FOUR FACTORS (plus two)
eFG%
Kennesaw State- 51.8%
Mocs- 45.5%
Advantage- Kennesaw State
TO%
Kennesaw State- 26.3%
Mocs- 21.9%
Advantage- Mocs
OR%
Kennesaw State- 24.2%
Mocs- 23.7%
Advantage- Kennesaw State
FTRate
Kennesaw State- 17.9%
Mocs- 27.3%
Advantage- Mocs
FT%
Kennesaw State- 70.0%
Mocs- 60.0%
Advantage- Kennesaw State
3PTRate
Kennesaw State- 42.9%
Mocs- 45.5%
PLAYER RATER
Overall
1. Omar Wattad 20.2
2. Drazen Zlovaric 19.4
3. Keegan Bell 18.0
4. Ricky Taylor 17.7
5. Chris Early 11.1
6. Jahmal Burroughs 7.6
7. Jared Bryant 6.4
8. Rico White 6.3
9. Lance Stokes 3.0
10. Z Mason 0.8
11. Dontay Hampton 0.3
Per 40
1. Drazen Zlovaric 29.8
2. Omar Wattad 28.9
3. Jared Bryant 28.4
4. Chris Early 26.0
5. Rico White 25.2
6. Ricky Taylor 23.5
7. Keegan Bell 20.6
8. Jahmal Burroughs 16.0
9. Lance Stokes 11.8
10. Z Mason 3.6
11. Dontay Hampton 1.4
ANALYSIS
Whew. I don't really even want to talk about this.
This is a terrible loss for the Mocs. They desperately needed to get on the positive side of the ledger, and they could not do it against a pretty average Kennesaw State team.
In the end, Markeith Cummings did play, and that was a bit of a shock to the Mocs. He ended up with 21 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals. He looked like the preseason Player of the Year in the Atlantic Sun.
What happened here? There are several things that are easy to point to.
First of all, the Mocs jumped out to a 14-5 lead, and I relaxed. I thought the Mocs had it in the bag. I didn't see how they would lose. They were the much better team.
And then they did. It was almost like they took their foot off the gas pedal a little bit. The Mocs looked disinterested for much of the remainder of the first half, and Kennesaw State raced out to a six point halftime lead.
Still, there was no reason to panic. Right? RIGHT? RIGHT??????
Wrong. The Owls started really knocking down shots early in the second half. The Mocs were not shooting well and started to fall behind.
Then the pressure started to mount. The Mocs started throwing up threes early in the shot clock. The Owls gained confidence. They started running the shot clock down to zero, and then knocking down shots.
When that happens, upsets happen. That is exactly what happened on Friday night.
If you look at the Four Factors (plus two), the Mocs did not turn the ball over much, and they got to the free throw line more often than the Owls. But the Mocs made a worse percentage from the free throw line and they were shot out of the gym by one of the worst shooting teams in the country. The Mocs shot about 45% of their shots from three point range. They have to get the ball inside more than that.
I was disappointed in Wattad's play, but thought that Zlovaric played fairly well. He was the best player for the Mocs, I believe in this one.
The numbers don't show that Early is struggling. He looks like he is playing fairly well. But he does not seem to be active enough for the Mocs on either end of the floor. He seems to be creeping into Shulman's doghouse. He played just 17 minutes, whereas Burroughs played 19.
This is a strange loss. I wanted desperately for the Mocs to become a more consistent team this year. But this game proves, once again, that the Mocs can lose to anyone.
So, the game that I listed as the most important of the month has now turned into a loss. The Mocs have to get back on the winning track. They could afford (kind of) one loss on this four game homestand. They must win these last three home games.
The Mocs need to get better- and fast. This was a thoroughly depressing loss. The Mocs have to get on track against Warren Wilson Monday night, and then really need a solid showing next Friday against Savannah State and Sunday against Gardner-Webb.
GO MOCS!
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Friday, November 18, 2011
Double Dribbles-11-18-11
1) Furman's loss at home to Mercer was not even close. Maybe the Paladins have not turned the corner that they appeared to have turned when they beat Columbia. Western Carolina's win over Presbyterian is a very nice road win for the SoCon. However, UNCG's lacksadaisical win over UNC-Pembroke speaks very poorly of the Spartans. The Spartans continued to struggle. They need to play much better in Nashville this weekend.
2) Coach K won game 903 earlier this week. Now Duke hosts Davidson. Duke could come out a little bit flat. The Blue Devils may not be up after the emotion of this week's win over Michigan State. They need to be ready in order to beat Davidson. The Wildcats are probably not good enough to win in Cameron on the average day, but if they can catch Duke a little bit down and play really well, Davidson could pull off the upset. It should be an interesting game on ESPNU at 6:00 PM.
2) Coach K won game 903 earlier this week. Now Duke hosts Davidson. Duke could come out a little bit flat. The Blue Devils may not be up after the emotion of this week's win over Michigan State. They need to be ready in order to beat Davidson. The Wildcats are probably not good enough to win in Cameron on the average day, but if they can catch Duke a little bit down and play really well, Davidson could pull off the upset. It should be an interesting game on ESPNU at 6:00 PM.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Kennesaw State Preview: Momentum
Time: 7:00
Line:
TV: None (MocsVision)
This was the game that I picked back in the November preview as the biggest game of the month. Why did I do it? Because if the Mocs came into this game 0-2, they really needed to come up with a win just to start gaining confidence and momentum as they started this four game homestand. They desperately needed to come up with a win to keep the negativity around the program at a minimum.
So, this game is huge.
Kennesaw State has struggled badly on the offensive end so far. They were destroyed by Wisconsin and then lost by 13 against Auburn. They rank 342nd in scoring, 339th in rebounding, 341st in assists, and 340th in field goal percentage out of 345 teams. Then again, playing Wisconsin will do that to a team's stats. By contrast, the Mocs are 335th in scoring and 332nd in field goal percentage. Not good. They are 143rd in rebounding and 254th in assists. In other words, they are slightly better offensively.
Kennesaw State will be without Markeith Cummings, the preseason Atlantic Sun Player of the Year. He is out due to conduct detrimental to the team. There is a belief among several Owl fans that believe that the offense actually runs better without Cummings, who they believe required the ball too much of the time.
So how does Kennesaw State respond without Cummings? This is their second game without him. Spencer Dixon, another player that shoots the ball a lot, is the team's leading remaining scorer, averaging nine points per game right now, and 36.5 minutes per game. Dixon is shooting just 18.8% from the field, though. Aaron Anderson may be the team's best player. He is averaging 7.5 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game. He is shooting 46.7% from the floor. He is 6-7, 215.
Andrew Osemhen is the tallest player for the Owls. He is 6-9. He plays just 15.5 minutes per game, and has made his one field goal attempt of the season, along with just two rebounds. In other words, he has been a non-factor on the offensive end, but he has come up with two blocks and played decent defense.
Nick Turner has made 2 of 8 from three point range on the year. Delbert Love has seven steals already, which is very impressive. Romain Henry started in Cummings place against Auburn, but remained a virtual non-factor offensively.
The scoring went to Anderson, Turner, and Dixon without Cummings. They will need Dixon (who had a great night against Georgia Tech a year ago) and Turner to start shooting the ball better, and will need Anderson to have a big game on the inside. Love, the freshman point guard, will need to show solid composure in this game and make good decisions.
Keegan Bell's match-up with Love should be entertaining. Love has been a bright spot, but the young gun will have to match the senior Bell's play for the Owls to have a real shot here. On top of that, Anderson and his match-up with Drazen Zlovaric will be important. Zlovaric has not really proven yet that he can be a major impact in a game, though he has played well in both games.
Omar Wattad and Dixon may get into a three point shooting contest, though. Both love to throw up the long range shots. Dixon is really struggling so far, though. Both players like to shoot and have been able to light it up if they get going.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs need to dominate the boards against the team that ranks 339th in the country in rebounding. The Mocs were a good rebounding team a year ago, but struggled at times against teams that weren't great rebounding teams. They need to control the boards against this team that they should control the boards against.
--Shooting. Both teams are really struggling shooting right now. REALLY struggling. The team that gets a little warm shooting the ball should be able to find a way to win.
--Controlled offense. The Mocs offense was under control and working inside-out against Butler on Tuesday night. They need to continue to show that kind of composure on the offensive end and not start taking shots too quickly.
--Bell vs. Love. This is an interesting match-up, and Bell, as a senior, needs to control the match-up.
--Chris Early needs to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor. He should be able to have a big game. If he does not, then that should mean that Zlovaric is having a big game, which is just as good from the Mocs standpoint. They need to control Anderson on the defensive end.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Dixon will raise his field goal percentage. Then again, that shouldn't be too hard, considering his currently shooting just under 19%.
--The Mocs will dominate inside, even though Anderson will have his moments.
--The Mocs will come out and play inspired basketball.
--Mocs 72, Kenessaw State 54. The Mocs will come out fired up and shoot the ball much better, showing off some of the shooting we saw against Tennessee Wesleyan. Rico White will have a good game, as will Wattad, Early, Taylor, and Bell. Zlovaric will also play well. In other words, this will be an all around good performance. With no one player to take the Mocs focus away, they will play solid defense and keep Kenessaw State struggling from the field. The Mocs put on a performance that gets the home fans excited about the coming season.
GO MOCS!
Line:
TV: None (MocsVision)
This was the game that I picked back in the November preview as the biggest game of the month. Why did I do it? Because if the Mocs came into this game 0-2, they really needed to come up with a win just to start gaining confidence and momentum as they started this four game homestand. They desperately needed to come up with a win to keep the negativity around the program at a minimum.
So, this game is huge.
Kennesaw State has struggled badly on the offensive end so far. They were destroyed by Wisconsin and then lost by 13 against Auburn. They rank 342nd in scoring, 339th in rebounding, 341st in assists, and 340th in field goal percentage out of 345 teams. Then again, playing Wisconsin will do that to a team's stats. By contrast, the Mocs are 335th in scoring and 332nd in field goal percentage. Not good. They are 143rd in rebounding and 254th in assists. In other words, they are slightly better offensively.
Kennesaw State will be without Markeith Cummings, the preseason Atlantic Sun Player of the Year. He is out due to conduct detrimental to the team. There is a belief among several Owl fans that believe that the offense actually runs better without Cummings, who they believe required the ball too much of the time.
So how does Kennesaw State respond without Cummings? This is their second game without him. Spencer Dixon, another player that shoots the ball a lot, is the team's leading remaining scorer, averaging nine points per game right now, and 36.5 minutes per game. Dixon is shooting just 18.8% from the field, though. Aaron Anderson may be the team's best player. He is averaging 7.5 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game. He is shooting 46.7% from the floor. He is 6-7, 215.
Andrew Osemhen is the tallest player for the Owls. He is 6-9. He plays just 15.5 minutes per game, and has made his one field goal attempt of the season, along with just two rebounds. In other words, he has been a non-factor on the offensive end, but he has come up with two blocks and played decent defense.
Nick Turner has made 2 of 8 from three point range on the year. Delbert Love has seven steals already, which is very impressive. Romain Henry started in Cummings place against Auburn, but remained a virtual non-factor offensively.
The scoring went to Anderson, Turner, and Dixon without Cummings. They will need Dixon (who had a great night against Georgia Tech a year ago) and Turner to start shooting the ball better, and will need Anderson to have a big game on the inside. Love, the freshman point guard, will need to show solid composure in this game and make good decisions.
Keegan Bell's match-up with Love should be entertaining. Love has been a bright spot, but the young gun will have to match the senior Bell's play for the Owls to have a real shot here. On top of that, Anderson and his match-up with Drazen Zlovaric will be important. Zlovaric has not really proven yet that he can be a major impact in a game, though he has played well in both games.
