Battle For the Fourth Bye- Looking Again

So here we are again.

On Thursday night, Appalachian State went on the road and stunned Georgia Southern, while Samford and Western Carolina lost to College of Charleston and Davidson. The Mountaineers looked like they were in good shape as they took control of the bye spot.

Then on Saturday, Samford won against The Citadel, Western Carolina beat Georgia Southern, and Davidson demolished the Mountaineers, leaving Samford in the lead again.

One thing that remains for sure- it really looks even more certain that Davidson, Elon, and College of Charleston will get byes. Davidson is 12-1, Elon is 9-3, while the Cougars are 10-3. That means that Elon has a full three game lead on the fifth place teams, which puts those three as near locks for a bye.

But the fourth bye is still up for grabs. Furman is not down three full games, so no longer is included on this list. The Citadel is down three and a half games, so is not included in the race. Also, Wofford and Georgia Southern are both two and a half games behind, so not going to be included for now. They are on hold. The could sneak back in, but for now, two games is the cut off.

That means that basically five teams from the North are battling for the fourth bye. They are all separated by a total of two games. This week presents several key games in the battle for the fourth bye. Which team gets there? We'll have to wait and see. Let's look at the week ahead for the contenders.

Samford (6-5)

at Chattanooga (Monday)
Wofford (Thursday)
at Furman (Saturday)

Appalachian State (6-6)

Furman (Monday)
at Elon (Thursday)
at UNCG (Sunday)

Western Carolina (6-6)

Wofford (Monday)
at UNCG (Thursday)
at Elon (Saturday)

UNCG (5-7)

Western Carolina (Thursday)
Appalachian State (Sunday)

Chattanooga (4-7)

Samford (Monday)
Furman (Thursday)
at Wofford (Saturday)

GAMES BETWEEN TEAMS FIGHTING FOR THE FOURTH BYE

Monday
Samford at Chattanooga

Thursday
Western Carolina at UNCG

Sunday
Appalachian State at UNCG

Another interesting things is that Wofford has games against Western Carolina, Samford, and Chattanooga this week. If they happen to win all three, they will be right in the race for the fourth bye. In theory, Furman could also be in the battle for the fourth bye, because they play Appalachian State, Chattanooga, and Samford. Georgia Southern is spending the weekend in Charleston against The Citadel and College of Charleston. They probably need to go at least 1-1 to keep in shot of getting the bye alive. We'll look more at Furman, Georgia Southern, and Wofford next week if their records indicate it's necessary.

In the mean time, this week presents some great opportunities at home for UNCG. If they beat Western Carolina and Appalachian State, they will have a wonderful chance to get the bye. Also, the week will really hinge on what happens Monday. Appalachian State against Furman and Western Carolina against Wofford are both huge games in the bye race. If Samford beats Chattanooga, they will all but eliminate the Mocs from the bye race, but if the Mocs can pull off the win, that would be the game that gets them really back into the race.

All in all, this week looks to be very compelling in the hunt for the bye.

Four Factors- College of Charleston

eFG%
Cougars- 52.9%
Mocs- 50.0%
Advantage- Cougars

TO%
Cougars- 14.1%
Mocs- 10.5%
Advantage- Mocs

OR%
Cougars- 19.4%
Mocs- 25.6%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Cougars- 40.4%
Mocs- 25.8%
Advantage- Cougars

3PA%
Cougars- 36.5%
Mocs- 35.5%

SoCon Pick 'Em Week Seven

Standings for Week Six is here. Check back Sunday to find out what the two point game is. Good luck!

Monday (picks are due by Monday at 6:00 PM Eastern)

Wofford at Western Carolina 7:00 PM
Samford at Chattanooga 7:30 PM
Furman at Appalachian State 8:00 PM

Thursday (picks are due by Thursday at 6:00 PM Eastern)

Appalachian State at Elon 7:00 PM
Western Carolina at UNCG 7:00 PM
Furman at Chattanooga 7:00 PM
Georgia Southern at The Citadel 7:05 PM
Davidson at College of Charleston 7:30 PM ESPN3
Wofford at Samford 8:00 PM

Saturday (picks are due by Saturday at 3:00 PM Eastern)

Samford at Furman 4:00 PM
Georgia Southern at College of Charleston 4:00 PM ESPN3
Western Carolina at Elon 7:00 PM
Chattanooga at Wofford 7:00 PM
Davidson at The Citadel 7:05 PM

Sunday (part of Week Eight, but included since it is on Sunday- pick is due by Sunday at 1:00 PM Eastern)

Appalachian State at UNCG 2:00 PM

SoCon Pick 'Em Standings Through Week Six

Standings
1) SoConJohn 53
2) Hugh Hughes 52
3t) JohnMoc1 50
3t) Muskie24 50
3t) DC_Int'l 50
6t) half-n-half 49
6t) David 49
6t) WildCock 49
9) GoalCat 48
10t) Clarkdr21 47
10t) T Dog 47
12) Bill Casey 46
13t) Jerry Love 44
13t) CougarSurf11 44
15t) DashSpartan 42
15t) Jay 42
17t) AP 41
17t) WinthropSpartan 41
19) Cujo 27
20) earle & patty 21
21t) GACoug 20
21t) BVGerd 20
23) Waitress 18
24) Mike 17
25t) ChasCougs 15
25t) bdf 15
27) Coug04 14
28) Chris 12
29) Joe 7
30) ElonFireFighter 6

WEEKLY WINNER
1) Bill Casey 10
1) Hugh Hughes 10
1) Clarkdr21 10

Battle of North vs. South- 2/9/13

Saturday Scores

Elon (N) 64
Furman (S) 60

College of Charleston (S) 71
Chattanooga (N) 68

UNCG (N) 50
Wofford (S) 59

Western Carolina (N) 71
Georgia Southern (S) 62

Appalachian State (N) 52
Davidson (S) 87

The Citadel (S) 67
Samford (N) 79

at North
North- 8
South- 8

at South
North- 12
South- 10

Overall
North- 20
South- 18

ANALYSIS

The North went 3-3 on Saturday. In other words, they survived this week at 6-6, and now have eight of the last ten games between the two divisions at home. They just need to go 5-5 in the last ten games. In other words, the North is in the best shape they could be heading into the last few weeks of this year. It would be hard for them to be in much better shape. With six games between the two divisions this week, including three games involving Wofford and three involving Furman, who are fourth and fifth in the South right now. If the North goes 5-1, they will lock up the battle. If the South goes 6-0, they would lock up 24 wins, which would be enough for them to retain the title of better division since they won it last year.

Review of McKenzie Arena

ArenaFanatic is reviewing McKenzie Arena tomorrow.

Check out his site here.

Check out his Twitter feed here.

I'll link to his review once it is up and ready to go. Also follow him on Twitter, as he will be tweeting throughout the day.

GO MOCS!

College of Charleston Preview: A Chance to Start Their Own Legacy

The Mocs Legends Weekend is this weekend, which means that the Mocs will be playing Saturday's game in front of plenty of former Mocs. The Mocs have had a lot of championship seasons over the years (ten NCAA tournament appearances in their Division 1 history of 35 years, even though it is just two in the last fifteen years) and some of those players have lived on in the minds of Chattanooga fans. Many of those players will be present on Saturday night which this young Mocs team.

This is a chance for this Mocs team to start building their own legacy. This is a chance for this Mocs team to start turning into legends themselves. This is a chance for this Mocs team to start making their own mark in the Chattanooga record books.

