Wednesday, February 29, 2012

SoCon Media Awards

Play the SoCon Tournament Challenge!

Nothing too surprising in the presentation of the SoCon Media Awards. Pretty straightforward. Cohen and Brooks basically split the Player of the Year Awards, because one wins the Media and one wins the Coaches. I guess that is one way to settle the debate between the two of them.

Check out all the awards here.

Check out SoCon Tournament Central!

If They Win The Tournament....Headlines Edition

Play the SoCon Tournament Challenge!
The twelve SoCon teams are all close. Look at the conference this year. Outside of Davidson at the top, the other eleven teams are all very evenly matched. You may be able to make an arguement that The Citadel lags behind,but when they won two games in the final eight days of the regular season, even they made it into this conversation.

Want proof? In the final Scanning the SoCon, the team ranked number two in the Power Rankings was Wofford. The team that was ranked number eleven in the Power Rankings was Chattanooga. The Mocs beat Wofford in their only regular season meeting, 51-48.

So parity reigns in the conference. In other words, if Davidson does not win the tournament, no team outside of The Citadel would be a huge surprise to win the tournament. Should be a very interesting weekend.

What will the headlines be like if each team wins the SoCon Tournament? Here's what the headline will look like if each team wins on Monday night when you open up the paper on Tuesday morning.

Appalachian State- Butts, Carter Out of the Doghouse, Into The Penthouse! For so much of this year, Omar Carter and Isaac Butts have been in the doghouse. A suspension, benchings, not starting. It's been a rough year. If the Mountaineers win the SoCon Tournament, it will be because Butts and Carter play like two of the ten best players in the SoCon, like they are capable of doing.
Charleston- Cougars Healthy Just In Time! The injuries to Trent Wiedeman, Adejhi Baru, Andrew Lawrence, and Anthony Stitt have held this team back. Now, they are all back and ready to go. If this team wins four games in four days, it will be because the team is all finally healthy and back together.
Chattanooga- Bounces Go Mocs Way On Way To Title! The Mocs have lost seven games by three points or less this year. If they win this tournament, it will be because some of those little things that have gone awry to cost them in those games will go their way. It will take a lot of little things, but that's what it will take.
Citadel- Groselle, Bulldogs Go To First NCAA Tournament! Mike Groselle will have to completely dominate for the Bulldogs to be able to advance to the NCAA Tournament. They have never gone to the NCAA Tournament- one of just a handful of teams to have never been the tournament. That would be a major headline on Tuesday morning.
Davidson- Wildcats Hot From Downtown To Go Dancing! There will be several times during this tournament, I would expect, that Davidson will need to make some shots from three point range instead of relying on their inside game. Davidson can do that. They are good enough shooting from long range to pull it off. It's really only if they are cold that will be a problem. That's how they lose in the tournament.
Elon- Phoenix Rise From Their Own Ashes- Find Way To Tournament! Elon has been cold lately. They have been stumbling, after starting off like they might be one of the best teams in the SoCon. They won their way into the bye, but kind of backed into it with five losses in their last six games. If they win, the story will be that they finally found whatever spark had been missing in the last few weeks.
Furman- Paladins Defense Wins Championships! Furman has a pretty solid defensive team, and if the Paladins win the SoCon Tournament, they will do it because of their defense. They are not a great offensive team, but they are a solid defensive team. They will need to bring their defense every game to win the championship.

Georgia Southern- Finally! Eagles Show Maturity and Mental Toughness! The Eagles have traditionally struggled in the SoCon Tournament. In recent weeks, they have struggled to do what was necessary to wrap up the bye. If Georgia Southern wins, it will be because they have grown up a little bit during this week off, and show the maturity and mental toughness necessary to win big games.
Samford- Windler Shoots Bulldogs To The Dance! The Bulldogs best player is Drew Windler, and if he is hot shooting the ball, the Bulldogs will have chance to win this thing. Samford's offense, which requires so much patience to cover, could cause problems, but the big thing will be what Windler does.

UNC-Greensboro- Welcome to Springfield! Simpson leads Spartans to NCAA! In honor of the TV show, The Simpsons, sharing a name with the player who has to be the most dominant player in the tournament for Spartans to win, Trevis Simpson, there will be some cute headline about Springfield, the setting of The Simpsons. Yep- cute. Sounds like an ESPN headline to me. It's better than their headline about Jeremy Lin.

Western Carolina- Mutombo Shines as Catamounts Prevail! If the Catamounts are the SoCon Champs on Monday night, the feeling will be universally that Mutombo and his leadership took over the tournament. He may not dominate scoring, but his leadership will shine through and be the reason that the Catamounts survived.

Wofford- Back-To-Back-To-Back! Regardless of what any one player does, a Terriers win will be highlighted by the fact that the Terriers will have won the SoCon Tournament for the third straight year. My bet is that Karl Cochran will be the star if they pull it off, but Loesing and Giltner would be great, too. This is a very interesting team to watch.

Check out SoCon Tourney Central!

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Official SoCon Postseason Awards

Play the SoCon Tournament Challenge!

The SoCon released their official postseason awarsds list on Tuesday afternoon. This the day after I released my postseason awards list. Their "teams" look remarkably similar to mine, while their awards looked a little different. None of them were overly surprising.

Follow the link here.

Check out SoCon Tournament Central!

If They Win The Tournament...Seeding Edition

Play the SoCon Tournament Challenge!

Everyone wants to know where their team will be seeded if they get into the Big Dance. It's brough a whole industry of Bracketologists to the forefront. The only way to get into the Tournament, more than likely, if you are from the SoCon is to win the tournament.

I'll spend some serious time analyzing the seed of whatever team wins the tournament- even providing you with my own version of Bracketology late Saturday night on the night before Selection Sunday. (If something changes, oh well- at least it's something.)

But here's a breakdown of what kind of seed every team should be expecting if they win the SoCon Tournament. This is based on RPI and the whole nine yards. It's also based on the idea that surprise teams win conference tournaments every year, so what looks like a surefire 16 seed right now may not be by this time ten days from now.

In alphabetical order:

Appalachian State- Play in game. This will become a common theme for many teams in the SoCon. The Mountaineers would have a losing overall record if they won the SoCon Tournament. That makes them unlikely to be anything but a play-in game participant. Though, I think you would have to admit that playing Omar Carter, Isaac Butts, and Andre Williamson in the first game would not be fun for a number one seed if they were playing well.

Charleston- 14. The Cougars are not in great shape right now, but if they find a way to win four games in four days, they will be one of the higher seeds for a SoCon team. They will own a win over Tennessee, which is looking better and better all the tie. They will possibly have beaten Davidson twice. They will have played Louisville very close on the road. The Cougars should be able to claw their way up to a 14 seed.

Chattanoooga- Play in game.  The Mocs are another team that no major team would particularly care to face in their first game, but would have to go the play in route. Keep in mind that the Mocs were ahead of Indiana late in the first half and hung within striking distance into the second half against Kentucky, plus played Tennessee and Butler very close. If the Mocs win four games in four days, it will mean that they finally put it all together for more than one game, and they have potential to be somewhat dangerous to a major team in the first round. But with their awful record, there is no way to avoid the play in game.

Citadel- Play in game. Well, Mike Groselle has been great, but it's hard to imagine that he would match up well against the nation's best. He's the only thing that would give the Bulldogs hope in the Tournament. But the Bulldogs are nowhere near getting out of the play in game.

Davidson- 13. The Wildcats own a win over a Kansas team that could easily be a number one seed. That alone bumps them up a seed line. That's why I don't understand people like Lunardi have them as a 15 seed. They are going to be a 14 without any problem, and I think a 12 or 13 is well within reach. Can you imagine being the two seed that draws a Davidson team that already beat Kansas? They would be furious. The Wildcats will earn the highest seed easily of any SoCon team if they win the tournament. I would not be surprised to see Davidson get a 12 seed with a tournament win.

Elon- 16. Call this a really wild hunch, but I think if the Phoenix win the tournament they avoid the play-in game. Their win over South Carolina nudges them out of the play-in game, especially if they beat Davidson and either Charleston or Wofford to win the tournament. This team has that one "quality" (yes, South Carolina is terrible, but an SEC team still) win that should be enough to bump them out of the games in Dayton.

Furman- Play in game. The Paladins would have a winning record if they won the SoCon Tournament, but I believe their lack of a true, quality out of conference win would keep them from being anywhere but the play in games in Dayton. They may have a bit of a beef, but not much of one. The diffference between Elon and Furman? The Phoenix beat South Carolina.

Georgia Southern- Play in game. The Eagles would have a winning record too if they won the SoCon Tournament, but with NO wins out of conference against D1 competition, it is really hard to see them getting anything except for a spot in Dayton in the play in game. If they had won a couple of out of conference games, they would probably be able to get a 16 seed. If they do get to the NCAA, look out. Their athleticism is through the roof. Their maturity and confidence? Not so much, but if they navigate the SoCon Tournament, no one should be eager to play them.

Samford- Play in game. No doubt the Bulldogs would be in the play in game. The losing record would not get them out of it. Princeton nearly took out a number one seed once running the same offense the Bulldogs run. Could Samford do the same thing? Probably not.

UNC-Greensboro- Play in game. This team's turnaround has been great, but they are not worthy of anything but the play in game. The Spartans, with a healthy Trevis Simpson and a hot Darelle Armstrong, would be dangerous against a number one seed, especially since they've already played (and played reasonably at times) against some pretty good teams.

Western Carolina- Play in game. This team would have a losing record if they won the SoCon Tournament. So a play in game would be in the cards. The Catamounts would be wildly outsized by any number one seed, too. They have a shot in the SoCon, but hard to see them being super-competitive in an NCAA Tournament game, but you never know.

