Scanning the SoCon- Week Five

Very interesting week as conference play opened this week. Lots of stuff to talk about. So let's get going.

Here are our four bloggers:

DavidsonCats- A Davidson Wildcats fan.
MocsMania- A Chattanooga Mocs fan.
TheSportsArsenal- The Citadel Bulldogs fan.
UNCGBasketballFan- A UNCG Spartans fan.

SCHEDULE

Monday, December 5
Elon at UNC-Greensboro
Texas-San Antonio at Samford

Tuesday, December 6
Virginia-Wise at Furman
Coastal Carolina at The Citadel
Tulane at Wofford
Appalachian State at Minnesota (Big Ten Network 2 Go)

Wednesday, December 7
Vanderbilt at Davidson (ESPN3)
Western Carolina at Purdue (Big Ten Network)
Mercer at Samford

Saturday, December 10
ETSU at Appalachian State
Lindsey Wilson College at Samford
Chattanooga at Mercer
Virginia Wise at Wofford
Kent State at Western Carolina
Davidson at Charlotte
Georgia Southern at Eastern Kentucky

POWER RANKINGS
1) Davidson 48 (4)
2) College of Charleston 44
3) Elon 39
4) Western Carolina 32
5) Wofford 29
6t) Appalachian State 26
6t) Georgia Southern 26
8) Chattanooga 23
9) Furman 21
10) UNC-Greensboro 9
11) Samford 8
12) The Citadel 7

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team.

DavidsonCats: It was a very good week for Davidson with a narrow road win at Wofford and a comfortable home win against Furman.  It was great to see Jake Cohen bounce back from his 0 point, 5 foul game at UNCW.  He had 42 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks in the two games.   De'Mon Brooks had 38 points and 14 rebounds.  I think Chris Czerapowicz played his best game as a Wildcat in the Furman win.  He has really worked on his defense and played the top spot in a very effective 1-3-1 for Davidson.  Davidson has some tough games and huge opportunities coming with Vanderbilt at our house on Wednesday before hitting the road for Charlotte and Kansas.  The Wildcats are definitely getting better, adding some new wrinkles to the offense and defense, and developing some players.  We'll see how it all pays off when we resume conference action next month.
MocsMania: The Mocs had an 0-3 week that started off bad, then got slightly better, then got much better, but never resulted in a win. The Mocs loss last Sunday to Gardner-Webb in overtime was downright disgusting in a lot of ways. The loss at Georgia Southern on Thursday was not as bad as some seemed to think it was. Then the Mocs took College of Charleston to double overtime before losing on Saturday on the road. You can't say, "Chattanooga is back," like Keegan Bell did after Saturday's loss, but you can say that the Mocs are improving. Rico White is getting better all the time, Ricky Taylor and Chris Early are starting to come out of an early season funk, Keegan Bell had a triple double against Charleston, and Dontay Hamtpon has been playing well. Lance Stokes looked really good against Georgia Southern coming back from his ankle injury. Omar Wattad and Drazen Zlovaric both need to get it going. Zlovaric looks to be slowly improving. Wattad looks like his confidence is shot for some reason. Maybe too much pressure- probably related to his back injury from the preseason. Regardless, the Mocs new guys are getting better all the time, which means the Mocs will be a much tougher out in January than they are right now. They need to start winning games, though.

TheSportsArsenal: It was a disappointing week for The Citadel. Although not favored in either game (at CofC, at Wofford), I had expected slightly better play from the Bulldogs. The game against the Cougars featured way too many turnovers. Against the Terriers, The Citadel started off horrendously, particularly on defense, and never recovered. Porous defense (and bad starts as a result) has been a theme so far this season for the Bulldogs, one that must be corrected. Mike Groselle continues to work hard and get his points and rebounds (including 19 boards against the CofC), but it hasn't been nearly enough.
UNCGBasketballFan: First, there's that whole Twitter mess that I'm going discuss below. After that, this week has basically been divided into two different parts. There was the first part of the week where G got crushed by it's rival, then had the team and fans explode on each other. Then there was the road trip to the high country where Coach Dement completely changed the starting lineup and got some solid success out of it. That is a tough way to start the SoCon season and I thought that the Spartans actually played pretty well on the road swing. Weird to say that I'm actually sitting here today a little more hopeful about the team. However, I think that Monday's game at home against a red hot Elon is almost a must-win to salvage something of the SoCon season.
Which game are you most looking forward to this week that does not involve your team?

DavidsonCats: We have two high schools here in Mooresville, NC.  One is Lake Norman High School.  They won the state championship in basketball in 2010 and sent two players from that team to Mercer.  I'm looking forward to Mercer's games at Samford and home for Chattanooga this week.
MocsMania: The easy answer is when Davidson hosts Vanderbilt. The Wildcats have their shot at an at large bid in their hands with a win there. That being said, any time there is a conference game on the schedule, that has to be the game I'm most looking forward to. For that reason, I'm going with UNCG hosting Elon as the game I am most looking forward to. (For those who don't know, UNCGSpartans.com provides free video coverage of all their home games.) The Spartans are 0-2 in the SoCon, and desperately need a win to avoid 0-3, all against North teams. Elon can continue their early season surge and get to 2-0 in SoCon play and take command of the North. This is a huge in-division game, and the last SoCon game until after New Year's.

TheSportsArsenal: Tulane at Wofford. Ed Conroy brings a 9-0 Green Wave team to Spartanburg. Admittedly, Tulane's early season schedule has been tissue-soft, but you can't do better than undefeated, and the ninth victory was against Georgia Tech.
UNCGBasketballFan: I think Davidson against Charlotte should be interesting. The Wildcats almost never beat Charlotte. I think they even lost to them during their Elite 8 year. However, I think this Davidson team is superior to Charlotte. 
Let's jump ahead for a moment and assume that Davidson and College of Charleston finish first and second (in some order) in the South. Which team finishes third?

