SoCon Review- January 17

Wofford 62, Western Carolina 43

Player of the Game: Lee Skinner scored 13 points on 6 of 11 shooting and also collected 11 rebounds. It's about time. Skinner has not seemed to really be himself lately. This was his first double-double of the year. It is probably appropriate that this is one of the best recent performances for Wofford and it coincides with Skinner seeming to come alive.

Stat of the Game: Western Carolina shot 27.8% from the field. Yikes. That is really cold shooting. The Catamounts are a team that relies on a high shooting percentage to win games, and tonight they were anything but hot shooting. Part of that was Wofford's defensive intensity for sure.

What It All Means: For the Catamounts, have they been anointed too soon as a sure fire Top Five team? They are now 3-4 in SoCon play. Of course, all four losses are to the other teams perceived to be in the Top Five (Wofford, Chattanooga, ETSU and Mercer). They are 3-0 against the rest of the conference. They may be a team that is just exactly who they are- not quite good enough to win against elite competition, but plenty good enough to beat the lower competition of the conference. If that's the case, things are going to get worse before they get better. They host Mercer and then go on the road against three teams that people think they are better than. This four game stretch will tell us a ton about where the Catamounts really fit into the conference picture. Wofford finally came out and played with the intensity and focus that we have all been waiting on all conference season. They showed up and dominated the Catamounts pretty much from the outset. They were the hungry team that wanted to win tonight and did not play with the tightness that has plagued this team. It was the sort of night that helps explain why Wofford is still the SoCon favorite, even if they are tied with Chattanooga for second in the conference one half game behind Mercer right now. The Terriers played that game like they were on a mission. If they keep on playing like that, look out SoCon. They get Furman and ETSU at home next week.

VMI 85, ETSU 79

Player of the Game: Fred Iruafemi had scored just 40 points on the season heading into the day. If you took out his first game against ETSU, he had scored just 30 points in fifteen games, or 2.0 points per contest. He scored ten against them on January 2 and scored 16 on Saturday. That's an average of 13.0 points per game against the Bucs. The 6-6, 205 pound freshman will need to put up some big games against some other opponents. He also has just 26 rebounds in the fifteen games not against ETSU, but has collected nine in both contests against the Bucs. Iruafemi could turn into an important player for the Keydets now.

Stat of the Game: ETSU committed 25 turnovers. That's a lot of turnovers. Yes, the Bucs forced 19, but the pressure of the Keydets got to the Bucs, creating more possessions for VMI. That's what their defense is expected to do. Interestingly, they have become one of the better defenses in the SoCon statistically. The offense has not been good, so they need to force turnovers.

What It All Means: For ETSU, this just adds to the puzzle. They are now 5-3 in SoCon play, with a 3-1 record against the other perceived Top Five teams (Wofford, Chattanooga, Mercer and Western Carolina being the other four) and just 2-2 against the perceived Bottom Five teams. That's not good. In their last ten conference games, they play just four at home. This is a team capable of beating anyone in the conference, but capable of losing to anyone in the conference too. Jalen Riley was held to  just thirteen points. This team needs more production out of Rashawn Rembert and Riley than the 32 points they go today. Those two have been combining for 46.4 points per game in their wins in SoCon play and just 35.0 points per game in their losses. The Keydets got to 3-5 in SoCon play. So much for the importance of shooting well. VMI continued to struggle shooting, but all the turnovers and offensive rebounds (22 of them) gave VMI enough shots that they were able to come away with the number of shots necessary to win the game. The big news is that QJ Peterson has taken a medical furlough and will be out the rest of the year. It's remarkable that without him VMI was able to come up with the win. This team is changing everything about it. It will be very interesting to see where they go from here. They go to Chattanooga on Thursday before getting five straight home games. This is the time that VMI needs to start winning if they are going to get into decent position to get a bye.

Furman 74, The Citadel 62

Player of the Game: Devin Sibley. Below, I'll talk about Acox, Ferrara and Croone and how important they are to this game. Sibley scored 25 points on 7 of 11 shooting, while 3 of 4 from three point range and 8 of 10 from the free throw line. He also came up with four rebounds and two blocks. The freshman is coming into his own.

Stat of the Game: Furman 46.7 OR%. The Paladins came up with 14 offensive rebounds in 30 opportunities. That's a huge deal. The Paladins shot 51.9% from the floor and were grabbing an extraordinary number of the offensive rebounds even when they missed. That really helped the Paladins come up with this important road win.

What It All Means: The Bulldogs could not capitalize on the momentum from beating Wofford on Thursday night, losing to the Paladins at home. Ashton Moore was cold today, and when that has happened, the Bulldogs have lost this year. Moore has to be playing well. He may be the most important player in the SoCon to his team. He has to play well for them to win. They only turned the ball over six times and played decent offense, but the defense was not good again. At 3-4 in SoCon play, the Bulldogs are still in OK position for the SoCon bye race. But their next three games are all on the road- at ETSU, VMI and Chattanooga. The Bulldogs really need to get at least one on the road or risk falling pretty far out of the race. Furman is proving that they can win without Stephen Croone. He continues to not be scoring but doing a lot of other things. He scored just eleven points, but had four rebounds and five assists. The Paladins continue to look better than their record indicates. This club is 3-4 in SoCon play and tied with The Citadel after the win on Saturday. For once, Kris Acox and Kendrec Ferrara both played well at once. They came up with a combined 22 points and 17 rebounds. This team is tough to beat when they both are playing that well. Furman goes to Wofford next Thursday. That's going to be tough.

 Mercer 80, Samford 56

Player of the Game: Ike Nwamu scored 22 points on 6 of 11 shooting from the floor and 3 of 7 from three point range, along with 7 of 8 from the free throw line. He had four rebounds and two assists as well. Nwamu is one of the most athletic players in the conference. He can have games like this that he kind of takes over.

Stat of the Game: Mercer made 22 of 27 free throws, compared to Samford making 8 of 16. That is a huge disparity at the free throw line. In a game where Mercer dominated almost every statistical category, this was the one that really helped to ensure that they would win this game with ease.

What It All Means: For Samford, this was their worst game since the calendar turned to January. They are now 0-8 in SoCon play, and while more than likely an 8-10 record would be good enough to earn a bye, that would mean 8-2 the rest of the way for the Bulldogs, which seems very unlikely. This team only made 50% of their free throws today, got outrebounded by 13, made just 25% of their threes and only forced ten turnovers. They were behind almost immediately 17-2. There are pieces on this team, but they are a year or two from putting it together. They host UNCG, Western Carolina and Furman in their next three. The key is where their confidence is at this point. Much like The Citadel last year, one win might spiral into another two or three wins pretty quickly. Mercer is alone in first place in the SoCon, but also has played (according to Pomeroy) the easiest conference schedule so far. They have only played one game against one of the perceived Top Five teams, which they lost (albeit by one on the road). Four of their next five games are on the road, with the lone home game being against Chattanooga. Mercer used their size advantage, garnering more offensive rebounds than Samford collected defensive boards. They handled Samford's pressure and took the Bulldogs out of the game immediately with the early run. That's how you take care of a team like Samford on your home floor.

SoCon Previews- January 17

Game of the Day- Western Carolina at Wofford (7:00 PM)

What's the Story: The Catamounts are 3-3 in SoCon play and find themselves needing to get back on track. The schedules are still uneven, so falling below .500 at this point would not necessarily be an indicator about where they finished. But this is a chance for them. Wofford just fell at The Citadel and has been playing close games for weeks. Was that loss to the Bulldogs a wake up call? Or is this just who Wofford is this year- a team that plays ugly basketball but normally finds a way to win? If ever this team was going to play a complete game, you would think this would be it. If it isn't, the Catamounts have the talent to surprise them.
 
Match-up: I'm really interested to see Torrion Brummitt taking on Lee Skinner. Brummitt has really come on while Skinner has always been a special player. Their match-up should be very entertaining. James Sinclair and Karl Cochran are two of the better scorers in the league so those two will be fun to watch go at it as well. Western Carolina has a very productive offense, but Wofford has been playing slightly more efficiently in conference play.