Wofford- 15. Here's where the committee being human comes into play. Seeing the Terriers back in the tournament for the third straight year after playing well the first two times probably bumps them up a seed or two. They could get a 14 seed just for that reason. They are an interesting case for the tournament committee if they can get that far.

Check out SoCon Tournament Central!

Monday, February 27, 2012

Final SoCon Player of the Week

With no Double Dribbles this week, it would be remiss for us to not mention Trey Sumler won the Player of the Week last week in the SoCon. Western Carolina's guard averaged 19.5 points per game and 8 assists and 8 rebounds in last week's games. Those wins helped the Catamounts propel to the number three seed in the North, and get a somewhat favorable draw in the SoCon Tournament bracket. Sumler was one of the main reasons I picked Western Carolina to finish second in the North in the preseason, and his continued good play could be critical to the Catamounts making a run to the NCAA Tournament.

MocsMania Official Mocs Awards 2012

BEST PLAYER

Ricky Taylor. Not sure who to pick here, because there was no one who was consistently good for the Mocs this year. Taylor was probably the most consistently good player on the team. Keegan Bell, Drazen Zlovaric, and Omar Wattad all could lay claim to this, and even Jahmal Burroughs did enough at times to make people think that he could get this. But I'm sticking with Taylor- a great student, citizen, and basketball player.

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER

Dontay Hampton. Wow. Little Tay was not expected to be this good. Sure, he was adequate last year, but this year he more than proved his worth. He can certainly play the two guard, and maybe even play the point next year. Hampton has become one of the team's better shooters. In fact, JR said that Hampton is the best pure shooter on the team...and he said it consistently. Hampton also has been driving the ball more lately. Hampton is a really good player. He may not be the best player in the SoCon, but he has earned his scholarship.

BEST JUNIOR

Drazen Zlovaric. Big Z has proven that he can be an effective inside player and an effective rebounder. He did a great job several times this year. To be the dominant player that he can be, he'll have to be more consistent next year. If he learns to bring his game consistently, Zlovaric could be one of the best players in the whole SoCon next year.

BEST SOPHOMORE

Z Mason. Man, I love Z Mason. He is going to be a big part of next year's team too. Combine him and Zlovaric down low, and the post looks very solid next year for the Mocs. It may be one of the better post play combinations in the SoCon, in fact. Z is a big body, and it is going to be a solid contributor.

BEST FRESHMAN

Rico White. Here are the facts. If you watch a game, when Rico White and Dontay Hampton are in the game, the Mocs play a calmer, better game. White is a good shooter, and clearly has game. He is a very good player, and should be a major contributor to the Mocs for years to come.

BEST FINISH

Hampton for the win vs. Appalachian State, January 7. When Hampton corralled the rebound and went the length of the court agains the Mountaineers on January 7 for the 65-63 win, people thought the Mocs were on their way. That increased their streak to five wins in six games, got them back to 2-2 in SoCon play and seemed to indicate that bigger and better things were on the way for the Mocs. Unfortunately, this was the first game of Keegan Bell's shooting slump (that he has hopefully broken out of) and the first game that Ricky Taylor played with a hurt wrist (that he has hopefully fully recovered from). There were signs here of future trouble, but for this one night, there was nothing but positives.

BEST WIN

51-48 over Wofford, January 12. The Mocs win over the Terriers put the Mocs up to 3-2 in SoCon play. They won just two more games the rest of the year. But this was a quality win, that looks even better now that the Terriers are the two seed from the tough South Division, and have the second best league mark. The Mocs proved that day that they can beat some of the best teams in the SoCon. If they can re-harness that energy, they may be able to win in Asheville. This was a great win for the Mocs, that still rings true as a very solid performance.

GO MOCS!

MocsMania Official SoCon Awards 2012

These are just my opinion. Take them for what they are worth. Maybe not much. But I did watch a ton of SoCon basketball all year long of every team. But I know that I'm opening myself up to some criticism here.

All SoCon 1st Team

De'Mon Brooks, Davidson
Jake Cohen, Davidson
Eric Ferguson, Georgia Southern
Mike Groselle, The Citadel
Trevis Simpson, UNC-Greensboro

All SoCon 2nd Team

Kevin Giltner, Wofford
Jake Isenbarger, Elon
Brad Loesing, Wofford
Antwaine Wiggins, College of Charleston
Drew Windler, Samford

Thoughts: The first team seems clear to me, while the second team is a little less clear. Elon's Lucas Troutman also was in contention for a spot, along with Davidson's JP Kuhlman and Nik Cochran. Tren Wiedeman probably a earned another spot for College of Charleston too. Harouna Mutombo is somewhat deserving as well. This is a tough list for the second team

PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Trevis Simpson, UNC-Greensboro. His stats don't completely add up to this award, but when you watch Simpson play, the doubt disappears. He is the best player in the conference when you watch him. Combine that with the fact that no one player means more to his team than Simpson, and it is even more obvious.

COACH OF THE YEAR

Mike Young, Wofford. Wofford was expected to finish in the bottom half of the SoCon South. They wound up getting a bye. With everyone that left the Terriers back-to-back SoCon Championship runs, to be this successful is pretty impressive. Young is the most deserving coach in my opinion.

ALL FRESHMAN

Adejhi Baru, College of Charleston
Karl Cochran, Wofford
Austin Hamilton, Elon
Tyler Hood, Samford
Raijon Kelly, Samford

Thoughts: Not a super strong year for freshman, but not an altogether disaster. Several other players contributed to their teams, and will be major contributors next year.

FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR

Karl Cochran, Wofford- He's the player that I think is the most important to the Terriers tournament success. When he is on, the Terriers are almost impossible to beat. When he isn't, the Terriers are just average.

MOST SUPRISING TEAM

Wofford- Who saw this year coming for them? Not many Terrier fans could have possibly seen that coming. Very impressive showing by Wofford.

MOST DISAPPOINTING TEAM

Chattanooga- The Mocs were picked to finish first in the North. They finished last. Ouch. The Mocs were easily the most disappointing team in the SoCon this year.

Scanning the SoCon- Week Seventeen: The Tournament Edition

I invite you to check back daily and see the daily post on the SoCon Tournament. To see all the posts for the week, check out SoCon Tournament Central 2012. Also, play the SoCon Tourney Challenge. Should be a really exciting week of SoCon action.

DavidsonCats- Davidson fan.
MocsMania- Chattanooga fan.
TheSportsArsenal- Citadel fan.
UNCGBasketballFan- UNC-Greensboro fan.

SCHEDULE

Friday, March 2
College of Charleston vs. Appalachian State (11:30)
Western Carolina vs. The Citadel (2:00)
Samford vs. Furman (6:00)
Georgia Southern vs. Chattanooga (8:30)

Saturday, March 3
UNC-Greensboro vs. College of Charleston/Appalachian State (12:00)
Wofford vs. Western Carolina/The Citadel (2:30)
Davidson vs. Samford/Furman (6:00)
Elon vs. Georgia Southern/Chattanooga (8:30)

Sunday, March 4
Semifinal #1 (6:00)
Semifinal #2 (8:30)

Monday, March 5
Championship Game (9:00)

POWER RANKINGS

1) Davidson 48 (4)
2) Wofford 44
3) Georgia Southern 38
4) UNC-Greensboro 36
5t) College of Charleston 31
5t) Elon 31
7t) Furman 21
7t) Samford 21
9) Western Carolina 18
10) Appalachian State 12
11) Chattanooga 8
12) The Citadel 4

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team.

DavidsonCats- It was a great regular season for the Wildcats. They finished 22-7 with an RPI in the 60's and a conference record of 16-2. This week we saw dominating wins over Elon and GSU, the return of a healthy De'Mon Brooks, and defense and rebounding that were good enough to take care of business when the shooting was a little cold. We approach the tournament with an NIT bid in the pocket, but nobody wants to use it. Back-to-back losses in our opening game make me nervous about the tournament, but it looks like a great tournament awaits us in a fantastic location. Can't wait for the opening tip between ASU and CofC.

MocsMania- The Mocs disappointing loss to Furman that completed their quest to become Road Pacifists (the opposite of Road Warriors) frustrated all Moc fans, but Saturday night showed why Moc fans have had hope all season long. The seniors played very well, the defense was good enough, the team didn't turn the ball over, and suddenly they looked like a good team. The Mocs were up 15 on Samford with one minute left. Z Mason returned from injury this week. The Mocs started shooting better. Is that the beginning of something that carries over to Asheville? Can Mason be the difference? (In case anyone doesn't know, I think Z Mason could be a really solid  player in this league.) If the Mocs shoot well in Asheville, they can make noise. If they aren't shooting well, it's probably one and done.

TheSportsArsenal- The Citadel split its last two league games of the season, with a solid victory over Appalachian State followed by a disappointing loss to the College of Charleston. Turnovers, a problem throughout the season for the Bulldogs, were a key reason for the loss to the Cougars. Mike Groselle boarded like a demon in both games, adding two more double-doubles to his record. Now The Citadel will prepare for the SoCon tournament, an event that has bedeviled the program over the years.

UNCGBasketballFan- UNCG is limping into the tournament. Losses to Ga Southern, Wofford and Elon have soured what had turned into a great run by UNCG. Trevis Simpson has really not been the player he was over the last 2 months. He didn't play at all in the Elon game and wasn't very effective in the other 2 games. As a result the team is playing fully out of sync with guys trying to do more than they should on both ends of the court. It's not a recipe for a team that plans on making any kind of a run to the tournament championship. The good news is that UNCG still won their first ever outright SoCon divisional title. Quite impressive considering where the team was when the calender flipped to 2012.

Which team playing on Friday (outside of your team, so as not to jinx it) has the best chance to win the SoCon Tournament? Why?

