Scanning the SoCon- Week Six

Each week, twelve bloggers/message boarders (one representing each team) all will vote on a Game of the Week and Power Rankings. At least four will answer a series of questions on their team and around the SoCon. Don't forget to check back Monday through Friday to read Daily Dribbles from around the SoCon here on MocsMania.

CONTRIBUTORS

Appalachian State- Yosef's Cabin T-Dog
Chattanooga- Mocs Mania- JohnMoc
College of Charleston- King Kresse CougarSurf11
Davidson- Davidson Cats Message Board David Sink
Elon- Elon Pendulum Student Newspaper- Zachary Horner
Furman- The UFFP Message Board- Hawg
Georgia Southern- GSU Fans Message Board half-n-half
Samford- Samford Bulldogs Message Board AP
The Citadel- The Sports Arsenal- Sandlapper Spike
UNC-Greensboro- UNCG Basketball Fan DashSpartan
Western Carolina- Purple & Gold Jerry Love
Wofford- Terrier Fans Message Board Cody Cooper

 

SCHEDULE

Sunday
Presbyterian at Furman

Tuesday
Chattanooga at LSU

Thursday
Anderson at College of Charleston

Saturday
Elon at Massachusetts
Western Carolina at Georgetown
Georgia Southern at Virginia Tech (Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic)
UNC-Wilmington at Davidson
The Citadel at Gardner-Webb
Furman at Auburn
Sam Houston State at Samford

POWER RANKINGS

1) Davidson 131 (10)
2) College of Charleston 120 (1)
3) Elon 111
4) Wofford 91
5) Western Carolina 87
6) UNCG 84
7) Chattanooga 56
8) Georgia Southern 47
9) Samford 45
10) The Citadel 34
11) Appalachian State 30
12) Furman 22

GAME OF THE WEEK

Elon at Massachusetts- 7 votes

Others receiving votes- Western Carolina at Georgetown (2), Chattanooga at LSU (1), UNC-Wilmington at Davidson (1)

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team since the last time you wrote.

Davidson- I last wrote about Davidson following the losses to UNM and UWM. Since then the Wildcats went 2-1 in Orlando, 2-0 in conference games, and lost to Charlotte. The win over Vandy avenged last year's home loss. De'Mon Brooks led the Wildcats with 19 points. Fans were very excited by Jordan Barham's 9 points and 5 rebounds in 14 minutes of play. Next was a win over West Virginia. Chris Czerapowicz led the way with 15 points and 9 rebounds. Gonzaga won the tournament title by 14 over Davidson. Nik Cochran had 17 points and JP Kuhlman returned to the lineup for the first time since suffering an ankle injury at UWM. The Wildcats then opened conference play at Chattanooga. The 81-55 win was the largest ever for the Wildcats in Chattanooga. Tyler Kalinoski led the way with 15. As a team, the Wildcats made 14 of 29 3-pointers. The Wildcats then played their first home D1 game of the season on 12/5. 5267 were present to watch a hotly contested game. Davidson led by 3 with the ball at the under-4 timeout, but lost to a still-undefeated Charlotte team by 4. Last night the Wildcats moved to 2-0 in conference play with a 7 point win over Wofford.

Elon- Elon has fared well since the last time I wrote. Wins over Florida Atlantic (to cap off the EA Sports Maui Invitational Regional Games championship), South Carolina, Georgia Southern and Dartmouth have given the Phoenix a great deal of confidence, only slightly tempered by tough losses to VMI and a heartbreaking finish to College of Charleston in arguably the best conference game so far this season. If Elon had been able to pull out a victory over the Cougars, it would be a nice and safe 2-0 in conference play. Non-conference games against U-Mass Dec. 15 and Duke Dec. 20 should be good holiday tests for the Phoenix. Lucas Troutman has played spectacular and should be considered an early favorite for first-team all-SoCon the way he’s playing for one of the better teams in the conference.

Samford- It will be a long December and we’re looking for reasons to believe that, maybe, this year will be better than the last. Samford is dealing with injuries, attrition, and losses. Tyler Hood injured his hand during a really bad home loss to Florida Gulf Coast and is out until at least the start of conference play. Although he had not transitioned well to being a #1 or #2 option, Hood is a very good player and a great leader. He needs to be on the floor. Gregg Wooten, who was out for the 2011-12 season with an Achilles injury, remains on the sidelines in street clothes and can’t get healthy. Levi Barnes, the only player other than Tim Williams listed at 6-5 or taller, is no longer on the roster, so Samford will be forced to play incredibly small even though Barnes was largely a non-contributor. Samford took some bad losses in Atlantis on the Mainland (to Toledo and, in overtime, SWAC member Alcorn State), came back from a bad first half against UT-Arlington to lose by 7, and then got drilled by A-Sun member Florida Gulf Coast at home. The Bulldogs briefly bounced back by beating Georgia Southern (first place in the SoCon!). The Bulldogs them promptly got drilled at Kentucky. Coach Bennie Seltzer called them "the worst Kentucky basketball team ever" (or something similar) in a pep talk. That comment, and Coach Calapari’s reaction to it, made PTI. On Saturday, a 10-point halftime lead evaporated during a 34-9 second half-run by Bowling Green. Samford lost that game 57-42. Williams and Raijon Kelly continue to play well, but they’re getting no help from the rest of the roster. Samford is allowing more than 1.1 points per possession (but only allowed 0.91 against GaSou), which is mildly troubling for a coaching staff that preached a defense-first philosophy. There are, however, lots of (apparently) bad SoCon teams. More than half the league is rated worse than 250 on both BasketballState.com and KenPom at this point. Coming into the year, no one believed that Samford (or any SoCon team) would receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, so experimentation with lineups and looks hopefully will pay off during SoCon play and the SoCon Tournament—when the games really matter.

The Citadel- It has been a tough stretch for The Citadel, which has lost three straight games and looked bad in the process. The Bulldogs played poorly in the first half of all three contests. Against Radford, The Citadel turned the ball over repeatedly, while the losses to UNCG and Charleston Southern featured terrible defense, especially in defending the three-pointer. The Bulldogs shot the ball fairly well, but that was the only real positive.

