Battle for the Fourth Bye: Two Weeks Left

So now things start to really get interesting. There are four teams within two games of the fourth bye spot with three or four SoCon games to play. Davidson has clinched the division. Elon can clinch the North on Thursday. College of Charleston is up three games on the team in the fifth spot, so the Cougars have all but put away a bye as well.

With three teams within one half game, and a fourth team sitting two games back, the fourth bye race is heating up. Let's look at the remaining SoCon schedule for all four of the teams- all the way until the end.

Samford
Feb 21 Elon
Feb 23 UNCG
Feb 28 at Appalachian State
Mar 2 at Western Carolina

Western Carolina
Feb 20 College of Charleston
Feb 28 Chattanooga
Mar 2 Samford

Appalachian State
Feb 20 The Citadel
Feb 28 Samford
Mar 2 Chattanooga

Chattanooga
Feb 21 UNCG
Feb 23 Elon
Feb 28 at Western Carolina
Mar 2 at Appalachian State

JUDGING THE SCHEDULES
So who has the schedule that puts them in the best situation? Samford and Chattanooga have identical schedules, but the Mocs really need help. They need Samford to lose two of their remaining four games, while the Mocs would have to win all four games. So advantage to Samford there in that schedule. Western Carolina and Appalachian State both have only home games remaining, and have two common opponents (Samford and Chattanooga). Western Carolina has to play College of Charleston, while Appalachian State has to play The Citadel. Edge: Appalachian State. Ranking the teams based on remaining schedule:

1) Appalachian State
2) Western Carolina
3) Samford
4) Chattanooga

BREAKING DOWN THE CHANCES

Basically, if the Mocs win out and Western Carolina and Appalachian State both beat Samford and win out other than that, the teams would finish in a four way tie. The Mocs would be 5-1 against the three teams. Without knowing the updated tiebreaker procedures (I have an e-mail into the conference about it), I am assuming that would be the tiebreaker. This is probably the way that gives the Mocs the best chance at the bye with the least amount of help from the outside.

Samford will have to win both home games against Elon and UNCG, while going on the road and beating Western Carolina on the road. If they do that, then the worst they could do is tie Appalachian State, and (unless the tiebreaking procedure has changed) they would own the tiebreaker by virtue of Samford's win over College of Charleston.

Western Carolina's best chance to win out. Win out, and they would own the tiebreaker over Appalachian State (by virtue of their win over College of Charleston). That's the Catamounts best chance to get the division.

Appalachian State only has to win out and Western Carolina just needs to lose once. With the Catamounts playing three solid teams, this is a distinct possibility.

Basically, I think the favorite is probably Appalachian State. However, the Mountaineers have been the most inconsistent team in the SoCon this year, I think. Samford is my next choice.

Still, it is anyone's race. This should be very interesting. Very exciting race.

Daily Dribbles- 2/18/13

--UNCG's loss to Appalachian State really hurts their chances of getting the bye. In fact, I think it is just about impossible now. The Spartans lost both home games against Western Carolina and Appalachian State, something they could not afford to happen.

--Chattanooga's loss to Wofford also severely hurt their chances of getting the fourth bye. Right now, things look great for Appalachian State, Western Carolina, and Samford, all fighting it out until the very end.

--Interestingly enough, Samford could still catch Elon for first in the division. If Samford beats Elon at home this week, the lead would be down to two games with three to go and the Bulldogs would have split against the Phoenix. Huge game on Thursday evening for Samford. I was incorrect on Friday when I saw Elon had almost put the division away.

--Davidson has clinched the South thanks to their win over The Citadel on Saturday evening.

--King Kresse has a wrap up of the Cougars win over Georgia Southern, which means that the Cougars went 2-1 against teams that beat them earlier this year in their three games in four against teams that they had lost to.

--A preview of the CofC-Western Carolina game on Purple & Gold.

--A summary of Elon's overtime win on Saturday over Western Carolina.

Scanning the SoCon- Week Sixteen

Each week, twelve bloggers/message boarders (one representing each team) all will vote on a Game of the Week and Power Rankings. At least four will answer a series of questions on their team and around the SoCon. Don't forget to check back Monday through Friday to read Daily Dribbles from around the SoCon here on MocsMania. Also, don’t forget to play SoCon Pick ‘Em!

CONTRIBUTORS

Appalachian State- Yosef's Cabin T-Dog
Chattanooga- Mocs Mania- JohnMoc
College of Charleston- King Kresse CougarSurf11
Davidson- Davidson Cats Message Board David Sink
Elon- Elon Pendulum Student Newspaper- Tyler Ash
Furman- The UFFP Message Board- SoConJohn
Georgia Southern- GSU Fans Message Board half-n-half
Samford- Samford Bulldogs Message Board AP
The Citadel- The Sports Arsenal- Sandlapper Spike
UNC-Greensboro- UNCG Basketball Fan DashSpartan
Western Carolina- Purple & Gold Jerry Love
Wofford- Terrier Fans Message Board