Omar Wattad and Dixon may get into a three point shooting contest, though. Both love to throw up the long range shots. Dixon is really struggling so far, though. Both players like to shoot and have been able to light it up if they get going.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs need to dominate the boards against the team that ranks 339th in the country in rebounding. The Mocs were a good rebounding team a year ago, but struggled at times against teams that weren't great rebounding teams. They need to control the boards against this team that they should control the boards against.
--Shooting. Both teams are really struggling shooting right now. REALLY struggling. The team that gets a little warm shooting the ball should be able to find a way to win.
--Controlled offense. The Mocs offense was under control and working inside-out against Butler on Tuesday night. They need to continue to show that kind of composure on the offensive end and not start taking shots too quickly.
--Bell vs. Love. This is an interesting match-up, and Bell, as a senior, needs to control the match-up.
--Chris Early needs to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor. He should be able to have a big game. If he does not, then that should mean that Zlovaric is having a big game, which is just as good from the Mocs standpoint. They need to control Anderson on the defensive end.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Dixon will raise his field goal percentage. Then again, that shouldn't be too hard, considering his currently shooting just under 19%.
--The Mocs will dominate inside, even though Anderson will have his moments.
--The Mocs will come out and play inspired basketball.
--Mocs 72, Kenessaw State 54. The Mocs will come out fired up and shoot the ball much better, showing off some of the shooting we saw against Tennessee Wesleyan. Rico White will have a good game, as will Wattad, Early, Taylor, and Bell. Zlovaric will also play well. In other words, this will be an all around good performance. With no one player to take the Mocs focus away, they will play solid defense and keep Kenessaw State struggling from the field. The Mocs put on a performance that gets the home fans excited about the coming season.
GO MOCS!
Double Dribbles-11-17-11
1) Larry Hunter collected win number 600 Tuesday night as Western Carolina beat Montreat. While the game was never in doubt, it is still a nice round number for Hunter. Coach K at Duke got to 903 on the same night, and clearly overshadowed Hunter (which would have happened nationally no matter what), but Hunter should be appreciated for winning 600 games. He's got a 64.9 winning percentage, which is not bad. Only 90 of those wins come at Western Carolina. Hunter should reach 100 career wins at Western Carolina at some point this year, joining Bob McKillop, Bobby Cremins, Jimmy Tillette, Mike Dement, Mike Young, and John Shulman as the coaches in the conference with 100 wins at their current school.
2) Georgia Southern looked a little bit better in losing to Wake Forest by nine points last night. The Eagles dropped to 0-2 and their undoing was their 22 turnovers. Willie Powers was supposed to help the Eagles numerous turnover problems. He turned the ball over four times against the Demon Deacons. The Citadel was much worse at home against an ACC opponent, getting hammered by Clemson. The Tigers were way ahead before The Citadel closed the gap to 23 at the end. So, all in all, not a good set of games for the SoCon. Good news for Georgia Southern- they looked much more like the team people picked to finish third in the South than the team that couldn't get out of the SoCon basement last year.
2) Georgia Southern looked a little bit better in losing to Wake Forest by nine points last night. The Eagles dropped to 0-2 and their undoing was their 22 turnovers. Willie Powers was supposed to help the Eagles numerous turnover problems. He turned the ball over four times against the Demon Deacons. The Citadel was much worse at home against an ACC opponent, getting hammered by Clemson. The Tigers were way ahead before The Citadel closed the gap to 23 at the end. So, all in all, not a good set of games for the SoCon. Good news for Georgia Southern- they looked much more like the team people picked to finish third in the South than the team that couldn't get out of the SoCon basement last year.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
"Three Weeks From Now....."
Indiana coach Tom Crean told John Shulman after the Hoosiers win over the Mocs that in three weeks, he would not want to face the Mocs because they would be a darn good team.
That was last Sunday night. Three weeks from then would be December 4. That's the day after the trip to College of Charleston and three days after the trip to Georgia Southern. In other words, three weeks is just after one of the most important road trips of the year. The Mocs desperately need a split on that road trip.
So the big question really is if that was really just coach speak or if there is some fact in it. Let's try to look at it factually.
The Mocs should be able to be pretty good right out of the gate this year. They return four senior starters, and their fifth starter (while in his first year playing) has been in the program for a year. So this is a team that should be used to playing with each other and able to roll right out of the gate.
But at the same time, the Mocs are playing a completely different offense this year. They are playing a much more deliberate offense, with a much better pace and rhythm. They haven't shot the ball well yet, but the pace is better for the Mocs for sure. They are struggling to find shots coming out of the new offense. Plus, all the other parts are new parts. They have a lot of freshman and Mason is there as a transfer. So all the parts outside of the starting five (and Burroughs) are new and not really working together yet.
The Mocs will learn to protect the ball better the further into the season we get. The Mocs will grow in confidence as they get into games they can win and should start making more shots, especially the freshman. So, the fact is that the team should be much better once they face a couple of easier teams, get their legs under them and gain some confidence.
Enter the four game home stretch that is coming up. Not to take anything away from our opponents, but Kennesaw State, Warren Wilson College, Savannah State and Gardner Webb are not exactly the most threatening opponents on the schedule. If the Mocs win all four of those, then they could grow in confidence by leaps and bounds. That would send them into the critical two game road swing to open SoCon play on a high note.
The Mocs have to gain confidence in these next two weeks. Two weeks from tomorrow, they will be battling Georgia Southern on the road in a huge game. They need to be playing near the top of their game by then.
Let's hope that Crean was right. No one will want to play the Mocs in three weeks....but let's make it two for good measure...
GO MOCS!
That was last Sunday night. Three weeks from then would be December 4. That's the day after the trip to College of Charleston and three days after the trip to Georgia Southern. In other words, three weeks is just after one of the most important road trips of the year. The Mocs desperately need a split on that road trip.
So the big question really is if that was really just coach speak or if there is some fact in it. Let's try to look at it factually.
The Mocs should be able to be pretty good right out of the gate this year. They return four senior starters, and their fifth starter (while in his first year playing) has been in the program for a year. So this is a team that should be used to playing with each other and able to roll right out of the gate.
But at the same time, the Mocs are playing a completely different offense this year. They are playing a much more deliberate offense, with a much better pace and rhythm. They haven't shot the ball well yet, but the pace is better for the Mocs for sure. They are struggling to find shots coming out of the new offense. Plus, all the other parts are new parts. They have a lot of freshman and Mason is there as a transfer. So all the parts outside of the starting five (and Burroughs) are new and not really working together yet.
The Mocs will learn to protect the ball better the further into the season we get. The Mocs will grow in confidence as they get into games they can win and should start making more shots, especially the freshman. So, the fact is that the team should be much better once they face a couple of easier teams, get their legs under them and gain some confidence.
Enter the four game home stretch that is coming up. Not to take anything away from our opponents, but Kennesaw State, Warren Wilson College, Savannah State and Gardner Webb are not exactly the most threatening opponents on the schedule. If the Mocs win all four of those, then they could grow in confidence by leaps and bounds. That would send them into the critical two game road swing to open SoCon play on a high note.
The Mocs have to gain confidence in these next two weeks. Two weeks from tomorrow, they will be battling Georgia Southern on the road in a huge game. They need to be playing near the top of their game by then.
Let's hope that Crean was right. No one will want to play the Mocs in three weeks....but let's make it two for good measure...
GO MOCS!
Rankings: RPI, KenPom
RPI (according to live-rpi)
1) Davidson 11
2) Elon 12
3) Wofford 61
4) College of Charleston 156
5) Furman 183
6) The Citadel 224
7) Chattanooga 244
8) UNC-Greensboro 257
9) Appalachian State 286
10) Georgia Southern 289
11) Samford 330
12) Western Carolina 344
SoCon Rank: 20
Sagarin Rankings
1) Davidson 87
2) College of Charleston 89
3) Wofford 132
4) Furman 167
5) Appalachian State 193
6) Elon 194
7) Western Carolina 230
8) Chattanooga 250
9) The Citadel 264
10) UNC-Greensboro 283
11) Samford 300
12) Georgia Southern 318
SoCon Rank: 20
Pomeroy Rankings
1) Davidson 87
2) College of Charleston 133
3) Wofford 200
4) Appalachian State 201
5) Elon 215
6) Western Carolina 220
7) Furman 233
8) Chattanooga 237
9) UNC-Greensboro 273
10) The Citadel 278
11) Samford 291
12) Georgia Southern 292
ANALYSIS
Way too early for this. The RPI is the only one based entirely on this year at this point. What can be seen is that Davidson and College of Charleston are off to good starts, and Elon's win has earned a lot of points for them in the RPI. The Western Carolina loss to a team that then turned around and lost to Elon has not earned it a lot of points in the RPI.
This update will come out every Wednesday during the non-conference portion of the schedule, and every Friday and Sunday during the SoCon schedule.
1) Davidson 11
2) Elon 12
3) Wofford 61
4) College of Charleston 156
5) Furman 183
6) The Citadel 224
7) Chattanooga 244
8) UNC-Greensboro 257
9) Appalachian State 286
10) Georgia Southern 289
11) Samford 330
12) Western Carolina 344
SoCon Rank: 20
Sagarin Rankings
1) Davidson 87
2) College of Charleston 89
3) Wofford 132
4) Furman 167
5) Appalachian State 193
6) Elon 194
7) Western Carolina 230
8) Chattanooga 250
9) The Citadel 264
10) UNC-Greensboro 283
11) Samford 300
12) Georgia Southern 318
SoCon Rank: 20
Pomeroy Rankings
1) Davidson 87
2) College of Charleston 133
3) Wofford 200
4) Appalachian State 201
5) Elon 215
6) Western Carolina 220
7) Furman 233
8) Chattanooga 237
9) UNC-Greensboro 273
10) The Citadel 278
11) Samford 291
12) Georgia Southern 292
ANALYSIS
Way too early for this. The RPI is the only one based entirely on this year at this point. What can be seen is that Davidson and College of Charleston are off to good starts, and Elon's win has earned a lot of points for them in the RPI. The Western Carolina loss to a team that then turned around and lost to Elon has not earned it a lot of points in the RPI.
This update will come out every Wednesday during the non-conference portion of the schedule, and every Friday and Sunday during the SoCon schedule.
GerVaughn McGee Signs National Letter of Intent
Lost in all the talk of yesterday's showdown with Butler is that GerVaughn McGee became the third to sign with the Mocs during the early signing period.
The wing is a shooter. He has a solid mid-range game, but can step back and knock down the three. Someone mentioned that his physique reminded him of Kevin Goffney, and when you look at him, that makes a lot of sense.
McGee has potential to be a solid contributor when he comes up. He visited with Casey Jones, who remains committed to the Mocs but says he is not going to sign during the early signing period.
According to reports, he is athletic, can really jump, and can take over the game without forcing the issue. This is a nice addition to the team next year. He is from Louisiana, and should be considered a force in the coming years.
This is another nice signee for the Mocs as they have put together a good early signing class.
GO MOCS!
The wing is a shooter. He has a solid mid-range game, but can step back and knock down the three. Someone mentioned that his physique reminded him of Kevin Goffney, and when you look at him, that makes a lot of sense.
McGee has potential to be a solid contributor when he comes up. He visited with Casey Jones, who remains committed to the Mocs but says he is not going to sign during the early signing period.
According to reports, he is athletic, can really jump, and can take over the game without forcing the issue. This is a nice addition to the team next year. He is from Louisiana, and should be considered a force in the coming years.
This is another nice signee for the Mocs as they have put together a good early signing class.
GO MOCS!
Double Dribbles-11-16-11
1) The SoCon had a solid night on Tuesday night. Western Carolina's win over Montreat was expected. Always good not to lose to non-D1s on the schedule. College of Charleston won on national TV at 8 AM over Morehead State, and Elon pulled off the stunner over South Carolina at home. The Mocs loss at Butler was respectable. That's a solid 3-1, 2-1 vs. D1 teams, and all of them were decent D1 teams. This is the sort of night that can help the SoCon in the long haul. Can Elon's win over South Carolina carry weight down the road for the Phoenix? Maybe. That's a good one.