Now that the early conference games are complete, what four teams do you think will get the byes in the SoCon Tournament? (This year, each division champ gets a bye, and two other teams with the best conference record will get a bye.)

Davidson- I feel pretty confident about Davidson, Elon, and CofC getting byes. I think that WCU and UNCG will battle for second in the North, but I like Wofford to earn the final bye. I think Wofford can build a solid record against GSU, Furman, and The Citadel. I think that they can get to 11-7. It'll be tough for the 2nd team in the North to get to 11-7.

Elon- Davidson, College of Charleston, Elon, Western Carolina.

Samford- Davidson, Elon, Charleston, and probably Western Carolina. It’s still too early to tell definitively though.

The Citadel- Davidson, College of Charleston, Elon...and I'll say Western Carolina.

Davidson does not have as good of a record as many people thought they would at this point in the year. What (if anything) do you think is wrong with Davidson? Is it merely that their schedule needs to ease up? Or is it something more serious?

Davidson- Davidson is 4-4 in D1 games and 5-4 overall. I thought the Wildcats would be 7-2 or 6-3. The only really puzzling loss is the one at UWM. Davidson fans have varying theories on the season thus far. After last night's game, some of us couldn't even agree on what we'd just seen. We've heard of injuries to Nik and JP, illness from De'Mon, and Czerapowicz was still recovering from off-season surgery. Strength of schedule is certainly a factor. Pomeroy rates Davidson's OOC schedule as the 14th toughest in the nation so far. The team is still adjusting to some personnel changes. Oft-injured Frank Ben-Eze gave the Wildcats a 4th big body last year. Will Reigel provided some excellent leadership and seemed to be a steadying influence for his teammates. And assistant coach Landry Kosmalski left to become the head coach at Swarthmore. The Wildcats only have 3 games between now and the early January game against Duke. UNCW, Drexel, and Richmond provide some opportunities to get better. I think we'll see a smoother, more focused group of Wildcats by the time we resume conference play.

Elon- I’m not all caught up with what Davidson has done so far. I know they’ve played a tough schedule, but I have a feeling that once they get deep into conference play, they’ll get back on track. I’m not prone to worrying about Bob McKillop’s club. I watched their win over West Virginia and was thoroughly impressed.

Samford- Davidson has had close losses to good teams. They’re a very, very good basketball team. Nothing is wrong with them that I can tell. In close games, someone’s going to lose. They’re a top 50 team in the country at this point and just haven’t gotten the breaks that you need in close games.

The Citadel- Davidson has one "bad loss" (Milwaukee). I don't think the rest of its season has been that disappointing. Statistically, Davidson's biggest problem is probably the number of free throws attempted by its opponents, although the New Mexico loss accounts for quite a bit of that. Davidson has probably lost any opportunity it may have had for potential at-large consideration (unless it beats Duke), but should still be heavily favored to win the SoCon.

College of Charleston is leaving in the fall of 2013. Who would you like to see replace them? What should the SoCon’s approach be to expansion?

Chattanooga- I tend to think that I would love to see the school expand to fourteen schools. ETSU, Northern Kentucky, Mercer Murray State, VMI, Kennesaw State, and East Carolina would all be wonderful adds. That’s seven schools. Surely the SoCon can weasel away a handful of those. If not, I can imagine a situation where the SoCon fades away and every school leaves in the next 36 months.

Davidson- I'd love to add East Carolina for all sports except football. It would give us another large public institution and move us into the rumored, but rarely seen, eastern part of North Carolina. If not them, I'd like to see UNCA or ETSU if we aren't adding a football school or the return of VMI if we want a football school. I hope that the conference leaders are talking to these schools and several others. We need to have contingency plans for losing several other conference members.

Elon- Just add one school. I think the 12-team system with the playoff byes and everything works very well right now and doesn’t necessarily need improving.

Samford- I think the SoCon needs to undertake targeted expansion to reach fourteen or sixteen like-minded institutions, but the league office already has squandered an opportunity to seal off the southern flank of the CAA. Generally, I think SoCon members need to have a long-term commitment to FCS football (if they play football), aggressive mid-major basketball, and (ideally) a very competitive academic profile; they also need to be located in attractive TV markets and have committed alumni bases. Because the SoCon is losing a non-football member, replacing CofC with a non-football school maintains equilibrium. My first choice would be Belmont, which is a good geographic and cultural fit. Belmont has a competitive academic profile, great basketball program, high-APR athletic department, and would add the #29 television market in the country. Assuming that no present CAA members will scale their million-dollar Berlin Wall to exit the league, other possible candidates would include Kennesaw State (on the verge of becoming one of the largest schools in Georgia), Mercer (strong academics, improving athletics), or VMI (strong academics, athletics in need of a major upgrade). App State and Georgia Southern, which could have opportunities to join FBS leagues in the very near future as a result of trickle-down realignment, would necessitate a different acquisition profile. Rather than risking relegation to a low-major status or depending on “up-and-coming” target schools, the SoCon may need to explore allowing upper-tier athletic programs to join the SoCon in less than all sports. Unfortunately, because the SoCon has been reactionary, rather than aggressive, it likely will not end up a stronger league in 12 months than it was a year ago.

UNCG-I have said repeatedly that I want schools similar to UNCG to get into the SoCon. So I'd love to see Winthrop or ETSU get in the league. But I'd actually like to see a smaller league that allowed for round robin games in basketball. So not replacing Charleston would be fine with me. However if ASU and/or GSU leave in the next few weeks, the league will have to look to add new teams.

Eastern Kentucky 63, Mocs 52

The wheels aren't coming off for the Mocs, but they are close. They are 2-6, but this was not a solid performance. They had been playing well until last Saturday's showing against Davidson, and then halfway through the second half of this one was a disaster.

The Mocs were down 56-33 late into the game. But then the Mocs went on a run to end it and lose by just eleven.

