THE FOUR FACTORS (plus two)
These four factors are considered by many statisticians to be the key to winning a basketball game. The higher the score on Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), Offensive Rebound Percentage (OR%), and Free Throw Rate (FTRate) the better the odds to win. The lower the Turnover Percentage (TO%) the better it is for the odds of winning. Also, I have include Free Throw Percentage (FT%) because I consider that to be critical to winning as well, particularly if FTRate is higher. The final stat I included is Three Point Rate (3PTRate). This measures how many three pointers the team takes compared to two pointers. That means that there is no clear winner on it, but it is a stat that I consider critical to the Mocs success. It's just one to monitor to guarantee they are not shooting too many threes.
eFG%
Mocs- 39.2%
Indiana- 57.0%
Advantage- Indiana
TO%
Mocs- 34.3%
Indiana- 24.7%
Advantage- Indiana
OR%
Mocs- 40.0%
Indiana- 19.4%
Advantage- Mocs
FTRate
Mocs- 26.7%
Indiana- 62%
Advantage- Indiana
FT%
Mocs- 68.8%
Indiana- 67.7%
Advantage- Mocs
3PTRate
Mocs- 36.7%
Indiana- 36.0%
PLAYER RATER
Using ESPN's Player Rater, each Mocs player has been calculated. I have also calculated each player's total per 40 minutes. They are ranked in each category based on how well they played.
Overall
1) Omar Wattad 35.85
2) Drazen Zlovaric 11.45
3) Jahmal Burroughs 9.5
4) Keegan Bell 6.3
5) Z Mason 5.15
6) Rico White 4.9
7) Jared Bryant 2.9
8) Ricky Taylor 1.7
9) Lance Stokes 1.3
10) Dontay Hampton .8
11) Drew Baker 0.0
12) Chris Early -0.2
13) Martynas Bareika -0.8
Per 40 Minutes
1) Omar Wattad 51.21
2) Jahmal Burroughs 23.75
3) Jared Bryant 19.33
4) Drazen Zlovaric 17.62
5) Z Mason 12.12
6) Rico White 10.89
7) Keegan Bell 8.4
8) Lance Stokes 4.3
9) Ricky Taylor 3.8
10) Dontay Hampton 3.2
11) Drew Baker 0.0
12) Chris Early -0.47
13) Martynas Bareika -32.0
ANALYSIS
I should be 100% forthcoming right up front. I was unable to listen to the game because the feed on GoMocs.com was down. I was unable to watch the game because I cancelled my subscription to the Big Ten Network a few months ago in an attempt to save a little money. So for me, I was watching the game on CBS GameTracker. Not nearly interesting- much tougher to gather what is truly going on as well. However, all that being said, I am still going to throw some analysis at this game.
The Mocs shot a miserable 18% from the field in the second half. When that happens, you do not win many games. Particularly when you are playing a team the caliber of Indiana on the road.
Let's start with the bad. The Mocs committed 25 turnovers- a simply unacceptable number. The Mocs turned the ball over on roughly 34% of their possessions. That is simply too high of a number. Zlovaric was responsible for six of those turnovers, but did manage ten rebounds and seven points. Bell had five turnovers. That's too many for the point guard to make. When you combine it with Bell's scoreless effort, it becomes even more clear why the Mocs struggled. Bell did get seven assists, but that is little comfort.
But Bell wasn't the only scoreless starter for the Mocs. Chris Early was held scoreless too. How the Mocs can expect to win with both Bell and Early held scoreless is beyond me. Early was in foul trouble and fouled out. Not good. He needs to be much more of a factor.
When you shoot roughly 27% from the floor for the game, you are not going to win too many games. It is just a simple fact. The Hoosiers also shot 50%.
Now for the good news. The Hoosiers shot 65% against Stony Brook on Friday night. So the Hoosiers did not shoot as well. Defense or more normal offense? Maybe a little bit of both. We'll find out.
The Mocs held Christian Watford and Cody Zeller combined for nine points and ten rebounds. If the Mocs had been told that before the game, I believe they would have taken it. The Mocs outrebounded Indiana 45-36. Combine those facts pregame, and I would have expected the Mocs to win. There is no way they shoot just 27% from the field.
Doing a quick look through at the Player Rater, Wattad obviously played well, but so did Burroughs, and even Zlovaric played OK, if the turnovers are taken out of the equation. Bryant only played six minutes, but came up with the second most rebounds of any Moc, and wound up third in the Player Rater per 40 minutes.
Victor Oladipo went off for a career high of 21 for the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls added 18, including several huge threes.
This was not a solid showing by the Mocs. The Mocs were certainly hoping for more. It did not happen this night. They will need to shoot better to beat teams on their schedule. They will need to turn the ball over less. It is possible that the Mocs can pull that off. That could start on Tuesday night against Butler. Then again, it may need to wait until the schedule softens a touch- say the home opener next Friday against Kennesaw State.
There is plenty to build on here. If the Mocs shoot better, and play with the same intensity rebounding (rebounding nearly 40% of their misses...wow) and find a way to get to the line more, then they will be in every single one of their remaining games (outside of possibly Kentucky).
Should be an interesting game on Tuesday night at Butler. More on that game tomorrow.
GO MOCS!
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