Thursday, February 10, 2011

SoCon Thursday

Furman 54, Georgia Southern 45
Appalachian State 65, Samford 59

Western Game Moved....Again!

The Mocs will now play on Friday night against Western Carolina at 7:00 PM, while travelling to Appalachian State at 7:00 PM on Saturday night. That will be back to back games. Kind of like the SoCon Tournament I suppose.

The Mocs health and stamina coming off the flu will play a large role in determining these two absolutely critical SoCon North games.

GO MOCS!

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Sickness...

The Mocs have the flu. All of them. Almost literally. Amazingly.

The game against Western Carolina was postponed for good reason. They'll have to review the situation sometime on Friday to see if they will be able to play on Saturday against Appalachian State.

What happens from here? Early will sit out Saturday (assuming the Mocs play). This helps some- they need to win one of these two badly.

The flu is bad....Hope they get over it.

Thanks to Western Carolina, Larry Hunter, the SoCon, and the CDC for their understanding in this situation.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Chattanooga 10-3
2) Western Carolina 7-5
3) Appalachian State 6-7
4) UNC-Greensboro 5-8
5) Samford 4-8
6) Elon 4-10

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 11-2
2) Wofford 10-4
3) Furman 9-4
4) Davidson 7-7
5) The Citadel 5-8
6) Georgia Southern 0-12

Battle of North vs. South

NORTH at SOUTH
South 13, North 4

SOUTH at NORTH
North 10, South 6

NORTH vs. SOUTH
South 19, North 14

SoCon Wednesday

College of Charleton 85, Elon 67
Davidson 67, Wofford 58

Mocs Postponed

Due to the flu running rampant through the team, the Mocs game against Western Carolina for tomorrow night has been postponed until Monday.

Chris Early will now be forced to sit out the Appalachian State game on Saturday rather than the Western Carolina game.

Four Mocs have tested positive for the flu- meaning only four would have been suiting up for the game Thursday night, due to injuries, suspensions, and sickness.

The Mocs now have some more time to collect their thoughts, get together, and get ready for Saturday's showdown with Appalachian State. They need to get well between now and then so they can actually dress enough to play.

More to follow....

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

OOC Opponents

AT A GLANCE

Tennessee- 15-8, 21
Austin Peay- 13-11, 133
Kennesaw State- 5-17, 322
Marshall- 13-8, 64
Louisville- 18-5, 26
Jackson State- 11-10, 203
Florida International- 7-14, 271
Murray State- 16-6, 121
Georgia State- 10-13, 214
Georgia Tech- 10-12, 164

IN DEPTH

Tennessee has been on a bit of a run. It's hard to know exactly where the Vols stand because they have been way up and way down. They had won five in a row before losing to Alabama at home on Saturday. Tonight, they are battling Kentucky, and have Bruce Pearl coming back to coach again. They are a contender in the SEC East, and in the SEC title race.

Austin Peay has suddenly turned cold, and they have fallen behind the both Morehead State and Murray State in the OVC race. The loss at Tennessee Tech last night leaves those two teams tied for third in the conference. The Governors have lost three out of four. They have Fairfield in BracketBusters, and four winnable OVC games left. So they can get back on track.

Kennesaw State beat Campbell last night to get back in the win column. They had lost five straight prior to that, but have Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson at home before a trip to Mercer- all winnable games coming up. The Owls need to get going if they are going to make any noise at all in the Atlantic Sun this year. After their start with a win over Georgia Tech, they have been a disappointment.

Marshall is still the highest ranked win for the Mocs this year. The Herd lost to Southern Miss over the weekend, and are 3-5 in Conference USA play. With UAB, Tulsa, UCF, and UTEP all left as Top 100 RPI teams on the schedule, they are a dangerous team in C-USA. They continue to be mentioned as a major contender to steal a tournament title. They could do it. They have been good- but not great.