The problems were numerous in this one. It started with six turnovers before they even got a shot off. In the end, the Mocs only committed 21 turnovers. Given that they were on pace for 70 at the first TV timeout, that actually is not all that bad. Combine that with the fact that they forced 19 turnovers, and the turnovers turned out to not be a major problem.

The Mocs outrebounded Eastern Kentucky by just one. This was the second straight opponent that the Mocs needed to dominate the boards against. Their opponents in both games had struggled rebounding, and yet the Mocs were unable to dominate the glass against either team. So it was a real problem that the Mocs did not win the boards by more.

The problem, as chronicled Thursday on this blog, was that the Mocs allowed the Colonels to shoot 54% of their shots from three point range. The Colonels eFG% was 58%. That is just way too high for the Mocs to allow for them to win games consistently.The Mocs did make 11 of 15 from the free throw line in the second half, and shot a bunch of free throws.

This was a winnable game for the Mocs. But their early struggles took them out of the flow. The offense is terrible right now. It has nowhere to go but up. I thought Casey Jones looked improved in this contest. He went strong several times. Drazen Zlovaric scored 12 points on 5 of 6 shooting. He played pretty well.

What can the Mocs do? I have no idea. I'm at a little bit of a loss at this point. I am still hopeful of a turnaround in the near future, but I am starting to doubt my own beliefs at this point. Maybe it's just a bad night and I'll feel better in the morning.

Maybe there's still hope out there.

Maybe.

GO MOCS!

Eastern Kentucky: Four Factors

eFG%
Colonels- 58.0%
Mocs- 45.2%
Advantage- Colonels

TO%
Colonels- 31.0%
Mocs- 34.2%
Advantage- Colonels

OR%
Colonels- 39.3%
Mocs- 41.4%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Colonels- 14.0%
Mocs- 52.4%
Advantage- Mocs

3PA%
Colonels- 54.0%
Mocs- 23.8%

Eastern Kentucky Preview: Guard Heavy

A week later, the Mocs return to lick their wounds and try to get well against an unbeaten team.

The last time we saw this Mocs team, they were getting hammered by Davidson in the Mocs worst performance of the year to date. They could not make a shot to save their lives. They could not stop Davidson from making long range threes. The Mocs seemed a little deflated after the game.

But this week, they have been focusing on exams....and on getting better on the basketball court. Assuming everything you read is true, they have focused on their offense this week, something that desperately needed to happen.

Eastern Kentucky is playing just their second road game of the year. Their first road game was at North Carolina Central on Tuesday, a game the Colonels won 63-57. Before that they beat Western Carolina by two and Towson by two. They also beat Kennesaw State in Richmond by fourteen. Those are the interesting results of their early unbeaten run. They also beat Delaware State by 33, Norfolk State by 24, Radford by 8, and Cincinnati Christian by 33.

Eastern Kentucky gives up an extraordinary number of offensive rebounds to their opponents. Opponents rebound 42.9% of their misses, making the Colonels 343rd in the country (out of 347 teams) in this statistic.

Glenn Cosey is the Colonels best player.  He is a 6-0 junior guard. He is averaging 17.0 points per game on 51.7% shooting from the floor and 45.7% shooting from three point range. After watching the Wildcats fill up the basket last Saturday from long range, it is easy to imagine Cosey having a big game. Mike DiNunno is a 5-11 senior. He is shooting 46.7% from three point range, 48.8% from the floor, and averaging 14.4 points per game. He also made the game winning shot against Western Carolina.

Tarius Johnson is a 6-5 junior, and he leads the Colonels in rebounding at 5.4 per contest. He shoots just 40.4% from the floor and is averaging 6.9 points per game. Eric Stutz is a 6-8 sophomore. He is the biggest player the Colonels play regularly. He is shooting over 62% from the floor, averaging 8.6 points and 3.9 rebounds per contest.

The Colonels will rely heavily on Cosey and DiNunno to score for them, but with Stutz as a legitimate other option, this team does have a solid offense. They also are extraordinarily good at forcing turnovers. They have forced turnovers on 28.6% of possessions this year, that is good for fifth in the country. They do struggle to rebound. They also foul a lot. But this team is a good shooting team, and that is dangerous for a Mocs team that sometimes has struggled defending this year.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs will outrebound the Colonels by a fairly significant margin.
--The Mocs will turn the ball over far too much.
--Farad Cobb, who will play despite the eye injury he suffered late in last Saturday's game, will struggle to be effective due to the eye injury.
--Z Mason and Drazen Zlovaric will have big games against the smaller Colonels.
--Gee McGhee will continue his development.
--Mocs 66, Eastern Kentucky 63. This is a very interesting match-up for the Mocs. They have a real chance to come up with a win against a pretty good Eastern Kentucky team. I expect to see a little bit better offensive efficiency after the week off. I expect to see the Mocs dominate the boards, and that will be the final difference.

GO MOCS!

Daily Dribbles- 12-7-12

--If you haven't gotten to see much of the Cougars this year, you may not realize the huge leaps Adejhi Baru has made. KingKresse has a great article summing up his development. It's one of the better articles you've read this year.

--A nice little summary of the SoCon to date, focused mostly on Appalachian State, but still plenty of other fun.

--For those of you who have not seen it yet, UNCGFans has a great daily prediction and roundup thread. Follow this week's thread here.

--For those who are not Moc fans and did not read the article on here about the best way to defend the three, I recommend highly heading out to KenPom and reading his article on the topic.

KenPom Always a Genius-The Potential Error of Fire

Seriously, Pomeroy is a genius. (He's worth the $20 subscription- I highly recommend it.) I love that he actually researches stuff, and gives me all the information I need to know to prove my points. People hate when I try to prove points using statistics. Who cares about the facts, after all? Well, Pomeroy lays out some very interesting facts about three point percentage defense.

So first, take a second and go subscribe.....

http://kenpom.com/register.php

Now that you're back, head back over there for the article. (You can read the article without subscribing, if you insist.)

