to be brutally tough for Zlovaric and Mason. How will they perform in this critical match-up?

Jairus Simms leads the team with 4.3 assists per contest. He is only scoring 2.4 points per game though. He is relied upon to get the ball into the good scoring position for Brown and Chaney.

The Panthers don't shoot a lot of threes, and they are a very poor shooting team. They shoot about 15.5 threes per game. They make 27.1% from three point range. The Mocs have a very poor three point defense, and teams shoot a lot of threes against them. They are one of the worst three point defenses in the country, in terms of percentage of points allowed from three point range. Will the Mocs be able to stop the Panthers from making big threes against them?

Derrell Edwards is the Panther that has attempted the most three pointers on the team with 34. He has only made seven on the year. Lorenzo Cugini has made the highest percentage and number of threes of any Panther this year. Cugini made ten of 22 from three point range, good for 45.5%.

The Panthers make 78.1% from the free throw line. They are not good at getting to the stripe though, ranking 327th in the country. The Mocs need to avoid fouling the Panthers and letting them capitalize on their good free throw shooting.

The Mocs are a very good rebounding team. They are one of the better ones in the country. High Point is a solid rebounding team, but not a great one. The Mocs will need to win the battle of the boards to be able to win the game on the whole.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs will struggle to contain Brown and Chaney in the paint.
--High Point will not shoot the ball well from three point range, but Cugini will make four threes.
--The Mocs will outrebound the Panthers, but not by a tremendous amount
--Gee McGhee will have a good night getting the lane.
--The Mocs will get fouled plenty, but will struggle from the line.
--Rico White will have a big night.
--Mocs 59, High Point 55. This will be a low scoring affair with both teams struggling at times to score. The Mocs will win this game behind White trying to get into the lane and drawing fouls. He will make just enough free throws to win this game. The Mocs are going to show up and play one of their better games of the year to date. Call it a gut feeling based on the Mocs getting their head together over Christmas Break. The Mocs will be playing the night game in the Championship Game of the Dr Pepper Classic on Saturday evening.

GO MOCS!

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