Louisville is almost assured to go dancing. They are 7-3 in Big East play. They need to get just two or three more wins to lock up an NCAA bid. They go to Notre Dame tomorrow night in a huge game, and battle Syracuse at home this weekend. The Cardinals will continue to rise up the RPI just by the sheer fact that their schedule will continue to be brutal.

Jackson State had a shocking loss to Alcorn State on Saturday. They are still 9-2 in SWAC play. They have only two road games left- Mississippi Valley State (RPI- 215) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (319). Texas Southern comes to town on Saturday night, and TSU is 9-1 in SWAC play. That game should be a very good game and probably will determine the SWAC regular season champion, although 8-3 Mississippi Valley State may have something to say about it.

Florida International has lost seven out of eight, with their lone win coming over Troy. But their last time out, they lost by one to Top 100 Florida Atlantic. So maybe they are starting to play a little better again. With UL-Lafayette, and Middle Tennessee coming up, the Panthers can get on a bit of a roll if they keep on playing well, before their home rematch with Florida Atlantic. It's time to get going if Isaiah Thomas' team wants to have a solid finish.

Murray State is now back into first place in the OVC, tied with Morehead State. They are the favorites to advance to the NCAA out of the OVC now. It ought to be a very compelling OVC Tournament with Murray State, Austin Peay, Morehead State, and even Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech providing a lot of depth to the league. With only one road game left (at RPI 317 SE Missouri State) and a huge home date with Morehead State, everyone has to like the position the Racers are in to win the regular season title.

Georgia State has beaten UNC-Wilmington and Towson in their last two games to get back in the win column in the CAA. Hofstra, Northeastern, and George Mason all come calling over the next few weeks. Old Dominion is the toughest road game, while Louisiana Tech and William & Mary are the other road games. This team can still make a bit of a run in the CAA, and get to a decent seed in the conference tournament.

Georgia Tech has lost three straight, after winning three out of four. Brian Oliver is now out three weeks. They play Florida State at home and go to Virginia Tech before facing the Mocs. Winning either will be tough. The Yellow Jackets are stumbling a bit. They could smell blood and the ability to get well against the Mocs when they hook up.

GO MOCS!

Saffore Out?

And the hits just keep on coming....

Jeremy Saffore supposedly has the flu and may not play on Thursday night. Saffore, the starting center, is one of the most important parts of the team for the Mocs.

With Watson out due to injury, and Early out due to suspension, the last thing the Mocs need is for Saffore to be out. That would leave them with just Burroughs and Jefferson as inside players. That is not a good thing as the Mocs play a critical game against Western Carolina on Thursday night, and then another crucial game on Saturday.

Can the Mocs rally around all of these injuries? Or are they just too thin right now? Only time will tell.

I hope Saffore gets well, mostly because having the flu stinks. It's awful. It's no fun. Get well soon, Jeremy!

GO MOCS!

RPI Rankings

According to RealTimeRPI.com:

1) College of Charleston 77
2) Furman 111
3) Wofford 132
4) Davidson 184
5) Chattanooga 193
6) Western Carolina 204
7) Appalachian State 207
8) The Citadel 262
9) Samford 278
10) Elon 288
11) UNC-Greensboro 295
12) Georgia Southern 340

SoCon Rank: 20

Predicted Overall Rank: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Rank: 12-6

GO MOCS!

KenPom Rankings

According to KenPom.com:

1) College of Charleston 79
2) Wofford 108
3) Furman 119
4) Davidson 162
5) Western Carolina 187
6) Appalachian State 218
7) Elon 244
8) The Citadel 256
9) UNC-Greensboro 280
10) Chattanooga 282
11) Samford 301
12) Georgia Southern 330

SoCon Rank: 20

Predicted Overall Record: 15-16
Predicted SoCon Record: 11-7

GO MOCS!

Monday, February 7, 2011

SoCon Standings

NORTH
1) Chattanooga 10-3
2) Western Carolina 7-5
3) Appalachian State 6-7
4) UNC-Greensboro 5-8
5) Samford 4-8
6) Elon 4-9

SOUTH
1) College of Charleston 10-2
2) Wofford 10-3
3) Furman 9-4
4) Davidson 6-7
5) The Citadel 5-8
6) Georgia Southern 0-12

GO MOCS!