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

This article states clearly that it basically does not matter how high of a three point percentage you allow. In the end, teams basically revert to the mean on three point defense allowed.

But the key in the whole thing is how many three pointers you allow an opponent to take. THAT is how you have an impact on your opponent from three point range.

I have always included this stat in my Four Factors postgame post as a "special" fifth stat. My reasoning was always that I did not want the Mocs to shoot a lot of threes. When they get too married to the three point line, that normally spells trouble, because they don't make a really high percentage from three point range. That is a historical discussion- not necessarily one about this year's team.

What about what happened last night to Davidson against Charlotte? They did not shoot a bunch of threes, therefore they did not make a bunch. On Saturday night, they shot 50% of their shots from three point range. If the Wildcats had shot the same percentage they shot last night (45.5%) from three point range on the remainder of their threes, they would have needed to take 46.8% of their shots from three point range to win the game- a game they lost by four.  In other words, Charlotte won the game by forcing Davidson off the three point line- not by defending the three well. This is the recipe for how to beat a good three point shooting team like Davidson.

So- wait? What does this mean about the Mocs old "Fire" defense? The Mocs always forced opponents to shoot a high percentage of their threes, figuring they would miss a high percentage of them. They were right.

Last year was the best three point field goal percentage by the Mocs under Shulman, when they allowed 33.5% from three point range playing FIRE. In 2008 (a year the Mocs went 18-13), they were the worst from three point range, allowing 36.3% from three point range. All of those ranked from just barely in the top half of the country to the bottom 20% in the country.

So, the Mocs have never been great at defending three pointers. But last year wasn't bad- finishing 127th nationally. But they allowed opponents to take threes on 48.9% of their possessions, which ranked 345th in the country....345th!!  That means that 41% of their opponents points were from threes- good for #1 in the country. That means the Mocs gave up a higher percentage from three point range than any  other team in the country.

In other words, FIRE did not particularly work. Their opponents, due to the high number of threes they were taking, were scoring, despite decent three point percentage defense. The Mocs failed to run Davidson off the three point line last Saturday night- and they could not begin to control the Davidson offense. They need to do a better job running teams off the three point line in the future if they want to have more success on the defensive side.

The reason Shulman stopped running FIRE this year was because he thought the team was too young to learn it. They are still allowing opponents to take 45.6% of their shots from three point....good for 345th in the country still. Not good. Opponents are only scoring 35.8% of their points from three point range, good for 18th in the country (18th being bad for the Mocs). So they are still allowing a huge chunk of their opponents points to come from three point range.

So what's the point? I don't know. I'm not smart enough to figure it out. Maybe the 2008 Mocs (who were 341st allowing opponents to take threes, and also allowed the highest percentage of points from three point range in the country and went 18-13) have it right. Maybe when accompanied with the right other characteristics, the Mocs can win with that set of numbers on three point defense.

But as I read what KenPom says about the best way to defend the three is to not allow your opponents to take them, and I look at the stats on that for the Mocs, I tend to think that method does not work. It's a compelling argument.

One that many Moc fans ought to want to hear.

GO MOCS!

Daily Dribbles- 12-6-12

--Wofford beat Gardner-Webb on Wednesday night, which was a big win for both the Terriers and the SoCon. Lee Skinner scored 19 of the team's 54 points. They collected just one offensive rebound. Nicely done, Terriers.

--Depressingly, the SoCon couldn't follow it up with a second out of conference win. Davidson's loss to Charlotte may just prove that the Cats are on their way to big things, since they have done well when they have lost to Charlotte in the past.

--Jay Canty won the SoCon Player of the Week for Appalachian State. I'm rarely in favor of a team that does not have a win having the Player of the Week. But, to be fair, Canty averaged 22 points in two games. So Canty probably earned it.

--Ready for Saturday's games? Two SoCon battles Saturday with Appalachian State and Western Carolina hooking up while Wofford and Davidson battle.

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Recap: Charlotte 73, Davidson 69

A thoroughly disappointing night for the Wildcats.

That's the best way to sum this one up. The Wildcats were pounded on the boards by the 49ers. They did not compete well on the boards, and this is why Davidson lost in the end. Also, the Wildcats made just 72% of the free throws, which is well below their season average.

Tom Droney scored 14 points for the Wildcats. Droney was a critical part for the Wildcats on Wednesay night, which was critical for them. De'Mon Brooks scores just 13. Jake Cohen was the team leader with 15.

The Wildcats did not rebound well, though. That was the story of the game in the end. They made more free throws and more threes than the 49ers. They made a higher percentage of their shots from the field. However, they took twelve fewer shots than Davidson did.

Remember the two Wildcats that I like the most that are not big names? Tyler Kalinoski and Chris Czerapowicz. They played a combined 38 minutes, took a total of two shots, and did not make either. They had a combined three assists and three turnovers.

Was this what lead to Davidson's loss? Czerapowicz did not play well. They made just five threes. The Wildcats were supposed to be a better three point shooting team than Charlotte, yet they made just one more three than the 49ers. That was another serious failure on the Wildcats part. They are the much better shooting team. They needed to make more threes. They took one less than the 49ers. This does not make sense for a team that normally shoots as well as the Wildcats do.

How do you beat Davidson? Run them off the three point line. That's what it looks like after watching this game. If you can rebound, and can run the Wildcats of the three point line, then you have a real chance to beat them. This is not a recipe that many teams will be able to utilize, especially in the SoCon. But it at least lays the groundwork for some teams.

Daily Dribbles- 12-5-12

--The SoCon blew their three opportunities to beat ranked teams on Tuesday night. Louisville pounded College of Charleston in Charleston. It was never close. The Cougars showed that they may have further to go than they thought. Then again, maybe it was just a fluke. Samford, as expected, was destroyed by Kentucky. Western Carolina hung around with Illinois tonight, showing how far the Catamounts have come in recent weeks. They are proving that their preseason prediction of being third in the North was not too high.