DavidsonCats- CofC. Check out these numbers from live-rpi: They calculate that CofC has a 16.59% chance to win the auto-bid. The next best chance among Friday's teams is GSU at 3.61%. They also have CofC's RPI under 80 with a tournament championship. That's not bad, certainly no worry of a play-in game or a 16 seed if CofC is the representative. CofC is the most healthy that they've been in many weeks. Weideman is playing like a beast, Stitt is back, Lawrence has someone who can give him some rest, Nori Johnson is playing some great ball, and Antwaine Wiggins has been superb as a senior. They have a great shot, even though 4 games in 4 days is tough.

MocsMania- College of Charleston. The Cougars are clearly the best team playing on Friday. Ironically, there are four really talented teams playing on Friday- Charleston, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Chattanooga. The ironic thing is that they are all playing each other. Yes, Western Carolina-The Citadel and Samford-Furman will be interesting and they are tough match-ups. But Charleston is the most talented bunch, and with Anthony Stitt back from injury, the Cougars are a dangerous bunch. They won't have to play Davidson until the Championship Game, if they get that far- and I think they can.

TheSportsArsenal- The most talented team playing on Friday is the College of Charleston, so I suppose the CofC has the best shot. Anthony Stitt's return will help the Cougars. I also think the CofC got a favorable draw, with Davidson on the other side of the bracket and with both Friday's and Saturday's opponents (assuming the CofC prevails on Friday) being North division teams.

UNCGBasketballFan- I thought Charleston played well above it's head early in the year. After a middle of the year slump, I think they are starting to find their stride again. They have plenty of talent and it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a deep run.

Which team not playing on Friday (outside of your team, so as not to jinx it) is most likely to be upset early in the tournament? Why?

DavidsonCats- UNCG. They are struggling. ASU or CofC will be a very tough game for them. Or for anyone else. I'm glad that my favorite team drew the Samford/Furman winner instead of the ASU/CofC winner.

MocsMania- Elon. The Phoenix are clearly the most susceptible to an upset, though the Spartans could lose as well if Trevis Simpson is not fully healthy for UNCG. Elon played well on Saturday against UNCG, but have been struggling lately. They will need to play much better to advance in the tournament on Saturday night in the late game.

TheSportsArsenal- UNCG is the top seed in the North but could get the CofC on Saturday. I would favor the Cougars in that matchup.

UNCGBasketballFan- Elon. I'm not confident that any team from the North Division has a chance to really make a splash in Asheville.

What potential semifinals match-up would be most interesting?

DavidsonCats- Chattanooga/Furman and Citadel/ASU would be interesting. I like underdogs and upsets. Seeing 4 BBIT champs make it to Sunday would be fun. But I'll go with CofC/Wofford and Davidson/Chattanooga as the most interesting matchups. We'd have good crowds for both games. Byington trying a win a job. Shulman trying to avoid losing a job. Davidson trying to validate the great regular season. Chattanooga going from zero wins away from the Roundhouse this year to trying to win 3 or 4 in a row. Wofford trying to go back to back to back.

MocsMania- Honestly, Wofford against Charleston or UNCG would be pretty intriguing. The two time reigning champs trying to get back to their third consecutive title game would be tremendous, and those two teams are both good enough to beat the Terriers. On the other side, Davidson against Elon is probably the most interesting, since Matt Matheny used to coach for Davidson and now is the head coach at Elon. Those two teams are so similar, that a semifinal match-up might prove to be a bruising, interesting affair.

TheSportsArsenal- Wofford-CofC could be an interesting semifinal, if that matchup winds up happening. I don't see Davidson having a problem with any of its potential opponents on the other side of the bracket.

UNCGBasketballFan- I think UNCG-Wofford would be a fun game to watch. I thought last Tuesday's matchup would have been a very fun and competitive game. Then Trevis Simpson didn't play and UNCG seemed dissinterested. A Sunday night Asheville rematch with Simpson in the Spartan lineup could be fun to watch.

What player is the most likely breakout star of the tournament?

DavidsonCats- Give me Chris Czerapowicz. At times this season, he has looked like Davidson's best player. He had a recent stretch where he scored 91 points in 6 games. In the 2 wins this week, he only scored 8 points, but he grabbed 16 rebounds. If Davidson does well, I think Chris will go for big numbers and play well on defense.

MocsMania- I'm trying to go off the radar here, but I'm afraid that I'm staying right on the radar. If Wofford advances to the championship game, then we all know about Kevin Giltner and Brad Loesing. But Karl Cochran is still not a household name around the SoCon. The freshman is the most important player the Terriers have, in my opinion. He's not their best three point shooter- but the Terriers are a different team when he is hitting from three. Giltner shoots more for a higher percentage, but Cochran is the juice on this team. If Wofford is in the championship game, you can bet that Cochran will have had at least one if not two really solid performances.

TheSportsArsenal- I don't know about a breakout star, but if the idea is for some relative unknown to have a big tournament, I'll go with somebody getting hot from 3-land whose team will play several tourney games. Davidson's Chris Czerapowicz will be my "pick to click".

UNCGBasketballFan- I'm gonna go with an unlikely star on a the likely winning team. Davidson's Chris Czerapowicz. For Davidson to win the championship, they will need to hit their 3 point shots better than they have over the past few games. Czerapowicz is a very good shooter and I think has the ability to carry the Wildcats if Brooks or Cohen find themselves in foul trouble in Asheville.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

SoCon Tourney Challenge 2012

Think you can pick the Southern Conference Tournament? Want to put your pride on the line against other SoCon fans and see if you are right? Been reading Scanning the SoCon all year and think you know way more than any of us about the SoCon?

There are no prizes- just merely pride on the line in this SoCon Tourney Challenge.

Pick every game in the tournament all the way through the bracket. For example, if you pick The Citadel to pick Western Carolina on Friday night, you should pick who you think will win the match-up between The Citadel and Wofford. Pick all eleven games in the tournament.

But there is a catch. Each team has points awarded based on seeding. If you pick The Citadel to win, you get six points if they actually do.  If you pick Davidson to win, you get one point if they actually do. If you are unsure of the seed for each team, the list is below.

There are tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is the total points in the title game, so be sure to include that in your picks. The next tiebreaker is that it starts with points won in each round starting in the championship game and working backwards to Friday's action.

You can post your picks in the comments section or send me an e-mail at MocsBasketball97@yahoo.com by midnight Thursday night. Be sure to include in the subject line "SoCon Tourney Challenge" so I don't accidentally delete it as spam mail.

I hope that a lot of people join. I'll publish updates to the standings at the end of each round for sure- I'd like to think that I would be able to post updates at the end of each session, but I don't want to commit to that.
If we have enough people, I'll try to post percentages of picks for each team on Thursday or Friday. We'll see.

Good luck to everyone. I look forward to the competition.

Points By Team
Davidson-1
UNC-Greensboro-1
Elon-2
Wofford-2
Georgia Southern-3
Western Carolina-3
College of Charleston-4
Samford-4
Appalachian State-5
Furman-5
Chattanooga-6
The Citadel-6

Mocs 86, Samford 78

FOUR FACTORS (plus two)

eFG%
Mocs- 55.3%
Samford- 51.5%
Advantage- Mocs

TO%
Mocs- 17.9%
Samford- 15.2%
Advantage- Samford

OR%
Mocs- 31.4%
Samford- 27.5%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Mocs- 59.7%
Samford- 24.2%
Advantage- Mocs

FT%
Mocs- 67.7%
Samford- 62.5%
Advantage- Mocs

3PtRate
Mocs- 43.9%
Samford- 43.9%

PLAYER RATER

Overall
1) Keegan Bell 38.4
2) Jahmal Burroughs 37.7
3) Z Mason 16.1
4) Ricky Taylor 15.0
5) Dontay Hampton 13.3
6) Omar Wattad 12.1
7) Drazen Zlovaric 10.7
8) Rico White 2.7
9t) Jared Bryant 0.0
9t) Drew Baker 0.0
9t) Martynas Bareika 0.0
9t) Trey Brown 0.0
9t) Lance Stokes 0.0

Per 40
1) Jahmal Burroughs 57.9
2) Keegan Bell 41.5
3) Z Mason 35.7
4) Dontay Hampton 25.2
5) Ricky Taylor 23.0
6) Omar Wattad 21.0
7) Drazen Zlovaric 14.7
8) Rico White 7.7
9t) Jared Bryant 0.0
9t) Drew Baker 0.0
9t) Martynas Bareika 0.0
9t) Trey Brown 0.0
9t) Lance Stokes 0.0

ANALYSIS

What a great night for the seniors!

The Mocs had four players in double digits. It was all four seniors for the Mocs. Keegan Bell had a dominant second half. Omar Wattad started off the game hot. Ricky Taylor had a solid finish, including a dagger three late in the game. Jahmal Burroughs did not miss a shot from the floor all night long.

Let's face it- this is the Mocs we've expected to see for so much of the season. Z Mason played well, Dontay Hampton and Rico White played well enough, Zlovaric was solid, and the four seniors were tremendous.

The Mocs played a solid game against a team that with a win would have gotten a bye. The Mocs were desperately wanting to get back into a positive frame of mind so that they could make a run at the SoCon Tournament. It is not impossible that the Mocs win a couple of games in Asheville. They will have to continue playing this way.

But for this night, it was a nice night to honor the seniors. It was a nice way for them to go out, and they deserved to go out that way. They were very good on this night. The fans applauded them, and they earned the applause. After the hot start, the Mocs trailed at the half and could have faded, but they did not. Keegan Bell looked like the Keegan Bell from before the slump started in mid-January, and the team, at least for this one night, looked like the team that was supposed to contend for the SoCon title.

Will it continue in Asheville? The Mocs, and their fans, can only hope.

GO MOCS!

Samford Preview: Senior Night

The Mocs Senior Night is Saturday night. Jahmal Burroughs, Omar Wattad, Ricky Taylor, and Keegan Bell will all be playing their final home game.