Prediction: This is an interesting match-up between two of the top five teams in the SoCon. Of course, the game being at Wofford is going to be especially difficult for the Catamounts. The question really is if the Terriers show up as angry as you would think they would. You would expect them to come out fired up and playing their best basketball this month. If they don't, I'm not sure when they will. Bad timing for Western Carolina. Terriers 76, Catamounts 63.

ETSU at VMI (1:00 PM)

What's the Story: When, oh when, will VMI's offense start clicking? It's hard to know, but it has to happen eventually, right? At 2-5 in SoCon play, the Keydets need to get it going eventually, but it isn't at this point. They have been downright bad on offense in SoCon play. ETSU, on the other hand, has been very good. With a game at Wofford next Saturday, the Bucs have a chance to make a real SoCon statement. They just need to get there without slipping up again. If nothing else, these two teams play the fastest basketball in the conference, and should be an entertaining watch.

Match-up: Up and down. Up and down. Tim Marshall. QJ Peterson. Rashawn Rembert. Jalen Riley. Up and down. Up and down. These two teams will get back and forth a ton. With the way Rembert and Riley have been scoring, it will be interesting to see if Peterson and Marshall can shoot the ball well enough for the Keydets to win. Eventually, the shots will start falling again for the Keydets. The Bucs have not been a good defensive team, so this may be the night.

Prediction: The Keydets are going to make shots eventually. However, Riley and Rembert are going to put up big numbers. They both might score 30 points in this one. Those guys are so good. VMI at home will put up a fight, but ETSU is a much better team right now. Unless VMI shoots lights out, expect ETSU to win. Bucs 81, Keydets 73.

Furman at The Citadel (1:00 PM)

What's the Story: How does The Citadel bounce back after their biggest win in years? We'll find out on Saturday when they host Furman. The beauty of winning a big game is that it makes the next game even bigger. The Citadel is now 3-3 in SoCon play and has a chance to really start putting some space in between them and the rest of the teams chasing a bye. Furman is one of those teams. The Paladins are 2-4, but with a win, they would suddenly find themselves tied with The Citadel in the standings. This is going to be an interesting match-up of two teams looking to be known as the surprise of the conference this year.

Match-up: The new Stephen Croone is playing at a different level. He is distributing and rebounding, but he has been making fewer shots and scoring fewer points. Is his play going to help them come up with a win in this one? Or will he go back to his old shooter's mentality? You have to admit- watching him and Ashton Moore have a shootout would be a ton of fun. In fact, let's just do that and say the winner's team wins the game. Kris Acox will need to perform well because CJ Bray and PJ Horgan are a relatively tough inside match-up.

Prediction: The Paladins are a good enough team to win this. Really- how does The Citadel respond? There are new expectations and new excitement. How do they handle that? It's tough to know. They could lay an egg in this one. But I don't expect them to. After all, they are a slightly better club to begin with, probably. Moore continues to knock down big shots and lead the Bulldogs to the win. Bulldogs 66, Paladins 62.

Samford at Mercer (4:00 PM)

What's the Story: The Bulldogs have played the toughest schedule in SoCon play and Mercer has played the easiest. That won't change at all in this one. Samford is so close to coming up with a huge win, but just haven't been able to get it done. Maybe this is the time Samford gets it done. Mercer will be in the SoCon lead if they win this game. All it takes is one win over a winless SoCon team to be alone in first. That's about as easy as it could be for Mercer. With the way this Samford team has played, it might not be as easy as it sounds.

Match-up: Darius Jones-Gibson has turned into a top level player. Christen Cunningham has been performing very well at point guard, but looked awful against Chattanooga. Mercer has been good on defense, but has been even better (and more balanced) on offense in recent weeks. Darious Moten, Ike Nwamu and Phillip Leonard are all playing well. In the mean time, Jibri Bryan, TJ Hallice and Jordan Strawberry are all doing their part too. This team is balanced and an interesting one to watch. Samford's pressure defense can cause problems for teams, but Mercer is not turnover-prone generally. Avoiding the turnovers will be key in this one.

Prediction: The Bulldogs just haven't put it all together yet. It seems highly unlikely that they put it together at Mercer, a very difficult place to play. The Bears are a good team, especially at home. Mercer could certainly come out flat, but they should be able to pull away in this one and come up with a relatively easy win. Bears 71, Bulldogs 60.

SoCon Reviews- January 14 & 15

ETSU 83, Western Carolina 76

Player of the Game: Jalen Riley came off the bench and poured in 31 points on 10 of 16 shooting from the floor. Riley continues to combine with Rembert to be the most lethal scoring combo of guards in the whole conference. They scored 52 of the team's 83 points tonight. Really unbelievable how this happens night after night.

Stat of the Game: The Bucs made 26 of 38 from the free throw line. That was ten more free throws than the Catamounts and made seven more, which was the point differential. ETSU made enough free throws to get through this one.

What It All Means: For Western Carolina, it is becoming more and more clear that this team is just a half step behind the top teams in the SoCon. They have lost twice to ETSU now and once to Chattanooga by an averaged of 6.7 points per game. Even with James Sinclair, this team has it's flaws. They are not a great defensive team, and do not have the inside presence to rely on being the consistently great offensive team they need to be. Torrion Brummitt continues to show his improvement, though. He had 14 points and 14 rebounds in this one. The Catamouns need to come up with one huge win against one of the SoCon big boys. The game at Wofford and at home against Mercer in their next two give them an opportunity. ETSU finds themselves in decent position. They continue to keep up with their opponents on the glass despite their size deficiencies. This team is an interesting collection. Rembert and Riley have proven to be magnificent scorers and McClain continues to guide the offense effectively. This team really understands their roles and executes them beautifully. At 5-2, they find themselves right in the thick of the SoCon race. They need to win at dangerous VMI on Saturday to keep in that position. A game at Wofford looms next Saturday.

UNCG 75, VMI 63

Player of the Game: Kayel Locke scored 19 points and had eight rebounds. He made 9 of 16 from the floor. The Spartans dominated with their big men and Locke was the top performer. He is a match-up problem for a lot of SoCon teams. He should play like this more often.

Stat of the Game: VMI made 9 of 40 from three point range. They continue to really struggle offensively. This team is so high octane and offensive focused that when they struggle on that end of the court, they are really going to struggle. They rank last in the conference in two point percentage shooting and three point percentage shooting. Yikes. That's not good. They absolutely must start making a higher percentage of their shots.

What It All Means: The Keydets, a popular choice to receive the sixth bye in the SoCon Tournament, is only 2-5 in conference play and are starting to find trouble for themselves. If they do not start making more shots, they will fall even further. This team is not built to win games with scores in the 60s. They simply can't do it. Yet, in recent weeks, they have shot so poorly that is what is expected of them. Eventually, they will warm up, and you probably don't want to be playing them when that happens. UNCG desperately needed a win, and they got it. Amazingly, they moved within just one game of the final bye. Yes, it is early to be thinking about that, but it's never too early to think about it a little. The Spartans have very talented inside players that should be able to dominate a lot of SoCon games. That's what they did in this one. On top of that Diante Baldwin played well. With Tevon Saddler out, this team is learning how to play without him. That can only benefit them in the long run.

The Citadel 69, Wofford 66

Player of the Game: Ashton Moore scored 29 points on 10 of 17 shooting from the floor and 6 of 10 shooting from three point range. He had four rebounds, four assists and one steal. Moore has turned into one of the better guards in the league. He has been playing excellent basketball and was the main reason the Bulldogs were able to pull off the upset.

Stat of the Game: The Citadel shot lights out the whole night, but made 9 of 14 from three point range. Jake Wright and Quinton Marshall went along with Moore in the excellent long range shooting that helped the Bulldogs come up with big shot after big shot down the stretch to pull out the win.