--Charleston Southern pounded on crosstown rival The Citadel. Arlon Harper scored 30 for CSU, and Jeremy Sexton and Saah Nimley scored 20 each. That's seventy points for those three players. The Citadel scored 73 total as a team. Wow. This game was a wake up call to the Bulldogs to show that they are not as far along as I was hoping they were.

--Elon beat up on Dartmouth. That was nice. At least the SoCon got one win on the night. True but funny story. Dartmouth's starters combined to score eleven points. Ten was by one player. The Phoenix are looking good in the North.

--Wednesday is another opportunity for the SoCon. Davidson hosts UNC-Charlotte, and Wofford is hosting Gardner-Webb (who is 5-4 overall). A chance for the SoCon to pick up a win over an unbeaten team (UNCC) and a Big South team (Gardner-Webb). Both of these games are winnable. The SoCon needs them.

SoCon Monster Game of the Week: UNC-Charlotte at Davidson

Here. We. Go.

It's a rivalry game over the city of Charlotte. Which team will rule the city? Which team will wind up finding their way through this landmine game?

The Wildcats have lost multiple times to the 49ers over the years, often when it is least expected. This is one of those times. The Wildcats are supposed to win this game. This is supposed to be Davidson's year.

However, now, the 49ers are 7-0, and unbeaten. There is no reason to think that they can not compete in this game. They have been pointing to it as a chance to prove themselves, and prove that they are ready to compete on a national level. Are they ready to walk into Davidson's home building and pull off the upset? The best team they have beaten so far? Probably Northeastern.

What about Davidson? A couple of nice wins over Vanderbilt and West Virginia has been muted by the fact that neither team appear very good right now. The loss to New Mexico is hurting the Wildcats right now. Not as much as that loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Are the Wildcats ready to win this game?

Chris Braswell leads the 49ers with 15.2 points per game and 6.7 rebounds per game. Braswell is a 6-9 senior. He is shooting 50.8% from the field. He is making 72.7% from the free throw line. Braswell is a very good player, and will be tough for the Wildcats to figure out a way to guard him.

DeMario Mayfield is a 6-5 guard. He is averaging 10.6 points per game. However, he does not have a great shot. He has made 2 of 13 three point range. He is shooting 43.6% from the floor, while averaging 2.6 rebounds and two assists per game. Terrence Williams ia a 6-4 guard, and has made just 1 of 14 three pointers. He is also averaging 10.6 points per game, with 4.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists per contest. Pierria Henry leads the 49ers in assists with 4.0 per game and 4.9 rebounds. He also is averaging 7.7 points per game.

The 49ers are averaging shooting just 12.6 three pointers per game. This is a good strategy for them- they are making just 26.1% from downtown. The 49ers are a good rebounding team, coming in at 61st in the country in OR% and 149th in DR%.

Davidson is a team that those that follow the SoCon know all about. The Wildcats rank in the bottom third in the country in OR% and DR%. They also foul a lot. Those are the teams two weaknesses, though. The Wildcats are number five in the country in FT% at 79% on the year.

De'Mon Brooks is the go-to guy on this team. With 16.7 points per game and 6.0 rebounds per game, he leads the team in both categories. The good news for the Wildcats is that Jake Cohen has found his way back again. After struggling early in the year, Cohen seems to have found his footing. He is second on the team with 11.4 points and 5.6 reboudns per game. These two guys lead the Wildcats attack again.

Tyler Kalinoski, Nik Cochran, and JP Kuhlman are other key contributors. But Chris Czerapowicz is one of the most important players on the roster. He can get red hot from three point range. When is shooting well, it really opens up the inside game. He is the most pure shooter for them. He has an eFG% of 58.9%.

The Wildcats will shoot the ball extraordinarily well. The key may be how well the Wildcats rebound against the 49ers. If they can maintain an even level on rebounding (especially in percentage, not just in total rebounds), then they will be successful in this game. Of course, the 49ers slashing offense may cause them trouble, as it has in the past. The Wildcats are not a great defensive team on the perimeter. A little slashing could be dangerous to them.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--The 49ers will shoot very well from the floor.
--The Wildcats will match their shooting effort.
--Czerapowicz is going to explode and be the star of this game.
--The rebounding battle will come out roughly even.
--Davidson 76, Charlotte 72. This one comes down to the end, but in the end, the Wildcats will make their free throws down the stretch, handing the 49ers their first loss.

Daily Dribbles- 12-4-12

--Nice piece about Jerry Moore leaving Appalachian State as head football coach. Down towards the bottom, some notes on Appy basketball.

--Louisville is in the Top 5 and at College of Charleston Tuesday night on ESPNU. It's time for all SoCon fans to jump on board. CAA fans maybe too, since their struggles this year are becoming well known.

--The Citadel also goes to Charleston Southern in a second match-up of teams from the city of Charleston. Interesting game.

--Samford's trip to Kentucky is unlikely to find the Bulldogs with an upset, but the Wildcats have looked vulnerable.

--Elon hosts Dartmouth and may be the most likely win on Tuesday nigh for the SoCon. The Phoenix and the SoCon really need the win.

Gee McGhee Developing

Gee McGhee came into the year, and I was expecting him to be solid. I thought Farad Cobb was going to be the star freshman, but McGhee was not too far behind.

So far this year, McGhee has been very good. He is second on the team in scoring, averaging 10.0 points per game. He is second on the team in assists with 13- Rico White leads the team with 14.

It's obvious when you watch McGhee play that he has plenty of talent. He is quick off the dribble and can get into the lane. He has a nice looking shot.

The problem is that his shots aren't falling. Yet. He is shooting 23.7% from three point range (9 of 38).  He is only making 56.7% from the free throw line. I feel confident that McGhee's shots will eventually start falling.

While the other freshman have shown sparks, it is McGhee that has shown the most flash. He is the one that appears to be in the best position to be a star in the long run.

I'm excited about Cobb and his shooting, and Jones is a solid rebounder and has shown plenty of athleticism too. Robertson has shown some sparks as he gets going.