Regardless of how bad the Mocs have played this year, the seniors have been a special part of this basketball program. Keegan Bell holds a Mocs record with the most assists in the history of the program. Ricky Taylor has scored over 1000 points. Wattad was an All SoCon performer last year. Burroughs has been an important effort player on each of the last two years.

I hope that everyone turns around and really applauds the seniors.This is a night to celebrate these seniors and put all the other stuff behind for this night. It's time to honor them. They have earned that.

This game is critical for the Bulldogs. A win by the Bulldogs earns them a bye in the SoCon Tournament.

The first time the Mocs and Bulldogs played, the Mocs were 3-2 in SoCon play. Samford was 0-4 in the SoCon at the time. Samford's win that day turned the tide on both team's season. Samford has gone 8-5 since then. The Mocs have gone 1-11 since then. What a monster turnaround by the two teams.

Drew Windler is the leading scorer on the Bulldogs. He is averaging 14.2 points per game. Windler really had a huge game against the Mocs in their first meeting. He is shooting 43% from three point range.

Freshman Raijon Kelly and Tyler Hood both have provided the Bulldogs with a huge lift heading into the SoCon Tournament. Hood is second on the team in scoring, while Kelly is second on the team in assists. Kelly has been a big key to the Bulldogs getting going this well.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

--Rebounding. The Mocs will need to rebound exceptionally well in order to win this game.
--Patience. The Mocs are an impatient team playing the Bulldogs, the team you have to be the most patient against in the whole SoCon.
--Emotions. It's Senior Night. Sometimes emotions run high on senior night. With the season the Mocs have had and the emotions that the seniors are likely to have, can they harness that in this game?

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs seniors will all have their moments on Saturday night.
--Windler will have his moments to, as will both freshman for the Bulldogs.
--The Mocs future will be on display too, as Jared Bryant will have a big game. (How's that for an out of nowhere prediction?)
--Mocs 65, Samford 61. The Mocs are going to be lead by their seniors, and Bryant and Z Mason are going to have good games (gut feeling). In the end, it will be a couple of big plays from Wattad, Bell, and Taylor that will put them over the top. Mocs come up with one final home win.

GO MOCS!

Friday, February 24, 2012

What It All Means- Saturday Edition

Appalachian State at Western Carolina (2:00)

The loser of this game is guaranteed to get a five seed from the North. They will be forced to play College of Charleston on Friday morning at 11:30 AM. In other words, neither of these teams will want to lose this game. It will be a difficult game against the Cougars on Friday.

Appalachian State can still get the three seed if they win this game, and if either Samford or Elon lose their game.

Western Carolina can still get the bye if they win and if Elon and Samford both lose. Western Carolina will get the three seed if they win and either Samfor or Elon lose.

In other words, the winner is in a much better position come the SoCon Tournament.

College of Charleston at The Citadel (3:00, SoCon Sports Network/ESPN3)

This is the game that means the least- and yet it some ways it means the most. The Cougars have locked up the the 4S and the Bulldogs have clinched the 6S. Neither can move from that position. The Bulldogs have won back-to-back games, and if they can win a third game, they will really be going into the tournament with a lot of confidence. The Cougars are hoping to keep on winning to continue building up their confidence as well and to get Anthony Stitt more and more acclimated to playing again. This is an intense rivalry, and is a televised game, so the stakes will be high for this one.

Davidson at Georgia Southern (7:00)

This game means very little to Davidson outside of momentum and potentially improving their seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are the 1S and there is no way around it.

Georgia Southern, on the other hand, has a ton on the line. The Eagles need to win to wrap up the bye in Asheville next week. The bye would also put them on the other side of the bracket from Davidson. A loss combined with a win by Wofford would knock them out of the bye and put them on the same side of the bracket as the Wildcats. A loss and a Wofford loss would still hurt them, because they would have the doubt of whether or not they could really beat Davidson in their minds. This is a very important game to Georgia Southern.

UNC-Greensboro at Elon (7:00)

The Spartans have clinched the number one seed in the North, despite losing back-to-back games. They need to win this game just to get back to winning. Suddenly, they are not one of the hottest teams in the league. A win would get them back on that track.

Elon needs a win to try to get the bye. They need a win combined with a Samford loss. A win along with a Samford win would put the Phoenix in the third seed, which would be big, because the third seed will play The Citadel who has been struggling most of the year. An Elon loss drops them all the way to the fourth seed, regardless of what any other team does.

Furman at Wofford (7:00)

The Paladins are playing to get to .500 in SoCon play. They blew their chance at any higher seed than that,but they are locked into the 5S.

Wofford is trying to win to get the bye. If the Terriers win, they can get the 2S if Georgia Southern loses as well. A Terriers loss or a Georgia Southern win would guarantee Wofford the 3S. This is a critical game for the Terriers. With the two top minutes men in the whole SoCon on the Terriers, and the fact that no team has ever won the SoCon Tournament with four wins in four days, the Terriers really need that bye.

Samford at Chattanooga (8:00)

Chattanooga needs a win in the worst way to try to get some sort of positive momentum heading into Asheville. Any sort of positive momentum would do.

The Bulldogs are still in the quest for the 2N. If they beat Chattanooga, they are guaranteed the bye and to be the 2N. If they lose, Appalachian State wins, and Elon loses, they will also get the 2N. If Elon wins and Samford loses, they will fall to 4N, behind Elon and the winner of Appalachian State and Western Carolina. Samford will also fall to 3N if Elon loses and Western Carolina wins.

SoCon Tournament Central 2012

Links will be posted as the articles become available:

SoCon Tournament Challenge Entry
Bracket
SoCon Travel
Scanning the SoCon- Week Seventeen
MocsMania SoCon Awards
Official SoCon Coaches Awards
Official SoCon Media Awards
If They Won The Tournament....Seed Edition
If They Won The Tournament....Headline Edition
Day One Preview
Day One Review
Day Two Preview
Day Two Review
Semifinals Preview
Semifinals Review
Championship Preview
Championship Review
All SoCon Tournament Team

Double Dribbles- 2-24-12

1) With Charleston's win on Thursday night over Georgia Southern and Davidson's win over Elon, now six of the twelve seeds have been clinched heading into Saturday's action. The 1N will belong to UNCG, and the 6N will belong to Chattanooga. The 1S will belong to Davidson, the 4S will belong to College of Charleston, the 5S will belong to Furman, and the 6S will be The Citadel. Georgia Southern and Wofford are battling it out for the 2S and 3S, while Samford and Elon can get anywhere from 2N to 4N, Western Carolina can get anywhere from 2N to 5N, and Appalachian State can get anywhere from 3N to 5N. Should make for a very interesting Saturday.

2) The team that is most dangerous with a bye that can still get it is Wofford. The Terriers could be the 2S if they beat Furman and Georgia Southern loses to Davidson. If they get that, suddenly the two time reigning champs will be on the opposite end of the bracket from Davidson, and would be able to play just three games in three days with their starting line-up that features Kevin Giltner and Brad Loesing playing huge minutes. To be the champs, you gotta beat the champs. Wofford is incredibly dangerous if they get that bye.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Furman 65, Mocs 55

FOUR FACTORS (plus two)

eFG%
Mocs- 36.1%
Furman- 46.2%
Advantage- Furman

TO%
Mocs- 17.2%
Furman- 18.7%
Advantage- Mocs

OR%
Mocs- 25.0%
Furman- 36.1%
Advantage- Furman

FTRate
Mocs- 44.4%
Furman- 54.7%
Advantage- Furman

FT%
Mocs- 66.7%
Furman- 55.2%
Advantage- Mocs

3PtRate
Mocs- 35.2%
Furman- 43.4%

PLAYER RATER

Overall
1) Ricky Taylor 15.6
2) Jared Bryant 14.1
3) Rico White 10.5
4) Z Mason 9.8
5) Keegan Bell 9.0
6) Lance Stokes 5.7
7) Drazen Zlovaric 5.2
8) Jahmal Burroughs 5.1
9) Trey Brown 4.2
10) Omar Wattad 4.0
11) Dontay Hampton 2.2
12) Martynas Bareika 0.0

Per 40

1) Trey Brown 84.0
2) Jared Bryant 28.1
3) Ricky Taylor 25.9
4) Lance Stokes 25.1
5) Z Mason 24.5
6) Rico White 18.3
7) Drazen Zlovaric 17.3
8) Keegan Bell 14.4
9) Jahmal Burroughs 9.6
10) Omar Wattad 7.6
11) Dontay Hampton 3.5
12) Martynas Bareika 0.0

ANALYSIS

Another road game. Another road loss.

For lack of a better description (as discussed in the Furman Preview), I will call the Mocs "Road Pacificsts." It's the opposite of "Road Warriors" and since the Mocs failed to win on the road this year, they earned this title.

There are some strange things that jump off the scoresheet at me. One of those things is how little Bell played. He played just 25 minutes. He is normally up way over 30 in games. I think Coach Shulman is trying to get some of his starters a little bit of rest heading into the SoCon Tournament. With how much Bell has played this year, that may not be a bad idea.

The biggest thing in this game was the fouls. It was called both ways, but there were 40 fouls called in this one. Of those 40, there were 22 called in the first half. That doesn't necessarily mean that they were bad calls, just that with all the fouls called, the game really lacked rhythm. Also, both teams really struggled from three point range. The Mocs were 3 of 11 from long range in the first half and 2 of 8 in the second half. Furman was 0 for 10 in the first half and 5 of 13 in the second half. The improved second half shooting by Furman is why they were able to put the game away.

There were bright spots for the Mocs. Z Mason's return was welcome and he looked OK. Not as good as before the injury, but he was working off some rust. Also, Trey Brown played with a lot of energy in the closing two minutes. He scored once and collected two rebounds. He looks like he will be a decent contributor next year.