Beating a very good College of Charleston team in their last trip to Chattanooga as members of the SoCon gives the Mocs just that kind of opportunity. The Mocs sit just one and a half games out of the fourth bye right now, which is a critical position to get to. The Cougars, on the other hand, sit just two games behind Davidson for first in the SoCon, and get the Wildcats in TD Arena next Thursday. In other words, both teams need this one to keep their goals as close as they can.

The Cougars have won five straight games since back to back losses at Georgia Southern and at Davidson three weeks ago.

Andrew Lawrence is averaging just 12.0 points per game in his last five games, which were all wins for the Cougars. He leads the Cougars on the year with 13.7 points per game and 4.2 assists per contest. He is shooting 38.1% from three point range. This is the most important thing for the Cougars- getting Lawrence hot from long range. He also averaged 2.7 turnovers per game.

Anthony Stitt is averaging 10.8 points per game, along with 3.0 assists per game and 2.8 turnovers per contest. He is shooting 39.4% from three point range. Stitt's shooting is equally important to the Cougars.

Adejhi Baru is the Cougars other double digit scorer. He is shooting 51.7% from the floor to average 10.2 points per game, along with 8.5 rebounds. He also comes up with 1.3 blocks per game. He is a defensive force, one of the leagues best rebounders, and his offense has come around nicely. Baru's inside presence is probably the most consistent thing the Cougars offense has had this year.

Trent Wiedeman is still not back to his old self. He is averaging just seven points and five rebounds per game in conference games this year. He has just not been healthy. Wiedeman is one of the best inside players in the league when he's healthy, but he just hasn't been able to pull that off this year. His best game was against UNCG last Saturday, when he scored fourteen points and had twelve rebounds. He followed that up with four points and two rebounds in just fourteen minutes.

Willis Hall is second on the team in rebounding with 6.1 per contest. He is shooting 52.3% from the floor and averaging 7.5 points per game. Hall, Baru, and Wiedeman (along with Anthony Thomas) provides so much presence inside that they can do a lot of really good things for the Cougars.

So what chance do the Mocs have against a team like this? The Mocs played a full court press defense for much of the night against The Citadel and forced them into turnovers. That has been the Cougars offensive downfall this year. When their opponent can force them into a bunch of turnovers, the Cougars offense becomes very mediocre. That is probably the Mocs best chance to win the game.

The Cougars have played some of the best defense in the SoCon. The Mocs offense has been surprisingly effective at times this year. Gee McGhee is getting better each and every night on the floor. You can almost literally see him growing up and taking a bigger role on this team. Z Mason has always been very good, and is continuing to impress. Drazen Zlovaric had his best night of the year against The Citadel, and looked much better against Georgia Southern.

Zlovaric and Mason will have to have big nights and stay out of foul trouble. McGhee and Rico White will need to have big nights as well, while limiting turnovers. It wouldn't hurt it Martynas Bareika, Farad Cobb, or some other Moc had had their best night of the year. Bareika has been playing well lately, so it is possible.

With Lance Stokes playing defensive stopper, it will be interesting to see which player Coach Shulman puts him on. We'll wait and see.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Cougars will outrebound the Mocs. Ouch.
--The Mocs, if they play the full court press throughout, will reek havoc on the Cougars offense, causing quite a few turnovers.
--McGhee and Mason will continue to impress.
--Wiedeman has his best game of the year to date.
--College of Charleston 80, Mocs 68. The Mocs will be much better than they were a few weeks ago in Charleston, but it won't be enough. They will need the breaks to go their way, but they just won't be able to stop the Cougars once they break the press. The Mocs offense will make some plays, and there will still be hope for the future, but Rome wasn't built in a day. The Mocs legends will go home disappointed in the outcome.

GO MOCS!

Daily Dribbles- 2/8/13

--It was a wild Thursday night in the SoCon bye race. Samford's narrow loss, Western Carolina's loss, coupled with Appalachian State's overtime win at Georgia Southern puts them in the fourth spot in the SoCon standings. They lead by just half a game over Samford, one game over UNCG and Western Carolina, one and a half games over Chattanooga, along with two games over Georgia Southern.

--The North is up by two games on the South in the Battle of the North vs. South. With six more games on Saturday, this race is going to be very interesting this weekend.

--Appalachian State moved into fourth on Thursday, but goes to Davidson on Saturday. In other words, Samford (who hosts The Citadel), UNCG (who visits Wofford), and possibly even Western Carolina (who travels to Georgia Southern) have a very real shot to get into the fourth position by Saturday evening.

--I know the SoCon isn't wildly popular, but I have to say, I thoroughly enjoy it....just sayin'.

Mocs 89, The Citadel 76

The Mocs played their most complete game of the year on Thursday night in defeating The Citadel, 89-76.

It was also the introduction of the defense I've been waiting to see all year. The Mocs played full court pressure defense from start to finish....and the Mocs forced the Bulldogs into sixteen turnovers. Yes, The Citadel barely missed any shots, shooting 53.1% from the floor. But the defense was effective. In the second half, they held the Bulldogs to 50% shooting, which does not sound great, but it was an improvement on the first half. When combined with sixteen turnovers compared to the Mocs eight, and the Mocs coming up with thirteen offensive rebounds compared to the Bulldogs coming up with eight, you come up with the Mocs taking sixteen more shots from the floor. That's how you win basketball games when your opponent shoots well over 50%.

So was the defense good? Sure. I'll go with it in this game. I'll also go so far as to say that if the Mocs play that defense against College of Charleston on Saturday evening, it might be effective too. The Cougars have been prone to turnovers in their losses. If the Mocs can force a bunch of turnovers against the Cougars, maybe they can be competitive.

The Mocs offense was lead by Drazen Zlovaric, who scored 14 of the teams first 28 points. He wound up with 18. There were signs against Georgia Southern that he was snapping out of his funk. I was afraid to think that it might carry over since he has been in such a slump this year. Then, Zlovaric played this game. Maybe he'll continue on a winning streak. The Mocs certainly need him for them to continue winning.

Martynas Bareika was also very good in this one. He made a couple of moves to the basket that were very impressive. He finished with twelve points.

Rico White had 19. He looks more and more comfortable as the point guard. I honestly think that Dontay Hampton coming back and Farad Cobb's larger role at point guard really helped White, even though Hampton is out now. It got White's offensive confidence back. Now that he has rediscovered some of his confidence, he could continue to be a force.

Z Mason picked up two fouls less than three minutes into the first half. He was benched the rest of the first half. He wound up scoring fourteen second half points, but did not get a rebound all night. Ouch. Still, Z scored 14 points in just nineteen minutes. He had one dunk that was worthy of the SportCenter Top Ten. It was impressive.

Then, there is Gee McGhee. He scored 22 points, had seven rebounds and four assists. This freshman has been unbelievable. I did not anticipate him being this good this year. He has shown no fear in getting to the basket all year long. He has consistently been able to get into the lane. That ability was first shown against Kansas and has kept up all year long. Now, it's just a given that he can get to the basket. He was down after his missed three toward the end of the game against Georgia Southern. But he did not let it keep him down, playing what was probably his best game as a Moc.

Watching this team, it is easy to start getting excited about next year. Mason, McGhee, and White will be the cornerstones of next year's team. Lance Stokes, who had five assists and three steals, and is probably the Mocs best perimeter defender, continues to impress. Farad Cobb has shown flashes. Martynas Bareika has improved. Casey Jones has been injured, but he showed flashes when he was starting earlier in the year. There is plenty to be excited about for next year.