Battle of North vs. South

NORTH at SOUTH
South 13, North 4

SOUTH at NORTH
North 10, South 5

NORTH vs. SOUTH
South 18, North 14

ANALYSIS: I maintain that this is closer than it should be gives the common perception that the South is so much better than the North. Yes, the South is better- but it is far closer than most fans want to admit. Tonight's dominance by UNCG continues to prove that the divisions are closer than it would appear. Of course, the South is better, but the North could sure use a 8-8 split down the stretch to prove that they belong in the battle between the two divisions.

SoCon Monday

UNC-Greensboro 86, The Citadel 74

ANALYSIS: I watched a large chunk of this game, and UNCG looked pretty darn good. So, the question is this- is The Citadel folding after their hot stretch? Are they beginning to fall apart? Or is UNCG playing this much better than The Citadel right now? Was this just one night? That is three losses in a row for the Bulldogs. This thing is getting tougher and tougher for The Citadel. UNCG keeps their dreams alive for a third place finish alive. They looked very good tonight. I still maintain that both of these teams will be teams that no one wants to be facing on the second day of the tournament- especially the Spartans.

Early Suspended

Chris Early has been suspended for one game for the flagrant foul that lead to his ejection against Davidson on Saturday night.

Should he have been suspended? Should he have not been suspended? That's above my pay grade.

The fact is that two Mocs have been suspended for actions in Belk over the last ten years- and no other Mocs has been suspended for on-court actions during that time. Sounds suspicious, but it doesn't matter. The fact is that Early lost control and he needs to learn to maintain his composure.

It couldn't come at a worse time for the Mocs, as a win over Western Carolina on Thursday would put the Mocs in great shape in the North. A win by Western Carolina completely changes the dynamics and opens the door for the Catamounts to possibly sneak in and steal the division.

Jahmal Burroughs probably starts in his place- but I think I would start Jefferson at 4 and Saffore at 5 and see what happens. The problem- with Watson out, if foul trouble hit, the Mocs could have major problems with depth.

Another possibility- Wattad at 4, Taylor at 3, and Hampton at 2. I like that better than starting Burroughs. I like Burroughs energy off the bench. I would like to keep him coming off the bench.

GO MOCS!

Heat-O-Meter: Mostly Cool

Previous:

Preseason
November
December

OK- so I realize that I am about a week late getting this done, but this is good of a time as any to analyze where Coach Shulman stands at this point in the season.

Let's talk about the negatives:

1) The Mocs are getting hammered on the road consistently right now after winning road games earlier in the year. They have lost their last three road games by at least 14 points against teams that should not have beaten them that badly. There is clearly something wrong with the Mocs on the road right now. With all the road games left, this could be a long term problem.

2) There are times that the Mocs seem to be a touch undisciplined at times when they get in tough environments. They can't get into so much foul trouble. They sometimes lose their heads it seems like, as evidenced by what happened with Chris Early at Davidson.

Now let's focus on positives:

1) He is subbing less and has a more tight rotation.

2) He is playing more zone.

3) He is being less stubborn.

So, where does Shulman really stand? The odds of him being fired after this season are very small, now that he has clinched a winning conference record. However, a total fold down the stretch could change things slightly.

HEAT-O-METER: 3.5. Previously, he sat at 6.5, but he has dropped substantially thanks to the dramatic win over College of Charleston and the winning conference record. Combine that with a likely first round bye in the SoCon Tourney, and it is going to be hard to get him out of town this year, if that's what you're trying to do. It's certainly not what I'm trying to do. But, it could drop to almost nil with a solid finish to the season and a conference tournament title. If that happens, and next year's team should be even better than this year's team, Shulman could have the fire completely put out by the end of next season, not to return for many years to come, and could just keep it on a dull burn until then.

GO MOCS!