DavidsonCats: Not Citadel.  Wofford, Furman, and GSU are all playing better than expected.  The coaches picked GSU 3rd in the preseason.  They certainly have the talent to do it.  I'm a big Willie Powers fan and think that his return will give them some leadership and discipline on the court.  I guess I'd go with GSU to finish 3rd, but Wofford and Furman are both better than I expected.
MocsMania: I GUESS I'll go with Georgia Southern. The Citadel appears to me to be stapled into  last place despite the best efforts of Groeselle. But Wofford and Furman both have been decent. I'm beginning to think that I may have been overrating Furman earlier this year (they looked good against Elon, but not great last week), but Wofford and Georgia Southern both look like good teams to me. Both teams look like they will be tough outs for anyone in the conference. I picked GSU in the preseason to finish third, so I guess I'll stick with them for third place for now. They really showed up this weekend against Chattanooga and Appalachian State, the two North favorites. They need to prove they can take it to the road.

TheSportsArsenal: If I had to guess today, I would pick Wofford would finish third in the SoCon South, assuming the Terriers can shoot the ball fairly well and don't wear out their guards over the course of the season.

UNCGBasketballFan: I think Ga Southern may have thrown a wrench into that scenario this weekend. However, if we're using this assumption, I go ahead and say Ga Southern.

 
In response to the UNCG players tweets this week about the fans (go to this link from DavidsonCats if you don't know about it- discussion on DavidsonCats),  what are your thoughts on athletes using Twitter to vent?

DavidsonCats: College athletes should know better than to vent in social media.  It has caused schools to get investigated and sanctioned by the NCAA.  It caused an Elon football player some problems just this season.  I'm stunned that the coach/AD/chancellor/whoever didn't jump on the UNCG players this week. 

MocsMania: It is mind boggling that athletes continue to go out there and do this sort of thing to me. The UNCG players are just the latest example. An Elon football player got kicked off the team earlier this year for comments he made on Twitter. (Not sure about  how that story ended and if he got reinstated.) Why did UNCG not respond with at least some sort of suspension for the players for acting out like this? How can you let the players tell the hardcore fans that they are not real fans? At the same time, I kind of get the players responses. It must hurt a bit to be in the situation to hear that negativity swirling around your program. Still, you just can't insult the fans. It goes against everything about athletics (unless, apparently, you are Roy Williams). I don't get venting on Twitter. Venting on Facebook is a little bit better, because that is a little bit more controlled, depending on who your "friends" are. But you can't put negative stuff about your fan base or coaching staff out for public consumption. At least, you shouldn't.

TheSportsArsenal: I am frequently surprised by the lack of awareness (if not downright naïveté) young people have when it comes to social media. You would think the younger generation would have a better understanding of the public nature of things like Facebook and Twitter and the concept of something "going viral", but to a significant degree that isn't the case. That isn't just restricted to athletes, though.

UNCGBasketballFan: I was absolutely floored to see what those guys wrote on Twitter. I was (and still am) furious about it. I shut down my blog for a bit b/c I was quite concerned that I was going to post something that I would eventually regret. I also shut it down b/c I felt like I shouldn't spend my time doing anything for that program if there was absolutely no appreciation for my work. Apparently word has made it back to them or someone close to the program b/c at least one of the Twitter accounts is now protected. I'm still left with tons of questions. First, why are players going on message boards after a 22 point loss to your rival? What were you expecting to read on there? I honestly don't remember what all was written on the deleted thread. I know part of it was me questioning if our team was really ready to play. Everyone sitting near me at the game commented on how "amped up" A&T was before that contest. So, it wasn't like I invented something to be angry about. But then for a couple of players (and a former one) to take to Twitter to blast the part of the fan base that actually still cares about basketball at G was just mind bogglin. Compared to most SoCon schools, UNCG has a large student body and a large alumni base living all in the triad and they still have trouble drawing any major numbers at the coliseum. I think it's safe to call the UNCG fan base apathetic. So, to give a big (digital) middle finger to the part that is showing up every night and is hardcore about the program makes no sense to me.

 

Also if I were a coach of a team that might be starting to worry about my current employment, I think it might be in my best interest to keep my players from making very public statements that might reflect poorly on my team and my university. You can delete posts on Twitter, but it's impossible to delete them if they've already made their way into other parts of the Internet.

 
So we've played a couple of games in the conference season. The South was far better than the North a year ago. The North was supposed to be a little bit better than the South heading into the year this year. Which division do you believe is better, top to bottom?

DavidsonCats: The current Sagarin/Pomeroy/RPI numbers all agree that the South is the stronger division.  Of course, there is some bias in these numbers based on prior seasons.  I thought that the North would be significantly stronger than the South this season. So far, I'm wrong.  The South is 3-1 in head-to-head games.  Wofford and Furman were expected to be dreadful, but are playing pretty well.  Davidson and CofC are both better than anticipated.  ASU and Chattanooga were the popular picks in the preseason.  They are a combined 1-3 and both took beatings at GSU.  But Chattanooga gave CofC all they handle in Charleston and had many chances to win.  I think the head-to-head game total between the divisions this year will be very close.
MocsMania: Count me as one who thought the North would be slightly better this year than the South. Count me as one that has been completely disappointed with the North's play so far this year. When looking at the Mocs early struggles, I have looked around at the rest of the North, and (outside of Elon) thought that no one is playing well enough to have clearly established themselves as better than the Mocs. That's how rotten the North has been. At the same time, College of Charleston has been better than expected preseason (when I picked them to finish second, but a distant second), and Furman and Wofford have exceeded expectations, and Georgia Southern proved this weekend that they are not underperforming. The South is better- for now. I expect the North to come back after the New Year and win the head-to-head, but based on what we've seen, I have no real reason to believe that.

TheSportsArsenal: The south is the better division. It has the two best teams. Elon is the only team in the north division to distinguish itself so far this season. Chattanooga was supposed to carry the flag for the north but has been disappointing. Wofford and GSU could be a little better than expected and UNCG might be worse.

