Sunday, January 23, 2011

SoCon Monster Game of the Week: Furman at Wofford

These two teams are not separated by a lot in terms of distance. They are not separated by much in terms of the standings in the South Division, either.

Furman hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1980, which capped a decade (1971-1980) of going to the Big Dance six times. They won just one game in that stretch- a win over South Carolina to advance to the region semifinals, where they lost to Pitt by three.

Wofford has only been to the NCAA Tournament once, and that was last year, when they narrowly lost to Wisconsin in the first round.

Both teams appear to be teams that have a real shot at advancing to the NCAA Tournament this time around. However, no team has ever advanced to the NCAA Tournament out of the SoCon having to win four games in four days. With College of Charleston and these two teams separated by just one game for the top spot in the South, it is clear that one of those three will get left out and will not garner a bye. That means that one team will have a much tougher path to the NCAA Tournament.

The loser of this game will be in a bit of a hole in getting that bye. That's why this game is massive.

The Paladins are a very good offensive team, and relies on Amu Saaka, who has become one of the best players in the whole conference. Jordan Miller, Noah States, Darryl Evans, Brandon Sebirumbi, Justin Dehm, and Colin Reddick all provide plenty as well. That makes this team one of the deepest in the whole conference, and one of the reasons that they are dangerous on the first weekend in March. States and Miller both average in double figures along with Saaka. Saaka has developed into a good long range shooter, and also is averaging 6.5 rebounds per game.

This team is in the top 100 in the country in scoring, and in the top 50 in field goal percentage.

Wofford has a similar set of numbers, ranking in the top 100 in scoring, ant top 50 in field goal percentage. They are not a good rebounding team. Tim Johnson is the best rebounder in the conference. He has 8.7 rebounds per game. Noah Dahlman is the best player possibly in the whole conference. Dahlman averages 19.6 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game. Jamar Diggs and Cameron Rundles each also have a lot of offensive firepower. Brad Loesing is one of the top shooters in the whole conference, though he is not required to do much offensively. But Loesing is a guy that can go off for a big night at any moment.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--This game will be closer than what either team faced last week against Samford and Chattanooga. (Sigh.)
--Dahlman vs. Saaka- does it get any better than that in the SoCon?
--This game might just be worth the price of buying the package from Wofford to watch the game. This game really should be something.
--Neither team likes to go fast- but both teams are exceptional offensive teams.
--Wofford 78, Furman 75. Watch Loesing hit the big three late in the game that wins. Call it a gut feeling. But this game will be nip and tuck the whole way. In the end, Furman's chances of getting a bye will be severely hurt, while Wofford's chances of winning the division will have gone up substantially.

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