Sunday, February 6, 2011

There IS Something Wrong

You all know that I am generally positive about the Mocs. But I try to identify things that I think are wrong when I see them.

And there is something glaringly wrong right now.

The Mocs got 30.5 rebounds over the last two games. Their opponents collected 36.5 over these last two games. This from a team that has been dominating the glass in SoCon play.

Yes, the Mocs beat Georgia Southern, but the fact that they only got 23 rebounds compared to the Eagles 23 was a sign that something was not right. I thought it was fixable and that it would be fixed by the Davidson game. Boy was I wrong. The Wildcats outrebounded the Mocs 50-38. And that is reason number one the Mocs lost the game.

The good news for the Mocs- they've tended to play poorly in twos this year. Now that they have a little bit of time off, maybe they come out with a fire again against Western Carolina and Appalachian State- each critical games to the North race.

Also, the Mocs should be able to correct whatever problems they are having on the boards. This has been a team strength. So, the Mocs should be able to get back to work and correct this problem. With the way Shulman emphasizes rebounding, I'm sure he is on it right now.

The Mocs have a major flaw right now, and no matter what anyone else thinks, it is the fact that the strength that we have been relying on has become a fatal flaw. Until that gets corrected, the Mocs will continue to flounder.

Let's hope it is corrected by Thursday night.

GO MOCS!

SoCon The Week Ahead

MONDAY
The Citadel at UNC-Greensboro 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)

WEDNESDAY
College of Charleston at Elon 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
Davidson at Wofford 7:00

THURSDAY
Samford at Appalachian State 7:00
Chattanooga at Western Carolina 7:00
Georgia Southern at Furman 7:00

SATURDAY
Chattanooga at Appalachian State 2:00
Samford at Western Carolina 2:00
UNC-Greensboro at College of Charleston 4:00 (CSS) (Battle of North vs. South)
Davidson at Furman 6:00 (CSS) (SoCon Monster Game of the Week)
Elon at The Citadel 7:00 (Battle of North vs. South)
Georgia Southern at Wofford 7:00

ANALYSIS

The South currently leads the North, 18-13. There are four match-ups this week between the North and South. UNCG and Elon from the North take on The Citadel and College of Charleston this week. That makes for some interesting battles between North and South, particularly when the South is on the road.

The SoCon Monster Game of the Week is Davidson's visit to Furman. The Wildcats beat the Paladins at home. There is still an outside chance of Davidson catching Furman for third in the South. If Davidson wins, they will own the tiebreaker over the Paladins and have narrowed the gap. The gap between them is currently three games. The Wildcats would have to keep on rolling, while Furman would have to collapse a bit. But Davidson needs to win to stick in the fourth spot in the South, while Furman needs to win to stick around in the critical bye race. This game is huge.

Elon, UNC-Greensboro and Samford all have opportunities this week to sort out the fourth through sixth spot in the North. Appalachian State is barely out of that race for now. The Mountaineers can get back in the bye race this week if Western struggles at home, as those two teams take on Samford and Chattanooga at home. Ought to be a big week in sorting out the North race.

GO MOCS!

RPI Rankings

According to RealTimeRPI.com:

1) College of Charleston 74
2) Furman 111
3) Wofford 131
4) Davidson 184
5) Chattanooga 195
6) Western Carolina 204
7) Appalachian State 211
8) The Citadel 249
9) Samford 278
10) Elon 290
11) UNC-Greensboro 296
12) Georgia Southern 340

SoCon Rank: 19

Predicted Overall Rank: 16-15
Predicted SoCon Rank: 12-6

GO MOCS!

KenPom Rankings

According to KenPom.com:

1) College of Charleston 79
2) Wofford 107
3) Furman 120
4) Davidson 160
5) Western Carolina 187
6) Appalachian State 218
7) The Citadel 244
8) Elon 246
9) Chattanooga 284
10) UNC-Greensboro 289
11) Samford 303
12) Georgia Southern 331

SoCon Rank: 20

Predicted Overall Rank: 15-16
Predicted SoCon Rank: 11-7

GO MOCS!