UNCGBasketballFan: At this point, the south looks a lot better than the North. Chattanooga, UNCG and ASU have all been disappointments to the North to some degree. Meanwhile, GSU, Wofford and Furman all look better than was earlier predicted. 

Battle of North vs. South- 12-4-11

Saturday's Scores
Chattanooga (N) 85
College of Charleston (S) 87

Appalachian State (N) 62
Georgia Southern (S) 73

at North
North- 1
South- 0

at South
North- 0
South- 3

Overall
North- 1
South- 3

ANALYSIS

All the home teams have won so far, so even though the South holds a commanding lead, it may not be quite as commanding as people would have thought since the home team has won every game. Plus, there are 48 games between the two divisions, so there are still 44 games left. So three wins doesn't mean much yet. That being said, it's a bit surprising that the South is leading. Most would have thought it would be 3-1 North right, with Appy and Chattanooga both beating GSU. But the Eagles pulled them both out.

College of Charleston 87, Mocs 85 (2OT)

FOUR FACTORS

eFG%
Mocs- 53.6%
Charleston- 47.1%
Advantage- Mocs

TO%
Mocs- 20.4%
Charleston- 14.4%
Advantage- Charleston

OR%
Mocs- 14.6%
Charleston- 22.9%
Advantage- Charleston

FTRate
Mocs- 20.3%
Charleston- 45.6%
Advantage- Charleston

FT%
Mocs- 78.6%
Charleston- 74.2%
Advantage- Mocs

3PtRate
Mocs- 37.7%
Charleston- 63.2%

PLAYER RATER

Overall
1) Chris Early 30.9
2) Keegan Bell 30.5
3) Ricky Taylor 20.9
3) Dontay Hampton 20.9
5) Rico White 19.0
6) Omar Wattad 16.2
7) Drazen Zlovaric 8.9
8) Jahmal Burroughs 5.2
9) Z Mason -0.9

Per 40
1) Dontay Hampton 52.3
2) Rico White 42.1
3) Chris Early 29.4
4) Ricky Taylor 27.0
5) Keegan Bell 25.9
6) Jahmal Burroughs 20.8
7) Omar Wattad 17.0
8) Drazen Zlovaric 8.1
9) Z Mason -9.0

ANALYSIS

The Mocs did so many things well for the majority of this game, it was shame to watch it all slip away in the closing moments.

Here's the biggest problem the Mocs are still facing- they are not shooting the ball too well yet. They missed several shots close to the basket in the first half that should not have been missed. The Mocs could have lead by double digits at the half if some of those shots had fallen, making it much more difficult for the Cougars to come back in the second half.

Secondly- the Mocs are still allowing too many offensive rebounds and are not getting enough of their own. The Mocs only collected 14.6% of their own misses, while the Cougars got 22.9% of their misses. That was a huge difference in this game. Second chance points were 9-5 in favor of the Cougars, which is not a huge total, but in a two point game that goes to double overtime, it is plenty enough of a difference.

Also, Drazen Zlovaric was the guy who missed a lot of those close shots. He went 2 for 8 on the afternoon. The Mocs need him to make some of those shots. He is a talented guy that just isn't quite comfortable yet. As he gets more comfortable, he will be significantly better. He needs to get there quick, but maybe by January when conference play really heats up, he will be much improved.

The Mocs certainly allowed Trent Wiedeman to beat them on the inside, but Adejhi Baru was held in check. The Mocs sagged off of the shooters and dared them to shoot for a lot of the game. They did that. The Cougars shot 43 threes on the game out of 68 total shots. They also got to the free throw line 31 times. So the Cougars shot more one point shots than two point shots on the game. That is really an unusual stat.

Keegan Bell had a triple double for the day with 12 points, ten rebounds, and ten assists. That was a nice solid performance. Omar Wattad still looks out of sorts. Chris Early and Ricky Taylor combined to shoot 7 out of 9 on three pointers. Rico White and Dontay Hampton both connected on both of their three point tries for the game. White really looked good out there. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable as the season progresses. He and Hampton both seem to have a nice calming effect on the Mocs when they are in the game. They will be very nice pieces next year for the Mocs starting lineup (possibly).

The Mocs defense was back tonight. They held the Cougars to under 39% shooting from the floor for the game. If not for the free throws, the Mocs would have won this game.

I'm not particularly into moral victories, but there are some things that this game proves. It proves that the Mocs can play with the best teams in the SoCon, because the Cougars are certainly in the Top Two. It gives the Mocs some positives to build on as they head into the non-conference again despite going 0-2. Georgia Southern also beat Appalachian State tonight by 11, in a game that was a 20 point game at halftime. So maybe the Mocs are not that far behind the other North teams, despite their very slow start.

The Mocs have played (excluding Kennesaw State and Georgia Southern, both of which got relatively close in the final minutes due to furious rallies) four really tight games this year, and just come up with one win. The other two games mentioned were not blowouts, so the Mocs are 1-5 in close games this year. This goes against what happened last year, when the Mocs won virtually every close game. The breaks are going against them, and it is unfortunate for the won-loss record, but could mean that the breaks work out for them later on this year.

The Mercer game becomes huge to continue to build on this performance. We'll have to wait and see if it comes.

GO MOCS!

College of Charleston Preview: Losing Touch

I don't like College of Charleston much, and I've made not secret of that over the years. I don't know that I dislike them as much as some Cougar fans seem to dislike this blog and other Moc fans.

But- and make absolutely no mistake about this- the Cougars are the best team the Mocs have faced yet this year. Yep- better than Indiana. Certainly better than Butler. Clearly better than Kennesaw State, Savannah State, Warren Wilson, and Gardner-Webb. More than likely better than Georgia Southern by a pretty good margin. So this is an absolutely astronomical challenge for the Mocs.