2) Mike Groselle from The Citadel was named the SoCon Player of the Week. Groselle wound up wtih 41 points and 21 rebounds in the All Military Classic. That is an average of 20.5 points and 10.5 rebounds. Groselle has recorded three straight double-doubles dating back to last year's SoCon Tournament. He is going to be one of the top players in the SoCon this year, and the Bulldogs are relying heavily on Groselle. He is going to be huge if the Bulldogs are going to contend in the SoCon South.
2) Mike Groselle from The Citadel was named the SoCon Player of the Week. Groselle wound up wtih 41 points and 21 rebounds in the All Military Classic. That is an average of 20.5 points and 10.5 rebounds. Groselle has recorded three straight double-doubles dating back to last year's SoCon Tournament. He is going to be one of the top players in the SoCon this year, and the Bulldogs are relying heavily on Groselle. He is going to be huge if the Bulldogs are going to contend in the SoCon South.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Butler 57, Mocs 46
FOUR FACTORS (plus two)
eFG%
Mocs- 38.6%
Butler- 42.6%
Advantage- Butler
TO%
Mocs- 25.2%
Butler- 16.8%
Advantage- Butler
OR%
Mocs- 24.1%
Butler- 33.3%
Advantage- Butler
FTRate
Mocs- 43.2%
Butler- 35.2%
Advantage- Mocs
FT%
Mocs- 63.2%
Butler- 57.9%
Advantage- Mocs
3PTRate
Mocs- 31.8%
Butler- 40.7%
PLAYER RATER
Overall
1) Ricky Taylor 19.4
2) Drazen Zlovaric 16.8
3) Keegan Bell 12.7
4) Omar Wattad 11.7
5) Chris Early 10.1
6) Lance Stokes 1.5
7) Z Mason 1.3
8) Jahmal Burroughs 1.1
9) Dontay Hampton 1.0
10) Rico White 0.2
11) Jared Bryant -0.8
Per 40 Minutes
1) Chris Early 28.9
2) Ricky Taylor 25.0
3) Drazen Zlovaric 19.8
4) Keegan Bell 15.4
5) Omar Wattad 13.8
6) Lance Stokes 8.3
7) Dontay Hampton 5.7
8) Z Mason 5.2
9) Jahmal Burroughs 2.3
10) Rico White 0.9
11) Jared Bryant -16.0
ANALYSIS
Someone please let me know when the offense decides to join the 2011-12 season.
The offense shot over 42% in the first half, but then shot under 28% in the second half, including not making a field goal in the final fourteen minutes. That comes out to 36.4% shooting for the game.
So far, the offense has not been able to find a way to get going. They have really struggled shooting through two games. The good news is that the turnovers were way down. They committed just fifteen turnovers, and when compared to the first game, the TO% also dorpped drastically, which was huge considering that they were going against a much more physical defense. However, the Mocs also did not rebound anywhere near as well. They were only outrebounded by three, which is not bad considering they were playing against a big, physical Butler team, but they needed to win the rebounding battle to win this game.
The strange thing to people who follow the Mocs closely? They really succeeded at the FIRE defense. They doubled down on Andrew Smith a lot, and were able to get back on the shooters for Butler quickly, holding them to 27.3% shooting from three point range. They also played a lot of full court pressure defense and trap defense. This forced Butler to run their offense more quickly than they were comfortable with. The Mocs really played a very good defensive game. Smith wound up with 16 points and ten rebounds, while Chrishawn Hopkins ended up with 12 points.
Chase Stigall really struggled from three point range, going 0 for 6 from three point range. Then, with time winding down, Stigall hit a huge three that basically put the game away for the Bulldogs. He kept on shooting, and Stigall wound up showing that the Bulldogs still have players that have competed in the national championship game back to back years. They have poise. The Mocs lack that poise at his point. They need to get that championship moxie at some point. That will have to come with wins.
Chris Early played really well, except for he fouled out. He showed that he can play with this level, but he just couldn't stay on the floor- only playing 14 minutes. Ricky Taylor also had a significantly better day, leading the Mocs in scoring. Drazen Zlovaric also had a good day. To me, Keegan Bell looks a little out of sync so far this year. He will need to start performing a little bit better for the Mocs to turn around their 0-2 start.
The Mocs are home for their next four games against Kennesaw State, Warren Wilson, Savannah State, and Gardner-Webb. They need to have a solid home stand. The Mocs should be eager to get back home, where hopefully they will be able to find some offensive rhythm.
A tough loss tonight, but the Mocs showed that they are a solid team that just needs to find themselves offensively. When they find their offense, they should be able to be highly successful.
GO MOCS!
eFG%
Mocs- 38.6%
Butler- 42.6%
Advantage- Butler
TO%
Mocs- 25.2%
Butler- 16.8%
Advantage- Butler
OR%
Mocs- 24.1%
Butler- 33.3%
Advantage- Butler
FTRate
Mocs- 43.2%
Butler- 35.2%
Advantage- Mocs
FT%
Mocs- 63.2%
Butler- 57.9%
Advantage- Mocs
3PTRate
Mocs- 31.8%
Butler- 40.7%
PLAYER RATER
Overall
1) Ricky Taylor 19.4
2) Drazen Zlovaric 16.8
3) Keegan Bell 12.7
4) Omar Wattad 11.7
5) Chris Early 10.1
6) Lance Stokes 1.5
7) Z Mason 1.3
8) Jahmal Burroughs 1.1
9) Dontay Hampton 1.0
10) Rico White 0.2
11) Jared Bryant -0.8
Per 40 Minutes
1) Chris Early 28.9
2) Ricky Taylor 25.0
3) Drazen Zlovaric 19.8
4) Keegan Bell 15.4
5) Omar Wattad 13.8
6) Lance Stokes 8.3
7) Dontay Hampton 5.7
8) Z Mason 5.2
9) Jahmal Burroughs 2.3
10) Rico White 0.9
11) Jared Bryant -16.0
ANALYSIS
Someone please let me know when the offense decides to join the 2011-12 season.
The offense shot over 42% in the first half, but then shot under 28% in the second half, including not making a field goal in the final fourteen minutes. That comes out to 36.4% shooting for the game.
So far, the offense has not been able to find a way to get going. They have really struggled shooting through two games. The good news is that the turnovers were way down. They committed just fifteen turnovers, and when compared to the first game, the TO% also dorpped drastically, which was huge considering that they were going against a much more physical defense. However, the Mocs also did not rebound anywhere near as well. They were only outrebounded by three, which is not bad considering they were playing against a big, physical Butler team, but they needed to win the rebounding battle to win this game.
The strange thing to people who follow the Mocs closely? They really succeeded at the FIRE defense. They doubled down on Andrew Smith a lot, and were able to get back on the shooters for Butler quickly, holding them to 27.3% shooting from three point range. They also played a lot of full court pressure defense and trap defense. This forced Butler to run their offense more quickly than they were comfortable with. The Mocs really played a very good defensive game. Smith wound up with 16 points and ten rebounds, while Chrishawn Hopkins ended up with 12 points.
Chase Stigall really struggled from three point range, going 0 for 6 from three point range. Then, with time winding down, Stigall hit a huge three that basically put the game away for the Bulldogs. He kept on shooting, and Stigall wound up showing that the Bulldogs still have players that have competed in the national championship game back to back years. They have poise. The Mocs lack that poise at his point. They need to get that championship moxie at some point. That will have to come with wins.
Chris Early played really well, except for he fouled out. He showed that he can play with this level, but he just couldn't stay on the floor- only playing 14 minutes. Ricky Taylor also had a significantly better day, leading the Mocs in scoring. Drazen Zlovaric also had a good day. To me, Keegan Bell looks a little out of sync so far this year. He will need to start performing a little bit better for the Mocs to turn around their 0-2 start.
The Mocs are home for their next four games against Kennesaw State, Warren Wilson, Savannah State, and Gardner-Webb. They need to have a solid home stand. The Mocs should be eager to get back home, where hopefully they will be able to find some offensive rhythm.
A tough loss tonight, but the Mocs showed that they are a solid team that just needs to find themselves offensively. When they find their offense, they should be able to be highly successful.
GO MOCS!
SoCon Monster Game of the Week Recap: Elon 58, South Carolina 53
The Phoenix pulled off the win over the SEC team. They did it without Jack Isenbarger, who missed the game with a shoulder injury. They did it by taking a commanding eleven point lead and holding on.
No South Carolina player was able to crack double digits. They only turned the ball over seven times, but shot 31% from the field and an unbelievable 3 of 27 (11%) from three point range. They also shot just 59% from the free throw line.
Elon outrebounded South Carolina and shot 40% from the floor. They actually played exactly the way I thought they would when I predicted the Phoenix win yesterday. Lucas Troutman finished with 16 points and five rebounds. Austin Hamilton wound up with twelve points. Brett Ervin scored nine points off the bench on 3 of 4 shooting from three point range.
Elon's physical style really disturbed the Gamecocks. Spradlin scored just six points, and the Phoenix were still able to win the game. This just proves that the Phoenix are becoming a complete team and are a real threat to win the entire North Division. They are good enough to win the North over Chattanooga, Western Carolina, and Appalachian State.
They will battle Princeton and North Carolina State in the next ten days. Can the Phoenix pull off a few more wins?
This was a great day for the Phoenix.
No South Carolina player was able to crack double digits. They only turned the ball over seven times, but shot 31% from the field and an unbelievable 3 of 27 (11%) from three point range. They also shot just 59% from the free throw line.
Elon outrebounded South Carolina and shot 40% from the floor. They actually played exactly the way I thought they would when I predicted the Phoenix win yesterday. Lucas Troutman finished with 16 points and five rebounds. Austin Hamilton wound up with twelve points. Brett Ervin scored nine points off the bench on 3 of 4 shooting from three point range.
Elon's physical style really disturbed the Gamecocks. Spradlin scored just six points, and the Phoenix were still able to win the game. This just proves that the Phoenix are becoming a complete team and are a real threat to win the entire North Division. They are good enough to win the North over Chattanooga, Western Carolina, and Appalachian State.
They will battle Princeton and North Carolina State in the next ten days. Can the Phoenix pull off a few more wins?
This was a great day for the Phoenix.
Double Dribbles-11-15-11
1) College of Charleston is battling Morehead State at 8 AM this morning on ESPN, as part of the 24 Hours of Basketball Tip-Off on ESPN. Some Cougar fans are grumbling about the early start time. Me? I love the idea. The 6 AM and 8 AM tip offs actually get some decent viewers. Take me for example. I'm likely to turn on the game as I get ready to go to work. I will not watch any of the 10 AM game. I will not watch any of the 2 PM game. But the 6 AM or the 8 AM game? Those fit right into my wheelhouse. This would be a good win for the Cougars against a good but rebuilding Morehead State team.
2) Davidson's win over Richmond and Furman's win over Columbia highlighted the 2-1 night for the SoCon. That's two solid showings for the conference. The Paladins win was the first road win for the conference on the season. Considering Furman was not expected to be that good, this was a very nice win for the Paladins. They are 2-0. Davidson also is 2-0 as they head to Cameron to take on Duke. They won over a team that advanced to the Sweet Sixteen last year. Great set of wins for the SoCon. We'll ignore UNCG's loss to Georgetown for now.....Hopefully the SoCon can build on it Tuesday, when CofC hosts Morehead State, Chattanooga goes to Butler, Western Carolina hosts Montreat, South Carolina goes to Elon, and Appalachian State heads off to ETSU.