This year's team is more of a mixed bag. The Mocs moved into the eighth spot in the SoCon standings, but are just 1.5 games behind Appalachian State for the fourth and final bye. With five home games in their next six games, the Mocs could make a run right now. They need to if they are going to get into the bye discussion seriously. I'm not sure if the Mocs can really get there or not. This team is closer than a lot of people seem to think to being in decent position.

I want to believe. But I will reserve judgement until at least the end of Monday night's game against Samford. These next two games are huge to the overall feeling about these Mocs.

GO MOCS!

Four Factors- The Citadel

eFG%
Bulldogs- 59.2%
Mocs- 56.9%
Advantage- Bulldogs

TO%
Bulldogs- 23.4%
Mocs- 11.5%
Advantage- Mocs

OR%
Bulldogs- 28.6%
Mocs- 39.4%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Bulldogs- 49.0%
Mocs- 30.8%
Advantage- Bulldogs

3PA%
Bulldogs- 38.8%
Mocs- 21.5%

SoCon Pick 'Em Standings- 2/7/13

1) SoConJohn 48
2) Hugh Hughes 46
3t) JohnMoc 45
3t) half-n-half 45
3t) Muskie24 45
3t) DC_Int'l 45
7t) David 44
7t) WildCock 44
7t) T-Dog 44
10) Clarkdr21 43
11t) Bill Casey 42
11t) GoalCat 42
13) Jerry Love 40
14t) CougarSurf11 39
14t) WinthropSpartan 39
14t) Jay 39
17) DashSpartan 37
18) AP 32
19) Cujo 27
20) earle & patty 21
21t) GACoug 20
21t) BVGerd 20
23) Waitress 18
24) Mike 17
25t) bdf 15
25t) ChasCougs 15
27) Coug04 14
28) Chris 12
29) Joe 7
30) ElonFireFighter 6

Battle of North vs. South

Thursday Scores

Appalachian State (N) 91
Georgia Southern (S) 86 OT

UNCG (N) 88
Furman (S) 65

The Citadel (S) 76
Chattanooga (N) 89

Western Carolina (N) 59
Davidson (S) 73

Elon (N) 50
Wofford (S) 60

College of Charleston (S) 69
Samford (N) 65

at North
North- 7
South- 7

at South
North- 10
South- 8

Overall
North- 17
South- 15

ANALYSIS

The games on Thursday were played four at the South and two at the North. The two divisions split the games 3-3. That was important for the North to win the Battle of North vs. South. On Saturday, there will be four games played at the South again. If the South wins 4-2 on Saturday, then it will be tied at 19. After Saturday, the North will have eight home games remaining. The South will have just two home games remaining. If the North can go 3-3 on Saturday, then the North would be up two games with eight at home and only two on the road remaining. Things would look good for the North then. Even a tie score would be an advantage to the North.

Daily Dribbles- 2/7/13

--Samford and College of Charleston are hooking up in Alabama on Thursday night. The Bulldogs beat the Cougars about a month ago in Charleston. King Kresse has an interesting post on the revenge factor of this game.

--Appalachian State's trip to Georgia Southern is huge for the bye race. Really looking forward to that match-up on Thursday night.

--Elon is trying to get the top overall seed in the SoCon Tournament. They are travelling to Wofford, one of the league's biggest disappointments, who is sitting in last place in the SoCon. Why does it intrigue me so much then? I have no idea. But I find it compelling.

--UNCG's trip to Furman is equally oddly interesting. The Paladins beat the Spartans, and both teams are trying to get into the bye race, though both teams are in desperate need for a win.

--Western Carolina and Davidson are battling on Thursday night. The Wildcats are the big home favorites. Tough spot for Western.

--Chattanooga plays The Citadel at home. Can the Mocs get the home win? Or will The Citadel stay hot and win a third straight game.

The Citadel Preview: Home Court Advantage?

The Mocs have been on the road for six of the first nine SoCon games, including six of the last eight. If you looked at the Mocs schedule in the preseason, this was the time that you expected that the Mocs to maybe start showing signs of improvement. They get six of their next seven games at home, and their one road game is at Wofford, who currently has the worst record in the SoCon.

Also, many people thought the Mocs would only have one or two SoCon wins at this point. Instead, they have three and are only two wins out of the bye race. If the Mocs truly can start winning a few games here, they can still get the fourth bye. There is no time like the present for the the Mocs to begin winning and get into the race.

To do that, they will have to beat The Citadel for the second time this year. The first time the Bulldogs were up by ten in the second half before watching the Mocs come back and win. This was the beginning of many things to come for the Mocs, who seem to fall behind every game only to come from behind. They haven't always won. But they have been coming back from large deficits consistently.

Mike Groselle is the Bulldogs best player. At 6-8, he leads the team in scoring and rebounding, with 15.0 points and 7.8 rebounds. He is also third on the team in assists with 1.5 per contest. He is shooting a remarkable 58.1% from the floor. He is averaging 19.0 points per game in his last five contests. During the stretch when the Mocs faced him last time, he was in the midst of scoring in single digits three of the last five games. Now he is playing significantly better.

Matt Van Syoc is one of the better three point shooters in the SoCon. He has made 43 threes on the year. He is making 38.4% from long range on the year. He is averaging 11.7 points per game, which is second on the team. He leads the team in blocks, averaging just under one per contest.

PJ Horgan is 6-8 and very good. He was playing just his second game when the Mocs played The Citadel the first time. He had had a great game in his first game. But the last two games have been huge for Horgan with the Bulldogs winning both of them. Horgan has scored 19.5 points per game in the last two along with 7.5 rebounds per contest. He is shooting 68.2% from the floor. He also shot 75% from the free throw line.

Marshall Harris III leads the team in assists with 5.0 per contest. However, he is shooting only 29.6% from the field and 28.6% from three point range. He shoots 87.9% from the free throw line. So Harris has not been great scoring, but he is a solid distributor of the basketball.

The Citadel is rated the worst defensive team in the league play according to Pomeroy's efficiency statistics. They are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league and only the eighth best offensive rebounding team in the league, according to Pomeroy. They also commit the eleventh highest percentage of turnovers in the league, while forcing the second fewest. In other words, this is not a great defensive team, and they commit too many turnovers on offense. That is the main reason that the Bulldogs have been struggling this year. If they can cut down on the turnovers, and do a better job on the defensive end, they have a chance to win several more games.

The Bulldogs have won back-to-back games, while the Mocs have lost four straight. Can The Citadel continue their current momentum? Or will the Mocs turn it around?

The Mocs will need to not commit turnovers, something they have been doing much better at in recent games. If that continues, then Gee McGhee, Z Mason, and Rico White all will have plenty of opportunities to score against the Bulldogs porous defense. Can they force the Bulldogs into some turnovers?

Furman lead The Citadel by 16 before falling to the Bulldogs in the last game for them. The Mocs are also a team that comes from behind a lot. In other words, don't turn off this game no matter what the point differential. A comeback is always possible with these two teams.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Groselle will score 20 points and collect at least six rebounds.
--McGhee and Mason will each have big nights for the Mocs.
--The Mocs won't commit a lot of turnovers, and will force a few more than they commit.
--Mocs 73, The Citadel 68. This is a really tough spot for the Mocs. They have to get hot at the right time here. The Mocs have to come out prepared to play or they will get stunned and basically end the chances of getting a bye. The Mocs are the better team, though, and they will come up with the very important win.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Monster Game of the Week: Appalachian State at Georgia Southern

The current leader in the fourth bye spot is Samford. They are 5-4 in SoCon play. Sitting just one half game back is Appalachian State- they are 5-5. Sitting just one game behind the Mountaineers at 4-6 is Georgia Southern.