The Cougars feature Trent Wiedeman, Antwaine Wiggins, and Adjehi Baru inside. How did UCF beat this team? By slowing down those guys. The only chance any team has is to slow down those guys and hope that they can somehow force the Cougars to miss some shots. Not that that is likely to work. Andrew Lawrence has made 14 of 28 three pointers, for 50% shooting. So, maybe letting them shoot isn't the best. Just got to hope they are cold. Wiggins has made 12 of 34 threes so far this year and is shooting nearly 49% from the floor. He is averaging 17.5 points per game and 5.8 rebounds. Honestly, he is the favorite for the player of the year at this point.

Wiedeman is second on the team in scoring with 11.8 points per game and 8.0 rebounds per game. He leads the team in rebounding. He is a very solid player. He has improved this year and become an even more solid player. Baru is second on the team in rebounding with 6.3 rebounds per game, and is scoring 8.5 points per game. Watching him, you can see some improvement on offense happening. He is going to be much better as the season goes along. He is a really talented player. He is living up to the hype so far. Maybe not the Player of the Year hype, but he is living up to the hype of Newcomer of the Year.

Matt Sundberg is still bouncing back from not playing last year. He has just been OK. Truthfully, if the Cougars want to advance a long way in the NCAA Tournament (which they have the talent to do), they probably need Sundberg to get a little bit more improved.

Lawrence is not only a great shooter, but also leads the team in assists with 5.0 per game.

The Cougars are not a tremendous defensive team. They are OK on that end, but are probably not quite as good as some of the other SoCon teams, such as Wofford, Furman, Elon, and Davidson. They are good, though. They have allowed between 57 and 74 in every game this year, only more than 70 only once- in their loss to UCF. They are good, but not great.

On offense, they are 80th in the country in scoring and 39th in field goal percentage. They are not a great rebounding team, which may be the one place the Mocs have a slight edge...if they can turn around their recent trend to really struggle in that department.

The Mocs have no match-up advantage against the Cougars with the way they are playing. The good thing is that the Mocs do have the ability to match-up inside with the Cougars a bit. They have more ability to match-up down there with Zlovaric, Early, Bryant, Mason, and Burroughs than many teams in the SoCon.  They still do not have an advantage there though. There is a chance that if Bell and Wattad and Taylor were playing better they could have a slight edge at those positions combined- but they aren't playing well enough at the moment. Therefore, they do not match-up well with the Cougars.

KEYS TO THE GAME

--Rebounding. The Mocs have been beaten on the boards in their last three games, and lost key offensive rebounds to both Gardner-Webb and Georgia Southern. They will have to do significantly better against College of Charleston to manage to hang around in this one.
--Shooting. The Mocs will need to be able to hold down the Cougars shooting from long range to be able to clog up the lane. A little bit of luck on some missed threes wouldn't hurt the Mocs any.
--Turnovers. The Mocs need to protect the ball.
--Let the athleticism show. The Cougars have a lot of athleticism. So do the Mocs. The Mocs need to let their athleticism show in this one, and match the Cougars intensity.
--Put the first three weeks behind them. The Mocs don't want to have to keep on reliving these last three weeks. They need to get over it and play the way they are capable. If they do, they can hang around in this one.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Lawrence will score at least 25 points.
--Wiggins will not have his best game of the year, but will still be too much for any Moc to handle.
--Baru will have his best offensive game yet.
--Bell will continue to struggle.
--College of Charleston 79, Mocs 56. The Mocs are not playing even remotely well enough to think that they can come up with this win. I'd love it if they proved me wrong, but I don't see it at this point. The Cougars are really close to being a Top 25 team, and if they are a Top 25 team, the Mocs don't have a shot without playing their best game in years.

GO MOCS!

Georgia Southern 84, Mocs 76

FOUR FACTORS (plus two)

eFG%
Mocs- 57.8%
Georgia Southern- 60.8%
Advantage- Georgia Southern

TO%
Mocs- 19.8%
Georgia Southern- 25.5%
Advantage- Mocs

OR%
Mocs- 29.0%
Georgia Southern- 38.3%
Advantage- Georgia Southern

FTRate
Mocs- 27.6%
Georgia Southern- 28.3%
Advantage- Georgia Southern

FT%
Mocs- 56.3%
Georgia Southern- 64.7%
Advantage- Georgia Southern

3PtRate
Mocs- 39.7%
Georgia Southern- 38.3%

PLAYER RATER

Overall
1) Ricky Taylor 21.7
2) Omar Wattad 15.3
3) Drazen Zlovaric 14.3
4) Dontay Hampton 12.1
5) Keegan Bell 11.2
6) Lance Stokes 10.5
7) Z Mason 9.4
8) Chris Early 8.3
9) Rico White 7.3
10) Jahmal Burroughs 5.5
11) Jared Bryant 4.2

Per 40
1) Lance Stokes 70.0
2) Dontay Hampton 60.5
3) Ricky Taylor 34.7
4) Drazen Zlovaric 31.7
5) Jared Bryant 21.0
6) Z Mason 19.8
7) Omar Wattad 19.7
8) Chris Early 19.5
9) Rico White 19.5
10) Jahmal Burroughs 15.7
11) Keegan Bell 11.5

ANALYSIS

Well, this is not exactly where the Mocs expected to be at this point. Sitting at 2-5, the negativity that is beginning to envelope the program is stronger than ever.

That being said, the Mocs hung tough in this game. Unlike the Mocs losses last year, after falling behind by 15 and 16 points in the second half, they fought back and made it closer. They narrowed the final score at the end and kept on fighting for it. That was pleasant to see. A team with a little bit of fight is not such a bad thing.

Unfortunately, that is the most positive thing that can be said about the Mocs at this point. Wattad went to the free throw line for three free throws late in the game....and missed all three. Zlovaric was all alone for a breakaway dunk....and missed it. Give the Mocs four of the five points there, and the Mocs only lose by four points, and maybe the pressure gets to the Eagles.

The Eagles did not turn the ball over much in the first half. They kept from turning the ball over, and they were very efficient at scoring. JR kept on mentioning how few points per game Georgia Southern was averaging, but the Eagles offense had been effective when they could protect the ball so far this year. That's why they looked so effective in the first half offensively.