SCHEDULE

Sunday

Appalachian State at UNCG

Wednesday

Furman at Davidson

College of Charleston at Western Carolina
The Citadel at Appalachian State

Thursday

UNCG at Chattanooga
Wofford at Georgia Southern
Elon at Samford

Saturday

Coastal Carolina at Western Carolina (Bracketbusters)
Montana at Davidson (Bracketbusters) (ESPNU)
Gardner-Webb at College of Charleston (Bracketbusters)
Furman at Georgia Southern
The Citadel at Presbyterian (Bracketbusters)
Elon at Chattanooga (ESPN3)
UNCG at Samford

POWER RANKINGS

1) Davidson 132 (11)
2) College of Charleston 117
3) Elon 114
4) Samford 94
5) Western Carolina 89
6) Appalachian State 75
7) UNCG 53
8) Georgia Southern 52
9) Chattanooga 51
10) Wofford 48
11) The Citadel 19
12) Furman 14

GAME OF THE WEEK

Elon at Samford (5 votes)  

Others Receiving Votes: College of Charleston at Western Carolina (3 votes), Elon at Chattanooga (2), Montana at Davidson (1)

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team.

Davidson- When I last wrote about Davidson, the Wildcats were 8-1 in the Southern. They've reeled off 6 straight wins (Samford, at Wofford, WCU, ASU, at CofC, at Citadel), and are now 14-1. Those six wins have been by an average margin of 18.5 points. The Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season, have locked up the Southern Division, and are getting contributions from a variety of players. Furman comes to Davidson on Wednesday. Then Montana for a BrackeBuster game. In the final week of the season, the Wildcats visit Elon and host GSU. A #1 seed looks likely. Wildcat fans are still hoping for the return of Clint Mann. In his post-game comments after the win at The Citadel, Coach McKillop talked about wanting to get more minutes for Ali Mackay, Jordan Barham, and Jake Belford. He said that he expected each of those players to be needed down the stretch. Getting more production from those three guys would soften the blow of losing Clint and give us options if the other forwards get in foul trouble.

Elon- The Phoenix has won five of six contests since I last wrote, with the lone loss coming at Wofford. Elon had an impressive week at home at Alumni Gym, beating Appalachian State without the services of star junior forward Lucas Troutman and sharp shooting freshman Tanner Samson on Thursday night. Both players returned for Saturday’s overtime win against Western Carolina, with Sampson hitting a critical three pointer in the extra session. If Elon beats Samford on the road on Thursday, then it will clinch the North Division title and earn a first round bye in the Southern Conference tournament for the second straight year.

Samford- Samford hit a slide starting Jan. 24 at Greensboro, when it lost a very winnable game. The Bulldogs continued by dropping sound losses at Davidson (by 20), at Elon (by 11), and at home against Charleston (the 4-point final margin was deceptive). They bounced back with a 12-point home win against The Citadel, which wasn’t as close as the final score indicates, before dropping an overtime game at Chattanooga. They followed that with a Valentine’s Day massacre against Wofford—the victim of the massacre was beautiful offensive basketball. Samford then went to Greenville where they beat Furman by 11 on a snowy Saturday afternoon. The Bulldog starters have logged a lot of minutes since Jan. 31; only eight Samford players have contributed meaningful minutes during February. I hope their legs hold up over the last two weeks of the season, when they play Elon, Greensboro, WCU, and App State to determine the fourth first-round bye in the SoCon Tournament. If Samford can get the final bye, the Bulldogs have an opportunity to advance—maybe not to Monday night, but at least into the weekend.

The Citadel- The Citadel has won two more SoCon games in the past three weeks, beating Wofford at home and Furman on the road. The victory over the Paladins was notable in that the Bulldogs came back from an 18-point second-half deficit to win. The Citadel scored a almost unbelievable 60 points in the second half. However, the Bulldogs have not won since, and have played very poorly at times (particularly in a home loss to Georgia Southern). Defense has been a major problem all season, as has turnovers. Mike Groselle continues to play well, and P.J. Horgan has been solid. Matt Van Scyoc has had his moments and is going to be a fine player in the league, but those three need more help. The perimeter play has not been nearly consistent enough, either offensively or defensively.

Which coach is on the hottest seat?

Davidson- It has to be Jeff Jackson. Furman fans are tracking how many games below .500 he is for his career, the team has been seriously hobbled by injury, and the Paladins are on a 6 game losing streak. At 6-19 overall with just 4 D1 wins, Furman's coaching staff has to be very nervous.

Elon-  Jeff Jackson, the head coach at Furman, appears to be the coach on the hot seat. Furman has arguably been the worst team in the conference this season as it appears doomed for a first round exit in the Southern Conference tournament. Since taking over in the 2006-2007 season, Jackson has guided Furman to just one season with a winning record in Southern Conference play. After a second straight disappointing season, it may time for Furman to look at another direction for its coaching position.

Georgia Southern- I think there are three coaches who have to feel their seat is pretty warm right now. John Shulman at UTC, Charlton Young at GSU, and Jeff Jackson at Furman. Coach Shulman and Jackson have experienced some success at their respective schools, but have had a rough past few years. Meanwhile Coach Young has stumbled to a 40-81 record in his 4 seasons at GSU. Barring a deep run in the SoCon tournament by any of these schools I think all 3 could be looking for a new head coach in March.