The big thing is going to be energy and shots falling in Asheville. The Mocs did not play with a ton of energy tonight. Of course, with nothing on the line, maybe they are just lacking energy. Maybe Saturday night on Senior Night, some emotions will get rolling and the Mocs will play with more energy and then that will carry over into Asheville. That's the only hope at this point.

I would be remiss to not point that the Mocs lost their twentieth game of the year on Thursday night. This is the first time this has happened in the D1 era for the Mocs.

GO MOCS!

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Recap: Western Carolina 79, Samford 77

I take back all my negative feelings on Western Carolina. They are definitely a contender for the bye in the North. That may or may not be a compliment, but the Catamounts are right in the picture, and deserve to be after beating Elon and Samford in back-to-back games.

Western Carolina jumped out to a double digits lead, but Samford faught and clawed back into the game. They showed plenty of heart and plenty of fight in getting back into it.

Western Carolina will get the bye if they beat Appalachian State on Saturday, Elon loses to UNCG, and Samford loses to Chattanooga. They will get it by virtue of eliminating Samford from the tie because both Elon and Western Carolina would have split with UNCG and Samford was swept by the Spartans. But Western Carolina swept Samford, and Elon was swept by them.

Samford on the other hand has one easy way to get the bye. That is to beat Chattanooga. If they beat Chattanooga, they absolutely get the bye. If they lose to Chattanooga, they absolutely do not get the bye. A loss to the Mocs and a win by Elon would push Samford all the way to the 4N. A loss to the Mocs and an Elon loss would push Samford down to the 3N, Western Carolina if they win. A win by Appy would give Samford back the 2N by virtue of their head-to-head performances.

The only way Elon gets the bye is with a win over UNCG and a Samford loss to Chattanooga.

Regardless the Appalachian State-Western Carolina loser will get College of Charleston in the first round in the first game of the SoCon Tournament and be 5N. Ouch. Big stakes in that one.

No matter what, though, both Samford and Western Carolina have proven to be scrappy, hard-fighting teams. Both teams will be tough in the SoCon Tournament. Both could really use the bye though. This is shaping up to be an interesting weekend in the SoCon North race.

Battle of North vs. South- 2-23-12

Thursday's Games

Chattanooga (N) 55
Furman (S) 65

Elon (N) 45
Davidson (S) 66

at North
North-  12
South- 12

at South
North- 7
South- 19

ANALYSIS

It's hard to believe that at one point the North was hanging right in it with the South. In the last few weeks, the North has regressed, and the South has progressed rapidly. It's been an amazing shift to watch these two divisions go in complete opposite directions in the last few weeks. The South is clearly better. The tournament should feature South dominance.

Double Dribbles- 2-23-12

1) Check out What It All Means for the meaning of each of the games on Thursday night. The two biggest games is Samford's trip to Western Carolina (which got the full treatment in our Monster Game of the Week) and Georgia Southern's trip to Charleston. This game is huge for the Eagles to go on and clinch the bye before Saturday's finale. Can the Eagles come up with the huge road win over the streaky Cougars? The Cougars have been playing really well in recent weeks, outside of the loss at UNCG. Should be a great game.

2) The Citadel has tripled their win total in their last two games. They had won one SoCon game heading into last Saturday's game at Chattanooga. Now they have three wins after their stunning upsets of Chattanooga and Appalachian State. Mike Groselle scored 18 points and had eight rebounds against the Mountaineers. Suddenly, the streaking Mountaineers have to question whether or not they are ready for Asheville, and the Bulldogs have to have confidence that they can win a couple of games in Asheville. That's a stunning turnaround for The Citadel. Now they will try to take out their archrival on Saturday when they take on College of Charleston.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Furman Preview: The Opposite of Road Warriors

What's the opposite of a road warrior?

No, seriously. I don't know. A Road Pacifist?

Whatever it is, the Mocs are trying to avoid that label on Thursday night. Since the Mocs have not won a road game yet this year, they will be looking to avoid the bagel at Furman. Can they avoid being labelled the "Road Pacifist?" Mocs fans sure hope so.

The Paladins are a very good defensive team. That is their calling card. They struggle to score points. When there is a big situation in a game, they struggle to know who to turn to that can make the big shot.

Of course, the Mocs have had similar problems in recent weeks. They do not have an offensive player to turn to in time of trouble. That is the reason they have been struggling. They have really been struggling to make shots. They can't shoot the ball effectively recently. Ricky Taylor, Omar Wattad, and Keegan Bell have shot 11% from three point range recently. Ouch.

Brandon Sebirumbi has scored just thirteen points in the last two games, but he is the Paladins leading scorer at 10.8 points per game. He also leads the team in rebounding with 5.3 rebounds per game, and shoots nearly 52% from the floor.

Charlie Reddick is the Paladins best shooter. He is averaging 10.3 points per game, to go along with 4.7 rebounds per game, and 1.7 assists per game. He shoots about 38% from three point range. He will have to be the one the Mocs focus on from long range to shut down the Paladins outside game.

Richard Brown leads the team in assists with three per game. He is also third on the team in scoring with 8.5 points per game. He also shoots nearly 85% from the free throw line. He did not play in five out of six games earlier this year. He has averaged 7.4 points per game in the five games since he has been playing regularly again. He scored 16 in his first outing, and in the last four, he has averaged just 5.3 points per game.

Bryson Barnes has also been playing well since his return. He is averaging 6.7 points per game and 4.6 rebounds per game. The senior has been an important contributor.

The Paladins, as we know, don't shoot the ball well. They also do not rebound particularly well. The Mocs still are a good rebounding team. This should be an interesting game.

KEYS TO THE GAME

--Rebounding. With Z Mason possibly back from injury, the Mocs desperately need to dominate on the boards against the Paladins.
--Zlovaric vs.Sebirumbi. The two are very similar players. Which player wins the head-to-head match-up may well dictate who wins the game. Zlovaric has not played well on the road several times.
--Senior shooting. Wattad, Taylor, and Bell have been struggling. Will they snap out of it?
--Furman 58, Mocs 55. The Mocs just aren't shooting well enough. Furman wouldn't be able to keep up with a good offensive team, generally speaking. But the Mocs aren't shooting well enough to be able to win this game. Zlovaric hasn't played well on the road. Can Z Mason make a difference? Can Rico White or Dontay Hampton come off the bench and provide a shooting spark? There is a chance to win this game, but it is unlikely given that the Mocs are on their way to being a "Road Pacifist." Unless someone else can come up with a better nickname.....

What It All Means- Thursday Edition

Chattanooga at Furman (7:00)

Chattanooga is in bad need of a win- just to get a win. They have not won on the road all season. They will likely have Z Mason back on Thursday  night, and this could help them inside. Can the Mocs start building confidence heading into the SoCon Tourney? There is no doubt this team has talent, but to have a chance in Asheville, they need to gain some confidence before then.

Furman has a shot at the 4S seed still. They need College of Charleston to lose twice and for the Paladins to win both their games. But it's a shot, and with the Cougars tipping off an hour later on Thursday night, Furman can put a touch of pressure on them with a very solid first half. If the Paladins lose, the Cougars will have clinched 4S and Furman will have clinched 5S.

Samford at Western Carolina (7:00)

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Preview

Samford is currently sitting in second in the North at the moment. A win over Western Carolina combined with an Elon loss to Davidson would clinch the second seed in the North for the Bulldogs. This is a huge night for the Bulldogs.

Western Carolina has a much clearer path to the number two seed after Appalachian State's loss on Wednesday night. If the Catamounts come up with the win, they will need a little bit of help on Saturday, but a win would give them a real shot at getting the bye out of the North. This game is absolutely massive to both teams.

Elon at Davidson (7:00)

Davidson has clinched the 1S. The Wildcats are really playing for momentum heading into the SoCon Tournament, but they are also playing for potential seeding in the NCAA Tournament. They could get as high as 12 or as low as a 15 depending on how poorly things go over the next couple of games. They really need to win to continue to keep their seed as high as possible.

Elon, on the other hand, is desperately trying to get the bye from the North. They are the only team that still has a shot at getting the 1N from UNCG. A loss by Elon would give the division to UNCG. A loss by Elon could also potentially give Samford the number two seed. A win by Elon would put them in great position to get the bye still. Two wins by Elon to wrap up the year would give them the number one overall seed from the North.

Georgia Southern at College of Charleston (8:00 ESPN3)

The Eagles can wrap up the 2S with a win over the Cougars on Thursday night. A loss would leave the door open for Wofford to get the bye. The Eagles just have to win one of their next two games against the Cougars or Davidson to get the bye, or they need Furman to beat Wofford on Saturday night. In other words, Georgia Southern really needs to get this one.

College of Charleston can wrap up the 4S with a win in one of their last two games against Georgia Southern or the suddenly streaking Citadel Bulldogs, or a Furman loss in either of their next two games against Chattanooga and Wofford. The Cougars can clinch that seed with a win. They really just would like to get that seed all wrapped up and put Davidson on the other side of the bracket from them.

SoCon Monster Game of the Week Preview: Samford at Western Carolina

Can the Catamounts win two games and get the bye from the North?

Thanks to Appalachian State's stunning loss to The Citadel on Wednesday night, things just got clearer for the Catamounts trip to the bye. All it takes is Elon losing twice to Davidson and UNCG, and Samford loses to Chattanooga, and Western Carolina wins out against Samford and Appalachian State, they will get the second bye spot.

Amazing.

This team was given up for dead before their February 16th game against The Citadel. They had lost nine out of ten SoCon games at that point. They won two last week against The Citadel and Elon, and suddenly, they right back in the thick of the bye race.

So goes the SoCon North.