What It All Means: For the Terriers, this game probably ends their legitimate chance at an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament. This loss will be an anchor to their RPI and their overall resume from this point forward. They have been playing with fire the whole SoCon schedule and they finally got burned. They will eventually put things together and are still the favorite to win the conference, but the concerns that I've been expressing about their play in recent week is now  more than just concerns. They need to get it together, or they risk not even winning the regular season conference title. Karl Cochran finally couldn't bail them out late. The Citadel proved that the turnaround that has been going on in conference play is legitimate. This team is a contender to get a bye in the SoCon Tournament, something that seemed unlikely just a little over a week ago. The team is a good offensive team with some major defensive deficiencies that they cover up by slowing down the game. This team executes at a higher level than most Bulldog teams in the past. They have good guards, and their bigs are better than most other SoCon schools have.

Mercer 67, Furman 64

Player of the Game: Darious Moten had 16 points on a perfect 6 of 6 from the floor. He had five rebounds, two steals, one assist and one block to go along with that. He played a nearly perfect game. He's averaging 15.7 points per game in SoCon play and just 8.0 points per game out of conference.

Stat of the Game: It's tough to identify because of the Bears dominating performance on the glass, but I'll go with the 65.9 eFG%. The Bears shot the ball so effectively, the virtually eliminated Furman's chances of winning. It's hard to win when the other team does not miss a shot. They did not miss much in this one.

What It All Means: The Paladins put up a valiant fight, but came up short. There is something interesting starting to transpire though. Stephen Croone is doing well on rebounds and assists since Christmas Break, but his game is changing a bit. Last year, he averaged 19.0 points per game. He was averaging 18.9 points per game prior to Christmas. Since then, he is down to 13.7 points per game. Prior to Christmas Break, he only had one game where did not take double digit shots. Since Christmas, this game was the first one with double digit shots. As his game adjusts, the team is slowly getting better. The other Paladins are stepping up their games. They are 2-4 in the SoCon, but have lost road games to Mercer, Chattanooga and Western Carolina, road contests that no bottom half of the conference team will be expected to win. They go to The Citadel on Saturday in a huge battle for positioning in the bye race. Mercer has slowly developed into a better offensive team than they appeared to be earlier in out of conference play, but their defense has suffered in recent games. They still rank as the second best team in conference games in Defensive Efficiency per KenPom, but they allowed Furman to shoot over 50% from the floor. That is two straight games that their opponent has shot that well. They are tied with Chattanooga for the SoCon lead at the moment. All it takes is beating Samford on Saturday at home and the Bears will be in first by themselves in the conference. However, they have also played the easiest schedule of any team in the conference at this point, which is not going to change when they take on winless Samford. The schedule will toughen up and that we will know about the Bears then.

Chattanooga 82, Samford 76

Player of the Game: Justin Tuoyo scored 14 points with 11 rebounds four assists and three blocks. Samford came up with seven offensive rebounds as a team. Tuoyo came up with eight by himself. As has been said before, Tuoyo is a difficult match-up for almost any SoCon team. He continues to create problems for those teams. He is great.

Stat of the Game: Mocs had 40% OR while Samford had just a 24.1%. All those extra possessions gave the Mocs ability to stay in the game when they were struggling early and pull away towards the end of the game. The conference average is 33.5%, so the Mocs were above average and Samford was below average. Tuoyo out offensive rebounded the Bulldogs himself. Even without Tuoyo, the Mocs came up with six offensive boards and Samford just one more at seven.

What It All Means: Samford remains the best winless team in conference play in recent memory. This team has played in a world of tough games, playing ETSU, Chattanooga and Wofford twice. That's four very difficult SoCon games so far, and they played at The Citadel and at Furman. They hosted VMI and lost by 22 in December, which is by far their worst conference performance. The Bulldogs led by ten in this one in the first half, but could not deliver the knock out blow. Darius Jones-Gibson scored 24 and was brilliant. Christen Cunningham was not up to the task in this one as a freshman point guard. He was going to be interesting to watch how he matched up in this one, but it was no match, as he scored two points, had one rebound, no assists and four turnovers in 27 minutes. The Mocs are tied for the SoCon lead with Mercer all of the sudden. The Mocs did not shoot threes well, and they turned the ball over fifteen turnovers. But they survived, and that was all that mattered on this night. Greg Pryor returned from his injury and played solidly. He only played twenty minutes, had two assists and one turnover. Not bad. Tuoyo helped cover up a lot of the deficiencies and the team came up with an important win. They have off Saturday before hosting VMI and UNCG next week. The game at Mercer in two weeks is starting to loom.

SoCon Previews- January 14 & 15

Game of the Day- ETSU at Western Carolina (7:00 Thursday)

What Does It Mean: With James Sinclair not out, the Catamounts are a real threat to contend in the SoCon. While it is most people's opinion (and every single voter in Scanning the SoCon) that Western Carolina is the fifth best team in the SoCon, with Sinclair, they have the ability to win games that they are not expected to. At 3-2 in SoCon play, the Catamounts have a chance to make a statement about where they fit in the SoCon race. With ETSU at 4-2, the Catamounts can jump ahead of the Bucs. The Bucs are looking to re-establish themselves and get back into the race with Mercer and Chattanooga for second. The Bucs own the current tiebreaker with the Bears, but not with the Mocs after last week's games. A loss here would not be devastating to the Bucs chances of catching up (obviously), but it does start to make the path more difficult.

Match-up: The Catamounts are known for their guard play, behind James Sinclair and Rhett Harrelson and even Mike Brown (the reigning SoCon Player of the Week). But they have Torrion Brummitt, who has often gone underappreciated (especially by me). ETSU has very little outside of guard play. Petey McClain is a solid presence at point guard. Rashawn Rembert and Jalen Riley are the scorers. The Bucs do not have a lot of size, but they make up for it with effort. They outrebounded the much bigger Mercer and Chattanooga teams last week. If the Bucs are outrebounded by the Catamounts and Brummitt has a big game, that will make it much more difficult for ETSU to win this game, obviously.

Prediction: The Catamounts have shot the ball so well at home recently. Can they have another hot shooting night? Can Brummitt dominate in the paint? It is going to be difficult to outscore Rembert and Riley, but Harrelson and Sinclair will do their best. The Catamounts are prepared to pull off this upset. They will be rejuvenated by Sinclair's return and pull off the mild upset in this one. Western Carolina 77, ETSU 75.

VMI at UNCG (7:00 Wednesday)

What Does It Mean: UNCG is 1-4 in SoCon play and likely to be without Tevon Saddler. The Spartans are heading in the wrong direction, but are only one game out of the six seed in the SoCon race. A win here would be huge for the Spartans confidence as they try to get back into that position. VMI is 2-4 after winning on the road at Furman on Saturday. The Keydets are only one half game out of the six spot in the SoCon. The team that wins here will get themselves into position to contend for the final bye. If UNCG loses, they will be in major trouble for the bye. A VMI loss wouldn't be quite as bad for the Keydets, but it would still be damaging.

Match-up: QJ Peterson has been struggling for the Keydets from the floor. He has made 8 threes in 38 attempts in the last four SoCon games. With how the Spartans defense has been playing, will this be the game that Peterson goes off? Tim Marshall has been playing pretty well lately and is the Keydets second leading scorer. The most important player in this game for the Spartans? Diante Baldwin. Without Tevon Saddler, this is a game where all the guard play that can be found needs to be found. Baldwin is a decent ball handler and a good shooter. He is going to have to have a huge game against this Keydets defense.

Prediction: Truthfully, this is a good match-up for the Spartans at full strength. VMI kind of makes or misses shots almost regardless of the opponent, and the Spartans defense is their weakness. Their defense doesn't matter in this one. The problem is that without Saddler, it is hard to figure out how they win this one. In the end, VMI will beat UNCG without Saddler. If Saddler was playing, UNCG would win. VMI 88, UNCG 81.

Wofford at The Citadel (6:00 Thursday)

What Does It Mean: This is it. This is the opportunity for The Citadel to get into the bye race. The Bulldogs are 2-3 in SoCon play and could pull off a major upset at home against the Terriers. This is the moment that The Citadel program has been waiting for. Can they take advantage? This Bulldogs team has looked decent all year, and Wofford has struggled with everyone before winning. Could an upset happen here? The Terriers have to keep on wining if they want any shot at an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Of course, never forget that they are just up one half game on Chattanooga and Mercer for first in the SoCon. Things could get interesting quickly.