McGhee is the most exciting player out there. He is developing. He has plenty of talent, and is trying to get the Mocs advanced.

There is plenty of hope for the Mocs future. I'm looking forward to watching this team continue to develop and grow, even though the Mocs are struggling right now. The Mocs will be successful in the long run. I really do believe that. McGhee is one of the future leaders. I'm very excited to watch him grow.

Daily Dribbles- 12-3-12

--The North went 2-2 vs. the South on Saturday night. Which division is better? Got me. Wofford is yet to play a SoCon game. For right now, it looks like College of Charleston and Davidson are the pride of the conference, and the rest of the conference is pretty much.

--In case you missed it, CofC went off and joined the CAA on Friday, effective fall of 2013. We had lots of good reaction here at MocsMania (as we try to with every big SoCon story). Check it out here and here.

--It was a great night for UNCG on Saturday night. Dash has a great response here, and their win over The Citadel shows that the Spartans are going to make a run in the SoCon.

--Following a brutally tough loss to undefeated Eastern Kentucky on Saturday night, Western Carolina heads to Champaign Tuesday night. Preview from Catamount Sports Blog here.

Scanning the SoCon- Week Five

Each week, twelve bloggers/message boarders (one representing each team) all will vote on a Game of the Week and Power Rankings. At least four will answer a series of questions on their team and around the SoCon. Don't forget to check back Monday through Friday to read Daily Dribbles from around the SoCon here on MocsMania.

CONTRIBUTORS

Appalachian State- Yosef's Cabin T-Dog
Chattanooga- Mocs Mania- JohnMoc
College of Charleston- King Kresse CougarSurf11
Davidson- Davidson Cats Message Board David Sink
Elon- Elon Pendulum Student Newspaper- Zachary Horner
Furman- The UFFP Message Board- Hawg
Georgia Southern- GSU Fans Message Board half-n-half
Samford- Samford Bulldogs Message Board AP
The Citadel- The Sports Arsenal- Sandlapper Spike
UNC-Greensboro- UNCG Basketball Fan DashSpartan
Western Carolina- Purple & Gold Jerry Love
Wofford- Terrier Fans Message Board

 

SCHEDULE

Tuesday

Samford at Kentucky
Dartmouth at Elon
The Citadel at Charleston Southern
Western Carolina at Illinois
Louisville at College of Charleston

Wednesday

Gardner-Webb at Wofford
Charlotte at Davidson

Saturday
Samford at Bowling Green
Appalachian State at Western Carolina
Brewton Parker at Georgia Southern
Eastern Kentucky at Chattanooga
Wofford at Davidson

SOCON MONSTER GAME OF THE WEEK

Charlotte at Davidson- 6 votes

Others Receiving Votes- Louisville at College of Charleston (5)

POWER RANKINGS

1) Davidson 131 (10)

2) College of Charleston 122 (1)

3) Elon 109

4) UNCG 90

5) Wofford 86

6) Western Caroloina 78

7) Chattanooga 59

8) Samford 49

9) Georgia Southern 42

10) The Citadel 41

11) Appalachian State 31

12) Furman 21

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team since the last time you wrote.

Appalachian State- Oh the humanity. Mike Neal is out until mid-December with academics issues so Chris Burgess has been thrust into the PG role. He is nowhere near Neal’s level. ASU started out their Division I schedule by being blown out at home by High Point. Then they went on the road and got blown out by Campbell. The next two games at ECU and VT were better performances, but the team can’t close out games. Then it looked like the team completely regressed in the first half at home this past Wednesday against Duquesne, but then came back and made it a game, but fell in the end 73-72 to fall to 0-5 in DI play. Then on Saturday the Apps fell at Mizzou 72-56 despite a 29-point effort from Canty. One good thing about these last four games is that ASU has beaten the spread each time. This team doesn’t play good defense and gives up way too many open looks. And then when other teams get on their inevitable runs, they regress to taking transitional jumpers that rarely work so when it rains, it pours. Right now fans should hold off buying pitchforks and torches because they could be a completely different team when Neal returns. One other good thing is that something finally clicked for Okam in the second half against Duquesne and looked light years ahead of what he’s been. Canty is as good as advertised, but he can only do so much. At this point, anywhere between 4-14 and 10-8 in the SoCon wouldn’t surprise me. We'll definitely beat some SoCon teams we shouldn't.

Chattanooga- The Mocs got pounded by Davidson this week. The Mocs continue to be a solid rebounding team, but they are a bad offensive team right now. They have got to start playing more efficiently on the offensive side of the ball. Until they do, they will be an average team at best.

 

College of Charleston- After stumbling out of the gates in the Charleston Classic the Cougars have rattled off three straight road victories against some very solid teams. First was the upset of a ranked Baylor team, then a victory against city rival Charleston Southern (who is in the running for a Big South championship) and yesterday’s defeat of the North division-leading Elon Phoenix. This is all being done without starting power forward Trent Wiedeman. In his absence Willis Hall has really stepped up to the plate. Hall, who missed all of last season with an ACL injury, scored the final seven points of the game to ice the victory in Waco and posted a 19 and 12 double-double against Elon. Adjehi Baru as well has developed nice chemistry with Hall and is showing us a lot more offensively to go with stellar defense and rebounding. A very vulnerable Louisville team is the next test for the Cougars as they return to TD Arena Tuesday.

UNCG- If I would have wrote this on Friday night, it would be completely different than what I am writing tonight. UNCG has played well against BCS conference opponents at home in the past 2 weeks. Falling just short against Virginia Tech and Rutgers. Most Spartan fans assumed they would be able to handle cross town rival NC A&T on Wednesday night. However, the Aggies always seem ready for this game and they thoroughly dominated the Spartans (regardless on it only being an 11 point loss). However, the Spartans turned around and utterly destroyed the Citadel Bulldogs just 3 days later. It is all about defense for the Spartans. They looked lost all night against A&T and brought a lot of intensity against the Citadel. Personally, I think UNCG is a lot better than their record. They just have to bring the defensive energy every night. The Spartans are now off for 15 days before playing road games against lower tier CAA teams (JMU & UNCW).

