Thursday, October 25, 2012

Samford Preview: New Faces Lead Transition Year

Each day from October 23-November 3, there will be a blogger/fan previewing their team in this space. For previous previews and the future schedule, click here.
(1)    New Faces: We got ‘em, so let’s start there.

On March 13, 2012, Jimmy Tillette was dismissed as head men’s basketball coach of the Samford Bulldogs. Gone with Tillette were the assistants and staff members who led Samford basketball, for the most part, since 1997. The program had decent success under Tillette (NCAA Tournament appearances in 1999 and 2000, 2006 OVC Tournament Finals, 229 wins) for a mid-major with little winning history (Samford has played basketball since 1901, but is 223 games below .500 when not coached by John Brady or Tillette). The program’s sad recent years never reached that previous success (the tragic death of Jim Griffin two weeks before the 2009-‘10 season, three conference moves and six losing records in ten years, 19+ losses for the last three seasons). Even so, you knew what to expect with Samford basketball: good student/citizen players, Princeton offense, matchup zone defense. No longer; Samford has even run out of Merritts—Jeffrey, the third of three brothers to play at Samford, finished his eligibility with a loss to Furman in the first round of the 2012 SoCon Tournament. The Merritt brothers started 301 combined games, scored more than 3300 total points, accounted for the University’s first All-American award, and had at least one brother on the roster every season since 2002.

On April 4, 2012, Bennie Seltzer—originally from Birmingham, most recently an assistant to Tom Crean at Indiana—was hired to replace Tillette. Seltzer hired a completely new staff, most of whom have high-major and pro credentials, including assistant coaches Scott Padgett (Kentucky, NBA), Yasir Rosemond (Oregon, international pro), and Jake Headrick (Ole Miss), and DOBO Anthony Saccoccia (Indiana, Michigan St.). Since Seltzer was hired, six new players were added to the roster. Those likely to make immediate contributions are Russell Wilson (Fr. PG, 5-11/170), a lockdown defender who was the Florida 5A Player of the Year; Clide Geffrard (Fr. F, 6-5/215), the Florida 7A Player of the Year; Jaylen Beckham (Fr. G, 6-0/160), the #11 PG in the country as a HS sophomore, but had a “well-travelled” HS career; and Tim Williams (Fr. F/C, 6-8/210), a two-sport star in HS.

(2)    Returning Players: Got a few of those too.

Samford returns approximately 50% of its scoring and rebounding, and 40% of its assists, but returns a team leader in only two categories (FT% and steals). Samford lost its two best players to graduation (Merritt) and transfer (Drew Windler, the most skilled offensive player on the team, left for Belmont). Three starters, with a combined 75 starts last season, return: Raijon Kelly (So. G, 6-4/175; 2012 SoCon All-Freshman Team), Tyler Hood (So. F, 6-6/210; 2012 SoCon All-Freshman Team), and Will Cook (Jr. G, 6-4/185). Gregg Wooten (Jr. G, 6-2/195), the presumptive starting PG before preseason practice in 2011, returns from a year-long recovery for an Achilles injury. Connor Miller (So. G, 6-3/170) showed flashes of skill after returning from a preseason knee injury, and his perfect shooting day at home against Davidson was a catalyst to the best win of his freshman season (and, frankly, the best win for Samford in five years). Brandon Hayman (So. G, 6-3/190) defends well, but is limited offensively. Hood and Kelly are the two best players on the team that anyone has seen before.

In case you haven’t noticed, that’s not a towering rotation. It’s possible that length will be provided by Levi Barnes (Jr. C, 6-10/205), a career bit player behind Windler. Barnes has played in 17 total games over two years—never more than 19 minutes in any game—but he’s got some bounce, is a fluid athlete for someone that gangly, and is a natural shot blocker. At this point, however, his ability to compete and contribute is totally unproven.

(3)    Schedule: It’s hard.

Samford, KenPom’s #271 rated team in 2011-12, has the most difficult pre-conference schedule in the SoCon. The Bulldogs play in the mainland part of the Battle 4 Atlantis (all of the beatings, none of the Bahamas). They visit preseason #2 Louisville (2012 Pom # 15), #3 Kentucky (’12 Pom #1), #16 Memphis (’12 Pom #8), and #21 Wisconsin (’12 Pom #5). For the third year of a four year contract, they play UT-Arlington (’12 Pom #116), who has most of its roster back from a team that finished 15-1 in conference, won the Southland regular season title, and went to the NIT (before realigning to the WAC). Other pre-conference games include Florida Gulf Coast (’12 Pom #170), who some believe may challenge Mercer in the A-Sun; Bowling Green (’12 Pom #136); Sam Houston State (’12 Pom 293); and Samford’s former OVC brethren Austin Peay (’12 Pom #219) and UT-Martin (’12 Pom #334). Yes, they have scheduled only one D1 team worse than SU was last year.
 
Charleston and Citadel are Samford’s home-and-home opponents from the South Division, and they host Georgia Southern in the early SoCon game on December 1—the Eagles likely will be farther along developmentally than the Bulldogs at that point. Samford also plays at Davidson (where they have not been competitive since joining the SoCon). The Bulldogs host three North Division games when the students are out on JanTerm (Chattanooga, WCU, Appalachian St.), and their weekend road trip to the mountains is the final week of the regular season, after which they will bus back home and then turn around and bus back up to Asheville for the tournament the next week. Very unkind schedule.
 
(4)    Three Questions I Want Answered:
 
Question 1: Are we better? Samford transitions from a niche, offense-first outlook to a defense-first philosophy this year, so growing pains are expected. Having said that, you can win a lot of basketball games by defending well and creating easy buckets.
 
Question 2: Are we good? If Samford is “better,” the next question is whether they are objectively good. Not likely, but not impossible. And this must be the goal going forward.
 
Question 3: Are we competitive? The SoCon is a decent league and should be better at the top than last season, but Samford theoretically can be competitive in its division. This was an objectively bad team last year that played five freshmen heavy minutes, but was only a Karl Hess blown call away (obvious missed travel late against Greensboro) from leading the North in late February. If SU can establish an identity, improve its team defense, and create opportunities for easy buckets, then it can compete in the North. Hopefully, we can compete for a division title before such a thing no longer exists.
 
(5)    Final Analysis:
 
The pre-conference schedule will be painful. Samford will be more competitive in conference, but likely will not contend for a bye in the tournament. It’s the start of a new era in Samford basketball, and this year will be mostly transitional.

By AP from SamfordBulldogs.com

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