2) Davidson's win over Richmond and Furman's win over Columbia highlighted the 2-1 night for the SoCon. That's two solid showings for the conference. The Paladins win was the first road win for the conference on the season. Considering Furman was not expected to be that good, this was a very nice win for the Paladins. They are 2-0. Davidson also is 2-0 as they head to Cameron to take on Duke. They won over a team that advanced to the Sweet Sixteen last year. Great set of wins for the SoCon. We'll ignore UNCG's loss to Georgetown for now.....Hopefully the SoCon can build on it Tuesday, when CofC hosts Morehead State, Chattanooga goes to Butler, Western Carolina hosts Montreat, South Carolina goes to Elon, and Appalachian State heads off to ETSU.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Butler Preview: Back-to-Back
Time: 7:00 PM
TV: None (locally in Indianapolis, also available for streaming on GoMocs.com)
Line: Butler -13.
Butler has been to back-to-back national championship games. Despite losing them both, they have become the poster child for what every mid-major program hopes to be. The Bulldogs have built up to the point that they are a respected name brand. Brad Stevens has been successful in every way imaginable.
A funny thing has happened through all of that success though. This year, the Bulldogs lost their exhibition game in a stunner, and then were upset by Evansville, 80-77 in overtime, on Saturday.
In other words, this is not your ever so slightly older brother's Butler.
Their offense has been sputtering a bit. Chrishawn Hopkins scored 22 against the Aces while Andrew Smith put in 21. No one else scored in double digits. Of course, those two combined to take 27 of the teams 58 shots. The rest of the team shot under 42 percent and scored just 34 points. They outrebounded Evansville, 31-27, lead by Smith's nine rebounds. They turned the ball over 18 times but forced 17 turnovers. Ronald Nored has 4 assists and three turnovers, while Hopkins had five assists and five turnovers.
Of course, the Bulldogs have nothing on the Mocs in terms of offensive ineffectiveness. The Mocs turned the ball over 25 times, and shot 27% from the field, including 18% in the second half. If Omar Wattad was taken away against the Hoosiers, no Moc would have even approached double figures. Two of the starters, Keegan Bell and Chris Early, did not even score, which is completely unacceptable.
The Mocs did completely dominate the boards against Indiana, which means they brought the effort. The shots simply were not falling. They also turned the ball over 25 times, which is not acceptable, either. If there is one thing you can count on from the Bulldogs, it is that they will bring toughness and defense. They held the Aces to 41% shooting. The Mocs will need to shoot much better than they did against Indiana to have a chance, and that may be asking too much.
Smith is 6-11, 239, which may prove too much for any Moc to handle. Z Mason was acceptable against Indiana. He is the widest body, but is not tall enough probably. Zlovaric played well, and will need produce more of the same.
Wattad and Bell will also need big games, and Ricky Taylor needs to shoot better. Wattad is a tremendous shooter. Bell is a good distributor but needs to be a scorer to help things out. Taylor needs to shoot much better. Rico White and Lance Stokes, and even Jared Bryant need to bring out good performances. Jahmal Burroughs also played really well against the Hoosiers, all things considered.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. If the Mocs can rebound as well against Butler as they did against Indiana, they should be able to hang around in the game.
--The Mocs need to not let Butler's physical style get to them. This will be good practice for Davidson and Elon. They need to not let it get into their heads.
--Zlovaric and the gang against Smith. The Mocs have to come up with a way to control the Butler big man. He is going to be a load for them to handle. He may be the toughest big man the Mocs face this year- unless UK develops an inside presence between now and when the Mocs play them.
--Bell. He has to control the tempo. He has to not turn the ball over, while keeping the Mocs in their offense. It would not hurt my feelings any if he decided to drop about 15-20 points, which is certainly not outside the realm of possibility.
--A surprise scorer. Someone needs to be a surprise scorer for the Mocs. It doesn't matter who. Just someone needs to come on to complement Wattad. Probably that needs to be someone other than Bell or Taylor as well, since they are the players expected to complement Wattad. Maybe something from someone like Rico White. That would be huge.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Bell and Early will both score SOME points in this game.
--Smith will score at least 25 points for Butler.
--Wattad will score plenty of points again.
--The Mocs will turn the ball over too many times in the end.
--Butler 65, Mocs 51. The Mocs will turn the ball over too much, but the defenses will dominate for both teams. Neither team will score well. The Bulldogs will find a way to win their home opener, but it won't be easy. The Mocs offense will look slightly better, but still will not be pretty. That's too much to overcome.
GO MOCS!
TV: None (locally in Indianapolis, also available for streaming on GoMocs.com)
Line: Butler -13.
Butler has been to back-to-back national championship games. Despite losing them both, they have become the poster child for what every mid-major program hopes to be. The Bulldogs have built up to the point that they are a respected name brand. Brad Stevens has been successful in every way imaginable.
A funny thing has happened through all of that success though. This year, the Bulldogs lost their exhibition game in a stunner, and then were upset by Evansville, 80-77 in overtime, on Saturday.
In other words, this is not your ever so slightly older brother's Butler.
Their offense has been sputtering a bit. Chrishawn Hopkins scored 22 against the Aces while Andrew Smith put in 21. No one else scored in double digits. Of course, those two combined to take 27 of the teams 58 shots. The rest of the team shot under 42 percent and scored just 34 points. They outrebounded Evansville, 31-27, lead by Smith's nine rebounds. They turned the ball over 18 times but forced 17 turnovers. Ronald Nored has 4 assists and three turnovers, while Hopkins had five assists and five turnovers.
Of course, the Bulldogs have nothing on the Mocs in terms of offensive ineffectiveness. The Mocs turned the ball over 25 times, and shot 27% from the field, including 18% in the second half. If Omar Wattad was taken away against the Hoosiers, no Moc would have even approached double figures. Two of the starters, Keegan Bell and Chris Early, did not even score, which is completely unacceptable.
The Mocs did completely dominate the boards against Indiana, which means they brought the effort. The shots simply were not falling. They also turned the ball over 25 times, which is not acceptable, either. If there is one thing you can count on from the Bulldogs, it is that they will bring toughness and defense. They held the Aces to 41% shooting. The Mocs will need to shoot much better than they did against Indiana to have a chance, and that may be asking too much.
Smith is 6-11, 239, which may prove too much for any Moc to handle. Z Mason was acceptable against Indiana. He is the widest body, but is not tall enough probably. Zlovaric played well, and will need produce more of the same.
Wattad and Bell will also need big games, and Ricky Taylor needs to shoot better. Wattad is a tremendous shooter. Bell is a good distributor but needs to be a scorer to help things out. Taylor needs to shoot much better. Rico White and Lance Stokes, and even Jared Bryant need to bring out good performances. Jahmal Burroughs also played really well against the Hoosiers, all things considered.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. If the Mocs can rebound as well against Butler as they did against Indiana, they should be able to hang around in the game.
--The Mocs need to not let Butler's physical style get to them. This will be good practice for Davidson and Elon. They need to not let it get into their heads.
--Zlovaric and the gang against Smith. The Mocs have to come up with a way to control the Butler big man. He is going to be a load for them to handle. He may be the toughest big man the Mocs face this year- unless UK develops an inside presence between now and when the Mocs play them.
--Bell. He has to control the tempo. He has to not turn the ball over, while keeping the Mocs in their offense. It would not hurt my feelings any if he decided to drop about 15-20 points, which is certainly not outside the realm of possibility.
--A surprise scorer. Someone needs to be a surprise scorer for the Mocs. It doesn't matter who. Just someone needs to come on to complement Wattad. Probably that needs to be someone other than Bell or Taylor as well, since they are the players expected to complement Wattad. Maybe something from someone like Rico White. That would be huge.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Bell and Early will both score SOME points in this game.
--Smith will score at least 25 points for Butler.
--Wattad will score plenty of points again.
--The Mocs will turn the ball over too many times in the end.
--Butler 65, Mocs 51. The Mocs will turn the ball over too much, but the defenses will dominate for both teams. Neither team will score well. The Bulldogs will find a way to win their home opener, but it won't be easy. The Mocs offense will look slightly better, but still will not be pretty. That's too much to overcome.
GO MOCS!
SoCon Monster Game of the Week Preview: South Carolina at Elon
Time: 7:00 PM
TV: SportSouth
Line: South Carolina -5.
Jack Isenbarger left early in the second half with a minor injury. It's a question of whether or not he is healthy enough to play in this one. I can't find any recent information on this, so I'm going to assume that he can play. He shot 1 of 9 from the floor against Massachusetts and scored just three points. He is a much better shooter than that.
Lucas Troutman and Drew Spradlin are the other stars for the Phoenix. Troutman lead the team in scoring with 15 points. Spradlin scored 14 points. He is the team's true star. He is one of the better players in the SoCon.
But Matt Matheny is the key. He has instilled a level of toughness and physicality to the Phoenix. They are one of the rising teams in the SoCon, and could be a major surprise in the North Division. Elon is an excellent team. They matched UMass in rebounding in the opener, 35-35. Ryley Beaumont, a 6-7 sophomore, lead the team in rebounds with eight. He also lead the team with six turnovers, of the Phoenix 25 on the night.
South Carolina, on the other hand, won 75-50 over Western Carolina on Friday night. The Catamounts are picked ahead of the Phoenix in the SoCon North, but South Carolina shot nearly 51% against the Catamounts and outrebounded them 35-25. Anthony Gill made 6 of 7 shots and scored 14 points. Lakeem Jackson lead the team with ten rebounds.
But the Gamecocks have just one player over 6-8. Carlton Geathers is 6-10. The Phoenix can compete with the Gamecocks on the boards for sure. Elon will be able to control the Gamecocks on offense.
This is one of the bigger home games that Elon has played. They do not have a large gym, and it could bother the Gamecocks to play in such a small setting, as it bothers many teams.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Elon will need to be physical with South Carolina.
--How will Gill perform in his first road game?
--Will South Carolina respond to the small setting with composure or will it bother them some?
--Isenbarger's health.
LEAD PIPE LOCKS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Elon will outrebound South Carolina.
--Gill will not have as many points as he scored against Western Carolina.
--Very low scoring affair.
--Elon 57, South Carolina 53. The Phoenix are good, and will show it off here. They are really hungry to pull off an upset and will find it here, sending a message to the SoCon North that they are a contender in the division.
TV: SportSouth
Line: South Carolina -5.
Jack Isenbarger left early in the second half with a minor injury. It's a question of whether or not he is healthy enough to play in this one. I can't find any recent information on this, so I'm going to assume that he can play. He shot 1 of 9 from the floor against Massachusetts and scored just three points. He is a much better shooter than that.
Lucas Troutman and Drew Spradlin are the other stars for the Phoenix. Troutman lead the team in scoring with 15 points. Spradlin scored 14 points. He is the team's true star. He is one of the better players in the SoCon.
But Matt Matheny is the key. He has instilled a level of toughness and physicality to the Phoenix. They are one of the rising teams in the SoCon, and could be a major surprise in the North Division. Elon is an excellent team. They matched UMass in rebounding in the opener, 35-35. Ryley Beaumont, a 6-7 sophomore, lead the team in rebounds with eight. He also lead the team with six turnovers, of the Phoenix 25 on the night.
South Carolina, on the other hand, won 75-50 over Western Carolina on Friday night. The Catamounts are picked ahead of the Phoenix in the SoCon North, but South Carolina shot nearly 51% against the Catamounts and outrebounded them 35-25. Anthony Gill made 6 of 7 shots and scored 14 points. Lakeem Jackson lead the team with ten rebounds.
But the Gamecocks have just one player over 6-8. Carlton Geathers is 6-10. The Phoenix can compete with the Gamecocks on the boards for sure. Elon will be able to control the Gamecocks on offense.
This is one of the bigger home games that Elon has played. They do not have a large gym, and it could bother the Gamecocks to play in such a small setting, as it bothers many teams.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Elon will need to be physical with South Carolina.