The Mocs continued the bugaboo that has been biting them for the last three games. They could not come up with a big rebound. Georgia Southern came up with several huge offensive rebounds. Even my kids who are five and just started watching basketball this year noticed it- they said, "How come the Mocs do not get the rebound when Georgia Southern misses a shot?" It was a very valid question.

There were other positives, I suppose. Namely, Lance Stokes. Stokes came into the game when it appeared over, and suddenly, the Mocs cut the lead down sharply, and he dominated the final few minutes of the game. He played outstanding basketball. He had been coming back from an ankle sprain and looked like he may deserve to be playing consistently for the Mocs. He may need a lot more minutes.

Ricky Taylor also played OK. Zlovaric was not active enough. He scored eleven, but only had one rebound. That is not the type of performance Zlovaric needs to have for the Mocs to be consistently successful.

This was a disappointing loss for the Mocs. There is time to get this turned around. But they need to start. It may not happen on Saturday against College of Charleston, but it needs to start next weekend against Mercer. That is when things need to get going. The team looks a little lost on offense, but the defense has been OK.  They did not close on defense very well against Georgia Southern, looking a little lethargic at times. The Mocs continue to not be able to do what they should be able to do on the boards. There is PLENTY to fix. A road trip may not be a time to get everything done. But- next week is when they need to go to work.

As the line for the discount on tickets goes, "IT'S TIME!"

GO MOCS!

Double Dribbles-12-2-11

1) Truthfully, it has been a pleasure to write this blog so far this year. It's nice to see the page views up on the blog, and know that some people are out there reading it. It's nice to provide some coverage for the SoCon, which does not get much national coverage. Truthfully,the Mocs are driving me a little nuts at the moment, so it's nice to be following the SoCon so closely and have other interests around the league to keep me a little entertained. Note that everything I write is not related to the Mocs. When I write something like, "This team is beatable," I am not referring to how the Mocs would beat a team. I am referring to how anyone could beat them.  So let me just say, thank you to all of the people that have been reading this blog over the last several weeks. You all are making this season that would have frustrated me enjoyable.

2) Appalachian State's Omar Carter showed why he was the Preseason Player of the Year. After games against Milligan and East Carolina where he combined to shoot 1 of 11, six points and nine rebounds. In the SoCon opener against UNC-Greensboro, the Mountaineer player made 9 of 15 shots with 24 points and 12 rebounds. Carter has potential to be a really special player, and it was only a matter of time before that player showed up for a game. Tonight was that night. He can certainly still win the Player of the Year- particularly if he puts up more nights like this against other SoCon teams.

Mocs vs. Georgia Southern Recap Tomorrow

My wife has been sick today, and while I made time for the Mocs game to listen to it, I have not had time to write about the Mocs game. I am planning on covering the Mocs games tomorrow. In other words, I will write a review of the Mocs loss to Georgia Southern tomorrow night, and a preview of the Chattanooga-CofC game for Saturday.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Recap: Davidson 72, Wofford 69

Honestly, I did not get to watch a tremendous amount of this game (I was watching the Mocs game). I do plan on watching the game on replay tomorrow night off of ESPN3.

Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks poured it in. They scored 26 and 23 respectively. No one else scored in double digits. JP Kuhlman did add 9 points with 6 rebounds and 4 assists, so he played well.

Wofford shot 52.7% from the floor, which was more than a little surprising. The Davidson defense has been very good so far this year, and the Terriers offense has been struggling. But the Terriers still managed to shoot at that clip.

The effort is there for the Terriers. They appear to be on their way to rebuilding much faster than anyone thought they would. It has been a very good start for the Terriers. There is an interesting battle that is going to happen between Wofford, Furman, and Georgia Southern for third in the South. It is going to be anyone's guess which team is going to win that battle.

Davidson has not played as well lately, struggling a bit with UNC-Wilmington and with Wofford tonight. Now, wins are wins. So there really can't be any complaining about that. That being said, they will probably need to play a little bit better in the coming weeks against Kansas and Vanderbilt, which are the games that will determine just how much the Wildcats are in the at large race for the NCAA Tournament.

Wofford is showing a lot of pride and is proving to be a much tougher out than most people expected heading into the year.

Battle of North vs. South- 12-1-11

Todays Scores
Chattanooga (N) 76
Georgia Southern (S) 84

at North
South- 0
North- 1

at South
North- 0
South- 1

Overall
North- 1
South- 1

ANALYSIS

Nothing too shocking so far. Both home teams have won. Honestly, this does not get interesting until a road team or two win a game.

Double Dribbles- 12-1-11

1) Elon's win over Furman proved a couple of things. For one, Furman is better than people expect. This game was not always pretty- in fact, it was ugly at times. My guess is that both teams will play games like this. They make the other team look out of sorts. They both play solid defense, and both try to take the other team out of what they are doing offensively. Obviously. That's the point of defense, right? But few teams do it better than these two teams do. The Phoenix are just a little bit better at it. But the Paladins are a threat for the third place spot in the South division, which at this point looks pretty wide open. Depending on how Wofford looks against Davidson on Thursday, Furman may have even turned into the favorite for that third spot.

2) The SoCon season opens on Thursday night for the remaining ten teams. There are previews on this blog of the Chattanooga-Georgia Southern game and the Davidson-Wofford game. Western Carolina's trip to Samford is absolutely critical for the Catamounts to get back on the winning track. The Citadel heads to College of Charleston in a great rivalry match-up, and UNCG faces off with Appalachian State. This is a big game for the Spartans to try to get back on track in a huge division road game. Everything that has happened up until now doesn't matter unless your team name is Davidson or College of Charleston. It all begins today. I, for one, can't wait to start seeing the conference races play out a little bit. It won't play out much this weekend...but it will be enough for me.