Match-up: The Terriers have been playing with a hampered Eric Garcia and a sick Lee Skinner. That has lead to some of their problems putting teams away early in conference play. Still, with Karl Cochran lighting it up and Spencer Collins starting to shoot a little better, this Terriers team is a tough match-up. But Skinner needs to be prepared to deal with PJ Horgan and Brian White. The inside game of the Bulldogs is actually pretty good. Ashton Moore is the Bulldogs biggest scorer. The Bulldogs defense is the worst in the SoCon, but they slow the game down. Wofford likes to play ugly and slow the game down too. Expect a slow paced contest.

Prediction: Wofford wins ugly, but The Citadel's defense does not match-up well with the Terriers. The Terriers are an offense that will take what you give them, and the Bulldogs give up a lot. This game will be close and a low scoring, low possession slugfest. But The Citadel is not ready to win this kind of game, even if it does shape up as their best opportunity in recent memory to score a truly significant home win. Wofford 62, The Citadel 55.

Furman at Mercer (7:00 Thursday)

What Does It Mean: The Paladins are currently in a tie for the sixth position in the SoCon race. They are 0-2 on the road and 2-1 at home in SoCon play. This is a very difficult road game for them. A win here would establish themselves as the team to beat in the race for sixth in the SoCon. The Bears are just one half game out of first and are tied with Chattanooga for second. Mercer is 6-1 at home on the season. They need this home game to stay on track in the SoCon race.

Match-up: These two may spend some time on each other or they may not, but there are few games featuring two players like Ike Nwamu and Stephen Croone. Nwamu is the sort of player that can make a highlight reel play at any moment. Croone is a player that can get red hot and simply not miss shots for stretches. That should be worth the price of admission right there. TJ Hallice against either Kris Acox or Kendrec Ferrara (whoever is playing better, because that seems to be how they determine who plays) will also be a critical match-up.

Prediction: Furman has played OK at times in SoCon play, but let's face it- they are not going to go on the road and beat Mercer. The Bears are, quite frankly, the better team and are a very good home team. Furman let's teams shoot the ball very well, and Mercer's defense is very good. Furman will fall behind quickly by double digits and get stuck being behind by about that much for the rest of the game, never really making a move, but never falling completely out of it either. Mercer 72, Furman 60.

Chattanooga at Samford (8:00 Thursday)

What Does It Mean: The Bulldogs are 0-6 in SoCon play. They have played ETSU and Wofford within five combined points at home. Samford goes to Mercer after this and suddenly, the Bulldogs could be 0-8. This is a near must win game for Samford. The Mocs are a half game behind Wofford for first in the SoCon and tied with Mercer for second. The Mocs are coming off an emotional road win at ETSU. If they survive this, they will get to play two games at home against UNCG and VMI next week with a 5-1 SoCon record. Yes, the Mocs can go on a winning streak here, but this game is far from the lay up it would appear to be based on Samford's record.

Match-up: Samford has a great young point guard in Christen Cunningham. The Mocs have Greg Pryor, if he's healthy. He's only a sophomore. Assuming everything goes as planned, this is the first of at least six match-ups between these two over the next three years. This should be a lot of fun in the coming years. Samford's Darius Jones-Gibson has scored at least 15 points in every game in January, and no less than 13 in any of his six SoCon games. Michael Bradley is 6-10 and one of the few players in the SoCon that can match up with Justin Tuoyo inch for inch. Still, Tuoyo is talented and should still present match-up problems with Bradley.

Prediction: The Mocs are the better team, but Samford has been so close to pulling off a SoCon upset. Cunningham against Pryor is a deeply intriguing match-up. The Mocs better come ready to play or else they will not survive this trip. Casey Jones and Rico White should be rejuvenated after having four days off and, if he is healthy, Pryor is a huge asset to this offense. The up and down style of Samford could be interesting for Chattanooga to deal with, even if that is also a style the Mocs prefer at times. Chattanooga 68, Samford 65.

Scanning the SoCon 2015- Week One

After a hiatus from my blog (when DashSpartan was kind of to take over and post over on PalmettoandPineSports.com), Scanning the SoCon is back with the very first edition of the SoCon conference portion of the schedule. This should continue every week leading into the SoCon Tournament. Be sure to check it out.

SCHEDULE

Wednesday

VMI at UNCG (SoConDigitalNetwork)

Thursday

Wofford at The Citadel (SoCon Digital Network)

ETSU at Western Carolina (SoCon Digital Network)

Furman at Mercer (ESPN3)

Chattanooga at Samford (SoConDigitalNetwork)

 

Saturday

ETSU at VMI (SoConDigitalNetwork)

Furman at The Citadel (SoConDigitalNetwork)

Samford at Mercer (ESPN3)

Western Carolina at Wofford (SoConDigitalNetwork)

POWER RANKINGS

1)      Wofford- 80 points (8 votes)

2)      Chattanooga- 70.5

3)      ETSU- 62

4)      Mercer- 59.5

5)      Western Carolina- 48

6)      VMI- 35

7)      The Citadel- 30

8)      Furman- 28

9)      UNCG- 15

10)  Samford- 12

PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Karl Cochran, Wofford- 4 votes

Others Receiving Votes- Casey Jones (Chattanooga)- 2 votes, QJ Peterson (VMI)- 1, Mike Brown (Western Carolina)- 1

GAME OF THE WEEK

ETSU at Western Carolina- 3.5 votes

Others Receiving Votes- Western Carolina at Wofford- 1 vote, Furman at Mercer- 1, ETSU at VMI- 1, Wofford at The Citadel- 1, Furman at The Citadel- .5

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team.

Chattanooga- The Mocs played three teams that are a combined 11-4 in SoCon play this week and went 2-1 in those games, and really, in a lot of ways, the Mocs should have gone 3-0, because they were ahead by 14 in the second half against Wofford on Monday night. While Monday night’s loss was very disappointing, Saturday’s overtime win over ETSU was equally electrifying. The Mocs led for much of that game, but nearly blew it at the end. Justin Tuoyo needs to do a better job against double teams, but Casey Jones is a tremendous asset. Greg Pryor is the player that controls the offense. The last two games, Pryor has been injured, and the offense has not looked quite right in those games. If Pryor comes back this week, like expected, there should be a major jump in offensive productivity.

Furman- --Had a bit of a tough run this week with losses at UTC and WCU, but then again, those are two of tougher places to play in the league...Furman responded very nicely on Thursday with a come-from-behind win over UNCG and while Stephen Croone didn't score but 10 points, he in so valuable from what he does defensively and overall hustle...His three with 4:09 to play was the clincher...And Devin Sibley's 21 points--all in the second half--were impressive....He's going to be a good one...In many ways, this Furman team is the carbon copy of Wofford two years ago...Croone is Cochran and Sibley is Furman's Collins...Don't know if it will end up the way it has for Wofford, but certainly the type skill-set each in the starting five for both are comparable I think...Huge game coming up against VMI...Furman is continuing to gain confidence, but has to learn to win on the road!

VMI- Overall it was a disappointing week for VMI, but luckily we ended on a very positive note. In our first SoCon home game since returning to the league, the Mercer Bears whipped us in the second half after a mostly even first period. Four of Mercer's five starters scored in double figures, including Phillip Leonard, who had 21 points, and Darious Moten, who netted another 21 and grabbed six rebounds. QJ Peterson had 31 points in the loss. The team then traveled to Spartanburg for a matchup with the now-sluggish Wofford Terriers, who haven't found their scoring touch. Despite holding a two-point lead with under two minutes to go, Wofford made the plays it takes to win and escaped with a 75-70 victory in which neither team lead by more than 7 points. Free throw shooting killed the Keydets down the stretch, and overall the three-point shooting was the deciding factor: 4 of 22, 18%. Phillip Anglade had a career night, shooting 11 of 13 for 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 blocks. Despite the heartbreaking loss, the Keydets rebounded on Saturday for a 83-73 win over Furman. Julian Eleby had 11 points off the bench, and Tim Marshall netted 18 on 4 of 8 shooting from beyond the arc. It was a much needed win for the Keydets who are nearly done with their road-heavy early league schedule.