--How will Gill perform in his first road game?
--Will South Carolina respond to the small setting with composure or will it bother them some?
--Isenbarger's health.
LEAD PIPE LOCKS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Elon will outrebound South Carolina.
--Gill will not have as many points as he scored against Western Carolina.
--Very low scoring affair.
--Elon 57, South Carolina 53. The Phoenix are good, and will show it off here. They are really hungry to pull off an upset and will find it here, sending a message to the SoCon North that they are a contender in the division.
Double Dribbles-11-14-11
1) Anyone who watched the Wofford-Georgia game had to come away thinking that the Terriers may not go as quietly as we thought they would as the two time defending champs of the SoCon. They were far from perfect, but they hung into the game late into the game- which is far more than Western Carolina can say about their showdown with South Carolina or UNCG can say about their trip to Tennessee. Combine that performance of Wofford's with The Citadel's solid showing in the All Military Classic (a three point loss to VMI and a double digit win over Army) and suddenly the South may still be better than the North.
2) The North's bright spot may have been Elon's showing against Massachusetts. The Phoenix were ahead at halftime against the Minutemen before falling in the second half. Elon has been rumored to be ahead of their predicted finish, and after UNCG and Western Carolina's poor showings against the worst the SEC has to offer, Elon might be considered one of the favorites in the North. The Phoenix are quickly making themselves one of the more interesting teams to follow as we go along in the season. The Phoenix host South Carolina on Tuesday.
2) The North's bright spot may have been Elon's showing against Massachusetts. The Phoenix were ahead at halftime against the Minutemen before falling in the second half. Elon has been rumored to be ahead of their predicted finish, and after UNCG and Western Carolina's poor showings against the worst the SEC has to offer, Elon might be considered one of the favorites in the North. The Phoenix are quickly making themselves one of the more interesting teams to follow as we go along in the season. The Phoenix host South Carolina on Tuesday.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Indiana 78, Mocs 53
THE FOUR FACTORS (plus two)
These four factors are considered by many statisticians to be the key to winning a basketball game. The higher the score on Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), Offensive Rebound Percentage (OR%), and Free Throw Rate (FTRate) the better the odds to win. The lower the Turnover Percentage (TO%) the better it is for the odds of winning. Also, I have include Free Throw Percentage (FT%) because I consider that to be critical to winning as well, particularly if FTRate is higher. The final stat I included is Three Point Rate (3PTRate). This measures how many three pointers the team takes compared to two pointers. That means that there is no clear winner on it, but it is a stat that I consider critical to the Mocs success. It's just one to monitor to guarantee they are not shooting too many threes.
eFG%
Mocs- 39.2%
Indiana- 57.0%
Advantage- Indiana
TO%
Mocs- 34.3%
Indiana- 24.7%
Advantage- Indiana
OR%
Mocs- 40.0%
Indiana- 19.4%
Advantage- Mocs
FTRate
Mocs- 26.7%
Indiana- 62%
Advantage- Indiana
FT%
Mocs- 68.8%
Indiana- 67.7%
Advantage- Mocs
3PTRate
Mocs- 36.7%
Indiana- 36.0%
PLAYER RATER
Using ESPN's Player Rater, each Mocs player has been calculated. I have also calculated each player's total per 40 minutes. They are ranked in each category based on how well they played.
Overall
1) Omar Wattad 35.85
2) Drazen Zlovaric 11.45
3) Jahmal Burroughs 9.5
4) Keegan Bell 6.3
5) Z Mason 5.15
6) Rico White 4.9
7) Jared Bryant 2.9
8) Ricky Taylor 1.7
9) Lance Stokes 1.3
10) Dontay Hampton .8
11) Drew Baker 0.0
12) Chris Early -0.2
13) Martynas Bareika -0.8
Per 40 Minutes
1) Omar Wattad 51.21
2) Jahmal Burroughs 23.75
3) Jared Bryant 19.33
4) Drazen Zlovaric 17.62
5) Z Mason 12.12
6) Rico White 10.89
7) Keegan Bell 8.4
8) Lance Stokes 4.3
9) Ricky Taylor 3.8
10) Dontay Hampton 3.2
11) Drew Baker 0.0
12) Chris Early -0.47
13) Martynas Bareika -32.0
ANALYSIS
I should be 100% forthcoming right up front. I was unable to listen to the game because the feed on GoMocs.com was down. I was unable to watch the game because I cancelled my subscription to the Big Ten Network a few months ago in an attempt to save a little money. So for me, I was watching the game on CBS GameTracker. Not nearly interesting- much tougher to gather what is truly going on as well. However, all that being said, I am still going to throw some analysis at this game.
The Mocs shot a miserable 18% from the field in the second half. When that happens, you do not win many games. Particularly when you are playing a team the caliber of Indiana on the road.
Let's start with the bad. The Mocs committed 25 turnovers- a simply unacceptable number. The Mocs turned the ball over on roughly 34% of their possessions. That is simply too high of a number. Zlovaric was responsible for six of those turnovers, but did manage ten rebounds and seven points. Bell had five turnovers. That's too many for the point guard to make. When you combine it with Bell's scoreless effort, it becomes even more clear why the Mocs struggled. Bell did get seven assists, but that is little comfort.
But Bell wasn't the only scoreless starter for the Mocs. Chris Early was held scoreless too. How the Mocs can expect to win with both Bell and Early held scoreless is beyond me. Early was in foul trouble and fouled out. Not good. He needs to be much more of a factor.
When you shoot roughly 27% from the floor for the game, you are not going to win too many games. It is just a simple fact. The Hoosiers also shot 50%.
Now for the good news. The Hoosiers shot 65% against Stony Brook on Friday night. So the Hoosiers did not shoot as well. Defense or more normal offense? Maybe a little bit of both. We'll find out.
The Mocs held Christian Watford and Cody Zeller combined for nine points and ten rebounds. If the Mocs had been told that before the game, I believe they would have taken it. The Mocs outrebounded Indiana 45-36. Combine those facts pregame, and I would have expected the Mocs to win. There is no way they shoot just 27% from the field.
Doing a quick look through at the Player Rater, Wattad obviously played well, but so did Burroughs, and even Zlovaric played OK, if the turnovers are taken out of the equation. Bryant only played six minutes, but came up with the second most rebounds of any Moc, and wound up third in the Player Rater per 40 minutes.
Victor Oladipo went off for a career high of 21 for the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls added 18, including several huge threes.
This was not a solid showing by the Mocs. The Mocs were certainly hoping for more. It did not happen this night. They will need to shoot better to beat teams on their schedule. They will need to turn the ball over less. It is possible that the Mocs can pull that off. That could start on Tuesday night against Butler. Then again, it may need to wait until the schedule softens a touch- say the home opener next Friday against Kennesaw State.
There is plenty to build on here. If the Mocs shoot better, and play with the same intensity rebounding (rebounding nearly 40% of their misses...wow) and find a way to get to the line more, then they will be in every single one of their remaining games (outside of possibly Kentucky).
Should be an interesting game on Tuesday night at Butler. More on that game tomorrow.
GO MOCS!
These four factors are considered by many statisticians to be the key to winning a basketball game. The higher the score on Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), Offensive Rebound Percentage (OR%), and Free Throw Rate (FTRate) the better the odds to win. The lower the Turnover Percentage (TO%) the better it is for the odds of winning. Also, I have include Free Throw Percentage (FT%) because I consider that to be critical to winning as well, particularly if FTRate is higher. The final stat I included is Three Point Rate (3PTRate). This measures how many three pointers the team takes compared to two pointers. That means that there is no clear winner on it, but it is a stat that I consider critical to the Mocs success. It's just one to monitor to guarantee they are not shooting too many threes.
eFG%
Mocs- 39.2%
Indiana- 57.0%
Advantage- Indiana
TO%
Mocs- 34.3%
Indiana- 24.7%
Advantage- Indiana
OR%
Mocs- 40.0%
Indiana- 19.4%
Advantage- Mocs
FTRate
Mocs- 26.7%
Indiana- 62%
Advantage- Indiana
FT%
Mocs- 68.8%
Indiana- 67.7%
Advantage- Mocs
3PTRate
Mocs- 36.7%
Indiana- 36.0%
PLAYER RATER
Using ESPN's Player Rater, each Mocs player has been calculated. I have also calculated each player's total per 40 minutes. They are ranked in each category based on how well they played.
Overall
1) Omar Wattad 35.85
2) Drazen Zlovaric 11.45
3) Jahmal Burroughs 9.5
4) Keegan Bell 6.3
5) Z Mason 5.15
6) Rico White 4.9
7) Jared Bryant 2.9
8) Ricky Taylor 1.7
9) Lance Stokes 1.3
10) Dontay Hampton .8
11) Drew Baker 0.0
12) Chris Early -0.2
13) Martynas Bareika -0.8
Per 40 Minutes
1) Omar Wattad 51.21
2) Jahmal Burroughs 23.75
3) Jared Bryant 19.33
4) Drazen Zlovaric 17.62
5) Z Mason 12.12
6) Rico White 10.89
7) Keegan Bell 8.4
8) Lance Stokes 4.3
9) Ricky Taylor 3.8
10) Dontay Hampton 3.2
11) Drew Baker 0.0
12) Chris Early -0.47
13) Martynas Bareika -32.0
ANALYSIS
I should be 100% forthcoming right up front. I was unable to listen to the game because the feed on GoMocs.com was down. I was unable to watch the game because I cancelled my subscription to the Big Ten Network a few months ago in an attempt to save a little money. So for me, I was watching the game on CBS GameTracker. Not nearly interesting- much tougher to gather what is truly going on as well. However, all that being said, I am still going to throw some analysis at this game.
The Mocs shot a miserable 18% from the field in the second half. When that happens, you do not win many games. Particularly when you are playing a team the caliber of Indiana on the road.
Let's start with the bad. The Mocs committed 25 turnovers- a simply unacceptable number. The Mocs turned the ball over on roughly 34% of their possessions. That is simply too high of a number. Zlovaric was responsible for six of those turnovers, but did manage ten rebounds and seven points. Bell had five turnovers. That's too many for the point guard to make. When you combine it with Bell's scoreless effort, it becomes even more clear why the Mocs struggled. Bell did get seven assists, but that is little comfort.
But Bell wasn't the only scoreless starter for the Mocs. Chris Early was held scoreless too. How the Mocs can expect to win with both Bell and Early held scoreless is beyond me. Early was in foul trouble and fouled out. Not good. He needs to be much more of a factor.
When you shoot roughly 27% from the floor for the game, you are not going to win too many games. It is just a simple fact. The Hoosiers also shot 50%.
Now for the good news. The Hoosiers shot 65% against Stony Brook on Friday night. So the Hoosiers did not shoot as well. Defense or more normal offense? Maybe a little bit of both. We'll find out.
The Mocs held Christian Watford and Cody Zeller combined for nine points and ten rebounds. If the Mocs had been told that before the game, I believe they would have taken it. The Mocs outrebounded Indiana 45-36. Combine those facts pregame, and I would have expected the Mocs to win. There is no way they shoot just 27% from the field.
Doing a quick look through at the Player Rater, Wattad obviously played well, but so did Burroughs, and even Zlovaric played OK, if the turnovers are taken out of the equation. Bryant only played six minutes, but came up with the second most rebounds of any Moc, and wound up third in the Player Rater per 40 minutes.
Victor Oladipo went off for a career high of 21 for the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls added 18, including several huge threes.
This was not a solid showing by the Mocs. The Mocs were certainly hoping for more. It did not happen this night. They will need to shoot better to beat teams on their schedule. They will need to turn the ball over less. It is possible that the Mocs can pull that off. That could start on Tuesday night against Butler. Then again, it may need to wait until the schedule softens a touch- say the home opener next Friday against Kennesaw State.
