Everyone hold your breath, because this is the ultimate battle of the wills. Murray State is one of the lowest rebounding teams in the country, and one of the lowest scoring teams in the country. Yet, they don't shoot the ball too poorly and they actually generally outrebound their opponents.
That's because the Racers are not about racing. They are much more about slowing the tempo down, and playing solid defense for 40 minutes, and figuring that will be enough.
The Mocs on the other hand want to get up and down the floor. If anyone has ever watched Keegan Bell play, they know that he wants to run- and running is what the Mocs try to do. Particularly in a game like this.
People want to say that Murray State is picked to finish first in the OVC and Austin Peay was picked to finish somewhere between third and sixth- and the Governors beat the Mocs in Chattanooga.
This is not the same Mocs team, though. They played much better over the last two games. They have figured out how to play with each other, and played substantially better defense against both Western Carolina and Appalachian State. They also showed a lot better shot selection.
One quote stuck out to me from the Times Free Press story today. Shulman was quoted as saying, “We started the season thinking that we were going to shoot a bunch of 3s and be a guard-orientated team. It wasn’t as much fun as I thought it would be."
That is very true. The Mocs still shoot a lot of threes- but they now seem to like getting the ball inside more. Has anyone seen Ricky Taylor's stat line? He is 8 for 27 on threes- and 22 of 32 from two point range. Taylor has a great mid-range game. The rest of the Mocs seem to be trending in the same direction- taking the mid-range game over the long game.
Jefferson and Saffore are also more critical with this new found inside presence. Jefferson has done an excellent job shooting as of late, even though he is not doing a great job of shooting free throws.
The Racers leading scorer is Isaiah Canaan with 11.6 points per game, while BJ Jenkins is averaging 10.3 points per game. Jenkins is the best shooter of the bunch. He is shooting 43.8 percent from three point range, and nearly 96 percent from the free throw line. Canaan is shooting 78 percent from the free throw line. Ivan Aska leads the Racers in rebounding with 4.8 rebounds per game. Isaac Miles averages 8.1 points and 3.3 assists per game. Miles, Jenkins, and Canaan are not exactly tall (all listed at 6'2 or shorter), but Miles and Jenkins are seniors and should not be bothered by playing on the road. Canaan had an inspirational story on ESPN about surviving Hurricane Katrina, so he too will not be bothered by a tough crowd.
On the Racers message board, there was a quote that said, "They also do a good job of defending the perimeter and are holding their opponents to 32.5% shooting from 3 range." This is certainly not the way Moc fans perceive their team. Our perception is that the Mocs are not good at defending the three point line and that good shooting teams can dominate us from there. Ha! FIRE works according to the Racer Fans message board. Did you ever think you'd see the day that someone would call a John Shulman coached Mocs team good at defending the perimeter? Shulman has even said that we don't want to defend the perimeter as much as the inside game. So the fact that opponents now think of this as a strength is a true oddity to this season.
This is a Racer team that relies on playing good defense and slowing the tempo down and getting off good shots to win games. But, Morehead State shot 59.5% against them, and Eastern Kentucky shot 54.8% against them. Those were their two most recent games. That is not good defense on the Racers part.
The game has been promoted extensively, partly because the women play a Top 15 Kentucky team in the nightcap of the doubleheader. There is no major college football (Army-Navy is it for FBS games). But there is the little problem of Tennessee playing a road game against Top 5 Pittsburgh team at the exact same time as the Mocs game. Ouch. That really hurts the Mocs chances of drawing a huge crowd for this game. This is the best home out of conference game of the year, though. So maybe that will draw some extra people to the seats. It certainly helps that the Mocs won their two conference games last weekend.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. As usual. Murray State is 336th in the country in rebounding, averaging just 28.5 boards per game. Yet their opponents are only getting 29.8 rebounds per game. So, they are not as bad as their rankings suggests. The Mocs need to win the battle of the boards. And Saffore needs to put his arms up. That would help.
--Wattad needs to take his shots, but not be selfish about it. He's gotten better and better at that over the last few weeks. He's now taking much more reasonable shots, and being much more responsible. That needs to continue.
--Bell needs to keep the team under control and not get frustrated if the game's pace is going too slow. Sometimes that can frustrate Bell and lead to unnecessary turnovers. The Mocs have limited turnovers (especially in the second half) of their two wins last weekened.
--Defend the three. Murray's guard-oriented offense will want to shoot some threes (though not as many as the Mocs probably). They will need to get out, particularly on Jenkins.
WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOC WIN
--Start looking ahead to Elon. (Can't ever enjoy the wins enough....)
--Wonder how we lost to Austin Peay, FIU, and and Jackson State. (No really...how did they lose ALL THREE of those?)
--Do the dance of joy.
WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Wonder just how weak the SoCon North is.
--Be mad at the whole state of Kentucky. (First Louisville, now Murray?)
--Be sad- but try to start looking ahead to Elon.
--Sigh, take a deep breath, and realize that tomorrow is another day.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--The Mocs will outrebound the Racers.
--Jefferson will have his best game yet. He will get a double-double.
--Early will also have a double-double.
--Jenkins and Murray State will shoot well from three point range.
--Bell will commit some early turnovers before settling into the game.
--Chattanooga 66, Murray State 59. In a game featuring this much contrast of styles, the home team generally has more success. Throw in the way Bell plays, and it is tough to see the Racers completely slowing down the Mocs. Also, when both teams have had a week off, the faster paced team tends to have more of an advantage. The Mocs performed much better when they had some time off heading into last week's game against Appalachian State. Also, after finals week, it is an advantage to be at home. Everything points to the Mocs, even if Murray would probably win more often than not on a neutral floor.
GO MOCS!
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