Saturday, December 18, 2010

Reflections on Elon- A Day Later

OK- it's been a day since the Mocs win over Elon, and it is time for a quick reflection on what went down.

It's important to distinguish the SoCon to understand where this victory ranks.

There are three classes of SoCon teams right- The Contenders, The Darkhorses, and The Longshots.

The Contenders- College of Charleston (the early favorite), Davidson, Wofford, Appalachian State, and Chattanooga.

The Darkhorses- Furman, The Citadel, Western Carolina, Samford, and Elon.

The Longshots- UNC-Greensboro and Georgia Southern.

Of course, Furman or a host of other teams can still move around on this list, but this is their current standing in my opinion.

My theory is that any team with Sims is capable of winning the SoCon Tourney. The Mocs are at home for the tourney and are playing well. Davidson, Wofford, and CofC have as much talent as anyone and will fight it out for one of the byes all year round.

Of course, Furman could become this year's Citadel and steal a bye away from them, like the Bulldogs did two years ago, making CofC play four games in four days. That is the real wildcard in the whole race.

But more on the SoCon after the Austin Peay game in a couple of weeks.

So what does the Elon win mean? Plenty. We're now 3-0, all against the North. We're proving we can beat the North teams, which is huge to getting the bye that matters so much to winning the tournament.

Elon is one of the teams that could be a darkhorse for the title. But their road to having a better seed than us in the tourney just took a huge hit. They are now three games behind us and have lost at home to us. If we beat them at home later on this year, that would put us basically five games ahead of them. That is going to be very difficult for them to make up.

So what did the Elon game mean? It meant that we now have a huge edge on Elon, and have probably put them in the rearview mirror in terms of standings. And that's a good start.

Come one- answer me seriously. When I said that the Mocs would go 5-2 in the month of December, you probably thought that I was being too optimistic. Well, now I see absolutely no reason that they shouldn't get to 6-1. Yes, they need to show up against Reinhardt (who has lost to two D1 teams already, and both times they've been within single digits in the second half) and Montreat. They will absolutely need to play well against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi or Georgia State. But they will be favored to win all three of those games.

And so the Mocs roll on- looking like they could be 8-6 heading into January. They will be 3-0 in SoCon play heading to UNC-Greensboro on January 8.

And if you had told me back on the Sunday after Thanksgiving that the Mocs would be 3-0 in the SoCon right now- I would have taken it in a heartbeat. I was worried about 0-3- though I thought that 2-1 was a real possibility. I really didn't think 3-0 was in the cards. I thought there would be a loss to Murray State and Appalachian State, and hopefully we would beat Elon and Western Carolina. So here we are. 3-0.

And it feels good.

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