The Mocs are playing at noon on a Tuesday afternoon. This has caused a great deal of distress among many a Moc fan who think this is a horrid idea. But that has been hashed, rehashed, and then fried.
So let's cut to the chase. It's a Businessman's Special! Fun!
The Mocs need to treat this like a business game. They need to not hit the snooze button a few times. Reinhardt is not a great team (they are a 4-9 NAIA team), but they hung around with both Georgia Southern and Murray State. They were within single digits in the second half of both games, losing to GSU by 17 and MSU by just 14.
So the Mocs need to come out early and set the pace, set the tempo, and jump out to a big early lead. Is it possible? Sure it is. The Mocs are more than capable of beating this team by 30 points. They also are capable of laying a total egg and being sent home with a lump of coal in their stockings (in other words, not on the list of Good Boys and Girls).
Kevin Nordeen won the Appalachian Athletic Conference's Player of the Week last week. He is a senior guard, and 6-1. Last week, he averaged 24.0 points per game on 59.3% shooting, and shot 59.1% from behind the three point arc. He is a deadly shooter when he is on his game. Could Nordeen get hot? Possibly. Amazingly, he did not play against either Murray State or Georgia Southern, and this past week was his first game action of the season. So Nordeen makes Reinhardt even better than the team that played those two D-1 schools close.
Looking at their season stats (which have not been updated to include Saturday's game), Carlos Lyles is averaging 14.4 points per game, David Lawson is averaging 13.6 points per game, and Tyler Blackwell is averaging 10.3 points per game. Lyles has a game of 35 points this year, and Lawson scored 25 against Georgia Southern. Steven Jenkins played well off the bench against both Georgia Southern and Murray State.
Lyles, Blackwell, and Lawson also are the best rebounders for the Eagles. Each of them have games in double figures rebounding on the season. Georgia Southern outrebounded Reinhardt by six, including allowing Reinhardt to claim ten offensive boards (out of 28 total). They were outrebounded by thirteen against Murray State, but still claimed eight offensive rebounds (out of their 21 total). The Mocs are one of the better rebounding teams in the country- especially in defensive rebounding. They rank as one of the top 30 in the country in not allowing opponents to get offensive rebounds according to Pomeroy. If the Mocs don't play lazy, they should be able to dominate the glass.
Another surprising discovery is that the Mocs are not a team that allows opponents to shoot well beyond the arc against them this year. Many people still have that misconception in their head- pointing back to the Jackson State game as an example. Taking Jackson State away, opponents really have not done that.
But what if Nordeen goes off? What if the Mocs come out lazy and don't clear the glass? What if Bell turns into a turnover machine? What if the shots don't fall and the Mocs don't adjust and pound the ball to Jefferson, Saffore, Early, Burroughs, and Watson, then they could struggle to score.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Focus. If the Mocs are focused and hungry, they should be able to do everything they need to do to win the game in the first twenty minutes. The early start time on a weekday may create a bit of a haze in the arena and the Mocs may come out sluggish and keep Reinhardt in the game. One of these days, Reinhardt is going to complete the upset. That's why the Mocs need to not come out sluggish.
--Rebounding. This will tell if they are focused or not. Beat Elon on the boards by 17 and then beat Reinhardt on the boards by nothing? That would be a sure sign of the lack of focus and intensity.
--In the paint. If the Mocs outscore Reinhardt in the pain by a large margin, then they will win the game. Yes, Reinhardt may get hot from the outside, but the Mocs should be able to dominate in the paint.
WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Ummm...be happy?
--Wonder how many more times the Mocs may try a noon start in coming years.
--Celebrate the fourth win of the month.
WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Wonder how long Shulman can stave off the wolves losing to NAIA teams.
--Be very, very upset.
--Sigh, go to bed, and remember that tomorrow is another day- though I likely won't be able to remember that until at least December 30.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Jefferson, Early, and the rest of the inside game will dominate.
--Wattad will have a fairly bad game. Call this a gut feeling. Prove me wrong, Omar.
--Bell will come up with double digit assists.
--The game will stay close longer than most will expect it to, as the Mocs will lead by single digits at halftime.
--The Mocs will wind up clearing the bench in the second half.
--Mocs 86, Reinhardt 64. The Mocs are just too physical and too big and strong for Reinhardt. The Mocs will struggle to be motivated and that will lead to a lackluster first half, but in the end, the Mocs will pull away and win with ease.
GO MOCS!
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