Samford- From the outside looking in, it should be Jeff Jackson. He’s been at Furman for almost seven full seasons and has won only 38% of his SoCon games. He has only been above .500 in conference play once, though he was within one game of .500 in both 2007 and 2012. That is worse than Furman’s recent history—the Paladins were above .500 in the SoCon a dozen times between 1994 and Jackson’s first season. He was nearly 40 games under .500 as a head coach at New Hampshire, so his history as a head coach really works against him. He has made neither the NCAA nor the NIT in a decade as a head coach (barring a great four-day run in Asheville by the Paladins). I don’t know what his contract situation is, but Furman already has lost 14 SoCon games by double figures in the last three seasons alone—two of which were among Jackson’s best. Jackson probably should be fired after the end of the season. John Shulman doesn’t have an athletic director and he does have post-season trips on his resume, so he’s probably in less trouble than Jackson. And, if Georgia Southern gets an invite to the Sun Belt, I anticipate Charlton Young is going to be the first person fired in their athletic department.

The Citadel- Jeff Jackson at Furman is 6-19 this season in his seventh year in Greenville. He has only had one winning season with the Paladins.

Western Carolina- Furman’s Jeff Jackson.  While Furman doesn’t routinely fire coaches, I think that the administration will finally see that the seven years they’ve given Jackson, were more than ample time to win at Furman.  I don’t know if he as a year or two left on his contract, but I’m sure one of the big pocket supports of FU will step forward and buy it out.  I think Jackson’s current record of 6-19 overall and just 3-11 in the SoCon is more than ample reason to make this move.

What are your predictions for the Bracketbuster games this weekend?

Davidson- 4-0. I really like Davidson over Montana and CofC over Gardner-Webb. WCU has the personnel to get it done at home over Coastal. The Citadel is playing much better ball lately. They can get the road win at Presby to secure the season series against the Big South.

Elon-  I am very optimistic about all four Southern Conference teams chances that are playing this weekend in BracketBusters. I believe Citadel will go on the road and beat Presbyterian. Presbyterian has just four wins against Division I opponents (three of their seven wins came against non-division I opponents) and therefore Citadel is more than capable of getting the road win, even if they are having a rough season of their own. College of Charleston should be able to handle Gardner Webb as Charleston is very tough to beat at home. Western Carolina should have their hands full with Coastal Carolina but I think the home-court advantage should give the edge to Western Carolina. The best BracketBuster game of the weekend has to be Montana at Davidson. Each team has lost just one conference game all season, dominating their respective conferences. I will take my chance with Davidson, who is currently riding a ten game  winning streak, as I envision the Southern Conference teams to go 4-0 this weekend in non-conference games.

Samford- I think the SoCon could win three of the four. Davidson gets Montana at home after a long trip, but Montana gets a week of rest and prep before that game. WCU is pretty good in Cullowhee—just ask Mike Young—so I’ll take them over a middling Coastal Carolina team. Gardner-Webb has been up and down this year, but more down than up. I think Charleston is pulling itself together at the right time and they’re more talented than G-W. Citadel is not a safe bet, but Presbyterian is pretty bad. Fortunately, the Blue Hose knew that this season was predestined to happen, so they’re likely less disappointed with their poor record. SoCon 3, Big South 1, Big Sky 0.

The Citadel- 4-0. Three home games, and I think The Citadel will beat Presbyterian in Clinton.

Western Carolina- I see no reason why the SoCon can’t go 4-0, but I’ll hedge my bet and predict 3-1.  I’m kind of iffy on the WCU vs. CCU game (as Western has played much better on the road than at home this season).

Which player would cause a team to struggle the most if he was injured?

Davidson- Andrew Lawrence. CofC is very good with Lawrence. Earlier in the season, they were terrible without him. There are other players (Groselle, Simpson, Sumler, Healy, etc) who are vital to their teams' success, but I don't think that any of them make as big a difference as Lawrence to the team's overall record.

Elon- An injury to Lucas Troutman would be more damaging to the success of a team than any other player in the Southern Conference. Troutman, who just scored his 1,000 point as a member of the Elon Phoenix this past week, is a dominant force in the post. Defenders have struggled to guard the 6-10 junior, who is fourth in the conference in scoring. Troutman is second in the league in field goal percentage, shooting a remarkable 54.6 percent from the field.  Troutman also has an immense impact on defense, leading the Southern Conference in blocked shots.  He also is in the top 15 in rebounding, making one of the most valuable players in the Southern Conference.

Georgia Southern- The answer to this question should be Eric Ferguson at Georgia Southern, but it's not. Davidson wouldn't be the same without Cohen or Brooks. UNCG wouldn't be the same without Simpson. App wouldn't be the same without Healy. Elon wouldn't be the same without Isenbarger or Troutman. Samford wouldn't be the same without Tim Williams. But I think Trey Sumler at WCU is the one player that makes the biggest difference at his school. He leads them in scoring by a wide margin and also leads WCU in assists and the conference in steals.

Samford- I think the single most critical player to his team at this point is Tim Williams (Fr., Samford). Tim is the only player on the roster who is taller than 6-5, the only post threat, and is an absolutely essential cog in the pick-and-roll game that SU plays when the shot clock runs down. With Williams, Samford is contending for a bye; without him, they’re Furman. Tough spot for a freshman, but it’s true. Runner-up is Trey Sumler, who is the only WCU player that can get his own shot and he gets a lot of offense for the rest of that roster.