There is plenty to build on here. If the Mocs shoot better, and play with the same intensity rebounding (rebounding nearly 40% of their misses...wow) and find a way to get to the line more, then they will be in every single one of their remaining games (outside of possibly Kentucky).
Should be an interesting game on Tuesday night at Butler. More on that game tomorrow.
GO MOCS!
SoCon Monster Game of the Week: South Carolina at Elon
In the interest of getting to every team at least once, last week we used The Citadel vs. VMI. It was not a disappointment. This week's selected game should be even better.
Elon will be battling South Carolina at Elon. This is a great opportunity for a SoCon team to come up with an upset over an SEC school in their own gym. That game will be Tuesday night. The Phoenix were not expected to be as good as they have looked in their exhibition game and their season opener against Massachusetts. It was a very good showing.
On the other hand, South Carolina dominated Western Carolina in the opener. The Catamounts could not keep it close, but the Phoenix in their home gym may be tough enough to be able to come up with the huge win. This one should be an excellent game. I'm really looking forward to this one.
Elon will be battling South Carolina at Elon. This is a great opportunity for a SoCon team to come up with an upset over an SEC school in their own gym. That game will be Tuesday night. The Phoenix were not expected to be as good as they have looked in their exhibition game and their season opener against Massachusetts. It was a very good showing.
On the other hand, South Carolina dominated Western Carolina in the opener. The Catamounts could not keep it close, but the Phoenix in their home gym may be tough enough to be able to come up with the huge win. This one should be an excellent game. I'm really looking forward to this one.
Scanning the SoCon- Week Two
Each week, we will have four fans from around the conference answer questions regarding the SoCon. Here are the four fans and their websites:
DavidsonCats- A Davidson Wildcats fan.
MocsMania- A Chattanooga Mocs fan.
TheSportsArsenal- A Citadel Bulldogs fan.
UNCGBasketballFan- A UNCG Spartans fan.
SCHEDULE
POWER RANKINGS
1. Davidson 48 (4)
2. Chattanooga 43
3. College of Charleston 40
4. Appalachian State 36
5. Western Carolina 31
6. Wofford 23
7t.UNC-Greensboro 22
7t. Elon 22
9. Georgia Southern 19
10. Furman 12
11. The Citadel 11
12. Samford 5
Sum up your team in 150 words.
DavidsonCats: Davidson doesn't start the D1 season until Monday when they host the Richmond Spiders. The Spiders made the Sweet 16 last season, but lost a lot of firepower to graduation. They were 13-3 in the A10 last year and 29-8 overall. We'll learn a lot about the Wildcats in the next 8 days. We host Richmond, play at Duke, and then host Presbyterian. In the Friday night game against D3 Guilford the Wildcats rolled 111-64. The starters were Cohen, Kuhlman, Cochran, De'Mon Brooks, and Tom Droney. Clint Mann started last season. He didn't play in the final scrimmage against Lenoir-Rhyne and played in a protective face mask against Guilford. Oft-injured senior Frank Ben-Eze played well against LR and didn't play against Guilford. Wildcat fans are optimistic about the play of sophomore Christopher Czerapowicz and freshman Tyler Kalinoski. The two combined for 7 3-pointers against Guilford.
MocsMania: The Mocs didn't play this week, so there isn't much to add to what I already said last week. I guess the only thing to add is that Shulman talked this week about how Stokes and White may be on the first team instead of Early and Taylor. Stokes and White are both freshman, so this is more than a little surprising to me at this point in the season. Not sure if they will end up starting or not. The competition for those spots can only make all the players better. That would be good for the Mocs.
TheSportsArsenal: It was not a bad weekend for The Citadel, as the Bulldogs split two games at the All-Military Classic in Colorado Springs . The Citadel needs to do a better job at the beginning of games, as it trailed by large margins early in both contests. A furious end-game run wasn’t enough against VMI, which outlasted the Bulldogs 103-100, but The Citadel overcame a 20-point deficit to beat Army 83-72.Mike Groselle was outstanding in both games, finishing with a combined line of 41 points (16-21 FG, 9-12 FT), 21 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals, with only 2 turnovers, in 68 total minutes. The Bulldogs got good performances from several freshmen in both games, and a sterling effort against Army from DeVontae Wright (26 points on just 12 FGA). The Black Knights are picked by most observers to finish in the Patriot League basement, but any D-1 win this early in the season by a team as youthful as The Citadel is a good one.
UNCGBasketballFan: Well that first game was certainly a shocker. Not beating a power conference team on the road is one thing. But it was never even interesting. UT made their first 3 shots and it was over. Part of it was just it was one of those nights for the Vols. They hit 2 NBA range 3's and banked 1 in from the corner very early. G just never recovered. But some of it was just plain bad defense. Plus, it was back to an old problem for the Spartans ... not being able to keep guards in front of them. That problem must get corrected soon. Also, Dement seemed very lost in who he wanted to play. G played 12 guys in the first 15 mintues of the game. He's got to get that under control. Right now it just looks like he's panicing. That's not cool at all.
What game are you most looking forward to, other than ones your team plays in, this week?
DavidsonCats: I'm looking forward to the Mocs game at Butler. Butler has played in the past two National Championship games, and have one of the most historic home courts in the game. They lost on Saturday at Evansville. This would be a sweet win for the Mocs and for the Southern, but it won't be easy.
MocsMania: Count me among the interested in South Carolina's visit to Elon. The Phoenix played very competitively with Massachusetts in the opener, while South Carolina hammered away at Western Carolina in the opener. The gym at Elon is not big, and the Mocs have often had difficulty adjusting to it. That will be even tougher for a team like South Carolina, who is used to playing in places like Rupp Arena. The Phoenix are a good team- much better than originally thought by many people, I believe. They have a chance to show it against the Gamecocks.
TheSportsArsenal: It’s hard to pick just one game of interest this week. Chattanooga plays both IU and Butler , which should be a decent early indicator of how the Mocs will play this season. Davidson’s game against Dukeshould be a good watch. I’ll also be following the CofC’s game at Clemson, as a kind of barometer for The Citadel, which hosts the Tigers earlier in the week.
UNCGBasketballFan: Chattanooga at Butler. Even though the Bulldogs have been to 2 straight final fours, they dropped an exhibition game to a non-D1 team this past week. I think there is absolutely a chance a good SoCon team can pick up a nice win over a very good mid-major program.
What would it take for a SoCon team to earn an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament?
DavidsonCats: To get an at-large bid right now, we need someone to cash some big OOC wins, run through the conference regular season, achieve a national ranking, and then lose in the conference tournament. In other words, we need a perfect storm of unlikely events. The long-term answer is that to get an at-large bid we need to have several superb teams. To do that we need to start bringing in more players with more talent.
MocsMania: Someone has to come up with several good out of conference wins. I think that something along the lines of an OVC-SoCon Challenge (or CAA-SoCon, if they'd go for it) would be good for the SoCon. I think that the conference scheduling all twelve teams to participate in BracketBusters would be good. Do those two things, and instantly the scheduling gets slightly better because there would be fewer non-D1's on the schedules of certain teams. Winning those games would be the second step, obviously. I do not believe that they have to run the table in the SoCon. I think College of Charleston could have gotten into the discussion last year if they had had just one SoCon loss. They had a decent RPI, and a couple of nice OOC wins. I think a nice run in the NCAA Tournament by a team one year and then a solid all around year for the conference the next year would be the real way that this would work out for the SoCon. Probably this year, an at large is all but out of the question, due to the lack of respect for the conference on the whole.
TheSportsArsenal: The SoCon has not had a team receive an at-large bid to the NCAAs since 1950 ( North Carolina State ). I believe Davidson might have garnered an at-large berth in 2008 even if had not won the league tourney. It would have been close. That’s the kind of team that could get an at-large -- a team that runs the table in the league in a decent year for the conference. That Wildcat squad played well out of conference but couldn’t quite get a win that would have “locked” up an at-large bid, if it had needed it.
UNCGBasketballFan: Honestly, our league is going to have to start scheduling much, much better and start to win some of those games. There are just way too many non-D1's being scheduled throughout the league. Our league need to start scheduling lots of mid-major conference team and beating them, as well as getting some wins against power conmference teams. Also, it's going to take wins in the NCAA tournament to gain respect. Even though it's repeatedly denied, past performance does play into future opinions on the conference by the selection comittee. The Misouri Valley and CAA prove this point. It's a shame our league couldn't capitalize on the success of Davidson a few years a ago.
The national fall signing period began this week. What are your thoughts on your teams signees or the signees around the league?
DavidsonCats: It looks like we have some good guards coming in next year. Elon and GSU have both signed shooting guards with ESPN recruiting scores of 85. Chattanooga has signed a guard with a score of 86, Farad Cobb. Hopefully, the conference will also do well in the spring signing period.
MocsMania: I like who the Mocs signed. Warren was big, but Cobb was the most important signee for the Mocs. With Bell graduating, the only true PG on the roster is Hampton, the walk-on. Hampton is fine and all, but the Mocs desperately needed a really good PG to come on, and Cobb fits the bill. He is one of the Top 50 in the country. Tanner Samson looks like a nice find for Elon as well. The Phoenix need another shooter, and they may have found him in Samson.
TheSportsArsenal: The Citadel had two early signees, a point guard from the local area, and a 6’6”forward from Wisconsin who is a good shooter. Both seem to be solid pickups. I'm not that familiar with recruiting around the league.
UNCGBasketballFan: I'm quite dissapponted with UNCG's signing class. Jordan Potts seems to bea very nice player, but I'm confused as to why G needs another PG. The rumor was that Potts teamate (and former Cincinatti commit) Devon Scott was looking to join him in Greensboro. Scott is a strong 6'-8" foward and would have made sense to a team that is losing both of it's big men. However, Scott picked Dayton on Wednesday. It looks like the staff has missed on all of the other big guys that they targeted in the fall. I would expect UNCG to go the JUCO route in the spring and grab a couple of big guys.
Who is the more important returning injured player- Isaac Butts (Appalachian State) or Willie Powers (Georgia Southern)?
DavidsonCats: I think Powers is more important to his team than Butts is to his. ASU has other guys who can defend, rebound, and bang. Butts is a force and the ASU guys say that he is in excellent shape. He could be a double-double machine this season. Powers does so many things well. He scores it, rebounds it, passes it, and is a fine defender. What makes me pick him, though, is that he can be a coach on the floor. GSU has a team of young guys with more talent than discipline. Powers can help them develop and teach them to win.
MocsMania: I am a big believer in Butts. Last year, with Sims, the Mountaineers finished third in the North. Many people expect them to win the division this year, without Sims. How is that possible? It's because Butts is back. He is a big body for the Mountaineers and instantly becomes one of the best big men in the league. Powers is great, and could win POY if the Eagles have a breakout year. But I am not convinced that Powers makes as much difference as Butts does to the Eagles.
TheSportsArsenal: Ike Butts could conceivably help Appalachian State win the league if everything breaks right for the Mountaineers. No matter what Willie Powers does, Georgia Southern isn’t winning the league. I think Powers is a more valuable player for his team, but Butts is a bigger impact in terms of the league as a whole.
UNCGBasketballFan: Powers, hand down. Adding an experienced player to that team makes them dangerous to really have a break out season.
DavidsonCats- A Davidson Wildcats fan.
MocsMania- A Chattanooga Mocs fan.
TheSportsArsenal- A Citadel Bulldogs fan.
