Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Seed Wars: Where Each Team Would Be Seeded

It's time for the annual look at where each team would be seeded if they won the SoCon Tournament. The first piece of this puzzle is looking at the SoCon in general. The SoCon currently ranks 30th in RPI and 30th in KenPom. That's not good pieces of the puzzle. That is going to really hurt any team on the bubble of getting a seed bump.

In a lot of ways, this may be the most boring one of articles ever. Don't expect much. But here it is.

Appalachian State- First Four game. There's no way around it. The Mountaineers would be 9-20 against D1 competition if they won the SoCon Tournament. There may be a boost if Canty came back, but even that would not be anywhere near enough to get the Mountaineers out of the First Four game.

Chattanooga- The Mocs could possibly get out of the First Four game. But would certainly be a 16 seed. The Mocs would only be 18-13 against D1 competition if they won the SoCon Tournament and that would be a problem, but the Mocs RPI right now is 168 if you look at just the games Rico White and Z Mason have each played in. If the committee considered that, they could reward the Mocs by not playing in a First Four game. It is unlikely though.

Davidson- 15 seed. The Wildcats would edge their way up to a 15 seed more than likely with a 21-11 record against D1 teams. The current RPI for Davidson with DeMon Brooks is 108. More than likely, by winning the SoCon Tournament, they would be good enough to be a 15 seed. They could get up to a 14, but the SoCon as a whole will likely prevent that kind of seed bump.

Elon- 16 seed. I think the Phoenix could be in a First Four game, but with a current RPI of 173, I believe the Phoenix would sneak out of Dayton. The Phoenix would be 19-12 against D1 teams. The might have a win over a tournament team in VMI, depending on how the Keydets fare in the Big South Tournament.

Furman- Welcome to Dayton, Paladins! Furman would be 10-20 against D1 teams. There is honestly nowhere else for Furman to go except for to Dayton. I think the Paladins would be thrilled with that opportunity in Niko Medved's first year.

Georgia Southern- The Eagles would be 14-18 against D1 competition if they won the SoCon Tournament, and that is pretty much impossible to keep them out of Dayton. If the Eagles managed somehow to win the SoCon, with a guy like Jelani Hewitt, they would be dangerous in Dayton. Of course, the Sun Belt would be thrilled- adding another tournament team to their conference.

Samford- The Bulldogs would have a losing record, and would wind up in Dayton. At 13-19, Samford would be yet another decent team in Dayton. They would have Tim Williams, which is tough for anyone to handle.

The Citadel- Ten days ago, I would have said that the Bulldogs winning would have been a clear sign of the Apocalypse. Now, after winning two straight games, to go along with two reasonably close games with Davidson, the Bulldogs are in better position than I thought. Regardless, the Bulldogs are heading to Dayton no matter what if they win in Asheville. They would be 7-24 against D1 competition.

UNCG- The Spartans would go to Dayton with at 15-17 record against D1 teams. UNCG is so wildly erratic. There is no predicting what happens with this club. But winding up in Dayton wouldn't be a bad way to end the season for these Spartans.

Western Carolina- The Catamounts would be 17-14 in D1 play if they won the SoCon Tournament. However, it is hard to imagine them escaping Dayton for bracketing purposes. The Catamounts RPI would be no higher than around 200. That is a clear position for getting to Dayton.

Wofford- The Terriers may be able to get up to a 16 seed and out of Dayton. If Wofford were to win the SoCon Tournament, they would be up to 18-12 against D1 teams. The Terriers current RPI is 169. Of course, they don't have any good wins to speak of. So that is why the Terriers would wind up a 16 seed. But they could easily get out of Dayton and a First Four game.

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