Which division do you believe is going to finish with more wins against the other division- the North or the South?

Appalachian State- The South as Davidson and CofC will likely finish somewhere between 16-0 and 12-4 against the North. GSU will likely finish with a winning record against the North, Wofford is a toss-up and despite Furman and El Cit, the final tally IMO will be around 26-22 for the South.

Chattanooga- I’m not sure, because the way I see it, both Davidson and Charleston are likely to win almost all of their games against the North. I’ll project those two to combine to go 14-2 against the North. That means that in the remaining 32 games, the North would have to go 23-9 against the South to beat them outright. That’s an awfully big leap for the North to make. I don’t think they can go that far, but I do believe that the North will have a winning record against the remainder of the South.  I’m taking the South overall, but I am a big believer in the North being closer than previously believed.

College of Charleston- It’s hard to say. Davidson and College of Charleston will get a lot of victories over division opponents but after that the South is pretty weak. The North meanwhile is so cluttered. Elon passes the eye test but I think any of those teams have a chance to rack up SoCon victories. If I had to choose I’ll go with recent history and say the South by a small margin.

UNCG- I think the south will, eventually. Their top 2 teams are better than the entire north division. However, their bottom 3 teams might be worse than anyone in the league. So, it'll be close.

Which coach around the conference do you believe is on the hottest seat?

Appalachian State- I honestly thought John Shulman was gone after last season where UTC
finished last in the North. Right now, I think it’s between Jeff Jackson and Jason Capel. Jackson is in his seventh year at Furman and with the results badly regressing, he needs a good showing for the rest of the year. With Capel, he’s in the third year of a four-year deal so he very much needs to show results when Neal returns for conference play. If ASU wins single-digit games, then I think a change will have to be made. CharltonYoung is fine right now as he’s coming off a good season, but the Samford loss will make the chorus louder.

Chattanooga- As I read the message boards, I’ve decided that it is probably Jeff Jackson at Furman. The Paladins fan base is agitated and angry. They seem to be angrier than any other fan base at their coach right now. They want him gone. I don’t know if Furman has the money to get rid of him, but I don’t see how they keep him based on what everyone seems to be saying.

College of Charleston- I thought for sure John Shulman was getting canned last year. Now he’s got the excuse of youth and potential on his side (and he has a point), so I think Chattanooga will let things play out. I think Charlton Young has until his big recruiting class graduates. That leaves App and Furman. Both teams look terrible. Jason Capel seems to pull some victories out late in the season; I’ll go with Coach Jeff Jackson up at Furman.

UNCG- Jason Capel's seat seems the hottest. They are really struggling and can't even get anyone to show up to watch them play. Their fan base was split on the hire in the first place and hindsight being 20/20, I think most wish they had went with Matt McMahon.

We all look at boxscores of basketball games. What stat/stats do you look at first? What do you think those stats tell you about the game?

Appalachian State- Field goal percentage and turnovers. Mainly because turnovers have
been a big issue for ASU over the years and we’ve been given up some
gaudy FG% numbers this year.

Chattanooga- There are two things I look at first. One is rebounding for both teams. I am always curious as to who rebounds better, because generally that shows effort and hard work. That tells a lot about which team is going to win. The other stat is turnovers. If a team gets a lot more possessions than the other team and wins the rebounding battle, then that team normally wins the game.

College of Charleston- I usually look at FG% from both teams, rebounds and assist-to-turnovers first. I think those stats in combination can give you the best idea of how the game went.

UNCG- Two stats, (1) Free throws attempted - I think you can tell who was the most aggressive team based almost solely on that stat. If there is a huge discrepancy, you can guess the winner without seeing the score. (2) Turnovers - Huge discrepancy usually spells disaster for one team.

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Recap: College of Charleston 56, Elon 54

The game was back and forth and lived up to the billing of being the Game of the Week. It was a deeply intriguing game that ended with the Cougars surviving a late run by the Phoenix to win by two.

Willis Hall was the force in this game. He must have been mad that he got left out of the preview for the game or something, because he poured in 19 points with we rebounds. Adejhi Baru also came up with nine points and eight rebounds.

Austin Hamilton and Sebastion Koch did not shoot well, and that spelled doom for the Phoenix. Jack Isenbarger and Lucas Troutman just combined for 21 points. But the Phoenix, when they shoot 34% from the field and 24% from three point range, are not going to win too many games.

The Phoenix and the Cougars proved that they are the two teams right behind Davidson in the SoCon pecking order. Barring injury or drastic changes, it looks like those three will get byes in the SoCon Tournament, and the fourth bye is the one up for grabs. Elon and College of Charleston have earned that kind of respect now. This game helped to establish both of them as those teams.

The Cougars are better than the Phoenix right now. There's no mistaking that after that game. But the Phoenix are the best team in the North. They have also established that at this point.

The Phoenix have to shoot the ball better to win. There's no reason to think the Phoenix won't be hanging around the SoCon race all the way to the end. We already knew that about the Cougars. They will hang around to the very end. When they get Trent Wiedeman back from injury, they will be that much better.

Davidson 81, Mocs 55

The Mocs effort was still there. The turnovers were cut down.

That's the positives to take from this game.

Davidson made 48% of their threes and 48% from the floor. This made their eFG% be through the roof for the game.

But that is what Davidson does. They are very efficient on offense. They work the ball around and get off good shots, and they make them. That's what makes them such a dangerous team. They are so good on offense, that they make up for all of their deficiencies on defense.

The Mocs were not good enough on offense last night to make Davidson pay for their defensive deficiencies. The cold shooting Mocs made just 30% of their shots. They were not shooting a ton of threes either (just 24% of their shots were threes). Gee McGhee struggled from the floor, but lead the team with 15 points.

McGhee still looked like a player with a bright future. The Mocs tried to pound the ball inside, and Z Mason scored 14 points.