Georgia Southern Preview: Opening Day....Again

The Mocs would like nothing more than to start over again.
So here we go. It's opening day....again.

The Mocs need to forget that this season has started. They need to forget that any of the early season struggles have taken place.

They are 0-0.

And they are.

In SoCon play, the Mocs are 0-0. They get a chance to get to 1-0 with a win over Georgia Southern on Thursday night. Coming up with it may be easier said than done.

Georgia Southern won just one SoCon game a year ago, but was still picked to finish third in the South this year. They have won only one game so far this year, but played Wake Forest close. They were unable to do the same against South Florida. The Eagles are trying to prove that they are better than they were a year ago, and will get a golden opportunity against the Mocs on Thursday night.

Willie Powers is one of the top players in the SoCon. He has not been unstoppable, but he is the best player that the Eagles have, and he is the heart and soul of the team. He is averaging 10.6 points per game. He is second on the team in rebounding with 4.8 rebounds per game. He leads the team with 4.8 assists per game, and is second on the team with 1.8 steals per game. He is shooting nearly 56% from the field and 40% from three point range, while shooting 75% from the free throw line.

Ben Drayton III also averages 10.6 points per game, while being second on the team in assists with 3.0 and first in steals with 2.0.

The best three point shooter is Jelani Hewitt. Hewitt is shooting 43% from three point range, while shooting 83% from the free throw line. He is averaging 11.6 points per game, with 3.8 rebounds per game and 1.6 assists per game.

Eric Ferguson is shooting 51.6% from the field. He leads the team in scoring with 16.0 points per game and 7.2 rebounds per game.

The four players mentioned so far all are guards. Ferguson is 6-7. Ferguson is a tremendous player, and will be a valuable piece of the puzzle throughout the year. But let's not kid ourselves, the key to this team is how Drayton and Powers perform.

The key to this game is how Drayton and Powers perform when they are matched up with Keegan Bell. The Eagles last year had a terrible time with turnovers. They have struggled at times with that this year as well. That's the main reason that they rank 101st in field goal percentage while being 219th in scoring.

The Mocs are only 262nd in points per game, and 317th in field goal percentage. The Mocs have played solid defense, and caused plenty of turnovers in their win over Savannah State. They have rebounded the ball reasonably well. They did not come up with the big rebounds against Gardner-Webb on Sunday afternoon. They will need to come up with the big rebounds in this game.

KEYS TO THE GAME

--Rebounding. The Mocs were dominated on the boards in the key moments against Gardner-Webb. They have to come up with the big rebounds to win this game.
--Turnovers. The Mocs need to force plenty of turnovers to be able to find a way to slow down this Eagles offense.
--Bell vs. Powers. This could be the best point guard match-up in the SoCon.
--Drazen Zlovaric. He needs to dominate on the inside. He should be able to in this match-up.
--Ferguson vs. Chris Early. This should be a match-up that Early likes. Ferguson may like it too. Should be interesting.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs have not looked good yet this year, but let's not be confused. Georgia Southern has only beaten Webber International, a non-D1. Both teams will play better than they have played yet this year. They will need to in order to win.
--Zlovaric will have his best game. (Do I have to say this every game?)
--Ferguson will beat out Early in the head to head match-up.
--Bell and Powers will both play well.
--Omar Wattad will not still not play as well as he is supposed to be playing.
--Georgia Southern 67, Mocs 61. The Mocs are not playing well enough to find a way to win a road game right now. The Eagles will play inspired basketball in front of their home crowd and come up with a solid win over the Mocs at home. This will hurt the Mocs a lot in their quest to come up with a split on this road trip. They could come up with the win, but it would take their best performance yet.

GO MOCS!

Battle of North vs. South

Wednesday Scores in North vs. South
Furman (S) 70
Elon (N) 77

at South
South- 0
North- 0

at North
South- 0
North- 1
Overall
North- 1
South- 0

Rankings- 11-30-11

RPI

1) Davidson 30
2) College of Charleston 61
3) Elon 121
4) Wofford 152
5) Furman 211
6) Western Carolina 224
7) Samford 252
8) UNC-Greensboro 297
9) Georgia Southern 302
10) Appalachian State 310
11) Chattanooga 323
12) The Citadel 332

SoCon Rank: 23

KenPom

1) Davidson 80
2) College of Charleston 97
3) Elon 204
4) Appalachian State 220
5) Furman 229
6) Wofford 232
7) Western Carolina 242
8) Chattanooga 267
9) Samford 273
10) The Citadel 286
11) Georgia Southern 293
12) UNC-Greensboro 295

Sagarin

1) Davidson 40
2) College of Charleston 41
3) Elon 165
4) Furman 193
5) Appalachian State 204
6) Wofford 214
7) Western Carolina 229
8) Samford 275
9) Georgia Southern 295
10) The Citadel 310
11) UNC-Greensboro 311
12) Chattanooga 321

SoCon Rank: 23

ANALYSIS

The rankings are gaining more and more meaning. College of Charleston and Davidson are clearly the class of the conference, just in case anyone was wondering. The SoCon is ranked 23th and 24th, which is very low. The SoCon needs to move up in the RPI rankings for Charleston or Davidson to really be able to get an at large bid. That means that all these teams need to start winning. Chattanooga has lost to some bad teams, and that has really hurt the overall conference rank. Are the Mocs really the worst team in the SoCon? So far, it's hard to argue with it. Elon as the clear third team in all the rankings. Clearly, the Phoenix are very good and a real threat to win the SoCon.

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Preview: Davidson at Wofford

Time: 7:00
TV: None (ESPN3)

Wofford is the proud, two-time defending SoCon champs, even if they return virtually no one from last year. The Terriers have rotated back and forth with wins and losses so far this year. They lost to Georgia, then beat Emory & Henry, then lost to Wisconsin, beat Bradley, lost to UMKC in overtime, then beat Prairie View. So far, they have had an interesting twist.

Davidson beat Guillford, then Richmond, before losing to Duke after leading at halftime, then beat Presbyterian and UNC-Wilmington.

