Friday, November 19, 2010

Marshall Preview- Renewing the Rivalry

The Mocs and the Herd was one of the great rivalries in the SoCon in the 80s and into the 90s. Marshall's last game in the SoCon might be one that you remember. It's certainly one that this guy remembers. And it's also one that I remember very well.

The Mocs Sweet Sixteen run never happens if they can't escape that overtime Southern Conference Championship Game. And then, Marshall was gone. Gone to bigger and better things. Their basketball program has never been the same, but things are starting to turn around.

The Herd currently have five guys averaging in double figures in points (Tirrell Baines, Johnny Thomas, Dago Pena, DeAndre Kane, and Shaquille Johnson). Eladio Espinosa leads the team with six rebounds a game. Johnny Higgins is averaging seven assists a game, 5.5 rebounds, and nine points per game. They are shooting 54.3% from the field, while just 27.8% from three point range and 63.6% from the free throw line.

Yet, none of that really matters, because we know nothing about this team, yet. They have beaten West Virginia Tech and Glenville State- not exactly a "Who's Who" of any level of basketball. This will be their first game against a Division 1 team.

Compare that to the Mocs, who have played three D-1 teams already that have lost a total of two games (Austin Peay lost one, and Kennesaw State lost to the Mocs). The Mocs have played teams that have beaten an A-10 team, a Missouri Valley team, and an ACC team.

Will the Mocs schedule be an advantage in a game like this one? It's just hard to know for sure. Sometimes playing your first tough game can be an advantage. Sometimes it can be a shock to the system.

Also, something else is familiar about Marshall. Tom Herrion, the former College of Charleston coach, is now the head man at Marshall. Mocs fans love to pick on him, because he reminds them of a furry creature.

Johnson is a returning starter. Higgins may be the most talented newcomer though for the Herd.

Marshall shot 69% from the floor against Glenville State, which was a new program record.

The biggest question is how the Mocs will play. Obviously the Mocs are not a good rebounding team, and Marshall has been rebounding well, albeit against weaker competition. So, can the Mocs rebound? That will determine a lot of the answer to the question of whether or not the Mocs win.

Orlando Allen could be a nightmare match-up for the Mocs. He transferred from Oklahoma, and is 6-10. However, he is yet to score on the year, and has just four total rebounds in 32 minutes. That is not a good start for the big man.

The Thundering Herd are a little bit bigger than the Mocs, but they are not a huge team that will provide massive match-up problems for the Mocs. They will be a bigger team, but not so much so that the Mocs can't hope to match-up.

Keegan Bell will need to play well, but more importantly, someone will need to shoot well. Will that be Taylor? Or Odem? Or Wattad? Or Bell? Doesn't matter. The Mocs need to shoot better so that the inside loosens up for Jefferson and Saffore to operate.

Shulman has said that Jefferson will not start despite the fact that he will get starter minutes. Shulman believes that Jefferson plays better coming off the bench than as a starter. I'm not sure that I buy it considering how well Jefferson played against Kennesaw State, but I do believe that Shulman knows what he is doing and is trying to motivate his players.

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. Probably will be on this list for most of the year at this point.
--Free throw shooting. The Mocs need to shoot 70% to stay in this game.
--Be the aggressor. The Mocs need to be the aggressor early in the game, since Marshall is not used to playing D-1 teams. The Mocs can jump out early if they play the role of aggressor.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Celebrate!
--Regret the Austin Peay loss even more, because the Mocs could have been 3-1.
--Start plotting the best way to cook a Cardinal.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS LOSE
--Console myself by remembering- "Chris Mims with the putback...YES!! MOCS WIN!"
--Probably throw something.
--Take a deep breath, sigh, go to sleep, and remember that there still are more games to be played.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Wattad won't be able to resist shooting for a second straight game. Over/under- 14.5. (I'll take over.)
--Bell won't be able to resist shooting threes in this environment. Over/under-8.5. (I'll take over.)
--The Mocs will shoot the best they have all year and play with the most confidence they have had all year.
--Rebounding will still be a major problem. The Mocs will come up woefully short in that department.
--Marshall 78, Chattanooga 71. The Mocs can't win another road game like this, can they? Until they rebound more consistently well, it is going to be hard to pick them in situations like this.

GO MOCS!

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