Butler Preview: Back-to-Back

Time: 7:00 PM
TV: None (locally in Indianapolis, also available for streaming on GoMocs.com)
Line: Butler -13.

Butler has been to back-to-back national championship games. Despite losing them both, they have become the poster child for what every mid-major program hopes to be. The Bulldogs have built up to the point that they are a respected name brand. Brad Stevens has been successful in every way imaginable.

A funny thing has happened through all of that success though. This year, the Bulldogs lost their exhibition game in a stunner, and then were upset by Evansville, 80-77 in overtime, on Saturday.

In other words, this is not your ever so slightly older brother's Butler.

Their offense has been sputtering a bit. Chrishawn Hopkins scored 22 against the Aces while Andrew Smith put in 21. No one else scored in double digits. Of course, those two combined to take 27 of the teams 58 shots. The rest of the team shot under 42 percent and scored just 34 points. They outrebounded Evansville, 31-27, lead by Smith's nine rebounds. They turned the ball over 18 times but forced 17 turnovers. Ronald Nored has 4 assists and three turnovers, while Hopkins had five assists and five turnovers.

Of course, the Bulldogs have nothing on the Mocs in terms of offensive ineffectiveness. The Mocs turned the ball over 25 times, and shot 27% from the field, including 18% in the second half. If Omar Wattad was taken away against the Hoosiers, no Moc would have even approached double figures. Two of the starters, Keegan Bell and Chris Early, did not even score, which is completely unacceptable.

The Mocs did completely dominate the boards against Indiana, which means they brought the effort. The shots simply were not falling. They also turned the ball over 25 times, which is not acceptable, either. If there is one thing you can count on from the Bulldogs, it is that they will bring toughness and defense. They held the Aces to 41% shooting. The Mocs will need to shoot much better than they did against Indiana to have a chance, and that may be asking too much.

Smith is 6-11, 239, which may prove too much for any Moc to handle. Z Mason was acceptable against Indiana. He is the widest body, but is not tall enough probably. Zlovaric played well, and will need produce more of the same.

Wattad and Bell will also need big games, and Ricky Taylor needs to shoot better. Wattad is a tremendous shooter. Bell is a good distributor but needs to be a scorer to help things out. Taylor needs to shoot much better. Rico White and Lance Stokes, and even Jared Bryant need to bring out good performances. Jahmal Burroughs also played really well against the Hoosiers, all things considered.

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. If the Mocs can rebound as well against Butler as they did against Indiana, they should be able to hang around in the game.
--The Mocs need to not let Butler's physical style get to them. This will be good practice for Davidson and Elon. They need to not let it get into their heads.
--Zlovaric and the gang against Smith. The Mocs have to come up with a way to control the Butler big man. He is going to be a load for them to handle. He may be the toughest big man the Mocs face this year- unless UK develops an inside presence between now and when the Mocs play them.
--Bell. He has to control the tempo. He has to not turn the ball over, while keeping the Mocs in their offense. It would not hurt my feelings any if he decided to drop about 15-20 points, which is certainly not outside the realm of possibility.
--A surprise scorer. Someone needs to be a surprise scorer for the Mocs. It doesn't matter who. Just someone needs to come on to complement Wattad. Probably that needs to be someone other than Bell or Taylor as well, since they are the players expected to complement Wattad. Maybe something from someone like Rico White. That would be huge.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Bell and Early will both score SOME points in this game.
--Smith will score at least 25 points for Butler.
--Wattad will score plenty of points again.
--The Mocs will turn the ball over too many times in the end.
--Butler 65, Mocs 51. The Mocs will turn the ball over too much, but the defenses will dominate for both teams. Neither team will score well. The Bulldogs will find a way to win their home opener, but it won't be easy. The Mocs offense will look slightly better, but still will not be pretty. That's too much to overcome.

GO MOCS!