The Citadel- I think it's either Mike Groselle or Trey Sumler.

SoCon Monster Game of the Week

Davidson beat College of Charleston last week, which left our Davidson rep, David, to pick the SoCon Monster Game of the Week for the second time in three weeks. I asked him to not consider any of the BracketBuster games since there are so many important SoCon games as we head down the stretch. Here is his choice, and why he picked it:

"I'm picking Saturday's Elon at Chattanooga game. Elon will be trying to seal the North title and stay in contention for the #1 seed. Chattanooga will be fighting for pride and trying to win their final home game. Elon won the first meeting 85-61. Chattanooga was very successful in that game at getting to the line. They shot 24 free throws to Elon's 8. Chattanooga is even better at getting to the line at home. They watched Elon's Jack Isenbarger score 23 points and shoot 7-13 on 3-pointers. He'll be effective against Chattanooga's young guards, but he won't make 7 threes. Drazen Zlovaric scored 0 and Lucas Troutman had 18. I just can't see that happening again. Not in Zlovaric's final home game. I'm picking Elon in this one, but by a very small margin. 72-68 sounds about right. But I'll be cheering for the Mocs."

Wofford 78, Mocs 58

OK- I had serious internet connection problems last night. About halfway through the first half, my internet died, and I spend the next couple of hours working out the problem (with the help of the staff of my internet service provider). Lots of fun.

But it was obvious at the beginning, though, that the Mocs were not playing well. Karl Cochran was exploding, and he wound up with thirty points. We said in the pregame that Wofford was the worst shooting team in the SoCon, and the Mocs were the worst defensive shooting team in the league, and the key would be which team performed better in that area.

Well, the clear winner in that regard was Wofford, who had one of their best shooting nights of the year. They shot well over 50%. So, even though the Mocs rebounded well, they did not force Wofford into a lot of turnovers, and they did not stop the Terriers from shooting the ball well. That will get you beat.

Z Mason had a huge game, ending up with 24 points and six rebounds, and Gee McGhee wound up with 13. This is further proof that the Mocs have developed two relatively consistent scorers. Both of those guys are going to get their points in a game. This is why I really think both could be first team All SoCon next year, and why I think next year could be good for the Mocs.

As for right now, they missed a golden opportunity to gain ground on Western Carolina in the bye race, who lost to Elon. The Mocs basically need to win out to get the fourth bye. A 3-1 record would get them to 9-9 in SoCon play, which probably leaves them out of luck, but you never know. We'll have to wait and see.

The Mocs need to play well at home next week to re-establish their good play. If they can follow that up with a solid performance in the two road games against Western Carolina and Appalachian State, there will be reason for hope in March.

We'll see. Disappointing night. Very disappointing. Probably good I missed it in the end.

GO MOCS!

Four Factors Wofford

eFG%
Terriers- 62.5%
Mocs- 38.0%
Advantage- Terriers

TO%
Terriers- 13.3%
Mocs- 20.3%
Advantage- Terriers

OR%
Terriers- 0.7%
Mocs- 27.8%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Terriers- 34.6%
Mocs- 42.6%
Advantage- Mocs

3PA%
Terriers- 42.3%
Mocs- 40.7%

SoCon Pick 'Em Week Eight

Here are the standings through Week Seven. Game of the week will be announced on Sunday. No BracketBuster games are involved in the Pick 'Em- only conference games have been included throughout, and that's the way we're going to continue from here.

Good luck!

Sunday (pick due by 1:00 PM Eastern)

Appalachian State at UNCG

Wednesday (picks due by 6:00 PM Eastern)

Furman at Davidson
College of Charleston at Western Carolina
The Citadel at Appalachian State

Thursday (picks due by 6:00 PM Eastern)

UNCG at Chattanooga
Wofford at Georgia Southern
Elon at Samford

Saturday (picks due by 6:00 PM Eastern)

Furman at Georgia Southern
Elon at Chattanooga (ESPN3)
UNCG at Samford

SoCon Pick 'Em- 2/16/13

Standings Through Week Seven

1) Hugh Hughes 66
2) Muskie24 65
3t) SoConJohn 63
3t) WildCock 63
3t) DC_Int'l 63
6t) David 61
6t) GoalCat 61
8t) JohnMoc 60
8t) half-n-half 60
10) Clarkdr21 59
11t) Jerry Love 57
11t) T-Dog 57
13t) Bill Casey 56
13t) Jay 56
15t) CougarSurf11 54
15t) AP 54
17) WinthropSpartan 52
18) DashSpartan 50
19) Cujo 27
20) earle & patty 21
21t) GACoug 20
21t) BVGerd 20
23) Waitress 18
24) Mike 17
25t) ChasCougs 15
25t) bdf 15
27) Coug04 14
28) Chris 12
29) Joe 7
30) ElonFireFighter 6

Weekly Winner:

Muskie24 14
WildCock 14
Hugh Hughes 14

Battle of North vs. South- 2/16/13

Saturday Scores

Samford (N) 64
Furman (S) 53

Chattanooga (N) 58
Wofford (S) 78

at North
North- 12
South- 8

at South
North- 13
South- 11

Overall
North- 25
South- 19

ANALYSIS

The North has officially beaten the South. It's over. The North is up by six games with just four games left, and there is no way for the South to catch them. Few people expected the North to win in the preseason, but they pulled it off. It has been surprising. So surprising, that the North is heavily favored in the SoCon Tournament to send at least two teams to the semifinals opposite College of Charleston and Davidson. The quarterfinals are probably favored to have six teams from the North and two teams from the South. We'll see if this holds up.