UNCGBasketballFan- A UNCG Spartans fan.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 13
Chattanooga at Indiana (Hoosier Classic)
Emory & Henry at Wofford
Monday, November 14
UNG-Greensboro at Georgetown (Maui Invitational)
Furman at Columbia
Richmond at Davidson
Tuesday, November 15
Morehead State at College of Charleston (25 Hours of Basketball) (ESPN)
Chattanooga at Butler (Hoosier Classic)
Appalachian State at ETSU
South Carolina at Elon (SportSouth)
Montreat at Western Carolina
Wednesday, November 16
Georgia Southern at Wake Forest (SportSouth)
Clemson at The Citadel (ESPN3)
Thursday, November 17
UNC-Pembroke at UNC-Greensboro
Mercer at Furman
Western Carolina at Presbyterian
Friday, November 18
Davidson at Duke (ESPNU)
Webber International at Georgia Southern
Samford at Jacksonville
Kennesaw State at Chattanooga
Rutgers-Newark at Elon
Saturday, November 19
UNCG at Middle Tennessee (Maui Invitational)
College of Charleston at Clemson
Wofford at Wisconsin (Chicago Invitational Challenge) (ESPN3)
Appalachian State at Tennessee Tech
1. Davidson 48 (4)
2. Chattanooga 43
3. College of Charleston 40
4. Appalachian State 36
5. Western Carolina 31
6. Wofford 23
7t.UNC-Greensboro 22
7t. Elon 22
9. Georgia Southern 19
10. Furman 12
11. The Citadel 11
12. Samford 5
Sum up your team in 150 words.
DavidsonCats: Davidson doesn't start the D1 season until Monday when they host the Richmond Spiders. The Spiders made the Sweet 16 last season, but lost a lot of firepower to graduation. They were 13-3 in the A10 last year and 29-8 overall. We'll learn a lot about the Wildcats in the next 8 days. We host Richmond, play at Duke, and then host Presbyterian. In the Friday night game against D3 Guilford the Wildcats rolled 111-64. The starters were Cohen, Kuhlman, Cochran, De'Mon Brooks, and Tom Droney. Clint Mann started last season. He didn't play in the final scrimmage against Lenoir-Rhyne and played in a protective face mask against Guilford. Oft-injured senior Frank Ben-Eze played well against LR and didn't play against Guilford. Wildcat fans are optimistic about the play of sophomore Christopher Czerapowicz and freshman Tyler Kalinoski. The two combined for 7 3-pointers against Guilford.
MocsMania: The Mocs didn't play this week, so there isn't much to add to what I already said last week. I guess the only thing to add is that Shulman talked this week about how Stokes and White may be on the first team instead of Early and Taylor. Stokes and White are both freshman, so this is more than a little surprising to me at this point in the season. Not sure if they will end up starting or not. The competition for those spots can only make all the players better. That would be good for the Mocs.
TheSportsArsenal: It was not a bad weekend for The Citadel, as the Bulldogs split two games at the All-Military Classic in Colorado Springs . The Citadel needs to do a better job at the beginning of games, as it trailed by large margins early in both contests. A furious end-game run wasn’t enough against VMI, which outlasted the Bulldogs 103-100, but The Citadel overcame a 20-point deficit to beat Army 83-72.Mike Groselle was outstanding in both games, finishing with a combined line of 41 points (16-21 FG, 9-12 FT), 21 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals, with only 2 turnovers, in 68 total minutes. The Bulldogs got good performances from several freshmen in both games, and a sterling effort against Army from DeVontae Wright (26 points on just 12 FGA). The Black Knights are picked by most observers to finish in the Patriot League basement, but any D-1 win this early in the season by a team as youthful as The Citadel is a good one.
UNCGBasketballFan: Well that first game was certainly a shocker. Not beating a power conference team on the road is one thing. But it was never even interesting. UT made their first 3 shots and it was over. Part of it was just it was one of those nights for the Vols. They hit 2 NBA range 3's and banked 1 in from the corner very early. G just never recovered. But some of it was just plain bad defense. Plus, it was back to an old problem for the Spartans ... not being able to keep guards in front of them. That problem must get corrected soon. Also, Dement seemed very lost in who he wanted to play. G played 12 guys in the first 15 mintues of the game. He's got to get that under control. Right now it just looks like he's panicing. That's not cool at all.
What game are you most looking forward to, other than ones your team plays in, this week?
DavidsonCats: I'm looking forward to the Mocs game at Butler. Butler has played in the past two National Championship games, and have one of the most historic home courts in the game. They lost on Saturday at Evansville. This would be a sweet win for the Mocs and for the Southern, but it won't be easy.
MocsMania: Count me among the interested in South Carolina's visit to Elon. The Phoenix played very competitively with Massachusetts in the opener, while South Carolina hammered away at Western Carolina in the opener. The gym at Elon is not big, and the Mocs have often had difficulty adjusting to it. That will be even tougher for a team like South Carolina, who is used to playing in places like Rupp Arena. The Phoenix are a good team- much better than originally thought by many people, I believe. They have a chance to show it against the Gamecocks.
TheSportsArsenal: It’s hard to pick just one game of interest this week. Chattanooga plays both IU and Butler , which should be a decent early indicator of how the Mocs will play this season. Davidson’s game against Dukeshould be a good watch. I’ll also be following the CofC’s game at Clemson, as a kind of barometer for The Citadel, which hosts the Tigers earlier in the week.
UNCGBasketballFan: Chattanooga at Butler. Even though the Bulldogs have been to 2 straight final fours, they dropped an exhibition game to a non-D1 team this past week. I think there is absolutely a chance a good SoCon team can pick up a nice win over a very good mid-major program.
What would it take for a SoCon team to earn an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament?
DavidsonCats: To get an at-large bid right now, we need someone to cash some big OOC wins, run through the conference regular season, achieve a national ranking, and then lose in the conference tournament. In other words, we need a perfect storm of unlikely events. The long-term answer is that to get an at-large bid we need to have several superb teams. To do that we need to start bringing in more players with more talent.
MocsMania: Someone has to come up with several good out of conference wins. I think that something along the lines of an OVC-SoCon Challenge (or CAA-SoCon, if they'd go for it) would be good for the SoCon. I think that the conference scheduling all twelve teams to participate in BracketBusters would be good. Do those two things, and instantly the scheduling gets slightly better because there would be fewer non-D1's on the schedules of certain teams. Winning those games would be the second step, obviously. I do not believe that they have to run the table in the SoCon. I think College of Charleston could have gotten into the discussion last year if they had had just one SoCon loss. They had a decent RPI, and a couple of nice OOC wins. I think a nice run in the NCAA Tournament by a team one year and then a solid all around year for the conference the next year would be the real way that this would work out for the SoCon. Probably this year, an at large is all but out of the question, due to the lack of respect for the conference on the whole.
TheSportsArsenal: The SoCon has not had a team receive an at-large bid to the NCAAs since 1950 ( North Carolina State ). I believe Davidson might have garnered an at-large berth in 2008 even if had not won the league tourney. It would have been close. That’s the kind of team that could get an at-large -- a team that runs the table in the league in a decent year for the conference. That Wildcat squad played well out of conference but couldn’t quite get a win that would have “locked” up an at-large bid, if it had needed it.
UNCGBasketballFan: Honestly, our league is going to have to start scheduling much, much better and start to win some of those games. There are just way too many non-D1's being scheduled throughout the league. Our league need to start scheduling lots of mid-major conference team and beating them, as well as getting some wins against power conmference teams. Also, it's going to take wins in the NCAA tournament to gain respect. Even though it's repeatedly denied, past performance does play into future opinions on the conference by the selection comittee. The Misouri Valley and CAA prove this point. It's a shame our league couldn't capitalize on the success of Davidson a few years a ago.
The national fall signing period began this week. What are your thoughts on your teams signees or the signees around the league?
DavidsonCats: It looks like we have some good guards coming in next year. Elon and GSU have both signed shooting guards with ESPN recruiting scores of 85. Chattanooga has signed a guard with a score of 86, Farad Cobb. Hopefully, the conference will also do well in the spring signing period.
MocsMania: I like who the Mocs signed. Warren was big, but Cobb was the most important signee for the Mocs. With Bell graduating, the only true PG on the roster is Hampton, the walk-on. Hampton is fine and all, but the Mocs desperately needed a really good PG to come on, and Cobb fits the bill. He is one of the Top 50 in the country. Tanner Samson looks like a nice find for Elon as well. The Phoenix need another shooter, and they may have found him in Samson.
TheSportsArsenal: The Citadel had two early signees, a point guard from the local area, and a 6’6”forward from Wisconsin who is a good shooter. Both seem to be solid pickups. I'm not that familiar with recruiting around the league.
UNCGBasketballFan: I'm quite dissapponted with UNCG's signing class. Jordan Potts seems to bea very nice player, but I'm confused as to why G needs another PG. The rumor was that Potts teamate (and former Cincinatti commit) Devon Scott was looking to join him in Greensboro. Scott is a strong 6'-8" foward and would have made sense to a team that is losing both of it's big men. However, Scott picked Dayton on Wednesday. It looks like the staff has missed on all of the other big guys that they targeted in the fall. I would expect UNCG to go the JUCO route in the spring and grab a couple of big guys.
Who is the more important returning injured player- Isaac Butts (Appalachian State) or Willie Powers (Georgia Southern)?
DavidsonCats: I think Powers is more important to his team than Butts is to his. ASU has other guys who can defend, rebound, and bang. Butts is a force and the ASU guys say that he is in excellent shape. He could be a double-double machine this season. Powers does so many things well. He scores it, rebounds it, passes it, and is a fine defender. What makes me pick him, though, is that he can be a coach on the floor. GSU has a team of young guys with more talent than discipline. Powers can help them develop and teach them to win.
MocsMania: I am a big believer in Butts. Last year, with Sims, the Mountaineers finished third in the North. Many people expect them to win the division this year, without Sims. How is that possible? It's because Butts is back. He is a big body for the Mountaineers and instantly becomes one of the best big men in the league. Powers is great, and could win POY if the Eagles have a breakout year. But I am not convinced that Powers makes as much difference as Butts does to the Eagles.
TheSportsArsenal: Ike Butts could conceivably help Appalachian State win the league if everything breaks right for the Mountaineers. No matter what Willie Powers does, Georgia Southern isn’t winning the league. I think Powers is a more valuable player for his team, but Butts is a bigger impact in terms of the league as a whole.
UNCGBasketballFan: Powers, hand down. Adding an experienced player to that team makes them dangerous to really have a break out season.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Indiana Preview: It's Go Time
Time: 5:00 Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: Indiana -15
The Mocs head to Bloomington, Indiana, to take on the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers have already played one game, a 30 point blowout over Stony Brook on Friday night.
One of the big questions in this game is how the Hoosiers will respond having less than 48 hours between the two games. Will the quick turnaround hurt the Hoosiers? Or will they be better prepared since they already have one game under their belts and the Mocs do not?
It's an interesting question for the Mocs. Will they be ready to play? Will they be the fresher team? How will that compensate for playing a talented Hoosiers team?
Indiana shot 65.4% against Stony Brook, which is good for first in the country to this point. They also outrebounded them, 31-23, while forcing 16 turnovers and only committing 14. They shot 50% from three point range, and nearly 88% from the free throw line.
In other words, Indiana was nearly perfect in their opening game win over the Seawolves.
Freshman Cody Zeller is the new BMOC. He is listed at 6-11, 220 pounds. He is a load for anyone to handle. He scored 16 points and had 10 rebounds in the opener. He has already become Indiana's best player, and he is the one that the Hoosiers are pinning their championship hopes on.
Christian Watford only scored in single digits three times last year. He also was a big time rebounder for the Hoosiers. But in the opener, he went 2 for 7 from the floor, had seven points, and just two rebounds. His 6-9, 230 frame will be tough for the Mocs interior to deal with, but there is a chance that he feels a little underappreciated with all the attention being paid to Zeller. Was he pouting in the first game? Or was it just a bad game? He is coming back from an injury, so maybe that played a role.
Verdell Jones III had seven assists to lead the team. Jordan Hulls had six assists. Victor Oladipo, who shot nearly 55% from the floor last year, scored 16 in the opener, matching Zeller for the team high. He was also second to Zeller in rebounds, with six.
