Austin Peay Preview- Prove It!

The Mocs were beaten handily by Tennessee on Friday night, losing by twenty in the end. However, it was probably not really that close.

The answer from Moc fans: Let's wait and see what happens Monday night against Austin Peay, a team more our own size.

Well, it's time to prove it.

Austin Peay is picked to finish fourth in the Ohio Valley Conference. However, on Friday night, they beat Saint Louis 64-62, who was picked to finish sixth in the tough Atlantic 10. So maybe, just maybe, this Austin Peay team is better than fourth in the OVC.

The Governors shot 47.7% for the game against the Billikens, lead by Josh Terry's 18 points and Tyshwan Edmondson's 17 points. No one else was in double digits. The Governors made just three three pointers on six attempts. They shot 70.4% from the free throw line. They outrebounded the Billikens 32-23, allowing just six offensive rebounds. John Fraley had seven rebounds, while Edmondson had six. Edmondson made two free throws with under five seconds left to give them the two point lead, and Terry intercepted the inbounds pass to seal the win.

They committed sixteen turnovers with eleven assists, while forcing thirteen turnovers. The Billikens shot nearly 47% from the field, while making 4 of 18 threes.

So, what does all that mean?

The Mocs struggled to get offensive rebounds against Tennessee. Will they be able to get offensive rebounds against the Governors? They did not shoot the ball well, and took an inordinate amount of threes against Tennessee. The Governors did a good job defending the three point line- meaning more poor shooting could be in order. They committed 19 turnovers, while forcing 11. That is actually not bad against Tennessee's pressure defense, but they need to not commit a lot of turnovers if they are going to shoot a lot of threes and not get offensive rebounds, because there are not many points to be had if they turn the ball over on top of that.

The Mocs defense was good against the Vols three point shooters. Of course, Shulman said after the game that he did not like that. If the Governors do not like to shoot threes, what in the world is going to happen with "FIRE!!!!" in this game? Will Austin Peay be willing to put up the shots that they want to from three point range?

DeAntre Jefferson and Chris Early did not look good on the offensive end on Friday night. Will they look better at home? Shulman sure thought that we should expect them to. What about Burroughs? Will he bring it at home? Will Bell press too much in front of the home crowd as he sometimes seems to do? Or will he be in the flow like he was against Tennessee when he scored 20 without really forcing it?

The Mocs offense certainly needs to look more like they want to work it a little than coming down and firing up a three every time down the floor. They need to work it on offense. We'll see if they are able to.

KEYS TO THE GAME
--Mocs ability to offensive rebound.
--Number of shots that Austin Peay takes from three point range, as they should hit a good percentage and they should be relatively open.
--Omar Wattad's three point shooting (not previously mentioned 1 for 11 against Tennessee)
--Percentage of shots from three point range for the Mocs.

WHAT I'LL DO IF THE MOCS WIN
--Breathe a huge sigh of relief.
--Believe that the Mocs can win the SoCon on the same floor in March.
--Get even more excited about Wednesday's game against Kennesaw State.

WHAT I'll DO IF THE GOVERNORS WIN
--Throw things.
--Wonder if this blog wasn't such a good idea.
--Wonder if spending money to watch the Mocs on Chattanooga All-Access was money well spent.
--Take a deep breath, realize that the world is not ending, and the Mocs can still have a nice season...and go to sleep.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT PROBABLY WON'T BE RIGHT
--The Mocs will shoot more than 50 percent of their shots from three point range, causing me to actually start premature balding.
--The Governors will not shoot nearly enough threes given the FIRE!!!! defense prompting Shulman to say, "We didn't give up nearly enough points from three point range- that's just not the John Shulman way."
--Wattad will better than 1 of 11 from three point range- I'm looking for 2 for 9.
--The Mocs find a way to gut out a home win, reminding me why despite some of the things that I question sometimes about Shulman, I always wind up behind him in the end. Chattanooga 67, Austin Peay 63.

GO MOCS!