Wofford Preview: Prove It

The Mocs dominated The Citadel and Furman on the most recent homestand. They survived in overtime against Samford, and barely lost to College of Charleston. In other words, the Mocs played their best basketball of the season over the last week or so.

Now, the Mocs head to Wofford. It's time to prove whether or not the Mocs have truly turned a corner, or if they have just been playing well at home. It's prove it time for the Mocs.

Wofford's offense was terrible against Samford on Thursday. They scored just 33 points for the whole game. They allowed only 40, though, so they really hung close despite their terrible offensive showing. The Terriers only have three scorers who average more than 4.5 points per game. All three of them average in double figures. The Mocs will try to shut down the Terriers terrible offense. The Terriers are rated as the worst offense in the SoCon according to Pomeroy's statistics. They have an eFG of just 42.7%, worst in the conference. They are shooting just 26.9% from three point range in SoCon play. They also have the ninth highest TO% in the conference. The Mocs defense has allowed opponents to shoot 53.1% from two point range, worst in the SoCon. Wofford is shooting 43.7% from two point range, worst in the SoCon. Which team plays closer to their norm?

Karl Cochran shoots 30.5% from three point range and 35.2% from the field. He averages taking 16 shots per game, and averages 15.2 points per game. He also comes up with 2.2 steals and 0.7 blocks per game, both team highs. He averages 4.3 rebounds, which is second on the team. He also averages 1.6 assists per game, which is good for fourth on the team. It takes him a lot of shots to get his points, but he has been the Terriers best player. Cochran plays over thirty minutes per game.

Spencer Collins is averaging 12.8 points per game on 33.0% shooting from long range to go along with 38.4% shooting from the field. He averages playing 28.6 minutes per game. He plays a lot, and is slightly more efficient in taking shots to score than Cochran, but is still not a great shooter.

Lee Skinner is the other double figuring scoring Terrier. He is averaging 10.1 points per game, 7.3 rebounds per game (to lead the team), 1.9 assists (third on the team), and 1.3 steals (second on the team). He is shooting 41.6% from the field. He has made just four of 39 from three point range on the year. He hasn't tried any in the last four games, finally figuring out that he is struggling from long distance. He scored ten of the teams 33 points against Samford.

One of the best names in the whole Southern Conference is on the Terriers. Indiana Faithfull is a 6-4 sophmore, and leads the team in assists with 3.6 per contest. He is also third on the team in rebounds with 3.3 per game. He averages just 4.1 points per game on 37.2% shooting from long range and 35.6% from the field. He is not a big scorer, but he sets up the offense. He averages 2.2 turnovers per game.

The Terriers are only the ninth best team in the SoCon in OR%, while the Mocs rank second in DR%. However, the Mocs rank first in the SoCon in OR%, and the Terriers are first in DR%. The Terriers and the Mocs battle on the glass will be interesting, and critical to who wins this game.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Wofford will score more points than they scored on Thursday at Samford.
--The Mocs will score more points than Samford scored on Thursday against Wofford.
--Against the Terriers undersized lineup (tallest players are Skinner and Jarrell Byrd both at 6-6), Z Mason and Drazen Zlovaric will each have good games.
--Against the Terriers good defensive guards, Gee McGhee and Rico White will both struggle to score.
--The Mocs pressure defense will bother the Terriers.
--The Terriers, who have done a very good job of forcing turnovers (second in the SoCon), will force the Mocs into more turnovers than they have been committing recently.
--Terriers 62, Mocs 60. This game is going to come down to the very last possession. In close games on the road, the Mocs beat Samford and The Citadel, but lost several other close road games. This is going to be a war down until the end. The Mocs will prove that they are on the way up and improving, but not quite there yet. Just for the record this year, when I have picked the Mocs to lose they have gone 1-12, with Samford being the lone exception. I would love to have that record be 2-12 at the end of the day.

GO MOCS!

Daily Dribbles- 2/15/13

--Davidson's win over College of Charleston basically ends any chance of the Cougars catching the Wildcats. The lead is three games with four to play and the Wildcats own the tiebreaker over the Cougars by virtue of sweeping them. That means if Davidson wins at The Citadel on Saturday, they clinch one of the top two seeds in the South.

--By the same token, if Elon beats Western Carolina on Saturday, the Phoenix will clinch the North Division. They already lead the Catamounts by two and a half games, and with a win would be up three and a half games. The Catamounts would at best be able to tie the Phoenix, and Elon would have swept Western Carolina. In other words, on Saturday, both divisions can be swept.

--College of Charleston is in fine shape. They are up by three games right now on the final bye position. Really no reason to panic for the Cougars at all. Basically, they are locked into the three seed in the SoCon Tournament.