There are seven teams within two games of the final bye spot, and both of these are among them. Despite the fact that seven teams are within two games, just  three games this week are between teams who are both in that position. One is UNCG at Furman on Thursday night. One is Western Carolina's trip to Georgia Southern on Saturday night. The other is this game.

In other words, this game is very important in the SoCon bye race. This game is criticala to the chances of either team getting the bye. In fact, if Samford loses to College of Charleston and Western Carolina loses to Davidson, if Appalachian State wins they would be in fourth in the bye race. If that happens and Georgia Southern wins, they would be within one half game of the final bye spot.

To say the least, this one is important.

Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern in overtime in Boone earlier this year, 64-62 thanks to a three by Chris Burgess with twelve seconds left. That was after blowing a seventeen point second half lead. But the fact is that the Mountaineers rely heavily on Nathan Healy. Healy leads the team in points with 14.6 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per contest. He is shooting 50% from the floor on the season, and on top of that is shooting 41.8% from three point distance, or 38 or 91 on the year. That's a remarkable season for Healy. He's ninth in the league in scoring and fourth in rebounding.

Jay Canty has also been very good. He is averaging 14.5 points per contest and 6.1 rebounds per game to go along with 2.9 assists per game. That is good for second on the team in every category. Canty has been a very good player for the Mountaineers so far this year.

Mike Neal's return really sparked Appalachian State. He is averaging 3.2 assists per game on the season. That would be good for eighth in the league if he qualified. Tab Hamilton has knocked down forty threes so far this year. He also is averaging 10.5 points per game on the year. Tevin Baskin (who only plays 20.5 minutes per game) is averaging 10.3 points per contest. The Mountaineers are one of the better teams in the league at blocking shots and defending the three point shot. Healy averages 1.5 blocks per game and Baskin averages 0.9 blocks.



Georgia Southern relies heavily on Eric Ferguson, a potential future NBA player. Ferguson is averaging 14.2 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game. Ferguson is shooting 48.4% from the floor. He comes up with 1.8 steals per game and one block per contest. He is one of the better all around players in the SoCon.

CJ Reed was hot against Chattanooga on Saturday night. He made fifty percent of his shots in that one and scored a team high 19 points. He's made 45 threes on the year, shooting 38.8% from long range. He is averaging 12.4 points per game, three rebounds per game, and leads the team with 3.8 assists per contest.

Tre Bussey is the third Eagle averaging in double figures. He is averaging 10.1 points per contest. Cleon Roberts can also get hot from three point range, shooting 40.5% from there. Cameron Baskerville and Kameron Dunnican are both big guys that can alter shots, but don't bring a ton offensively. Actually, that kind of describes the Eagles. Georgia Southern is not a great offensive team and has a tendency to go through long stretches where they do not score. They are a very good defensive team, but just struggle to score at times throughout the year.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Ferguson and Healy both will play very well. They are both hoping to make first team All SoCon, so their performance here could be important.
--The Mountaineers and Eagles both are solid defensive teams, and both are capable of going long stretches without scoring. Expect several long stretches without a lot of points.
--Look for a lot of blocks in this one as these two teams are two of the better shot blocking teams in the SoCon.
--Georgia Southern 57, Appalachian State 54. There won't be a ton of points, but there will be a ton of excitement. This game will be intense. The Eagles are a very good home team, having beaten College of Charleston and Davidson in Statesboro. That home court advantage will provide the final difference in the showdown. The Eagles are going to move into a tie with the Mountaineers in the standings and inch them closer to the fourth bye spot.

Daily Dribbles- 2/6/13

--Elon has won seven straight games, thanks in large part to SoCon Player of the Week Lucas Troutman, who averaged 22.5 points and eight rebounds per game. Troutman is certainly one of the SoCon's better players. Very deserving of the honor.

--Appalachian State's Nathan Healy reached the heights of 24 points, eight rebounds, and seven steals on Saturday against Western Carolina. He became the first player to reach those marks all in the same game this year in the entire country. Impressive.

--Furman was dominating The Citadel on Saturday night...until the Bulldogs scored 60 second half points. That was the third best half against a SoCon team in the Bulldogs history.

--A seating chart for the SoCon Tournament posted by T-Dog (for entertainment purposes only).

--Purple & Gold has a preview of the important Western Carolina-Davidson game on Thursday night.

--The reasons that Theo Johnson is not likely to get more playing time is listed by King Kresse.

--Search for it and you'll see a preview of the Appalachian State-Georgia Southern and Appy-Davidson game, along with a recap of last week's action for the Mountaineers.

--I thought you may not have gotten enough of conference realignment in the SoCon from Scanning the SoCon Monday, so here's the take of The Sports Arsenal.

--Here's a couple of articles you may have missed on this blog the last two days. One talks about the updated four year standings. The other discusses the battle for the fourth bye spot.

SoCon Four Year Standings

We promised an updated look at the four year standings in the SoCon. We're looking back at 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12, and this year. So here are the conference standings through the last three plus years.

North

Western Carolina 36-28 (1 division title and 1 conference tournament championship game)
Appalachian State 35-29 (1 division title and 1 conference tournament championship game)
Elon 29-35
Chattanooga 26-37
UNCG 26-38 (1 division title)
Samford 22-41

South

Davidson 47-18 (1 division title, 1 conference tournament championship game, 1 conference tournament title)
College of Charleston 46-19 (1 division title and 1 conference tournament championship game)
Wofford 43-21 (1 division title, 2 conference tournament championship games, 2 conference tournament titles)
Furman 30-33
Georgia Southern 23-41
The Citadel 21-44

ANALYSIS

So who has been the best team in the North and South over this time. Right now, the edge goes to Western Carolina for the best team during this stretch in the North. Their peripheral stats match up to Appalachian State perfectly, but the Catamounts are one game ahead of the Mountaineers. If the peripheral stats continue to match up, the better team will be determined by the better record. Elon, despite their success this year, is so far behind in the record, that they are going to have to win the conference tournament to have any claim to the title of the best team in the North over the last four years.

For the South, Davidson has probably passed Wofford in the standings since the last time. The problem is that the Terriers still have two conference tournament titles. But right now, they are in last place in the conference. If the Terriers start winning again, and move back up the standings, the Terriers will have a real claim if Davidson or College of Charleston does not win the tournament title.

The worst team in the North? That's almost definitely Samford, with the worst overall record by three and a half games. The worst team in the South? Probably The Citadel, with the worst overall record by two and a half games.

Very interesting. As we go down the stretch, the battles for the best team over the last four years continues to be intriguing. At least to me....

Daily Dribbles- 2/5/13

--BracketBuster pairings were announced on Monday evening. The highlight is Davidson playing Montana at home. The Grizzlies are 16-4 and 12-0 in the Big Sky. The game will be televised on ESPNU. This is a great opportunity for the Wildcats and the SoCon to come up with a nice win.

--College of Charleston is hosting Gardner-Webb in the BracketBuster showdown. Gardner-Webb is 5-4 in the Big South and 13-10 overall. Can the Cougars come up with the win?

--Western Carolina is hosting Coastal Carolina (a team that several people want to join the SoCon). The Chanticleers are 10-10 overall and 5-4 in the Big South.

--The Citadel travels to Presbyterian. Presbyterian is 5-18 overall and 2-7 in the Big South.

