Are the Mocs moving forward or moving back? This game will help to decipher exactly what direction the Mocs are moving.
The Mocs lost by three (on a last second three pointer by Caleb Brown) earlier in the season to Austin Peay. Now the Governors are without Anthony Campbell, are 9-6, and the Mocs are heading to their place to try to prove that they have gotten better. Austin Peay is 4-0 in the OVC, and looks a little like the early favorite for the conference title, though Murray State and Morehead State will certainly have something to say about that in the long run.
Campbell was averaging 13.9 points per game and 2.5 rebounds, and scored 15 points against the Mocs earlier this year. Campbell is out for the year, and is still the second leading scorer.
Since losing Campbell, the Governors have gone 4-1, including wins over Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State to go along with a two point overtime loss at Memphis. So the loss of Campbell has not hit quite as hard as one might expect, though the other two wins are over non-D1 teams.
The Governors are 37th in the nation in scoring and 54th in field goal percentage. The Mocs held them to 70 points (eight points below their season average) earlier this year. They also shot under 40 percent from the floor.
The key in the first contest was that the Mocs were absolutely dominated on the boards. They were outrebounded 39-27. Since the Mocs last played Austin Peay, they have become one of the nation's better rebounding teams. Austin Peay collected fourteen offensive rebounds. Since then, no team has come close to that sort of production. The Mocs are one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country.
Josh Odem was the Mocs leading scorer the last time they met, with fifteen points off the bench. Omar Wattad and DeAntre Jefferson both picked up four fouls. TyShawn Edmondson had 14 points for the Governors and Josh Terry had 17 points. Terry had seven rebounds and Edmondson had six rebounds. John Fraley had 11 rebounds, including seven offensive rebounds, to go along with seven points.
Fraley is averaging 7.1 rebounds per game. Terry is averaging 10.9 points per game, while Edmondson is averaging 19.5 points per game, the team's leading scorer. Caleb Brown is averaging five assists per game.
The Governors are shooting 36.5 percent from three point range, while shooting 68.5 percent from the free throw line. Edmondson is shooting 82.2 percent from the free throw line, while the other Governors are not particularly good free throw shooters.
The Mocs have figured out a lot of things since they played the Governors. They have gotten to be a much better rebounding team. Jefferson and Early are two very good rebounders. The question is if anybody can contain Edmondson. Who will contain him? The Mocs have gotten to be a much better defensive team, but will need to be much sharper offensively than they were against Austin Peay the first time around.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. Will the Governors dominate the boards again? Or will the Mocs improvement in the rebound department show up and at least make this category closer?
--The shooters need to shoot. Bell, Taylor, and Wattad combined to shoot 3 for 15 from three point range against Austin Peay the first time around. All have shown improvement shooting since then. They combined for 22 points the first time around. They have combined to average 34 on the season.
--The Mocs "Big Three of Depth." The Big Three of Depth (which is the nickname I am now coining Jeremy Saffore, Jahmal Burroughs, and Troy Cage) need to score somewhere in double figures (last time 13 combined). Against Georgia State, they combined for one point. That is one of the main reasons the Mocs lost that game.
--Intimidation. Will the Mocs be intimidated in Clarksville? They could be. If they are, then the Mocs could get beat down. If not, they should be able to hang around.
WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Really start to believe that the Mocs can get to 5-0 in the SoCon after this road trip.
--Start worrying about the next two road games against UNC-Greensboro and The Citadel.
--Be pleased with the Mocs improvement over the last month and a half.
--Be glad that the Mocs got revenge.
WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Pray that the stomach bug that struck me within hours after losing to Austin Peay the last time won't strike again.
--Start worrying about the next two road games against UNC-Greensboro and The Citadel.
--Wonder if the improvement that I've seen over the last month and a half was all just an illusion.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--The Mocs will keep this one close.
--Edmondson will score over 20 points, possibly hitting as many as six threes.
--Wattad, Taylor, and Bell will have good games.
--The Mocs will keep the rebounding battle closer.
--Austin Peay 75, Mocs 71. The Governors are the better team, though, but Edmondson will be too much for the Mocs to overcome in Clarksville.
GO MOCS!
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