--In terms of the fourth bye race, this weekend is key. With Western Carolina's win over UNCG, the Catamounts are ahead of the everyone in the bye race. They lead the Samford by one half game, Appalachian State by one game, Chattanooga by one and a half games, and UNCG and Georgia Southern by two and a half. UNCG hosts Appalachian State (on Sunday), Western Carolina goes to Elon, Chattanooga goes to Wofford, Samford heads to Furman, and Georgia Southern is on the road against College of Charleston. We'll know a lot more about the bye race come Sunday afternoon.

Mocs 83, Furman 49

Well, now, THAT was impressive.

Yes, I know that Furman is not a good basketball team, currently sitting in eleventh place in the SoCon standings, and with injuries and what not, this team is probably even less than that. But it doesn't change this simple fact.

Furman had lost nine games prior to tonight in SoCon play. Those losses came by an average of 10.1 points per game, and only one was by more than fourteen points. That includes a four point loss at College of Charleston and an eight point loss at home against Davidson.

On a schedule that included a home date with Clemson, a trip to Wake Forest, a trip to Mercer, a trip to Loyola-Illinois, a trip to Auburn and a road game against SMU, the Paladins had not lost by more than 27 points.

Until tonight.

Yes, that was a beatdown of massive proportions. Gee McGhee scored 16 points to lead Mocs. Eric Robertson contributed a noisy 14 points. He looked very good tonight. Farad Cobb scored twelve and had six assists. Rico White scored nine and had five assists. Z Mason struggled from floor, scoring just five points, but added nine rebounds.

Drazen Zlovaric broke his nose during the game, but scored six points in just ten minutes. Casey Jones was welcomed back to the line-up (which a huge smile) and scored four points.

No one played more than 22 minutes. That means that the Mocs should not be suffering from tired legs when they go on the road to take on Wofford on Saturday evening.

Yesterday, in the preview, it was mentioned that Furman was one of the teams that struggled the most with turnovers in the whole SoCon. It showed tonight. The Paladins committed twenty turnovers. Stephen Croone was responsible for eight of those. The Mocs completely manhandled them in the turnover department, and then won the battle of the boards by sixteen, collecting just over 39% of the offensive rebounding opportunities. Not as good as they did against Samford, but still very impressive.

This team continues to grow up right before our eyes. This team is just getting better and better. They have really come to play in these four home games. The real question is how the Mocs will perform on the road. With five SoCon games left and three of them on the road, whether or not the Mocs will get the bye could well come down to how they perform on the road. Saturday night's game against Wofford will be unbelievably big. If the Mocs beat Wofford, then it is time to really start talking about the Mocs in the bye race.

In the mean time, the Mocs should feel good about themselves as they drive out to Spartanburg. They just played their best game of the year....for the fourth straight game.

GO MOCS!

Four Factors: Furman

eFG%
Paladins- 41.2%
Mocs- 49.4%
Advantage- Mocs

TO%
Paladins- 27.7%
Mocs- 14.7%
Advantage- Mocs

OR%
Paladins- 12.5%
Mocs- 39.1%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Paladins- 21.6%
Mocs- 13.0%
Advantage- Mocs

3PA%
Paladins- 41.2%
Mocs- 31.2%

Battle of North vs. South- 2/14/13

Thursdays Scores

Furman (S) 49
Chattanooga (N) 83

Wofford (S) 33
Samford (N) 40

at North
North- 12
South- 8

at South
North- 12
South- 10

Overall
North- 24
South- 18

ANALYSIS

The North has clinched no worse than a tie for the title in the battle, and have two chances to clinch it on Saturday. Samford visits Furman and Chattanooga goes to Wofford. If Samford or Chattanooga can win a road game, then the North will have the battle clinched. With two weeks to go, that is surprising. Most people expected the South to win preseason. Get this- College of Charleston and Davidson are 13-1 against the North. The rest of the South is 5-23. That tells everyone just how unlikely it is that the bottom four in the South can win a game in the tournament against the North. But we'll have to wait and see.

SoCon Pick 'Em Standings- 2/14/13

We have a new leader.

1t) Hugh Hughes 60
1t) Muskie24 60
3) SoConJohn 59
4) DC_Int'l 58
5t) WildCock 57
5t) GoalCat 57
7) David 56
8t) JohnMoc 55
8t) Clarkdr21 55
10) half-n-half 54
11) Jerry Love 53
12) T Dog 52
13) Bill Casey 51
14) Jay 50
15) CougarSurf11 49
16t) AP 48
16t) WinthropSpartan 48
18) DashSpartan 47
19) Cujo 27
20) earle & patty 21
21t) GACoug 20
21t)  BVGerd 20
23) Waitress 18
24) Mike 17
25t) ChasCougs 15
25t) bdf 15
27) Coug04 14
28) Chris 12
29) Joe 7
30) ElonFireFighter 6

Weekly Leaders:
GoalCat 9
Muskie24 9
Jerry Love 9

Daily Dribbles- 2/14/13

--Davidson and College of Charleston meet in the biggest game of the SoCon year to date. King Kresse has a very nice preview.