So if this game was a measuring stick game, the Mocs got beat with the measuring stick. But this isn't too surprising. After all, the Mocs are very young right now. They will not face Davidson again between now and March. So there is plenty of time for the Mocs to get better before they have to face the SoCon's best team again.

The effort was there (the Mocs rebounding percentages were still good, despite the fact that the Mocs finished tied in rebounds for the game with the Wildcats). The turnovers were down. The Mocs committed just twelve. Davidson did put some token pressure on them at various points in the game. The Mocs handled it much better than they did earlier this year.

This is all good for the Mocs. But basic offense is not a strong point for the Mocs at this point. Yes, Davidson was making a lot of shots. But the defense could have been better too. However, you can't expect too much different when you play Davidson than what we saw. What the Mocs need to hope for is better offense. After the improvements in turnovers in the week off last week, maybe the offensive sets will be better this week.

The Mocs take on Eastern Kentucky next Saturday. The Colonels are unbeaten so far this year, with a two point home win over Western Carolina yesterday. Should be a big game for the Mocs.

GO MOCS!

Davidson: Four Factors

eFG%
Davidson- 58.6%
Mocs- 33.0%
Advantage- Davidson

TO%
Davidson- 13.2%
Mocs- 18.0%
Advantage- Davidson

OR%
Davidson- 18.9%
Mocs- 28.6%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Davidson- 29.3%
Mocs- 70.0%
Advantage-Mocs

3PtRate
Davidson- 50.0%
Mocs- 24.0%

Battle of North vs. South- 12-1-12

Today's Scores

Davidson (S) 81
Chattanooga (N) 65

Georgia Southern (S) 48
Samford (N) 57

College of Charleston (S) 56
Elon (N) 54

The Citadel (S) 54
UNCG (N) 84

at North

North- 2
South- 2

at South

North- 2
South- 0

Overall

North- 4
South- 2

ANALYSIS

In games not involving College of Charleston and Davidson, the North is now 4-0 against the South.  What does this mean? It probably means that the Wildcats and Cougars are the two best teams. Everyone else is chasing them, but the North is probably superior to the South beyond that. At least to this point. UNCG, Samford, Elon, and Western Carolina came up with the four wins for the North. This is not exactly a slam dunk that this will continue, but which division would you say is better if the South has the two best teams, but the North is deeper? It's an interesting debate. One that we may get in to tomorrow in Scanning the SoCon.

Davidson Preview: A True Test

The Mocs play their biggest home game of the whole season (or at least the best team they are going to play at home this season) and it happens on the first day of December.

The Mocs are young and inexperienced. Where do they fit into the SoCon race? It's awfully early to really have a true measuring stick game, but this game against Davidson (the SoCon's best) is hard to call anything except for a measuring stick game for the Mocs. The Mocs will not be judged just on whether they win or lose, but how competitive they are in this game.

The names are familiar to people who follow the SoCon. Davidson has Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks, who each won one Player of the Year Award a year ago. Cohen has been struggling this year, but looked much better in Orlando in the Old Spice Classic. He is averaging 11.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. Cohen is still very good, despite his early season struggles.

Brooks has been even better. He is averaging 17.2 points per game while coming up with 5.7 rebounds per game. He is shooting 47% from the field and nearly 89% from the free throw line. Brooks has become the unquestioned leader on this team. Preseason there was plenty of question about who was better between Cohen and Brooks. Through six games, there is no debate.

JP Kuhlman was injured in the Wisconsin-Milwaukee game with an ankle injury. He played limited minutes against Gonzaga, and did not practice again until later on in the week. It is unclear whether he will play at full capacity against the Mocs.

No matter. Tyler Kalinoski may be even better. He is a better defender, and is averaging 8.2 points per game. Nik Cochran is averaging 7.8 points and 3.5 assists per game.

Of course, you can't talk about Davidson without talking about Chris Czerapowicz at this point. He is shooting nearly 52% from three point range. He is averaging 10.5 points per game. He is the Wildcats most dangerous shooter.

The Mocs have been one of the better rebounding teams in the country so far, ranking in the Top 22 on both ends of the court in rebounding percentage according to Pomeroy. Davidson, on the other hand, ranks below 232 on both ends. The Mocs will need to focus on rebounding, because they do have an edge there on this team.

Also, several of the Mocs, lead by Gee McGhee, have done a good job of breaking down defenses and getting to the basket. Davidson has a weakness in guarding these types of players at times.

The most important thing may be if the Z Men (Z Mason or Drazen Zlovaric) can do what they need to do on the inside. Also, how are the Mocs going to guard Cohen and Brooks? I'm not 100% sure if they have anyone that can match up with either one of those.

An interesting match-up is the Mocs three point percentage defense (which leads the SoCon, and is in the Top 85 in the country) is going against Czerapowicz and the Wildcats three point shooting (which is second in the SoCon and in the Top 80 in the country). Can the Mocs guard the three point line as well as they have been?

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs have not seen a team as physical as Davidson is. They will have to battle against them for everything.
--The Mocs will outrebound Davidson. It will be more challenging than the stats may appear to indicate it will be, but they will outrebound them.
--The Mocs will have to continue their frequent defensive changes to confuse the Wildcats offense. Davidson is very efficient offensively. It will take the Mocs best defensive effort yet.
--Turnovers are always critical. With the way the Mocs have been turning the ball over lately, they will need to force a bunch from Davidson too, which is something the Wildcats have not been doing much of.
--Davidson 73, Mocs 66. The Mocs are going to be up for this one. They are going to be fired up and ready to go out and show what they can do. The Mocs have played their best against the best teams on the schedule so far- at Kansas, and Louisiana Tech at home. Both of those were losses, though. The Kennesaw State win was also a road game. They seem to respond to a challenge. This is a challenge. Make no mistake. Brooks and Czerapowicz will be too much on the offensive end for the Mocs to handle, despite the fact that I expect Mason, Zlovaric, McGhee, Rico White and Farad Cobb to have solid performances for the Mocs.

GO MOCS!