--In other words, the SoCon has three chances to play against the Big South in BracketBusters. Down just one game in the season series, the SoCon really needs to come up with two wins at least to even the season series.

Battle for the Fourth Bye

There are four byes in the SoCon Tournament. The four teams receiving byes are the teams automatically considered the favorites in the tournament. No team has ever won four games in four days at the SoCon Tournament, so to not get a bye and go to the NCAA Tournament is almost impossible. That's why the four byes matter so much.

Right now, it's obvious about three of the teams. Davidson is 10-1, Elon is 8-2, and College of Charleston is 8-3. Those teams are up by at least two and a half games on the fifth spot, meaning all of them are in excellent shape when it comes to the bye. No, they do not have the bye locked up yet. But things do look good.

The next seven teams are within two games of each other, giving them all a chance at getting the fourth bye if they can get hot- like right now.

Here's the current standings:

Samford 5-4
Appalachian State 5-5
Western Carolina 5-5
Georgia Southern 4-6
UNCG 4-6
Chattanooga 3-6
Furman 3-6

That's right- several teams that you have probably written off from even remotely being in the bye race are still clinging to hope in the bye race. UNCG, Chattanooga, and Furman, who have all been struggling at points this year, can look at the race right now and find some hope.

But it appears no team really wants to win that fourth bye this year. Western Carolina after starting 4-0 has gone 1-5 in their last five games. Appalachian State is 2-4 in their last six games. Samford was 5-1, and has lost three games in a row now. Chattanooga has lost four straight games. That leaves only Georgia Southern, UNCG, and Furman as remotely playing well at the moment.

What team wants to win the fourth bye? I don't know. Right now, it seems like no one wants to get it. This race has really heated up.

Remember, earlier this year? I always thought that Davidson, Elon, and College of Charleston were the favorites for the first three bye spots. I first thought that Wofford would get the fourth one. I then thought that Western Carolina would get the spot. Once the Catamounts started struggling, I thought Samford might get it. Wofford is currently the last place team in the conference.

Whoops.

Let's look at the future schedules for the next two weeks:

Samford

February 7 College of Charleston
February 9 The Citadel
February 11 at Chattanooga
February 14 Wofford
February 16 at Furman

Appalachian State

February 7 at Georgia Southern
February 9 at Davidson
February 11 Furman
February 14 at Elon
February 17 at UNCG

Western Carolina

February 7 at Davidson
February 9 at Georgia Southern
February 11 Wofford
February 14 at UNCG
February 16 at Elon

Georgia Southern

February 7 Appalachian State
February 9 Western Carolina
February 14 at The Citadel
February 16 at College of Charleston

UNCG

February 7 at Furman
February 9 at Wofford
February 14 Western Carolina
February 17 Appalachian State

Chattanooga

February 7 The Citadel
February 9 College of Charleston
February 11 Samford
February 14 Furman
February 16 at Wofford

Furman

February 7 UNCG
February 9 Elon
February 11 at Appalachian State
February 14 at Chattanooga
February 16 Samford

GAMES THIS WEEK BETWEEN TWO TEAMS FIGHTING FOR BYE

Thursday
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern
UNCG at Furman

Saturday
Western Carolina at Georgia Southern

In other words, Davidson, Elon, The Citadel, Wofford, and College of Charleston are playing a critical role in the bye race this week. I'll keep on looking at this. Next Sunday, look for more analysis on this evolving race. If the race tightens up to include any of the five teams not currently included in this section, we'll start including them. If any team that is currently included falls out of the race, we'll take them off the list.

Should be a very compelling week.....

Scanning the SoCon- Week Fourteen

Each week, twelve bloggers/message boarders (one representing each team) all will vote on a Game of the Week and Power Rankings. At least four will answer a series of questions on their team and around the SoCon. Don't forget to check back Monday through Friday to read Daily Dribbles from around the SoCon here on MocsMania. Also, don’t forget to play SoCon Pick ‘Em!

CONTRIBUTORS

 Appalachian State- Yosef's Cabin T-Dog
Chattanooga- Mocs Mania- JohnMoc
College of Charleston- King Kresse CougarSurf11
Davidson- Davidson Cats Message Board David Sink
Elon- Elon Pendulum Student Newspaper- Tyler Ash
Furman- The UFFP Message Board- SoConJohn
Georgia Southern- GSU Fans Message Board half-n-half
Samford- Samford Bulldogs Message Board AP
The Citadel- The Sports Arsenal- Sandlapper Spike
UNC-Greensboro- UNCG Basketball Fan DashSpartan
Western Carolina- Purple & Gold Jerry Love
Wofford- Terrier Fans Message Board

POWER RANKINGS

1) Davidson 132 (11)

2) College of Charleston 118
3) Elon 113
4) Samford 89
5) Appalachian State 84
6) Western Carolina 80
7) Georgia Southern 70
8) UNCG 51
9) Chattanooga 47
10) The Citadel 28
11) Furman 26
12) Wofford 12

GAME OF THE WEEK

College of Charleston at Samford- 3 votes

Others Receiving Votes:  Western Carolina at Georgia Southern (2), Appalachian State at Davidson (2), Western Carolina at Davidson (1), Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (1), Elon at Wofford (1), College of Charleston at Chattanooga (1)

QUESTIONS

If you had your pick, what would your strategy be for conference expansion?

Chattanooga- Personally, I would go to fourteen teams right now. I would pick up ETSU without hesitation and also Mercer. Those two would immediately benefit the basketball side of things. Yes, they would not be perfect fits in football, but very few top football programs are going to move just to get into the SoCon. If Richmond is interested, as there are rumors that they may, I would pick them up instantly. They help both the basketball and football conference. If Richmond is not interested, I’d take Kennesaw State, a growing sports program that may get some share in the Atlanta market.

Furman- I am for adding only teams that would benefit the Southern Conference on the gridirion side in the immediate...Each Division must have an even amount of teams, and with the College of Charleston leaving, I think the SoCon should add two teams to each division, which also benefit the SoCon as football-playing institutions. With the league having the potential of losing Georgia Southern and Appalachian State when the two leave, adding two replacements with football programs will allow the league to compensate later should they lose ASU and GSU. Then one basketball-only program should be added when ASU and GSU leave, making it even in both divisions. Twelve teams for basketball seems like the right number to me.

Potential Football and Basketball additions:

Mercer
Coastal Carolina
Stetson
Kennesaw State
Eastern Kentucky

Basketball Only

USC Upstate
Belmont

Georgia Southern- As a Georgia Southern fan I have to answer this two different ways. One assuming that Georgia Southern is leaving the SoCon and the other assuming that Georgia Southern is staying. Assuming that Georgia Southern (and App St) does leave the SoCon then I like the three teams that the GSU AD floated around a couple weeks ago. Mercer, UNC-Wilmington, and Richmond would all make sense in a GSU and App less SoCon. They fit in with the schools like Davidson, Wofford, Furman, ect. I think at worst the SoCon would need to add 3 teams to replace the 3 that left. If GSU does stay in the SoCon then I would like to see Charleston replaced, but that would be it. GSU, App, and UTC are already outliers in the SoCon and it would only get worse if more small private schools are added.

Samford- In May, I discussed on the Samford board a strategy to seal off the CAA and pluck a few of its northern teams to surpass that league. Clearly, that ship has sailed. At this point, it will be difficult to find partners that make the SoCon a materially stronger league, but the SoCon needs to add three teams and there is one outstanding option: Belmont. It is an ideal geographic and cultural fit for the league, and would give the SoCon a presence in the momentarily-hottest city in America. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/us/nashville-takes-its-turn-in-the-spotlight.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Belmont has a competitive academic profile, great basketball program, high-APR athletic department, and would add the #29 television market in the country. While it will be difficult to get Belmont to leave the OVC after one year, it is in the best long-term interest of both Belmont and the SoCon to join up. Beyond that one immediate addition, the SoCon should look to add at least two football-playing members of the conference.