Western Carolina- The Cats won two, lost one.  The Cats easily handled both Furman and UNCG at home, but was not so lucky against Chattanooga, losing to the Mocs by 6 points, in a place that seems to be winnable for the Catamounts.  The Cats have an even tougher road this week with ETSU and Wofford on the schedule.

What one player is most indispensable to his team?

Chattanooga- With James Sinclair out for the year and with Tevon Saddler sitting out due to injury for a while, not to mention Greg Pryor being out, and Eric Garcia and Lee Skinner being limited due to injury and illness, this question seems particularly pertinent. That being said, it is probably Stephen Croone for Furman. If Croone got injured, the Paladins would lack any consistent offensive weapons. Yes, Geoff Beans, Kris Acox and Kendrec Ferrara all can perform, but all have been wildly inconsistent. That makes Croone all the more valuable.

Furman- Though Furman survived without him for a while Thursday night in foul trouble, it is apparent to me, that Furman wouldn't have won that game last night if it weren't for Croone diving on the floor to get loose balls, or running down Saddler from behind getting a steal and passing up the floor to Daniel Fowler for a layup....He's just indispensable...He gives so much heart and kind of reminds me of Allen Iverson in that respect.

VMI- VMI is a bit of an oddity this year. We haven't had one go-to contributor that's been there every night, and for that reason we are 6-11. A lack of leadership has also hurt, as well as the lack of a true point guard. But the most indispensable player on our squad has to be none other than QJ Peterson, and it should be pretty obvious as to why. Thus far QJ is averaging 20.2 PPG, slightly over 5 RPG and 4.1 APG. He also became the fastest player in VMI history to score 1,000 points, and if he continues his current pace he will score over 2,400 points. A makeshift one-guard, QJ has stepped up to the challenge of switching roles late in the offseason and for that he should be admired. The play of other players has simply been too inconsistent or nonexistent to surpass QJ's scoring excellence.

Western Carolina- James Sinclair.  Guess what, we lost him.  It's a disaster to lose one of your two seniors, your leading scorer, averaging 17+ points per game.  Guess we'll see what happens when a team loses it's mot Indispensable player.

The Terriers have an RPI of 32 per RPIForecast.com. Can they earn an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament?

Chattanooga- The Terriers can probably afford just a loss in one of two places prior to the SoCon Championship Game to have any chance at all of getting an at large bid. That loss would have to come at Mercer or at ETSU. I do not think they can afford a loss at home, and no other team in the conference is good enough for the Terriers to lose to on the road and survive. But I do think if Wofford loses once and then in the SoCon Championship Game, they would be 28-6, and have a very real chance at an at large. In fact, I ran RPI Wizard on RPIForecast.com and predicted a win against everyone but a loss to Mercer on the road and then beating Samford and ETSU in the SoCon Tournament before falling to either Mercer or Chattanooga in the title game. The RPI result predicts an RPI of 40. If that is accurate, they will be square on the bubble, but fall on the wrong side. If they win out until the SoCon Championship Game and come up short, I think they will be on the bubble, but quite possibly on the right side of that bubble.

Furman- Wofford has an impressive RPI due to their incredibly tough non-conference play, unfortunately, it will drop when playing some of the lower-tier SoCon teams...Still, it is a very real possibility the Terriers could get an at-large, but I have seen some good Davidson teams denied by the NCAA Tournament, namely the 1996 team which lost in the title to WCU, denied acceptance into the NCAA Tournament...I think they were a Top 40 RPI team that season....So hopefully the league has garnered a little more respect in the past two decades should Wofford finish in the 40-50 RPI range and not win the SoCon Tournament

The Citadel- I don't think Wofford can get an at-large bid. Once it plays the full SoCon schedule, Wofford's RPI will probably drop into the 60-80 range even if it were to run the table. The Terriers will likely finish with just one Top-100 victory (possibly two, depending on how Iona finishes the season). Playing two non-D1 opponents won't help Wofford much either.

VMI- This is a tricky question. First, if the season ended right now and there were no SoCon Tournament, you'd definitely have to give Wofford an at-large bid. According to WarrenNolan.com, the Terriers currently have an RPI ranked 30th in the country, better than the likes of Georgetown, Michigan State, and Notre Dame. But even if the Terriers keep up their winning ways, their RPI and strength of schedule (which is currently 95th in the nation) would inevitable take a massive hit. There are simply too many bottom-tier teams in this league for the RPI to stay at such absurd levels. Wofford has played two ranked teams in West Va. and Duke, but by tournament time their SOS should even out, playing UNCG, The Citadel, and Furman twice. If they do win out (which would also have to include two SoCon victories and a championship game loss, as the scenario suggests), they would have a record of 29-5. Impressive, but how much of a hit will their SOS take, thereby negatively effecting RPI? I would say it would be too much of a hit to keep the Terriers within the top-60 RPI range, far too high for a mid-major looking for an at-large bid.

Western Carolina- No, the SoCon is still a one bid league, with the RPI in the middle 20s. By the end of the season, even if the Terriers win out, their RPI will be much different than it is today.

Wofford- This question came up in a conversation I was having prior to the Terriers' league opener. As a Wofford fan, I wouldn't be too optimistic about this prospect--it's a matter of what happens the rest of the way. If the Terriers were to continue their current habit of showing up late and pulling off a victory, they have some chance of finishing the conference schedule undefeated. (Still unlikely, but you can't predict SoCon basketball.) That would put them at 27-4, a mark largely unheard of over here. Then, let's say they cruise to the final in Asheville, and are stunned there by a couple points. Of course, I would be indignant at such a prospect, but I'm not a member of the selection committee. Other than the league work, we have a couple of good non-conference wins (Iona, N.C. State), but I'm not sure if it's enough for these guys. It would all depend on the committee's mindset. Sure, there's a chance, but I wouldn't put my money on it. I hope the Terriers just keep their focus on the next game and keep going.

What has been the most surprising result so far in the SoCon?

Chattanooga- When UNCG beat ETSU in Johnson City, that definitely sent shockwaves around the conference. The Spartans were not expected to be contenders in the SoCon and ETSU was, so for them to go on the road and win was stunning. It called into question if ETSU could contend in the SoCon this year, while it also made everyone wonder if with Diante Baldwin back from injury, UNCG was a true title contender. As it has played out, the answers are that ETSU is a contender and UNCG is not. The Spartans played over their head in that game and came up with the upset. That result was stunning at the time. Amazingly, it is even more shocking in retrospect.

Furman- The Citadel is playing like coach Chuck Driesell's job depends on it and it might...Ashton Moore has been incredible so far, and it's good to see the Bulldogs in the middle of the SoCon pack right now. The Bulldogs should really have beaten cross-town rival CofC earlier this season!...I think one of the most surprising results in the league were UNCG over ETSU 80-79 and The Citadel's win at UNCG

VMI- I think the play of UNC Greensboro has been a surprising disappointment. This is a team with three potential All-SoCon First and Second Team players in Tevon Saddler, RJ White, and Kayel Locke that has laid an egg so far this season. The offense has been mediocre, surprising given that they have five players averaging double-figures. It's their defense that has been so bad, giving up 73.8 PPG (329th in the country) and have gotten only 21.6 rebounds per contest (308th). With Saddler and White leading the team I thought they would contend for a top-five spot, but their bad bench has hindered them. It's never too late to see them turn it around though.

SoCon Reviews- 1/10/15

Chattanooga 74, ETSU 71 (OT)

Player of the Game: Casey Jones. Hard to go anywhere else considering what happened at the end. Jones not only knocked down the game winning three with one second left, but he also came up with the offensive rebound with nineteen seconds left that gave the Mocs the final possession. He only scored nine, but came up with eleven rebounds, including six offensive boards. What a huge finish from the Mocs best player.

Stat of the Game: ETSU made 9 of 20 from the free throw line. This is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the SoCon, and they made just 45% of their free throws in this one. That was a major contributing factor that the Mocs were able to get the game to overtime and wind up winning. The Bucs need to make more free throws in the future if they want to not get into situations like that.