Wofford is relying on Kevin Giltner and Brad Loesing. Giltner is averaging 38.8 minutes per game, while Loesing is playing 39.5 minutes per game. That is a lot of minutes.

Giltner is averaging 14.3 points per game and is shooting 40.3% from the field. Loesing is averaging 11.7 points per game, and leads the team with 5.3 assists per game and with 1.8 steals per game. Lee Skinner leads the team in rebounds with 6.0 rebounds per game, and is second on the team with 2.5 assists per game. Giltner has made 12 out of 39 threes on the year, which is not a good percentage, but is the most makes of any player on the team.

The Terriers are 329th in the country in scoring and 310 in field goal percentage. They are great defensively, allowing a season high 69 points to Wisconsin.

Davidson will try to play solid defense. They have allowed more than 67 points only once, when they allowed 82 to Duke.

De'Mon Brooks is the Wildcats leading scorer. He is averaging 15.8 points per game, and 7.0 rebounds per game to lead the team. He is only playing 22.6 minutes per game, which is sixth on the team. Still, Brooks has established himself as one of the better players in the SoCon, even if he does not often get mentioned in that breath.

JP Kuhlman was the SoCon Player of the Week last week. He is averaging 14.2 points per game. Nik Cochran is averaging 10.4 points per game, with a team high 2.8 assists per game. Chris Czerapowicz is the teams second leading rebounder and has made more three pointers than anyone else on the team. Jake Cohen is tied for second in rebounding with 5.6 rebounds per game. He is also averaging 1.6 blocks per game to lead the team, along with 9.2 points per game.

Davidson is a team that does not appear to have a lot of superstars, but they have plenty of guys that are very talented.

This game looks to be a good old-fashioned defensive battle. Both teams should find scoring difficult. In the SoCon opener for both schools, Wofford should come ready to make a statement that they are ready to defend their crown. Davidson needs to make a similar statement that they are ready to win the SoCon. Beating the two time defending champs in their building would be a nice opening statement.

KEYS TO THE GAME

--Can Wofford play off their home crowd with energy and help come up with the win for the Terriers?
--Will Davidson be able to score against the Terriers defense?
--Giltner and Loesing need to have tremendous efforts for the Terriers to win.
--Cohen needs to step up for the Wildcats. He is supposed to be their best player, and the numbers don't add up...yet.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Cohen will have his best game of the season.
--Neither team will get into the seventies in points.
--Loesing will show why he is the senior leadership for the Terriers.
--Davidson 63, Wofford 58. The Terriers will put up a fight all the way to the end, proving that they are going to be a tough out in SoCon play, but Davidson will come up with a way to get a big road win.

Double Dribbles- 11-30-11

1) Davidson's JP Kuhlman won the SoCon Player of the Week Award- probably the least deserving winner to date. I mean, let's face it. His team just played one game. He scored 21 points in that game (not like he put up 30), had seven rebounds, two assists, and had a huge rebound and two free throws in the final seconds against UNC-Wilmington to clinch the victory. Kuhlman is a solid player, but really got lucky to win it this week. He could easily wind up on the All SoCon team at the end of the year, so this is not a rip on Kuhlman- just on his credentials.

2) Davidson and College of Charleston both find themselves in the Top 70 in RPI according to Live-RPI.com. But it is more interesting than that when you dig a little deeper. Both are projected to be in the Top 60 according to the RPI Forecast on the same site.That means that both teams could find themselves squarely on the at large bubble this year if they can come up with any out of conference victories. Richmond was a nice win for Davidson, but beating Vanderbilt next week or Kansas on December 19 would be gigantic, and getting a win in the BracketBuster would also be nice. For the Cougars, Louisville, Tennessee, and the BracketBuster still loom. People think that the best way for the SoCon to get an at large bid is to have two deserving teams, and one to knock off the other one in the SoCon Final. This situation may be coming together with these two teams. They need to avoid bad losses. That's the most important thing at this point for them.

December Preview: A Hint?

Sometimes a hint is all the wrapping a gift needs.

OK- so that's a little cheesy, but what I wouldn't do for just a hint that the Mocs were on their way to turning this ship around. I don't even have a hint at this point. It is completely empty at this stage.

Of course, there is always hope. It begins Thursday. The schedule is not easy this month though. Spalding and Hiwassee are at home, while trips to Georgia Southern, College of Charleston, Mercer, and Kentucky all come before the Dr Pepper Classic, which will feature Longwood and then either Hampton or Utah Valley.

Easiest Game: Hiwassee, December 21. This game against an in-state team may not be simple, but it is not going to be difficult either. Let's put it this way- Warren Wilson beat Hiwassee 84-80 in overtime. Given that the Mocs beat Warren Wilson by 52, this should be a reasonably easy game for the Mocs to come up with the win. The most difficult thing could be that it is a noon start on the last day before Christmas break.

Toughest Game: at Kentucky, December 17. This is a no-brainer. The Wildcats are the best team in the country at this point, and  they have taken out plenty of teams by a lot of points. Kentucky may take the Mocs lightly, but the Wildcats still have infinitely more talent than the Mocs. There could be something strange happening that day, but the Wildcats are by far the toughest opponent the Mocs face all year- much less in December.

Most Important Game: at Georgia Southern, December 1. The only reason this game sneaks in ahead of the Dr Pepper Classic is because it is a conference game. The Mocs desperately need to find a way to come up with a split on their opening road trip of conference play against Georgia Southern and College of Charleston. This is the more likely game to win. If the Mocs were playing better then the College of Charleston game would be more important, but they are not playing well enough to think at the moment that they can beat the Cougars. They will have to play their best game of the year to beat the Eagles.