The Citadel- I have to look at this from a league perspective, but also from the point of view of The Citadel. First, I don't think it's necessary to add any teams until App/GSU are gone. The schools that have been identified as potential replacements for App/GSU/CofC aren't going anywhere. When App/GSU announce they have their Sun Belt invite, then I think the SoCon should add schools based on the interests of those remaining members. At least two of the new members need to have a scholarship football program (and accompanying SoCon-caliber stadium) by 2015.  My preference, as a supporter of The Citadel, is that Mercer and VMI be added as members. I would accept ETSU if there were no other alternatives available that would appeal to the remaining members, but only if ETSU guaranteed it would have not only a football program, but a new stadium by no later than 2015 (no more games in that horrific dome). I will add that if William & Mary were available, I would prefer that school as the third school (actually, I would prefer W&M to Mercer too). I do not think the league needs to expand beyond 12 members. I would not be in favor of Richmond as a football-only member unless the league ran out of acceptable options. Richmond as a full member would be great, but that's not happening. Coastal Carolina would be a non-starter. So would any of the other large state schools that have been bandied about (Kennesaw State, etc.).

Western Carolina- First I’d move immediately, with a goal of 14 members (add 3 now).  First I’d invite to ETSU to replace Charleston.  ETSU would get us back to 12 for basketball, and if they return football in 2015, that would give us another full football member in 2017.  I’d also invite Kennesaw State, this would keep us in the Atlanta market and Georgia in a large school with a large alumni base.  KSU will be adding football, and would probably be a full playing member by 2018.  My last invite would be Coastal Carolina, they are ready in football, basketball, and certainly baseball for Southern Conference competition.

The SoCon supposedly has had network TV offers. Many have expressed their interest in a TV deal for the SoCon. Would you approve of any network TV deal? Or do you have some network TV deal that you would not be interested?

Chattanooga- I think there are some TV deals that would not be a good deal. I want a TV deal for the SoCon as much as anyone, but I think they should only do it if they can expand their total coverage. I think coming up with a way to show more games on ESPN3 with one game on television each week. That would be ideal. I have no idea if that is even possible.

 Furman- ESPN3 is a good deal...The quality of the broadcast is better, and having it on TV only diminishes the product in my mind...The reason being is though it is nice to have on TV, the overall quality of a CSS or a Fox Sports South broadcast makes the SoCon look like amateurish.

Georgia Southern- If the SoCon has a chance to get a TV deal then I think it's a no brainer. One of the reasons GSU fans are excited about the potential move up is increased ability to watch GSU sporting events. Right now there aren't many SoCon games on TV and it's been decreasing the past few years.

Samford- I think the SoCon needs a traditional broadcast presence for now. Other members of the Samford board believe that—because the SoCon isn’t on traditional cable—it is projecting a small-time image. I believe it’s part of a successful media plan, but not the sum total of that plan. A CSS-level deal alone is no better than ESPN3. Subscribers with Dish, DirecTV, or U-verse don't get CSS and it only reaches approximately 6M homes in market penetration into 13 states (from Texas to Northern Virginia). ESPN3 provides at least 21M viewers on college and military campuses, 40M who are Xbox Live subscribers, and the 73 million homes that get ESPN3 access through their ISPs. There is a sharp trend among those who are 30 and under away from conventional cable and TV generally. http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/57239/gen-ys-latest-trend-cord-cutting; http://www.fiercecable.com/story/cord-cutting-trend-nielsen-reports-increase-broadcast-only-homes-subscribe-/2012-02-10. The SoCon should place itself of the leading edge of web-broadcast sports. It should use the dues raised in the last year ($25K per member school) to subsidize HD-quality production of SoCon athletics at every member school. Because the league needs the exposure almost as badly as TV needs cheap programming, the SoCon should enter into a league-wide deal only for first-tier TV rights (like the Big10, among others). It’s my impression that CAA member schools made $0 from their NBC deal, but I haven’t found that out from a credible source; first-tier rights are mainly valuable as exposure points. Outside of first-tier games, every SoCon football and basketball game should be broadcast live on the internet in HD for free (or a nominal fee) by the SoCon itself—similar to what the Horizon League does. Further, each member institution should enter into a broadcast deal with a local TV partner to show the HD feed from every home and away game so long as that game is not in the tier 1 package. Having a comprehensive media package is far more important than just having one component (TV) over another (web). The world is changing—and the SoCon needs to get closer to the front of the curve on this issue.

The Citadel- I prefer any deal that gets my school on TV, other than one that required last-minute changes to football game times. The league members can't afford to do that. The SoCon badly needs a TV deal for hoops as well (maybe more so than football, actually).

Western Carolina- Any network TV offer should be approved, as long as the SoCon is able to offer games not carried by that network to other outlets, such as ESPN3.

What should the SoCon’s scheduling strategy be from this point forward?

Chattanooga- I think the SoCon should stay at 18 games if they had the opportunity. Since they are moving to 16 games, though, I think that the SoCon should make sure make sure that if a team plays one team one year only once, they should play that team twice the next year.

Furman- The SoCon shouldn't let the elite programs determine what the league does schedule-wise. Would it be different if Furman or Appalachian State wanted something?...I like an 18-game schedule.

Georgia Southern- I like the 16 game conference schedule. The only way for the SoCon to improve it's conference rating is to win OOC games. Having a couple extra every year is needed I think. As for next year I'd have each team play six teams twice and four teams once. It's not the way you'd like to have a conference schedule, but with only 11 teams it's probably the way it needs to be done.

The Citadel- A 16-game schedule is good in that it gives teams more room to operate in terms of making their OOC schedules. I also hope it means an end to December conference games.The "six and four" plan is fine (it is close to what we do now with divisions). I suspect fans of some teams will be worried that other schools will load up on patsies and negatively impact measures like RPI. That's where Dave Odom should be involved (as part of his role with the SoCon), to make sure each school has a schedule that works for its needs but doesn't hurt the conference as a whole. I also hope the league helps schools with invitations to more exempt tournaments.

Western Carolina- I’m not impressed with a 16 game schedule and only 11 teams.  While eliminating the divisions maybe helpful, whatever method you utilize to schedule, there will be no fair or equitable way to schedule (what about the teams that play Davidson twice, but the Citadel only once, and vice versa, the teams that end up with two against the Citadel and only once against Davidson).  The only fair method would have been to postpone the 16 game schedule one year, and play a full schedule, home & home for this one season.

Twelve games between the North and South this week. Which division do you think will win more individual games this week?

Chattanooga- The South is making up ground fast, but a large chunk of that is due to Davidson’s dominance. With Davidson playing two games this week, I expect the South to narrow the gap and possibly even take the lead this week. I’d look for 7-5 in favor of the South.

Davidson- I think the South goes 7-5 this week. That'd leave us in a 19-19 tie with 10 games to play.

Furman- At this point, the Southern Conference North Division is much stronger than the South outside Davidson and College of Charleston. Having said that, the South will likely have more success this time around with most of the games on the South's home floor...Furman will likely go 1-1 against the North this week, while Davidson should make it 2-0 week against App and struggling WCU...But, I do think the North is a stronger division this season.