What It All Means: The Bucs lost a heartbreaker at home and thus proved that they are probably just a nose behind Chattanooga overall at this point. The Mocs were without the starting point guard, Greg Pryor, and still managed to win the game on the road. The Bucs managed to outrebound the bigger Mocs and also to shoot a higher percentage. But they could not come up with the win because of those free throws. Lester Wilson stepped up in a big way, and Petey McClain knocked down his first three threes of the year. As evidenced by the games this week in Johnson City, Chattanooga, ETSU and Mercer are all REALLY closely bunched. The Bucs go to Western Carolina and VMI this week. The Mocs, on the other hand, shot too many threes, Justin Tuoyo showed that he is not sure how to handle a double team, and Rico White could not find a way to knock down a shot in the second half. Still, Eric Robertson came up with twenty and Martynas Bareika came up with 13. This Mocs team needs Pryor to be a great offensive team, but they have been playing lock down defense in SoCon play, ranking first in Defensive Efficiency according to Pomeroy in conference games. The Mocs have just one game this week- at a Samford team that played ETSU and Wofford very close in the last week at their gym.

Mercer 74, The Citadel 51

Player of the Game:  Ike Nwamu. It was nice to see Nwamu contributing big plays again, as he has been kind of quiet lately. He came up with 15 points to lead the Bears. Nwamu makes plays happen on the offensive side and when he is going, the Bears are much tougher to beat.

Stat of the Game: Mercer committed just three turnovers. It is almost impossible to go through practice with no defensive players and commit just three turnovers. The Bears went through an entire forty minute game against The Citadel committing just three. That is incredibly impressive. The Bulldogs have a hard enough time slowing down other offenses when they make a normal amount of mistakes. When they don't make any, it really is impossible to slow down the any offense. The Bears were near flawless.

What It All Means: The Citadel is just not a good defensive team. We've seen it time and again. They allowed Mercer to corral over 44% of the offensive rebounds, only forced the three turnovers and allowed Mercer to shoot almost 52% from the floor. That's just not good defense. Ashton Moore scored just five points and committed seven turnovers. The Bulldogs had over 50 OR% against Samford on Thursday. On Saturday, just 22.7%. The Bulldogs are not ready yet to go on the road and win a game against a high quality opponent, like Mercer is. They get Wofford and Furman at home this week. Are they ready to take out a high quality opponent like the Terriers at home? Doubtful. Mercer did not play particularly good defense, though they completely took Moore out of the game. But The Citadel still shot 50% from the floor. But the Bears did all the little things in this game. They hit the glass on the offensive end. They did not commit turnovers. They made the Bulldogs be one and done on the offensive end. That's how you slowly destroy a basketball team's confidence. Easy enough to see. The Bears also got Ike Nwamu involved in the offense. He lead the team with 15 points on 6 of 11 shooting. Phillip Leonard had eight assists. This Bears team is very good and will be in a dogfight for second in the SoCon the whole way with ETSU and Chattanooga. They host Furman and Samford this week.

VMI 83, Furman 73

Player of the Game: Tim Marshall. Marshall scored 12 points and had four rebounds. He made 4 of 8 from long range. The Keydets have really been struggling shooting the ball and they needed someone to knock down a few threes. Marshall gave them that consistency on Saturday, and that was a major reason they were able to beat Furman.

Stat of the Game: Keydets 12 of 32 (37.5%) from three point range. During the recent three game losing streak, VMI did not make more than 34.3% of their threes and had made just 26.5% of their threes. Making just a little bit better percentage from three tonight made all the difference in their offensive output and efficiency tonight.

What It All Means: The Paladins were not ready for this match-up. They committed too many turnovers (17), only came up with a few offensive rebounds (5), and let VMI shoot better than they have recently. In a game with as many possessions as you have against VMI, you can not only come up with five offensive rebounds unless you are shooting lights out. Furman was not. Stephen Croone looked like himself again, scoring 21 points, but Kendrec Ferrara continues to regress. He scored just two points. Kris Acox did score 14 points with nine rebounds. Going to Mercer, The Citadel and Wofford in their next three games is going to be a brutal stretch. VMI won relatively handily on the road in a game that they had to win. They could not afford to drop to 1-5 in SoCon play. This was a must win and they came up with it. They only turned the ball over ten times and QJ Peterson wound up with 18 points. They forced those turnovers and did enough to win. This is still the team most likely from the "Bottom Five" to get a bye, I believe, and they played like it today. They go to UNCG and host ETSU this week. It's another set of important games.

Western Carolina 82, UNCG 72

Player of the Game: Mike Brown had a career high 27 points to go along with seven rebounds and four assists. He made 8 of 12 from the floor and 9 of 14 from the free throw line. With James Sinclair declared academically ineligible and being out the rest of the year, players like Brown are now key contributors and he put it together in a big way.

Stat of the Game: Western Carolina 59.6 eFG%. The Catamounts were blazing hot shooting from the floor. Of course, the Spartans defense should be used to that by now. It always seems to happen to them. Western Carolina needed that kind of shooting day to put away the Spartans on Saturday and they got exactly what they needed, knocking down 10 of 19 from three point range.

What It All Means: UNCG made just 35% of their shots on Saturday. That's not good. Without Tevon Saddler, the Spartans need to come up with someone else that can make a big shot. RJ White and Kayel Locke really stepped up, scoring 41 points. They combined for 16 of 22 from the free throw line. Diante Baldwin had 14 points with five rebounds and eight assists. Until Saddler is back and healthy (he is listed as day-to-day), the Spartans are going to struggle. This team is incomplete. They host VMI on Wednesday and have Saturday off this week. At 1-4 in SoCon play, this team is in real trouble right now. For the Catamounts, without James Sinclair, this is their new reality. They need Mike Brown, Rhett Harrelson and Torrion Brummitt to score in bunches. This is who they are now. Not that that is a bad thing. This club still is a team that can win games in the SoCon and certainly can get a bye. But these next three games are as tough as any in the SoCon. They host ETSU, go to Wofford and come home for Mercer. That's rough. At 3-2 in SoCon play, the Catamounts can make a huge statement in those games about where they fit into the SoCon race.

Wofford 72, Samford 62

Player of the Game: Karl Cochran scored 17 points on 6 of 12 shooting from the floor and 5 of 10 shooting from long range, and added seven rebounds and three assists. Cochran continues to be the Terriers best overall player and one of the best players in the SoCon.

Stat of the Game: Cochran and Spencer Collins combined to have a 68.2 eFG%. That's tough to beat. I've always said when those two shoot well, the Terriers are close to unbeatable. Collins has been struggling, but played very well Saturday. That was why Wofford was able to withstand Samford's push in the end.

What It All Means: Samford is the puzzle that keeps on being puzzling. They are now 0-6 in SoCon play, but have played Wofford very close twice in the last week. This team seems like it is close to putting something together, but have just not won one yet. The Bulldogs are not bad, with Christen Cunningham and Darius Jones-Gibson are good SoCon players. This week, they host Chattanooga and go to Mercer. The Bulldogs will have a chance to beat the Mocs at home for sure if they do not come ready to play. Wofford continues to be a puzzle too. They have not lost a SoCon game this year and sit at 4-0. But they have not dominated any of the teams they have played. In fact, they have looked downright bad at times. When are the Terriers going to start playing like the SoCon favorite and the possible NCAA at-large team that they are? They go to The Citadel and host Western Carolina this week. Wofford wins ugly, but I keep on waiting for them to look like the team so many people think they are.

SoCon Previews- 1/10/15

For this early in the season, Saturday has some really intriguing conference games this afternoon. After all, with the way The Citadel is playing and Western Carolina and Furman all tied at 2-2 in SoCon action, Saturday's games will go a long way to starting to narrow down the field a bit. VMI and Western Carolina are the popular choices to receive those last two byes, but the Keydets are just 1-4 in SoCon play and really need to come up with a win.

That means that with Furman hosting VMI we have one absolutely critical game for both squads. It means that The Citadel has a chance to make some real noise by going into Mercer and shocking the Bears. It means that Western Carolina is in a virtual must win against a team they should beat at home in UNCG. On top of that, Wofford plays Samford for the second time in a week, and Chattanooga goes to ETSU in a rivalry renewal that will start to sort out the top of the conference.

