Monday, December 10, 2012

LSU Preview: Where Do We Go From Here?

The Mocs have lost two straight games after beating Kennesaw State. They have lost six of their last seven overall.

The Mocs are coming off their two worst performances of the year- a blowout home loss to Davidson and a home meltdown for 32 minutes against Eastern Kentucky. Where do the Mocs go from here?

To Baton Rouge. For better or worse.

The Tigers are 5-0. Of course wins over Cal-Santa Barbara, McNeese State, Northwestern State, Mississippi Valley State, and Seton Hall are hardly the sort of wins that get you noticed on the national scene. All of those were home wins.

Are the Mocs good enough to take advantage of the Tigers soft early schedule? Are they capable of exposing any of the Tigers weaknesses?

One potential weakness for the Tigers is the suspension of point guard Anthony Hickey. Hickey has averaged 10.2 points per game and 5.2 assists per contest. Finding a substitute for Hickey will be critical. He has been in trouble already this year, and has not started a couple of games for disciplinary reasons. However, he has played in every game to this point, and is averaging 30.2 minutes per contest.

Johnny O'Bryant III is a 6-9, 262 pound sophomore. He is second on the team in points per game with 12.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. He's played an odd set of minutes, though he has started four games. He is shooting 55.3% from the floor. He will be tough for anyone on the Mocs to handle.

Shavon Coleman is a 6-5 junior, who is shooting 56.5% from the floor. Over the last four games, he has averaged 20.3 points per contest, while averaging 8.5 rebounds per game over the same time. This is another very tough physical match-up for the Mocs.

Without Hickey, Andre Stringer is probably the Tigers best three point shooter. He is making 38.5% from three point range, making 10 of his 26 threes on the year. Shane Hammick has made 5 of 11, shooting the highest percentage of any Tiger.

The Tigers are ranked second in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, but are just 245th in defensive rebounding percentage. That neutralizes one of the Mocs biggest strengths. The Tigers turn the ball over at a very high rate, but also force a lot of turnovers. They are not a good free throw shooting team, but they are a very good shooting team from the floor.

The Mocs will need Jared Bryant, Drazen Zlovaric, and Z Mason to do a great job defensively against O'Bryant and Coleman to keep the Tigers in check down low. Sam Watson will obviously be relied on too at this point.

The really interesting player here could be Gee McGhee. As someone who is a native of Louisiana, he seems to be excited to play in front of his home state. If he channels that energy, he could be a force in this one.

Another interesting thing is that Farad Cobb did a great job against Kansas, and said that he normally stepped up when playing in front of big crowds. Cobb is a very good shooter, and if he gets hot like he did against Kansas, he could single-handedly keep the Mocs in the game, like he did against Kansas.

Rico White has been playing OK and needs to hold onto the ball. Can the Mocs hold onto the ball? Remember- they turned the ball over seven times in their first eight possessions on Saturday night, setting the meltdown off. This Tigers team is even better at forcing turnovers. Uh-oh.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs will turn the ball over far too many times and will really hurt their offensive production.
--Coleman and O'Bryant will be almost unstoppable inside as the Mocs try to guard them.
--McGhee and Cobb both will have solid games, responding to the crowd.
--LSU 78, Mocs 56. The Mocs turnovers will mount and prevent them from truly keeping this game close. Also, rebounding will be a problem against a good rebounding team like LSU, despite the fact that this is one of the Mocs strengths. McGhee and Cobb will let the Mocs hang around, but in the end, it's too much Tigers.

GO MOCS!

No comments:

Post a Comment