Georgia Southern- I think it's going to be close, but at the end of the week the North will walk away with a 7-5 record because of Samford winning the last game of the week on Saturday night.

Western Carolina- Don’t look for WCU to help in the North, same for the Citadel, Furman, Chattanooga, or UNCG – so, my money would be on the South – with Davidson & Charleston leading the way.

Daily Dribbles- 2/4/13

--The race for the final bye in the SoCon is extremely heated. I'll have an article up later on today or tomorrow about the tightness of the race. Seven teams are within two games of the final bye. This is incredibly heated.

--All twelve games are between the North and the South this week in the SoCon games. Who wins the Battle of North vs. South? This week will go a long way to determining that.

--The final Bracketbuster match-ups will be announced this evening. That will make for some good fodder as we move forward.

--Don't forget to get involved in the SoCon Pick 'Em!

Scanning the SoCon- A Day Late....

Scanning the SoCon is delayed by one day due to the Super Bowl. I will get it out tomorrow evening!

Thanks for understanding.

Should be a good week.....

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Announcement

With the change in how the Monster Game of the Week is selected, here is what David Sink the Davidson representative on Scanning the SoCon, had to say about his selection:

"John gets his wish! No need to write about Davidson this week. This week's Game of the Week is Thursday's ASU at GSU game. This game is key for the chances of ASU and GSU to make a run at the 4 seed. At 5-5 in conference games, ASU is 1/2 game behind Samford, the current leader for the 4 seed. The Mountaineers have lost 4 of their last 6. One of the wins in that stretch was a 2-pt OT win over GSU. GSU started the conference season 0-3, but they've won 4 of their last 7 and stand at 4-6. That leaves them 1 1/2 games behind Samford, tied with UNCG and a game behind WCU and ASU. ASU and WCU both travel to Statesboro and Davidson this week, UNCG travels to Furman and Wofford, and Samford hosts Citadel and CofC. Though they both need help from other teams, the winner of this game substantially improves their odds at the 4 seed. Pomeroy says ASU scores 63 and GSU scores 65. This one should be close and a lot of fun."

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern on Thursday night at 7:00 PM should be tremendous. Excellent selection.

Game of the Week Change Announcement

Last year, when picking the SoCon Monster Game of the Week, I picked the game that I thought was the biggest game of each week.

This year, the SoCon Monster Game of the Week has been picked by the Scanning the SoCon vote. That has been fun, but has created a situation where a lot of Davidson games have been picked. I have decided to make a change to the way the game is chosen over the following month.

The team that wins the previous SoCon Monster Game of the Week will have their representative from Scanning the SoCon pick the following week's game. That game will get the special treatment (the preview, the two point game in the SoCon Pick 'em, etc).

Last week, the SoCon Monster Game of the Week was Samford at Davidson. Davidson won. That means the Scanning the SoCon Davidson rep will pick the game for this week. He will not be able to pick a Davidson game, since he represents the team.

So there we go....

SoCon Pick 'Em- Week Six

Get your picks in! Week Five standings are here. The Game of the Week worth two points is Appalachian State at Georgia Southern.

Thursday Games

UNCG at Furman 7:00
The Citadel at Chattanooga 7:00
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern 7:00 (2 point game)
Western Carolina at Davidson 7:00
Elon at Wofford 7:00
College of Charleston at Samford

Saturday Games

Elon at Furman 4:00
UNCG at Wofford 7:00
Western Carolina at Georgia Southern 7:30
Appalachian State at Davidson 7:30
College of Charleston at Chattanooga 7:30
The Citadel at Samford 8:00 (ESPN3)

Good luck!

Georgia Southern 59, Mocs 57

Ouch. This one would have helped the Mocs dramatically. Coming back from 21 down, the Mocs took the lead late in the game, only to see Eric Ferguson drain a long three to give the Eagles back the lead. Gee McGhee couldn't sink a three, and Z Mason stole an inbounds pass, but couldn't get a shot up before the game ended.

Ouch.

The Mocs comeback was tremendous though. This was a very interesting game for the Mocs.

Three Mocs players played over 30 minutes (Lance Stokes, Z Mason, and Gee McGhee). Drazen Zlovaric played 29 minutes. Rico White played 23 minutes, turning the ball over three times. Farad Cobb played seventeen minutes without turning the ball over. The Mocs as a team turned the ball over just nine times- which was an incredibly low total.

The Mocs drew a lot of fouls in this one. McGhee went to the line fifteen times and made twelve of them. This continues to show why I believe that McGhee will be a very good player as he continues to develop. He already is one of the better players on the team, and could turn into one of the SoCon's better players in the coming years.

Z Mason scored 14 points and had seven rebounds. Mason is so much fun to watch. Drazen Zlovaric had his best game of the season. He got the ball a couple of times further away from the basket and made some nice moves. He scored ten points and got ten rebounds, including four offensive rebounds.

The Eagles offensive production has been known for being inconsistent all season. They will go through long stretches where they don't score. That's why when they were ahead 50-31 with 15 minutes left, it was not time to overreact yet.

The Eagles went on to not score for a very long stretch. The Mocs got back into the game during that stretch, drawing a lot of fouls and getting to the line and making free throws. When McGhee made the two free throws with under a minute left, I really thought the Mocs were going to win.

The Mocs held Eric Ferguson to just 16 points, though CJ Reed scored 19 points. Reed was very good. He came up with five assists and just one turnover. Reed shot 50% from the floor and from three point range as well. He certainly went off in some ways, but not the way so many have against the Mocs in the past. Cleon Roberts (who I thought would have a big game) only scored six points, and made 2 of 11 from the floor. The Mocs did a good job on Roberts. Ferguson's late three not withstanding, the Mocs were decent against him as well.

The Mocs are just two games out of the final bye spot right now. They get six of their next seven games at home. There is a real chance to get back into the race for the bye if they can win big over the coming weeks at home. Really looking forward to the Mocs game on Thursday night at home against The Citadel. It's a huge moment for this year's team.

GO MOCS!

Four Factors Georgia Southern

eFG%
Eagles- 46.7%
Mocs- 38.0%
Advantage- Eagles

TO%
Eagles- 8.8%
Mocs- 16.0%
Advantage- Eagles

OR%
Eagles- 37.5%
Mocs- 39.4%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Eagles- 13.3%
Mocs- 65.2%
Advantage- Eagles

3PA%
Eagles-  41.7%
Mocs- 28.3%

SoCon Pick 'Em Standings Through Week 5

Game of the week will be announced on Sunday. Games are through February 2.

1) SoConJohn 44
2t) half-n-half 42
2t) Hugh Hughes 42
4t) JohnMocs 41
4t) David 41
4t) Muskie24 41
4t) DC_Int'l 41
8t) WildCock 40
8t) T Dog 40
10) GoalCat 39
11t) Jerry Love 37
11t) Clarkdr21 37
13) Bill Casey 36
14t) CougarSurf 11 35
14t) WinthropSpartan 35
16) DashSpartan 34
17) Jay 33
18) AP 32
19) Cujo 27
20) earle & patty 21
21t) GACoug 20
21t) BVGerd 20
23) Waitress 18
24) Mike 17
25t) ChasCougs 15
25t) bdf 15
27) Coug04 14
28) Chris 12
29) Joe 7
30) ElonFireFighter 6

WEEKLY WINNER:
Hugh Hughes 12

Battle of North vs. South- 2/2/13

Saturday Scores

UNCG (N) 59
College of Charleston (S) 81

Chattanooga (N) 57
Georgia Southern (S) 59

at North
North-6
South- 6

at South
North- 8
South- 6

Overall
North- 14
South- 12

ANALYSIS

It happened. The South won four games this week and trimmed the lead to 14-12 overall. With twelve games between the North and South this week, this is the week that will shape the story for the remainder of the year. I have no idea how many either team will win. This week is going to be very interesting. If the North wins eleven of twelve, they will win the season series. If the South wins all twelve games, they will be able to be able get to an even split in the season series, which means the South will retain the title. Eight of the twelve games are at the South team.