--The bye race is going to be interesting in this one. There are five teams withing one and a half of the bye. Samford hosts Wofford. Chattanooga hosts Furman. Appalachian State has a very tough trip to Elon. Western Carolina and UNCG hook up in a match-up of two teams right there in the bye race. Should be another huge night in the race for the bye in the SoCon.

--That huge match-up between Western and UNCG? Of course Purple & Gold has a preview of that.

--Don't forget to get your SoCon Pick 'Em picks in to me by Thursday at 6:00 PM Eastern if you have not done it yet!

Furman Preview: Feeling the Love

The Mocs take the floor against Furman on Valentine's Day, feeling the best about themselves that they have felt most of the year. They are sitting at 5-7 in SoCon play, and find themselves just one and a half games out of the fourth SoCon bye.

Yes, the Paladins are struggling, but the Mocs have to make sure that they come focused and prepared and take care of business at home.

After Furman beat Georgia Southern on January 31, there was a sudden feeling that the Paladins might in fact be in the bye race. All they had to do was beat The Citadel at home and they would be 4-5 in SoCon play and right in the heart of the race, with a struggling UNCG team coming to town the following week. They lead The Citadel 40-24, and then everything fell apart....and they have really never come back together. They lost to The Citadel, then lost by 23 at home against UNCG, before having a solid home showing against Elon (a four point loss), and a decent showing on the road (a six point loss to Appalachian State).

In other words, Furman has not been getting blown out, including a four point loss at College of Charleston and an eight point home loss to Davidson. The blow out to UNCG was apparrenly an anomaly. Will they be able to show up in Chattanooga and come up with and stun the Mocs faithful who are expecting an easy win?

The Reddick twins lead Furman. Colin Reddick is a handful. He is 6-9, 240 pounds. He is shooting 51.9% from the floor, and is the only Paladin in double figures. He is averaging 12.7 points per game while also averaging 6.4 rebounds per contest. Charlie Reddick is 6-5. He is second on the team in rebounds with 5.1 boards per game. He is averaging 9.5 points per game. He has also made 31 three pointers, which is tied for the team lead with Larry Wideman, and one ahead of Bobby Austin.

Wideman is averaging 7.9 points per game to go along with his threes. Austin is averaging 6.4 points per game.

Stephen Croone is second on the team in scoring with 9.7 points per game. He leads the team with 4.2 assists per game. He had 14 assists against South Wesleyan and 12 assists against The Citadel. He has averaged 13.1 points per game in the last seven games. He has scored in double digits in every game during that stretch. He had only scored in double figures in six of sixteen games prior to that.

Furman is the worst team in the conference at committing turnovers. They commit turnovers on 23% of their possessions in SoCon play. If the Mocs continue their pressure defense, they will likely be able to force some turnovers from the Paladins. They are also not a great rebounding team, whereas the Mocs are a very good rebounding team. Drazen Zlovaric and Z Mason will have to control Colin Reddick's inside presence.

When Furman has been able to retain possession of the ball, they actually have been a pretty good shooting team. They have an eFG% of 50.7, which is good enough for fifth in the SoCon. The Mocs have not been able to get teams to stop making shots in almost any situation this year. That changed against Samford, when the Mocs played some solid defense after a hot start by the Bulldogs. Lance Stokes defense has really helped the Mocs. He can shut down one of the opposing teams players. He will probably be assigned to Croone, because that is the player that most likely needs to be shut down for the Paladins.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Colin Reddick and Charlie Reddick will wind up making me feel more than a little nervous about this one.
--The Paladins will find a way to make a few threes- particularly Bobby Austin.
--Gee McGhee will get the ball to the basket and have a solid game.
--Drazen Zlovaric will continue his current hot streak.
--Z Mason will have another solid performance.
--Rico White may not score, but he will continue to distribute the ball.
--Mocs 77, Furman 68. The Mocs will force enough turnovers to hold down the Paladins. My biggest question is about the Mocs freshness. After all, we know that they were tired heading into Monday's game, and that went overtime. So how will they be coming back 72 hours later? Will they have their legs back? If they do, the Mocs will likely be able to come up with the win. If they don't, this will be a battle to the end.

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Preview: Davidson at College of Charleston

One more time, the Wildcats and Cougars hook up in Charleston as SoCon members.

This one is as important as any previous match-up has been for these two teams. They have the two best records in the SoCon. There are three teams in the SoCon who have been good this year- Elon, College of Charleston, and Davidson. The top seed is going to avoid any of those other teams until the championship game, while the other two would have a potential match-up in the semifinals. Getting to the top seed line is critical for all three of those teams.

Davidson is 12-1, while College of Charleston is 10-3 in SoCon play. If Davidson wins, they will have virtually have eliminated the Cougars from the race for the number one seed. If the Cougars win, the lead will be down to one game. That is all part of what makes this such a huge game.