Samford on the other hand has won eight of twelve to get to 8-8 in SoCon play. Raijon Kelly and Tyler Hood, the two freshman, have really picked up their play. They have turned this team into a legitmate presence in the SoCon. Drew Windler, the sophmore, leads the team in scoring with 13.7 points per game. He scored just five against Davidson, but has scored in double digits in every other game since December 31 against Maryland. That is fifteen of the last sixteen games that Windler has been in double figures. He scored 20 against Western Carolina back in December when the Bulldogs lost to the Catamounts at home.

Windler is capable of stepping outside and shooting the three. He is also the team's third leading rebounder with 3.8 per game, behind Jeffrey Merritt and Will Cook. Merritt also leads the team in assists. Kelly is second on the team in assists, but has really been the leader of the team for the last several weeks. Hood has averaged five points per game in the last two games, but in the five games prior to that he was averaging 15.0 points per game.

The Catamounts have four guys averaging in double figures. Harouna Mutombo leads the way with 13.0 points per game. He has 5.9 rebounds per game. Trey Sumler is one of the most important players on the team. He is a solid three point shooter when playing well. He needs to be playing well in Asheville. Sumler averages 12.7 points per game, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. Keaton Cole averages 11.9 points per game. Brandon Boggs is averaging 10.4 points per game.

Sumler is the most important player for the Catamounts. He can be a solid contributor, and be a key to the team. They like to play up-tempo, but are undersized and can not rebound a lot. The Bulldogs like to slow it down and they play a precision offense.

KEYS TO THE GAME

--Rebounding. Can the Catamounts play it close on rebounding?
--Sumler. How will he perform in one of his final games at home?
--The freshman. Hood and Kelly have been playing so well for the Bulldogs. Can they keep it up?

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--With so much on the line for the second bye spot, both teams will come out a little tight.
--Windler, Kelly, and Hood will all score double digits, and will approach 50 total points between them.
--Sumler and Mutombo will play well.
--Samford jumps out to an early lead, but Western fights back on their home floor.
--Samford 74, Western Carolina 71. The Bulldogs are playing well, and the Catamounts (outside of the Elon win last Saturday) have not been playing well. The Bulldogs are desperate for this win...and they can taste the second seed from the North. This will be a great game, and I'm looking forward to it.

Battle of North vs. South- 2-22-12

Wednesday's Scores

Appalachian State (N) 51
The Citadel (S) 62

at North
North- 12
South- 12

at South
North- 5
South- 17

Overall
North- 17
South- 29

ANALYSIS

Wow. The Citadel has now pulled off back-to-back upsets of SoCon North teams. The North is so inconsistent and so weak at this point that it is hard to believe that any North team will win in the SoCon Tournament. It is equally hard to understand how we (or many people around the conference) thought that the North would be better than the South this year.

Double Dribbles- 2-22-12

1) Wednesday features just one game- Appalachian State's trip to The Citadel is important to the Mountaineers chances of getting a bye. Check out What It All Means for full coverage of what the  game means to both teams. Ike Butts and Omar Carter were back to starting on Saturday, and as this team seems to be starting to surge a bit, this game could prove critical to their confidence moving forward. The battles will continue to intensify on Thursday.

2) Kevin Giltner of Wofford was the SoCon Player of the Week for last week. He averaged 23 points and 6 rebounds in a win against Elon and a loss to Charleston Southern. While his running mate, Kevin Loesing, was the best player on the floor against UNCG on Tuesday night, the Spartans were without Trevis Simpson, as UNCG is trying to get him ready for the SoCon Tourney. But Giltner has been very good this year and is one of the pleasant surprises in the SoCon this year. As Wofford chases a bye that they could desperately use, they are attempting to win their third consecutive SoCon Tournament. Giltner is a big reason why.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Battle of North vs. South- 2-21-12

Tuesday's Score

Wofford (S) 68
UNC-Greensboro (N) 56

at North
North- 12
South- 12

at South
North- 5
South- 16

Overall
North- 17
South- 28

ANALYSIS

Wow. The South is really putting it to the North at this point. The fact is that the conference is pretty equal 2-11 in this conference. But the South is doing a better job at closing out games. That's just what they do. They will probably do the same thing in the tournament. This has been an impressive season for the South, and a disappointing one for the North.

What It All Means- Wednesday Edition

Appalachian State at The Citadel (7:00)

The Mountaineers have an opportunity to get a bye in the North. They need to win out, and they need Elon to lose both and Samford to lose at least one, or for Elon to lose to UNCG and Samford to lose both for the Mountaineers to get a bye. It mostly depends on winning though. If the Mountaineers can win, they have a real shot.

With the way Isaac Butts has been playing lately, the Mountaineers are a threat in the SoCon Tournament. They really need to get a bye to really get into position to win the tournament. Winning this game means a lot to the Mountaineers chances.

For The Citadel, they  have no shot at getting out of their 6S seed. But that doesn't matter. The Bulldogs won against Chattanooga on Saturday. They have been playing teams relatively close, and feature one of the best players in the SoCon in Mike Groselle. That makes them dangerous in a tournament setting. It would help the Bulldogs to continue to build their confidence by winning a game or two  this week. A Bulldogs win in this one or on Saturday against Charleston would be a big boost to their confidence heading into Asheville.

Should be an interesting game. Winnning on the road is never easy in the SoCon. That makes this game more intriguing.

Double Dribbles- 2-21-12

1) The Spartans and the Terriers face off in one of the more exciting games of the week on Tuesday. Check out "What It All Means" for more information on the importance of the game. I would just like to add to that how important this game is to the Spartans. The Spartans lost to Georgia Southern on Saturday, and need to prove that they are not just a product of the weak North. A win over a quality team like the Terriers would prove that they are for real. This game is a real prove it game for the Spartans.

2) A quick programming note. This week, all week long, we'll be running What It All Means each day that there is a game. Of course, there will be the usual preview of the Monster Game of the Week, which will be Samford-Western Carolina on Thursday. The preview will come late Wednesday night and the recap late Thursday night. Then Sunday, the normal Scanning the SoCon will be up, with a preview of the tournament in Asheville. Then each day next week will have a preview of the tournament. Monday will feature my SoCon Awards. Tuesday will have "If They Win The Tournament" what their NCAA seeds will be feature. Wednesday will have "If They Win The Tournament" what the main reason will be feature. Then beginning Thursday, each night we will have a preview of the next day's games, and recaps of the games that took place that day. Also, I'm planning to have a contest for the tournament for all the fans. Should be a lot of fun, and I hope that everyone gets a lot of enjoyment out of the SoCon Tournament. I hope this can be your Home for SoCon Tournament Coverage.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Why It Matters- Tuesday Edition

Wofford at UNC-Greensboro (7:00)

The Terriers and the Spartans will battle in Greensboro and the game will be available with video on UNCGSpartans.com. This is truly a big game and a great game.

If the Spartans win, they wrap up the number one seed from the North heading into Saturday's showdown at Elon. It also would guarantee that the Terriers will finish third in the South. This is the result that would most clarify the seeding throughout the SoCon.

If the Terriers win, then it puts pressure on Georgia Southern to win at College of Charleston heading into their Davidson game on Saturday. Wofford is down two games to the Eagles, but the Eagles have a very difficult schedule. If Wofford wins here, they would be the favorite at home against Furman on Saturday. If the Eagles lose to the Cougars, it would put pressure on them to beat Davidson on Saturday- never a positive thing to have to do. This is a huge game for the Terriers.

A Spartans loss would open the door for Elon- slightly. The Phoenix head to Davidson on Thursday, and that is probably not a position Elon needs to be in to win the division. But it does open the door. The Spartans can go out and slam the door with a win.

Should be one of the better games of the week. Can't wait for it. Remember to watch for free on UNCGSpartans.com (if you can stand the camera angles, and if not, then listen for free on there).

Double Dribbles- 2-20-12

1) Heading into the final week, only three teams have their spot in the SoCon Tournament wrapped up. Davidson has the 1S wrapped up, while The Citadel has the 6S wrapped up and Chattanooga has the 6N wrapped up. That means that each game in the middle of the week will have some meaning to some team in the game. This week will be a ton of fun for the other nine teams in the SoCon. The best part of this week is that it all starts on Tuesday, as four days this week have SoCon games. For all the SoCon fans out there (and let's face it, if you're reading this, you're a SoCon fan), this week is almost as good as next week's SoCon Tournament.

2) UNCG's loss to Georgia Southern is damaging to the Spartans for a lot of reasons. The first thing is that the Spartans failed to clinch the North Division with the win. The second problem (and the bigger one) is that the Spartans loss has to hurt at least some of their confidence heading into the SoCon Tournament. The Eagles-Spartans game is a potential semifinal match-up. It would be a great match-up, but the Eagles will go in with all the confidence. That's the worst thing that happened to the Spartans.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

SoCon Monster Game of the Week: Samford at Western Carolina

This season has been full of surprises in the SoCon North. In the preseason, the top three teams were expected to be Chattanooga, Western Carolina, and Appalachian State. At this point, those are the bottom three teams in the division at this point. UNCG is just one win from winning the North. Elon was the big favorite heading into SoCon play after their early season play, but have come back to earth.

So as we head into the final week, four teams are in contention for the second bye spot. Elon, Samford, Appalachian State, and Western Carolina all hold out hope for a bye spot. The Catamounts need a lot of help to get there, but they still have a chance. Plus, they get to play Samford and Appalachian State this week, two teams ahead of them in the standings.

The Bulldogs are hoping to clinch a bye spot as well. They are the current number two seed from the North. A win over Western Carolina on Thursday night would eliminate Western Carolina from the race. Should be a very interesting week for all four schools. This Samford-Western Carolina is the biggest midweek game, and with all the possible scenarios, it's too tough to pick out just one game from Saturday. That's why this one gets top billing- even though Davidson-Georgia Southern is probably the better match-up, it means next to nothing.