Georgia Southern Preview: End of a Road Trip

This road trip has been tough on the Mocs in more ways than one. They got hammered by Elon and lost to UNCG last Sunday afternoon. Maybe worst of all, they lost Dontay Hampton to a torn ACL for the remainder of the season.

Besides the obvious question that Hampton's absence ask (how will the Mocs be able to beat Appalachian State in the closing seconds now?), it raises some more serious questions. How will the Mocs handle life without his leadership on the court? How do the minutes break down at point guard? When will Hampton be hired as an assistant coach for the Mocs? (Seriously- Hampton would make an incredible assistant coach in the not too distant future for almost any team.)

What state of mind are the Mocs in at the end of this road trip? There's really no telling. That may be about as important as any other factor involved in this game.

Fortunately for the Mocs (but unfortunately for any prognosticator), Georgia Southern has been one of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams in the conference. This is the same team that won at home against Davidson and College of Charleston. They also lost three out of four since then, losing at home to The Citadel and at Appalachian State and at Furman. They won at Western Carolina, the team with the best SoCon record of any of those four teams.

Which Eagles team shows up in this one? No telling. Their seven point loss at Furman doesn't tell us anything either. The Eagles have been better at home than on the road, but have not been consistent there either, losing to The Citadel.

The Eagles have a potential NBA talent in Eric Ferguson. The 6-7 junior leads the team in scoring with 14.1 points per game and 7.2 boards per contest. He's made it to double digits in all but two games- an 18 point loss at Wofford, and a 19 point loss at Bradley. He shot 29.4% from the floor in those two games. In all other games, he has shot 49.3% from the floor. He is also averaging 15.1 points per game in the other contests. So Ferguson has been very good. He isn't as dominant as some people think he should be, but he is explosive. He also averages one block per game.

CJ Reed is second on the team in scoring with 12.1 points per game, along with a team high 3.8 assists per game. He is not a great shooter. He is shooting 37.6% from the field and 38% from three point range. He has made 41 threes on the year, a team high. He is a 6-3 guard, making Reed big for a point.

Cleon Roberts is the best three point shooter for the Eagles. He shot 42.0% from three, and 29 of 69 from long distance. He is averaging 8.2 points per game. As the Mocs always struggle to shut down a three point shooter, Roberts seems to be the most likely to go off from long range.

Kameron Dunnican is second on the team in blocks with 0.6 blocks per game. He is 6-8. He is a valuable part of the Eagles defensive strategy.

The Eagles have been struggling from three point range. They rank 11th in the SoCon in three point shooting since conference play started. They also rank 11th in three point defense. Also, opponents have shot better than 50% from two point range against them in conference games. They also have shot better than 50%. They have been forcing a high percentage of turnovers.

This is really a battle of pace. The Mocs play the second fastest pace in the SoCon, while the Eagles play the slowest pace.

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--Ferguson will not go off in "Trevis Simpson" Fashion. But he will score over 20 points.
--Roberts will make threes. Several.
--Z Mason and Drazen Zlovaric will have a difficult time being productive. Doesn't matter. Mason will still get his double-double. That's because he's good.
--I don't know how much Farad Cobb will play. If he plays at least twenty minutes and lets Rico White move off the ball, that will really help the Mocs offense. Cobb will play between ten and fifteen minutes. At the most.
--Gee McGhee will continue to show his development, making a couple of critical shots.
--Georgia Southern 68, Mocs 60. Which team of each shows up? If the Mocs shoot well from three point range, they can make this a game. The Eagles offense has been wildly inconsistent. If the Eagles offense doesn't show up, the Mocs could keep them under 60 points. If they do that, the Mocs will win. The problem is, the Mocs defense has not shown many signs of being capable of holding a team under 60 points- even a team as inconsistent offensively as the Eagles.

GO MOCS!

February in Preview

So here we go. The penultimate month of college basketball. And it's time to find out what these Mocs are made of.

This is the key month for the Mocs. It always has been. The thought was that the Mocs would improve throughout the year as the young team developed, and this month the Mocs have an incredible six home games in seven games at one point. The first game is at Georgia Southern and the last game is at Western Carolina. It is the middle seven games that have six home games.

So are the Mocs developing at a speed to win a bunch of these games and get on a roll heading into Asheville? We'll have to find out. It may not be this Saturday at Georgia Southern, but the next seven games are the key to the whole season at this point.

We'll have to wait and see what February brings.

Toughest Game: College of Charleston, February 9. Going to Western Carolina on the last day of February won't be easy, but the Cougars have been better on the road than at home so far this year. The Cougars beat the Mocs by 27 in Charleston. What is going to happen in Chattanooga if everything holds form? I don't even want to think about it. The Mocs are capable of winning this game on Legends Weekend, but it will take their best performance.

Easiest Game: The Citadel, February 7. The Mocs beat the Bulldogs on the road by five points. They lost at home against The Citadel last year. That game was the sign of how awful things had gotten for those Mocs. The Mocs really need to win this one. They are certainly capable of losing this one, but a home game against the team with the worst record in the conference has to be considered the easiest game on the schedule.

Most Important Game: Samford, February 11. After playing The Citadel on Thursday and College of Charleston on Saturday, the Mocs play a true toss up game on Monday. The Mocs beat the Bulldogs on the road, but since then, Samford has proven to be a tough out and are 5-3 in SoCon play. A win by the Mocs in this one could certainly keep them in the running for a bye, and getting a higher seed. A win here would provide some very important confidence for the Mocs moving forward. This game is huge- and likely it will be huge to both teams.

Predicted Record: 4-5. I'll go with losing at Georgia Southern and at Western Carolina for sure. I will also go with losing at home to College of Charleston. That means I'm picking 4-2 in the other six games. The other six are home against The Citadel, Samford, Furman, UNCG, and Elon along with a trip to Wofford. Seriously- 4-2 in those six games is possible, though 3-3 may be more likely. We'll see what happens.

GO MOCS!

Daily Dribbles- 2/1/13

--Hard to believe, but we've already reached February. Just one more month until March- the best month of the college basketball year. In 35 days, the SoCon Tournament gets underway. It's all happening.

--King Kresse has a nice wrap up on Wednesday night's Cougars win over Appalachian State.

--Furman is suddenly in pretty good position in the SoCon race. They are a half game up on Georgia Southern, a half game down to Appalachian State and UNCG, and tied with Chattanooga. They are ahead of Wofford and The Citadel. If the Paladins can beat The Citadel at home, suddenly, they would be 4-5 in the SoCon race. Then again, the Bulldogs win over Wofford has them a half game down on the Terriers. If they can win they can get back into the race for a slightly higher seed in the tourney. Furman-The Citadel is one of the more compelling games in the SoCon this Saturday. Who saw that coming?

--Western Carolina at Appalachian State and Samford at Elon are going to be two more compelling Saturday games. Elon is up by 1.5 games on Samford in the SoCon North race right now. Can the Phoenix basically put the North out of reach? Western and Appy need to win to stay in the bye race. Very good weekend slate.