All in all, January games don't always mean the most, and I'm sure most of these games will be mostly forgotten by the end of the year. But the standings are being defined and refined at this point. This set of games will continue to help separating the teams and figuring out where teams fit in the conference race.

Game of the Day- Chattanooga at ETSU (4:00)

What Does It Mean: The Mocs and the Bucs renew an old SoCon rivalry that really matters. The Mocs are 3-1 in SoCon play while ETSU is 4-1. A win for Chattanooga would be a huge road win that would establish itself as the second best SoCon team behind Wofford. A win for ETSU would give them an early league up on Mercer and Chattanooga for the second seed in the SoCon team, since they would have beaten both in consecutive games on their home floor. This rivalry has always been intense and meant something. It's about to get nasty again.

Match-up: It is a question for every SoCon team- how are they going to match up with Justin Tuoyo and keep him from blocking nine shots and scoring in double digits? It may be a bigger question for the Bucs. They are such a small team, they could really struggle with Tuoyo's size. Then again, the Bucs outrebounded a much bigger Mercer team on Thursday. They may be able to do it again. It is very difficult to guard Rashawn Rembert and Jalen Riley- the best guard combo in the SoCon. The Mocs will be without Greg Pryor again, creating more problems at guard for the Mocs. Casey Jones may need to have a huge game for the Mocs to come up with the road upset.

Prediction: The Mocs have the advantage in size. How much can they take advantage of that? The Bucs can get so red hot shooting from outside. It may be a reminder to the Mocs of how Karl Cochran went off on Monday night. Riley may go off in that way. In Johnson City, the Bucs guard advantage (with Pryor out) will be the major difference. ETSU will come up with a close hard fought, relatively high scoring win. Bucs 78, Mocs 74.

The Citadel at Mercer (4:00, ESPN3)

What Does It Mean: The Bulldogs are 2-2 in the SoCon and have won back-to-back games. A third win would be a huge statement to the rest of the SoCon. They would become the next big thing and would be tied with Mercer in the SoCon standings. That would clearly turn the whole SoCon upside down. For Mercer, after the really tough loss at ETSU on Thursday, the Bears need to bounce back emotionally against the hot Bulldogs. The Bears have their next three at home and now it is time for them to go on a winning streak and firmly establish themselves as one of the top seeds in the conference.

Match-up: The team that I think is the best defensive team in the league (Mercer) squares up against the team I think is the second worst defense in the league (The Citadel). Yikes. That's not a good match-up. But both teams are going to slow things down, creating a low scoring atmosphere will neither team will be able to pull away. Ashton Moore has been hot lately and PJ Horgan has been a tough match-up as well. The Bears have been getting more production from Darious Moten lately, and Ike Nwamu has not been playing as well. That's surprising, because Nwamu is truly a special talent.

Prediction: This is a nice run by The Citadel and maybe the Bulldogs can win a second straight SoCon road game and third straight SoCon game overall. But the Bears are the better team. It's hard to imagine the Bulldogs scoring a lot of points. They just aren't equipped for that against a defense  like Mercer's. The Bears offense is not tremendous, but they are good enough to score some against The Citadel. If this game was in Charleston with the current momentum, I might pick the Bulldogs. But it's impossible to pick against the Bears at home. Bears 60, Bulldogs 49.

VMI at Furman (4:00)

What Does It Mean:  If VMI wants to get the final bye, now would be a good time to win a big road game. The Keydets are 1-4 in the SoCon and Furman is 2-2, so a loss here would be more than just a  loss for VMI- it would put them behind the Paladins even further. VMI has three road games in the next four, before five straight at home. The Keydets will need to steal a road game or two during this swing in order to keep them in contact for the final bye. If the Paladins somehow came up with a win in this one, they would have a winning conference record and be in position to really make a run at one of the bye spots. With three straight road games coming up, this is a huge contest for Furman. The Paladins are in a really interesting position in this one. It's a meaningful game in Greenville in conference play. Yes, it's early, but that's a nice change.

Match-up: The Keydets went 1-7 in their last eight games. They can score, but they have plenty of problems shooting. QJ Peterson is shooting 35% from the field and 28.8% from three point range on the season. The Keydets absolutely have to shoot better than that to win. The Paladins defense let Western Carolina go off against them on Monday. But this time the Paladins will be in front of their home crowd. Kendrec Ferrara and Stephen Croone combined for just ten points against UNCG on Thursday. More than likely they will need to do more than that this time around. Croone should have a lot of good shots against this VMI defense.

Prediction: The Keydets up and down offense will give Furman problems. The Paladins are not a great offensive club, but will find ways to score against VMI. Ferrara and Kris Acox will be very important players, and Croone will score plenty. This is a very tight game and really a toss up. That being said, I think the Keydets will give them too many problems and will hold on for a tight win in a huge game for VMI. Peterson has his best game in weeks.  Keydets 91, Paladins 88.

UNCG at Western Carolina (4:30, ESPN3)

What Does It Mean: The Spartans are 1-3 in the SoCon and may have lost Tevon Saddler for a substantial amount of time. But a win here undoes a lot of the team's ills. They have lost three straight and really looked bad doing it. However, Western Carolina is just 2-2, and a win by the Spartans would get these two teams tied at 2-3 in the SoCon. The Spartans need to win at least two of their next three (at Western, VMI, at Samford) to keep contact in the bye race. Western Carolina is 2-2, but the losses are at ETSU and at Chattanooga. That is hardly an embarrassing couple of losses. This team can contend for a spot in the upper crust of the SoCon. After this one, the Catamounts get games at home against Mercer and ETSU and at Wofford, so a win here sets them up heading into their huge three game stretch.

Match-up: Torrion Brummitt is averaging 11.4 points per game and 6.4 rebounds per contest. His performance against Kayel Locke and RJ White in the paint may be the difference in this one. The Spartans need Locke and White to step up, but Brummitt has been a solid inside presence. I also enjoy watching Justin Browning play basketball, even though he doesn't do a lot of flashy things. This may be one of the games where he can score. For the Spartans, if Saddler is out, Diante Baldwin will take on even more importance. His play at point guard will become the most  important thing to watch from game to game.

Prediction: These teams are separated by one game in the standings, but a world in actual performance. Rhett Harrelson and James Sinclair will score points. Remember how the Catamounts couldn't miss against Furman at home on Monday and followed that up with a poor shooting performance against Chattanooga? Now they are at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They will shoot lights out and win relatively easily. Catamounts 82, Spartans 71.

Samford at Wofford (7:00)

What Does It Mean: The Bulldogs are 0-5 in the SoCon, but they are better than that really. They have been close at home against ETSU and Wofford and deserve plenty of credit for that. But losing at The Citadel really puts them in a bind. Yes, the Bulldogs probably are not going to win this one, thus putting them into an even bigger hole for the bye. But the reality is that 8-10 will probably get the bid. A win here would give them another game to play with later, and they played Wofford close just a week ago. The Terriers have played three SoCon games and won by a total of twelve points. That's hardly as impressive as you would expect from a team that people think will roll through conference play. The near home loss to VMI on Thursday was not inspiring. It's time for Wofford to come out and show what they are capable of.

Match-up: Samford really needs to get some production out of Tyler Hood. Hood scored zero against the Terriers just a week ago. He will need to do much better. He has to step up his game to match Christen Cunningham and Darius Jones-Gibson as a third scorer. If he does not step up, the Bulldogs are in big trouble. The Terriers need Lee Skinner to step it up a notch. He scored just three points a week ago. There is no reason Skinner can't have a really solid game against Samford. Which team's player will perform better than a week? That may be the deciding factor in this one.

Prediction: The Terriers are due for a breakout game...but I said that Thursday. Wofford will make it ugly, but in the end, does anyone really think that Samford is going to walk into BenJo and come out with the win? It's hard to see. Skinner gets a double-double, and Cochran scores about 15. It will be ugly, and Wofford will win. Terriers 71, Bulldogs 58.