Scanning the SoCon- Week Sixteen

Before I get started this week, check MocsMania each day before the games, as I will be writing the importance of each game for each team. Some games obviously have more meaning than others, and I'll try to make sure that the importance of each game is emphasized. Should be an exciting week, with games on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Also, be sure to check out SoConFans each day to see updated standings, and brackets.

DavidsonCats- Davidson fan.
MocsMania- Chattanooga fan.
TheSportsArsenal- Citadel fan.
UNCGBasketballFan- UNC-Greensboro fan.

SCHEDULE

Tuesday
Wofford at UNC-Greensboro

Wednesday
Appalachian State at The Citadel

Thursday
Elon at Davidson
Samford at Western Carolina
Chattanooga at Furman
Georgia Southern at College of Charleston (ESPN3)

Saturday
Appalachian State at Western Carolina
College of Charleston at The Citadel (SoCon Sports Network/ESPN3)
Davidson at Georgia Southern
UNC-Greensboro at Elon
Furman at Wofford
Samford at Chattanooga

POWER RANKINGS

1) Davidson 48 (4)
2) Georgia Southern 43
3) UNC-Greensboro 41
4) Wofford 34
5) College of Charleston 31
6) Elon 29
7) Samford 25
8t) Appalachian State 18
8t) Furman 18
10) Western Carolina 13
11) Chattanooga 8
12) The Citadel 4

QUESTIONS

Sum up your team.

DavidsonCats- The Wildcats are now 20-7 on the season and 14-2 in conference games. They've secured the 1S seed. We had two home games this week. The first was a solid victory over Samford. The second was a loss to Wichita State. Cohen and Czerapowicz led the way for the Wildcats this week. Jake had 40 points and Chris had 31. Troubling for Wildcat fans this week was the limited play of De'Mon Brooks. He started out great against Samford, then had some problems with his back. He scored 8 points in his 8 minutes and didn't return. He played against Wichita State and scored 10, but didn't look like himself. The final week of the season has two big games. On Thursday, Matt Matheny and the Phoenix come to Davidson. The Wildcats play at GSU on Saturday. A split would win the division outright.

MocsMania- Hahahahahahhahahaha! Sorry- sometimes you have to laugh to keep from crying. The Mocs loss to Appalachian State was not particularly surprising, but the Mocs very disappointing home loss to The Citadel was not pleasant. There is hope for the younger guys coming up, but this group of seniors have been a disappointment this year. The biggest problem is that the Mocs are simply not making shots right now. The effort is still there. They get a lot of offensive rebounds, and have not been turning the ball over a ton, and they get to the free throw line. But they just aren't making shots. If the Mocs suddenly start making shots in Asheville, they're dangerous. But let's not be completely ridiculous. They haven't been making shots all year. Why would it start now?

TheSportsArsenal- After a disappointing loss at Western Carolina in which the Bulldogs were badly outrebounded (WCU had more offensive boards than The Citadel had total rebounds), the team responded with its first road victory of the season (in its last road game of the season, no less). The victim was Chattanooga, which limited Mike Groselle's offensive opportunities but failed to keep him off the boards (15 rebounds). The Bulldogs made 10 three-pointers (5 from Lawrence Miller) and survived two last-second shots from the Mocs. The Citadel completes the regular season with two home games, against Appalachian State and the College of Charleston. Now that the 11-game losing streak has been broken, perhaps the Bulldogs can pull off another upset prior to the league tournament.

UNCGBasketballFan- UNCG basketball this week has been all about Trevis Simpson. The rumors started circulating on Tuesday night. He was hurt. It was a broken foot and he was done for the year. The season is over. On Wednesday, it was better news. Turf toe and he was day to day. The team rallied and played one of its best games against Charleston. Even though UNCG had a rough second half and fell to the Eagles on Saturday night, Simpson's return was the bigger story for UNCG fans. They will need him back if they are going to make run in Asheville. This upcoming week is huge for the Spartans. UNCG can win the North Division outright and exorcise some bad demons that have been hanging over this program for a few years.

Which game are you most looking forward to this week that does not involve your team?

DavidsonCats- All of the Saturday games should be fun. Everyone plays their travel partner, which makes for some great rivalry games. CofC at Citadel, ASU at WCU, UNCG at Elon, Furman at Wofford all look like fun. But the really interesting game to me is Thursday's GSU at CofC game. I want to see what GSU does in that hostile environment. CofC should have Stitt back and will be getting tuned up for the tournament.

MocsMania-  Samford has every opportunity to get the second bye from the North. They have the tiebreaker over Elon. They battle Western Carolina on Thursday night. A win over the Catamounts coupled with an Elon loss at Davidson and an Appalachian State loss at The Citadel or Western Carolina would give the Bulldogs the bye. A tie with Appalachian State would go against them. Western Carolina, Appalachian State, Elon, and Samford all still have a shot at the second bye from the North. Should make for a wild final week.

TheSportsArsenal- The big games this week are the ones with first-round tourney bye implications -- basically, the remaining games for Wofford, Georgia Southern, Samford, and Elon.

UNCGBasketballFan- Elon at Davidson. An Elon loss or UNCG win would clinch the North Division for the Spartans. I would like to see both this week.

Who is your pick for Coach of the Year?

DavidsonCats- A number of coaches have done really well this year. Mike Young, Charlton Young, Wes Miller, Jimmy Tillette, and Matt Matheny should all get some consideration. I'm going with Bob McKillop. I know that a lot of people picked Davidson to win the division. I thought the Wildcats were a year away and would finish 2nd in the division and behind several of the North teams. Instead, the Wildcats are way out in front in the computer rankings and locked up the 1S seed last week.

MocsMania- To me, there are just five candidates that deserve consideration. Elon's Matt Matheny, UNCG's Wes Miller, Samford's Jimmy Tillette, Georgia Southern's Charlton Young, and Wofford's Mike Young all deserve some recognition. To me there is only one other team that has achieved at their expected level, and that is Davidson, and I expected the Wildcats to lose about three SoCon games preseason. They're pretty close to that right now, so I don't feel like McKillop deserves it. Samford, UNCG, and Georgia Southern all experienced huge turnarounds in SoCon play from their out of conference performance. Elon has really fallen off in the last month. That leaves Mike Young from Wofford. I expected the Terriers to go about 7-11 in SoCon play and be no factor in the SoCon Tournament. As it is, the Terriers are a threat to win their third SoCon Tournament in three years. Young deserves real credit for that.

TheSportsArsenal- I am almost stupefied by UNCG's turnaround under Wes Miller. Interim coach as Coach of the Year? Why not? Bob McKillop is my second choice.

UNCGBasketballFan- I'm going to go with Wes Miller, but I think Mike Young of Wofford is equally deserving.

Who is your pick for Freshman of the Year?

DavidsonCats- Karl Cochran is the best freshman I've seen in the Southern this year. 

MocsMania- Samford's Tyler Hood, and Elon's Austin Hamilton have proven their worth. I think next year, you'll see several of the freshman from Charleston (Adejhi Baru and Anthony Stitt) make big leaps, along with several Mocs players (Rico White and Jared Bryant should be very good next year). But the best freshman this year has been Wofford's Karl Cochran. He will probably be the key to the Terriers in Asheville. Not bad for a freshman.

TheSportsArsenal- I'll go with Wofford's Karl Cochran as Freshman of the Year. It's a tough call. I think you could make arguments for Tyler Hood and Austin Hamilton, too. I suspect Anthony Stitt would have won this award if he had not broken his hand midway through the season.

UNCGBasketballFan- In a less than impressive freshman class, I'll go with Wofford Karl Cochran.

Who is your pick for Player of the Year?

DavidsonCats- I don't think that there is a player who is head and shoulders above the others. When that happens, I think that POY should go to the best player on the best team. And there's the trouble. De'Mon Brooks or Jake Cohen? Both have had spectacular games. Both have disappeared. Both have battled foul trouble and injury. I'll go with Jake Cohen.

MocsMania- Personally, I think the five man All SoCon First Team is easy. Mike Groselle from The Citadel, Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks from Davidson, Trevis Simpson from UNCG, and Eric Ferguson from Georgia Southern. Groselle has not done enough to lift his team out of the cellar in my opinion. It may not be his fault, but it is what it is. That leaves the other four that I think all deserve serious consideration. It is a very tough choice, but I'm going with Simpson. No player has been better than him more consistently, in my opinion. During the last month of the year, he's been the best player by far, I believe. That gives him the edge, but I really can't complain about any of Brooks, Cohen, or Ferguson.

TheSportsArsenal- Jake Cohen was my preseason and midseason pick for Player of the Year. He's still my pick. It can be hard, at least statistically, to separate him from his teammate De'Mon Brooks. Part of my reasoning for selecting Cohen (as opposed to Brooks) is that in most of Davidson's losses, Cohen struggled, and as he struggled so did the team. I think that's an indication of his importance on that squad. The Wildcats were easily the SoCon's best team, and Cohen was their best player. There were other players with outstanding years in the league, of course -- my man Mike Groselle being at the top of that list. Ultimately, though, Cohen is my choice.