Predicted Record: 3-5. Wins over Hiwassee and Spalding are givens, as is a loss to Kentucky. The other five games are at least partially up in the air. The way the Mocs have played so far, there is no reason to think they can win more than one  more game- probably coming against Longwood in the Dr Pepper Classic. But with their current play, beating Utah Valley, Hampton, Mercer, College of Charleston, or Georgia Southern is a stretch. I picked them to go 4-2 last month, and they came up way short of that. If they come up way short of my expectations this month, then this season will be completely in the tank by the time the calendar turns to 2012.

Dear Mocs,

Prove me wrong. After all the preseason expectations, now is the time to prove me wrong.

Signed,

The Administration

Just give me a hint that some good things are coming.

GO MOCS!

Double Dribbles-11-29-11

1) Really, UNCG? Really? That was not a good showing at all against North Carolina A&T. They got beat in a road game in their home stadium by 22 points. They allowed the Aggies to shoot over 57% from the floor. The Spartans have not advanced as far as I expected them to this year. They are still struggling to find themselves, and could find themselves in serious trouble this week when they go to both Appalachian State and Western Carolina. This is a must win week for the Spartans, to at least split the two games. Unless there is improvement, they will be hard pressed to get that split.

2) Furman's trip to Elon on Wednesday night will open SoCon league play. The Paladins and the Phoenix are two of the more pleasant surprises in the  league right now. Only one can maintain that level of excellence. Furman has played excellent defense so far, but have not really played a challenging scheduling. Elon has played a much tougher schedule, but has also played good defense and showed that they are a real threat to win the league. The Battle of North vs. South will also get underway in this game. The South won fairly big last year. The North was expected to win it this year in the preseason, but based on performances so far, there is little reason to think that the North will be able to turn it around against the South this year. But it should at least be more interesting this year. Maybe we should come up with a name for some mythical trophy between the North and South. Ideas?

Heat-O-Meter: Trouble Lurks Yet Again

Coach John Shulman has found himself in plenty of tight spots before. But he may have never been in a situation quite this tight.

An underachieving 2-4 team. Next three games on the road against three decent teams. Two years left on his contract. Fewer than 2500 fans at each of the last three home games.

Uh-oh.

Apathy seems to be setting in to a degree for the Mocs fanbase. And this is the most dangerous thing to Shulman's tenure.

At 2-4, the Mocs would be OK- if they could find a way to win 2 of these next 3 on the road against Georgia Southern, College of Charleston, and Mercer. This is a very difficult task.

The team is playing with the same inconsistency that has plagued them in recent years. Actually, I take that back. They are playing very consistently now for the first time in years- it's just consistently not good basketball. It has been brutally ugly for the Mocs so far.

This does not bode well for Shulman. He will obviously not be gone until the end of the year at the earliest. He would probably be able to get another year with a mildly successful season. But mildly successful may have meant 20 wins this year. And the Mocs seem like a far cry from that at the moment.

HEAT-O-METER: 9.0. Shulman is in big trouble at the moment. The apathy is the thing that seems most troubling to me for him. The Mocs have come back from bad Novembers before, and they will need to get off to a great start this December. Can they beat Georgia Southern and/or College of Charleston? That could change the trajectory quickly. But right now, Shulman may be in trouble. I hate this, because I like Coach Shulman and think that he has taken an undue amount of flack for certain things that have happened. That being said, this season has not been acceptable yet. He knows he is on the hot seat. It's time for the team to show up and play like they know there is pressure.

GO MOCS!

November Review: Reset Button

The Mocs need a reset button.

The season that was supposed to be full of so much promise and so much hope has fallen on impossibly bad times. After the Mocs showed decent efforts against Indiana and Butler, they were coming home, expecting to win four straight home games against inferior competition.

Then it happened. The Mocs lost to Kennesaw State. Suddenly, all the air was let out of the Mocs balloon. They have not been able to get it back.

Not only have they followed that up with a nail-biter win over Savannah State, but also lost a close one to Gardner-Webb. The Mocs find themselves 2-4, when they were supposed to be 4-2. Not only that, but the close loss to Butler doesn't look so impressive right now. The Bulldogs barely beat Gardner-Webb, and struggled with Savannah State as well.

In other words, the close loss to Butler does not look so good right now.

The Mocs have already had two different starting lineups, from a team that was supposed to have one starting lineup all year long.

The Mocs have not been able to throw a ball into the ocean from five feet. They have struggled tremendously.

The Mocs have played good defense, but failed to box out at critical moments in the loss to Gardner-Webb. This was an especially difficult loss.

GRADE: D. There is no way to sugar coat this. The Mocs have not played well. They have not even played average basketball. They have played well below average. The only thing saving them right now is their solid defense, and the fact that they gutted a close win against Savannah State. There is some positives here- they are 1-3 in games that were within five points with five minutes left, something that the Mocs have done very well at under Coach Shulman. There is not an imminent turnaround here or anything, but the Mocs could be sitting here are 5-1 right now with a couple of shots falling, and we'd all feel pretty good. But with a couple of shots not falling, they could be 1-5 right now and they'd have an F grade. There are major concerns here that should not be washed over. In some ways, it is lucky that they are not 5-1, because then they would be ignoring their current ails. They need to turn it around- starting now.

GO MOCS!

Double Dribbles- 11-28-11

1) After the loss to UCF to open the Battle 4 Atlantis, Charleston played well, finishing fifth, beating UNC-Asheville and hammering Massachusetts. On top of that, UCF beat Connecticut before losing to Harvard in the championship game. So, College of Charleston had a very nice showing in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the end. They are continuing to prove that they probably deserve to be receiving votes in the AP and Coaches Poll at this point. Not saying they should be ranked, but they are certainly moving up in the college basketball world quickly. This really might be Bobby Cremins best team in Charleston.

2) Samford came up with their first win of the year on Saturday when they beat UT-Arlington 71-69. It was a road win, which was not bad for the Bulldogs. They had been ahead by as many as 22, but wound up blowing nearly the whole thing. The Bulldogs held on to win. When they shoot 51.1% from the field, they are not easy to beat. It was nice to get a win for the Bulldogs, but they proved that they need to shoot well to succeed in the SoCon.