SoCon Reviews- 1/8/15

ETSU 71, Mercer 70

Player of the Game: Jalen Riley...again. Off the bench, Riley poured in 22 points on 5 of 12 shooting, while making 3 of 7 from three and 9 of 10 from the free throw line. Riley made some big shots in this one that helped the Bucs get the win. Riley is certainly the best player off the bench in the SoCon. If you read Pomeroy's site, he has Riley listed as the second best player in the conference.

Stat of the Game: ETSU 39 rebounds, Mercer 33. The Bears are the biggest team in the SoCon. The Bucs are the smallest. How does ETSU outrebound Mercer? Who knows, but if Mercer had won the battle of the boards, they more than likely would have come up with the win. This was the most surprising stat of the game.

What It All Means: For Mercer, this is their first conference loss, but it is hardly a bad one. They went on the road to Johnson City and lost by just one point against one of the better teams in the SoCon. Their defense let them down for a stretch at the beginning of the game and another one about midway through the second half, and that was what cost them. Ike Nwamu has been interesting. In four SoCon games, he scored 18, then 15, then 12, then tonight he scored just six. For the Bears to be as good as they can be, they need Nwamu to step up and deliver consistently. Still, after three road games to open the January portion of SoCon play, the Bears went 2-1. Now they have three straight home games. I think they would have taken that before this stretch of games. ETSU has Jalen Riley and Rashawn Rembert, who combined to score 39 points and make 8 of 18 from long range. The rest of the team scored 32 points and made just 2 of 8 from three point distance. That is their offensive option. The amazing thing is that the Bucs outrebounded the Bears. This team plays hard, but since they are so guard oriented on offense, they can go through stretches where they don't score. When they are making shots, they look unstoppable. When they are not going in, you wonder if they will ever score again. The Bucs got the huge home win, and now have won more SoCon wins than any team in the conference with four. They get Chattanooga at home on Saturday.

Chattanooga 66, Western Carolina 60

Player of the Game: Justin Tuoyo had fifteen points and nine blocked shots. He only came up with one rebound, which is disappointing. He made 5 of 9 from the floor and knocked down 5 of 7 from the free throw line. Tuoyo was supposed to be a defensive presence, but he is turning into more than that, which really makes the Mocs dangerous.

Stat of the Game: The Mocs came up with a school record 15 blocks on Thursday night. That's incredible. SoCon teams are going to have to figure out a way to shoot over Tuoyo. They have not figured it out yet. This is going to evolve as the season goes on, but on this night, the Catamounts struggled to get good looks.

What It All Means: Western Carolina made nearly 60% from the floor against Furman on Monday but only made 35% tonight. The Catamounts just are not equipped to win games where they shoot that poorly. James Sinclair and Rhett Harrelson combined to shoot 10 of 29 from the floor. The Catamounts are a decent club right now, and hung tough against the Mocs. But they showed they are probably not the equal of the other top four teams in the conference at this point. They are the clear fifth best team right now, but not quite ready to take the jump to the next level. They host UNCG on Saturday. The Mocs showed up defensively, that's for sure. Without Greg Pryor (out with an apparent hip injury), the Mocs needed to turn to some other players to guide the offense. They looked a little lost at times without their point guard. But they made shots when they needed to and stepped up in a big way on the defensive end of the floor. Casey Jones poured in 18 points with 13 rebounds. The Mocs are 3-1 in SoCon play now and tied with Mercer overall, and tied with ETSU in the loss column. The Mocs renew their old rivalry with the Bucs on Saturday.

Wofford 75, VMI 70

Player of the Game: Karl Cochran. Cochran scored 19 points on 7 of 16 shooting, had five rebounds, two assists, two steals and three blocks. No one has been filling up a stat sheet  like he has in recent weeks. Cochran has been amazing and he just kept on rolling.

Stat of the Game: VMI 4 of 22 from three point range. How much longer are we going to have to endure this shooting slump from the Keydets? It is starting to get painful at times. It can be almost painful to watch a team that flies up and down the floor like VMI shoot so poorly. Of course, Wofford and Mercer will do that to a lot of SoCon teams this year.

What It All Means: The Keydets finally looked like a good team again, and nearly took out Wofford on their home floor. VMI is now 1-4 in SoCon play, but showed why they have been considered a serious threat to get a bye in the SoCon race. VMI dominated the glass against a bigger Wofford team, but simply did not make enough threes to win the game. This is a quality team that could win a lot of games in SoCon play, but they need better production from QJ Peterson. He made 5 of 18 from the floor and 1 of 7 from three. He is the Keydets best player, but continues to really struggle. They go to Furman on Saturday. Wofford is now 3-0 in SoCon play, and keep their hopes alive for an elusive SoCon at large bid to the NCAA Tournament, slim that they are. The Terriers keep on winning ugly. That is what they do now. They win games where they don't look good doing it. They came back from a second half deficit again to come up with the win. But they keep on winning, so nothing else matters. Wofford gets to play Samford for the second time in a week on Saturday.

The Citadel 77, Samford 67

Player of the Game: Ashton Moore scored 20 points with five rebounds and four assists. Moore made 5 of 13 from the floor and 9 of 9 from the free throw line. He has scored over 20 in each of the last two wins for The Citadel. If he keeps on scoring like that, the Bulldogs will have the offensive weapon they need.

Stat of the Game: The Citadel came up with a 58.3 OR%. Wow. That is unbelievable. I am truly not sure I have ever seen numbers that high in a SoCon game since I have been doing these write ups. They dominated the offensive glass and that was one of the main reasons that they came up with the relatively easy win. Samford simply could not come up with a big defensive rebound.

What It All Means: Samford played OK during stretches, but could not wind up with the win. The rebounding was obviously a major issue. Christen Cunningham scored just eight points, but Darius Jones-Gibson scored 18 points and Brandon Roberts collected 15. This team is 0-5 in SoCon play, but they deserve a better fate. They are not that bad of a team. But with this loss it is time to start worrying about them. With trips to Wofford and Mercer and a home date against Chattanooga in their next three games, this is a really difficult set of games coming up. The team could struggle to maintain any positive momentum during this stretch. They need to come up with something other than a moral victory soon. The Citadel got to 2-2 in SoCon  play and suddenly sits tied with Furman and Western Carolina for fifth in the conference. Who saw that coming? They absolutely dominated the glass, Quinton Marshall knocked down some big shots, PJ Horgan came up with four blocks, they made a nice run to close out the game, and now have won three of four. The Bulldogs go to Mercer on Saturday. A win there would tie them with the Bears in the standings. What is going on here? This is one of the most interesting developments in the SoCon right now. How long can it keep up?

Furman 71, UNCG 64

Player of the Game: Devin Sibley scored 21 points on 5 of 9 shooting from the floor and 9 of 13 shooting from the free throw line. He also came up with four rebounds. He played very well. If he can be a valid, consistent option along with Stephen Croone, this team gets much better.

Stat of the Game: Furman 24 of 32 from the free throw line. UNCG 6 of 12. That is a massive difference in a seven point game. The Spartans could not make their free throws and they fouled a lot. The Spartans can not have that combination and expect to win.

What It All Means: The Spartans are now 1-3 in SoCon play after blowing a huge double digit lead on the road against the Paladins on Thursday night. Tevon Saddler went down with a late injury, that may be serious. Nicholas Paulos scored  just  five points. They held Stephen Croone to ten points and Kendrec Ferrara to zero, which sounds like a recipe for a Spartans win. But they did not close the deal. Things are unraveling quickly. It was a microcosm of the whole season for the Spartans. They look good for stretches, make their fans believe that good things are possible, and then rip their fans heart out with an unbelievably bad finish. Kind of like the whole season. For Furman, they won on a night where Croone and Ferrara combined for ten points! Amazing. That was completely unforeseen. Kris Acox did wind up with eleven points and thirteen rebounds. Ferrara and Acox need to start both playing well at the same time. The Paladins now find themselves tied with The Citadel and Western Carolina for fifth in the SoCon. This is unbelievable. The Paladins host VMI on Saturday. That is a huge opportunity for this team to get to 3-2 in SoCon play and start to make their fan base really believe they can get a bye.