Coach Shulman has been fairly close to the vest and a little mystic about who the starters would be. The other day, he was quoted as saying that Ricky Taylor and Chris Early did not like being on the second team, behind Lance Stokes and Rico White. If that is indeed true, then there could be a big surprise early in the game for Moc fans. Given that everyone has assumed for the last twelve months pretty much that the starting lineup opening night this year would be Keegan Bell, Omar Wattad, Taylor, Early, and Drazen Zlovaric. Everyone but Zlovaric is a returning starter and a senior. If Stokes and White have cracked the starting lineup, that is impressive.
White and Stokes are two of the freshman that need to produce. Combine those two with the starting five and Burroughs coming off the bench, and already the team looks fairly solid for the Mocs.
Zlovaric (the Georgia transer) is 6-9, 225. His ability to control Zeller or Watford will be key. The second key will be that if that happens, that someone is able to defend the other one. Burroughs was a decent defender last year and looked good against Tennessee Wesleyan in the exhibition. Early has never been known as a great defender, but has been receiving praise for his willingness to get more physical this preseason. Can Early hold his own defensively against Watford or Zeller? That will be a big match-up.
Last year, the Mocs started off ice cold shooting from the floor. Wattad couldn't hit anything in his first couple of games, before turning into a very good shooter. Bell has failed to show up against some of the better teams on the schedule in the past. Bell will need to play under control, which he struggled with at times last year. If Wattad shoots well, that would be big for the Mocs. He did not play in the exhibition due to his injured back, but he should b fine healthwise in this game.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs need to hold their own on the boards. If you read this blog last year, you know that I always think this is a key. If you listen to Shulman, you know that he thinks this is one of the most important things as well.
--How will Bell perform? He is a very good point guard- probably one of the better ones on any mid-major team. He needs to play his game. He has to keep the Mocs calm and be a calming influence on the court.
--White had a huge exhibition game. Can he carry it over into a real game against a Big Ten team?
--How do the Mocs match up with Zeller and Watford? Can they control their offense?
--Can Early create a mismatch by playing more outside in than they are used to guarding?
--How will the Mocs respond to adversity? It is certainly true that in the past, the Mocs have lost some control in games, and let a game really get away from them. Will they respond like a senior-laden team should to a little adversity?
--Turnovers. Can't have 25 turnovers and expect to win this game.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Indiana fans will come away impressed by Bell and Wattad.
--Zeller and Watford will combine for 40 points and 20 rebounds.
--White will struggle in his freshman debut.
--The Mocs will hang tough for the entire first half, having the Bloomington crowd muttering at halftime.
--Indiana 82, Mocs 68.
GO MOCS!
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: Indiana -15
The Mocs head to Bloomington, Indiana, to take on the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers have already played one game, a 30 point blowout over Stony Brook on Friday night.
One of the big questions in this game is how the Hoosiers will respond having less than 48 hours between the two games. Will the quick turnaround hurt the Hoosiers? Or will they be better prepared since they already have one game under their belts and the Mocs do not?
It's an interesting question for the Mocs. Will they be ready to play? Will they be the fresher team? How will that compensate for playing a talented Hoosiers team?
Indiana shot 65.4% against Stony Brook, which is good for first in the country to this point. They also outrebounded them, 31-23, while forcing 16 turnovers and only committing 14. They shot 50% from three point range, and nearly 88% from the free throw line.
In other words, Indiana was nearly perfect in their opening game win over the Seawolves.
Freshman Cody Zeller is the new BMOC. He is listed at 6-11, 220 pounds. He is a load for anyone to handle. He scored 16 points and had 10 rebounds in the opener. He has already become Indiana's best player, and he is the one that the Hoosiers are pinning their championship hopes on.
Christian Watford only scored in single digits three times last year. He also was a big time rebounder for the Hoosiers. But in the opener, he went 2 for 7 from the floor, had seven points, and just two rebounds. His 6-9, 230 frame will be tough for the Mocs interior to deal with, but there is a chance that he feels a little underappreciated with all the attention being paid to Zeller. Was he pouting in the first game? Or was it just a bad game? He is coming back from an injury, so maybe that played a role.
Verdell Jones III had seven assists to lead the team. Jordan Hulls had six assists. Victor Oladipo, who shot nearly 55% from the floor last year, scored 16 in the opener, matching Zeller for the team high. He was also second to Zeller in rebounds, with six.
Coach Shulman has been fairly close to the vest and a little mystic about who the starters would be. The other day, he was quoted as saying that Ricky Taylor and Chris Early did not like being on the second team, behind Lance Stokes and Rico White. If that is indeed true, then there could be a big surprise early in the game for Moc fans. Given that everyone has assumed for the last twelve months pretty much that the starting lineup opening night this year would be Keegan Bell, Omar Wattad, Taylor, Early, and Drazen Zlovaric. Everyone but Zlovaric is a returning starter and a senior. If Stokes and White have cracked the starting lineup, that is impressive.
White and Stokes are two of the freshman that need to produce. Combine those two with the starting five and Burroughs coming off the bench, and already the team looks fairly solid for the Mocs.
Zlovaric (the Georgia transer) is 6-9, 225. His ability to control Zeller or Watford will be key. The second key will be that if that happens, that someone is able to defend the other one. Burroughs was a decent defender last year and looked good against Tennessee Wesleyan in the exhibition. Early has never been known as a great defender, but has been receiving praise for his willingness to get more physical this preseason. Can Early hold his own defensively against Watford or Zeller? That will be a big match-up.
Last year, the Mocs started off ice cold shooting from the floor. Wattad couldn't hit anything in his first couple of games, before turning into a very good shooter. Bell has failed to show up against some of the better teams on the schedule in the past. Bell will need to play under control, which he struggled with at times last year. If Wattad shoots well, that would be big for the Mocs. He did not play in the exhibition due to his injured back, but he should b fine healthwise in this game.
KEYS TO THE GAME
--Rebounding. The Mocs need to hold their own on the boards. If you read this blog last year, you know that I always think this is a key. If you listen to Shulman, you know that he thinks this is one of the most important things as well.
--How will Bell perform? He is a very good point guard- probably one of the better ones on any mid-major team. He needs to play his game. He has to keep the Mocs calm and be a calming influence on the court.
--White had a huge exhibition game. Can he carry it over into a real game against a Big Ten team?
--How do the Mocs match up with Zeller and Watford? Can they control their offense?
--Can Early create a mismatch by playing more outside in than they are used to guarding?
--How will the Mocs respond to adversity? It is certainly true that in the past, the Mocs have lost some control in games, and let a game really get away from them. Will they respond like a senior-laden team should to a little adversity?
--Turnovers. Can't have 25 turnovers and expect to win this game.
LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG
--Indiana fans will come away impressed by Bell and Wattad.
--Zeller and Watford will combine for 40 points and 20 rebounds.
--White will struggle in his freshman debut.
--The Mocs will hang tough for the entire first half, having the Bloomington crowd muttering at halftime.
--Indiana 82, Mocs 68.
GO MOCS!
SoCon Monster Game of the Week Recap: VMI 103, The Citadel 100
The game did not tip off until 12:32 AM Eastern time. So, I did not see much of this game. I saw about half of the first half.
VMI was dominating. They were running and gunning. The Citadel looking like they couldn't keep up. But the beauty of basketball is that you just have to maintain contact.
The Keydets jumped ahead 32-17, but the Bulldogs bounced back and trimmed the lead to 32-29. The lead was 52-46 for VMI at the half. The Bulldogs trailed 100-89 with just about two minutes left, and cut the lead to 102-100 with twelve seconds left. After a VMI free throw, a missed three pointer at the buzzer lead to VMI holding on for a 103-100 win.
The Bulldogs Mike Groselle scored 25 points, and was the only starter in double figures. Ashton Moore still looks like he is going to be a star on this team. He played 32 minutes and scored 12 points. Marshall Harris lead the team with nine assists. Groselle lead the team with twelve rebounds.
What does this mean for The Citadel? Well, it's hard to know how they bounce back from the late night, the tough loss, and the altitude to come out and play Army tonight in the third place game of the All Military Classic. But in the long run, the Bulldogs do not look like the worst team in the SoCon at this point. They look like a downright decent basketball team. They may not win the South, but they may be far more competitive than people orginally thought. This looks like a team capable of pulling some surprises in the SoCon this year. They looked good even early when they were trailing- they just couldn't keep up with VMI's pace. They eventually figured the pace out and really did well by themselves.
VMI was dominating. They were running and gunning. The Citadel looking like they couldn't keep up. But the beauty of basketball is that you just have to maintain contact.
The Keydets jumped ahead 32-17, but the Bulldogs bounced back and trimmed the lead to 32-29. The lead was 52-46 for VMI at the half. The Bulldogs trailed 100-89 with just about two minutes left, and cut the lead to 102-100 with twelve seconds left. After a VMI free throw, a missed three pointer at the buzzer lead to VMI holding on for a 103-100 win.
The Bulldogs Mike Groselle scored 25 points, and was the only starter in double figures. Ashton Moore still looks like he is going to be a star on this team. He played 32 minutes and scored 12 points. Marshall Harris lead the team with nine assists. Groselle lead the team with twelve rebounds.
What does this mean for The Citadel? Well, it's hard to know how they bounce back from the late night, the tough loss, and the altitude to come out and play Army tonight in the third place game of the All Military Classic. But in the long run, the Bulldogs do not look like the worst team in the SoCon at this point. They look like a downright decent basketball team. They may not win the South, but they may be far more competitive than people orginally thought. This looks like a team capable of pulling some surprises in the SoCon this year. They looked good even early when they were trailing- they just couldn't keep up with VMI's pace. They eventually figured the pace out and really did well by themselves.
Friday, November 11, 2011
It's Back!
Tip-off is tonight!
I've been watching some basketball tonight, and it is such a nice feeling to be watching the round ball again.
The only thing missing is the Mocs playing tonight. I wish they were. Instead, they will be playing on Sunday, and I have to wait patiently and satisfy myself by watching other games.
It's been a disappointing start for the SoCon so far. South Carolina hammered Western Carolina, and Tennessee destroyed UNCG, both games that I thought the SoCon had a chance to win. Appalachian State, Furman, and Davidson all look very much like they are going to beat non-D1 teams that they are playing. Charleston is playing well against Holy Cross, and Wofford and Georgia are playing close right now. Georgia Southern is struggling with Valparaiso. Elon-Massachusetts and The Citadel-VMI are both not playing yet.
Indiana beat Stony Brook 96-66. That means that the Mocs coule be in some trouble when they go there on Sunday. The good news is that it will be the Hoosiers second game in three days, while the bad news is that Indiana looked really impressive. Indiana shot over 65% from the field.
So, here we are again. Embarking on another season. I'm ready for it.
GO MOCS!
I've been watching some basketball tonight, and it is such a nice feeling to be watching the round ball again.
The only thing missing is the Mocs playing tonight. I wish they were. Instead, they will be playing on Sunday, and I have to wait patiently and satisfy myself by watching other games.
It's been a disappointing start for the SoCon so far. South Carolina hammered Western Carolina, and Tennessee destroyed UNCG, both games that I thought the SoCon had a chance to win. Appalachian State, Furman, and Davidson all look very much like they are going to beat non-D1 teams that they are playing. Charleston is playing well against Holy Cross, and Wofford and Georgia are playing close right now. Georgia Southern is struggling with Valparaiso. Elon-Massachusetts and The Citadel-VMI are both not playing yet.
Indiana beat Stony Brook 96-66. That means that the Mocs coule be in some trouble when they go there on Sunday. The good news is that it will be the Hoosiers second game in three days, while the bad news is that Indiana looked really impressive. Indiana shot over 65% from the field.
So, here we are again. Embarking on another season. I'm ready for it.
GO MOCS!
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