The Wildcats have won eight straight games. They also have a tremendous offense. De'Mon Brooks and Jake Cohen lead the team in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. They are the only two Wildcats to average in double figures. They began the year as the Co-Players of the Year from a year ago. At the midseason, Brooks was the favorite to win the SoCon Player of the Year. At this point, I'm not sure if that still holds true. Both have been good, but Cohen now is averaging more points per game on better shooting, more assists and more blocks. Brooks only advantage is in rebounding and steals. Will either player win Player of the Year? I'm not sure. Cohen's 14.0 points per game is good but not great, and he combines that with 5.8 rebounds per game. Brooks is averaging 13.6 points and 6.4 rebounds. Cohen loves to hit the three ball, making 26 on the year on 40% shooting from long range.

JP Kuhlman has been playing better this year. He is averaging 7.8 points per game and 3.4 assists per game. He has had seven assists in each of the last two games. Kuhlman did not play at Georgia Southern, the Wildcats lone loss in SoCon play this year. Kuhlman will need to be very good in this one, because the Cougars defense has been very good.

As long time readers of this blog know, I love Chris Czerapowicz. Czerapowicz has made 40.2% of his threes on the year and is averaging 8.9 points per game. Also, Tyler Kalinoski has made 38 threes and is shooting 34.5% from three point range. Kalinoski and Czerapowicz will both have their chances to make threes in this one and loosen up the defense. It will be critical for the Wildcats that they do. The Cougars defense is one of the best in the league, so the Wildcats top notch offense will be put to the test.

The Cougars have won six straight. The Cougars are an interesting team. When they don't turn the ball over, they are an efficient offense. They normally shoot the ball well, although they made just 5 of 19 from long range against Chattanooga on Saturday night. Trent Wiedeman came to life in that one, scoring 16 and coming up with ten rebounds. He is slowly coming back from his earlier injury, and has had two very good games in the last three. He needs to come up big in this one.

When Wiedeman comes to life, that makes this team all the tougher, because Adejhi Baru has gotten very good. He is averaging 10.0 points and 8.5 rebounds. He has become a force to contend with down low, and his offensive game is developing all the time.

The guard play has been inconsistent for the Cougars, but when it is going well, it goes really well. Andrew Lawrence has shot 38.5% from three point range, and shot 13.7 points per game, along with four assists per game. He is the Cougars leading scorer and can by dynamic from long range. Anthony Stitt is shooting 39.4% from three point range, while being second on the team in scoring with 10.9 points per game and 3.2 assists.

The Cougars are the best rebounding team in the league, while Davidson is not far behind. These are two of the top rebounding teams in the SoCon. The importance of winning the rebounding battle can not be overstated. The Cougars do not want the Wildcats to be able to get out and run after a defensive board. The Wildcats also need to keep the second chance points to a minimum.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Thought the Cougars struggled from three point range on Saturday? Don't count on that happening again. Lawrence will shoot well, and so will Kalinoski.
--The Cougars will outrebound the Wildcats.
--Adejhi Baru and Wiedeman will have big games.
--Look for Brooks to have a breakout performance.
--College of Charleston 77, Davidson 72. The Cougars will get plenty of second chance points and that will be the difference. They also will play their best home game of the year. They will be amped up to try to get a win over Davidson in Charleston for the last time. This should be a war and will come down to the very end, but the Cougars will find a way to get things done.

Daily Dribbles- 2/13/13

--Trey Sumler won the SoCon Player of the Week. Deservedly so. Not only did he average 19.7 points per game and have 6.7 rebounds per game, but he hit the game winning shot with time running down against Wofford on Monday night. I know Sumler has his warts (a lot of shots to score his points at times), but he is one of the most exciting players in the SoCon.

--Wofford's loss to Western Carolina is summed up here by Purple & Gold. Always entertaining.

--OK- I normally don't mention threads on message boards, but these two are too good to pass up. Over at Yosef's Cabin there is this thread and this thread. Both discuss the possibility of Appalachian State dropping men's basketball and playing hockey. As you can see from the rebuttals from almost the entire rest of the board, there are many problems with this. But I was having too much fun reading it not to share it with everyone.

--The normal good work by Yosef's Cabin talking about all App State (no Appy, no ASU here) sports, including the ups and downs of this basketball team.

Casey Jones- How Does He Fit In?

Casey Jones should be back on the floor on Thursday night when the Mocs host the Furman Paladins. Jones had been starting before his injury and now is coming back.

Where does he fit into the picture?

The deal is that he (according to Uchiyama on Twitter on Monday evening) Jones is not in particularly good shape at this point. That's fine. He doesn't need to be.

At this point, the Mocs have worked out a rotation of sorts, and I'm very curious where he fits in. Rico White, Gee McGhee, Lance Stokes and Martynas Bareika have been splitting minutes at the three spot. White, McGhee, and Stokes are the starters at the moment, and truthfully it is hard to believe that any of those guys are going to be dropped out of their starting spots for Jones.

However, I do think that Jones can be a contributor. I hate to think that he is going to take Bareika's minutes, because he has been solid, particularly offensively. That being said, Jones had several flashes of athletic prowess. So I'd like to see him continue to develop.

Initially, he should probably play between five and ten minutes taking some minutes from all of the guys playing the three spot. Then, after he works his conditioning back up, he will either earn his way back into the lineup or he won't. It doesn't really matter right now. All that matters is winning as much as they can.

I'm looking forward to seeing Casey Jones in action again. We'll see if he can make the same jump that Gee McGhee has made in the last month plus.

GO MOCS!