UNCGBasketballFan- I think there are three obvious choices for this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Groselle, Trevis Simpson or Jake Cohen win the award. Since this is just my opnion, I'll pick who I think is the best player of the group. That's Trevis Simpson.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

The Citadel 48, Mocs 46

FOUR FACTORS (plus two)

eFG%
Mocs- 34.9%
The Citadel- 57.5%
Advantage- The Citadel

TO%
Mocs- 15.0%
The Citadel- 31.8%
Advantage- Mocs

OR%
Mocs- 34.2%
The Citadel- 27.3%
Advantage- Mocs

FTRate
Mocs- 30.2%
The Citadel- 10.0%
Advantage- Mocs

FT%
Mocs- 56.3%
The Citadel- 50.0%
Advantage- Mocs

3PtRate
Mocs- 39.6%
The Citadel- 52.5%

PLAYER RATER

Overall

1) Jahmal Burroughs 20.9
2) Drazen Zlovaric 18.7
3) Dontay Hampton 16.6
4) Keegan Bell 11.1
5) Ricky Taylor 5.5
6) Lance Stokes 5.0
7) Jared Bryant 3.4
8) Rico White 0.6
9) Omar Wattad -6.1

Per 40

1) Dontay Hampton 31.6
2) Jahmal Burroughs 29.8
3) Drazen Zlovaric 26.6
4) Lance Stokes 18.2
5) Keegan Bell 13.0
6) Jared Bryant 11.3
7) Ricky Taylor 8.4
8) Rico White 1.6
9) Omar Wattad -9.7

ANALYSIS

Wow. That was painful. Very painful. The Mocs were struggling early, but took a one point lead into halftime when Dontay Hampton hit a falling away three at the buzzer. It was a dramatic shot that should have given the Mocs a huge momentum boost heading into the locker room. It didn't really. The Mocs came out and fell back behind pretty quickly. But the Mocs responded and took a seven point lead, 43-36 with just under six minutes left. The Mocs should have been able to put it away from there.

And, like has become the norm, this year, they could not put it away. It ended with Keegan Bell missing two threes, after the team had started the game 3 of 19 from three point range.

There is something interesting here. Look at the Four Factors section above. The Mocs turned the ball over at a significantly lower rate, they came up with a much higher rate of offensive rebounds, and they got to the free throw line more frequently. On top of that, they shot a better percentage from the free throw line (though they hardly were lighting it up). They probably shot too much from three point range considering they only made 3 of 21 from three point range. The Citadel shot over 50% of their shots from three point range. The Mocs really outplayed The Citadel in all facets, except for shooting.

This happened against Appalachian State too. The Mocs are playing an interesting brand of basketball. They are winning a lot of categories that they should be winning, but they aren't making shots at a high rate, and they are allowing their opponents to make too many shots. Will the Mocs ever start shooting better? At this point, maybe not.

Groselle scored eight points and collected 15 rebounds, so he had a good game, but not a great game. The Mocs certainly controlled him, at least scoring-wise. They held him to 3 of 3 shooting from the field. Lawrence Miller did score 15, which was the hot shooter of the night. But the Mocs defense on Groselle was very admirable.

This was painful, and assures the Mocs of the 6N seed. They will be playing in the last game on Friday night at the SoCon Tournament. For a team that started off thinking they were the favorite to win the North....ouch.

GO MOCS!

Battle of North vs. South- 2-18-12

Saturday's Scores

Furman (S) 49
Samford (N) 55

The Citadel (S) 48
Chattanooga (N) 46

UNC-Greensboro (N) 69
Georgia Southern (S) 83

at North
North- 12
South- 11

at South
North- 5
South- 16

Overall
North- 17
South- 27

ANALYSIS
At one point on Saturday, UNCG and Chattanooga both were ahead in their games, and it looked like the score could get down to 25-19, which would have made it look interesting, even though the North still could not have won. In the end, both lost, and the South's lead is up to ten again. The Citadel has beaten two North teams this year...and those are their only SoCon wins. Of course, one of Davidson's two SoCon losses was to a North team.

BracketBusters Review

Wichita State 91, Davidson 74- If this did not make the Wildcats fans nervous about the future, I don't know what game will. Sure, the Shockers are very good, so maybe it should not be a surprising result, and maybe the Wildcats should not be concerned. But the defensive effort at least raises some serious questions about where this team is, and where they are going. They are probably a year away, anyway, from being great. The Wildcats have beaten Kansas this year, so they are capable of better than this, but this result was nothing short of disappointing. The defense has to improve in two weeks to win the SoCon Tourney.

Appalachian State 76, Winthrop 64- Butts is back. He had 15 points and 15 rebounds. That is the second straight really good game for Butts. IF he continues to play like that, and IF he continues to be a threat in the SoCon Tournament, this Mountaineers team could be a major threat in two weeks. This win was nothing special. Winning against Winthrop should not earn endless praise, but the performance of Butts and the 15 point outburst by Carter makes the Mountaineers a very dangerous team. If they're going to play like they were capable of playing from the beginning, this is a very interesting team.

College of Charleston 80, Kent State 73- I give up on ever understanding the Cougars. Nori Johnson poured in 27 points, Antwaine Wiggins had 17, and Trent Wiedeman had 14.  They only played seven men. This was the game I most expected the SoCon to lose on Saturday. But it didn't happen. For that reason, the Cougars, too, have established that they are a real threat to win the SoCon Tournament. They are not playing a deep enough bench to do it, but they are a dangerous team. The Flashes couldn't win a home BracketBusters game against an injured team. This could really hurt the Flashes seed in the NCAA Tournament if they win the MAC Tournament.

Charleston Southern 77, Wofford 59- Kevin Giltner and Brad Loesing played 37 and 35 minutes, so they did not exactly get rested up. They combined for 34 points. They were the only players in double digits for the Terriers. Karl Cochran struggled. When he struggles, the Terriers are just not as good. They need Cochran badly to show up in two weeks at the SoCon Tournament. Wofford committed 18 turnovers to the Buccaneers eight. That was a major difference too.

The Citadel Preview: The Fighting Groselle's

Mike Groselle is the second leading scorer in the SoCon with 16.9 points per game. Mike Groselle is the leading rebounder in the SoCon with 9.3 rebounds per game. Mike Groselle should be one of the most talked about players in the SoCon.

Unfortunately for him, he plays on The Citadel, a team that has just one SoCon win on the year, and just two D1 wins on the year. The Bulldogs have lost eleven straight, though they have not been getting killed. Against Western Carolina on Thursday, they lost by 17. Prior to that, the Bulldogs had not lost by more than 11 in seven games, when they lost to Davidson 80-51 on January 21. So the Bulldogs are playing teams close, but not able to close the deal.

Sound familiar?

The Bulldogs start with Groselle. He should certainly be on most people's All SoCon team, and will probably get some votes for the Player of the Year. He's the only player to score more than 8.3 points per game and 3.2 rebounds per game. He is 6-8 and the tallest player. He is also the third leading player in assists on the team with 1.9 assists per game. He shoots 58.4% from the floor.

DeVontae Wright and Ashton Moore are both pretty good players. Moore is averaging 8.3 points per game and Wright is averaging 8.2 points per game and leads the team with 2.5 assists per game. Marshall Harris is tied with Wright for assists lead.

The Citadel was completely dominated on the boards by Western Carolina on Thursday night. They surrendered 28 offensive rebounds to the Catmounts, while they only got 27 total rebounds. Groselle scored 17 points, while Lawrence Miller scored 14. He scored four total points in the previous two games. But in the two games prior to that he had scored fifteen apiece. He had only three double digit games prior to that. In other words, Miller is hot right now. He can be a major help to Groselle.

The Mocs Drazen Zlovaric should be an interesting match-up for Groselle. He is going to have a tough time guarding Groselle one on one. So, this might be a perfect game to use the "Fire" defense that so many Moc fans loathe. The only other option is to let Groselle get his points, and stop everyone else. Not sure which one is the better choice.

Where will the Mocs be mentally? After benching all five starters for the last fifteen minutes of the game against Appalachian State and watching the Mocs have some success, what happens now? Surely, Omar Wattad, Keegan Bell, Ricky Taylor, and Jahmal Burroughs along with Zlovaric will get more minutes. But Dontay Hampton and Rico White played so well against the Mountaineers, they have earned a lot more playing time.  Jared Bryant continued to show why he can be a solid contributor. Finally, will Z Mason be back? He was supposed to play Wednesday, but did not. He should be back for this one. Hampton also had some breathing issues after the Appalachian State game, but is rumored to be fine and will play on Saturday night.

KEYS TO THE GAME

--Rebounding. Western Carolina dominated the boards on The Citadel. The Mocs (with Burroughs, Zlovaric, Bryant, and Mason all playing) did the same thing to the Catamounts earlier this year. That means the Mocs should completely dominate the boards on these Bulldogs if those guys are healthy. If the Mocs do that, they should be able to win.
--Controlling Groselle or shutting down everyone else? I'm not sure what the proper strategy is in this situation. I guarantee that Fire will implemented in this game, because other than Ike Butts when he is playing well and Jake Cohen, there is no one else in the SoCon that deserves this treatment more than Groselle, and they may deserve less because of the quality of their surrounding talent. Could Groselle be shut down? Possibly, but will someone else (such as Miller) catch fire? If so, the Mocs could get burned by Fire again.
--Zlovaric on offense. If he can make Groselle work on the defensive end, that would be good for the Mocs. It would possibly wear him out a bit on that end of the floor. Groselle has not had to guard too many guys as offensively active as Zlovaric this year.
--Mental state of both teams. How will these two teams respond to what may have been their worst performances of the year in their last games (to teams not named Davidson)? Which team comes in ready to play? Does the Mocs benching their starters for the last fifteen minutes change their attitude? Does the Bulldogs playing in Cullowhee on Thursday and then turning around and coming to Chattanooga on Saturday?

LEAD PIPE LOCK PREDICTIONS THAT ARE SURE TO GO WRONG

--The Mocs will dominate the boards.
--Groselle will score 20 points.
--There will be at least one other Bulldog in double digits.
--The Mocs starters will respond well and play hard.
--Mocs 76, The Citadel 69. The Mocs will play hard. Assuming they do that, they will win this game. They should win this game. Burroughs, Zlovaric, and Bryant need to have huge games, and if they do, the Mocs will win.

GO MOCS!